The miner and trader’s own sourced copper production fell 4% to 705,200 metric tons, while its own sourced cobalt output fell 18% to 26,500 tons.

Glencore left its overall 2024 outlook for copper, a metal needed for energy transition applications, unchanged at between 950,000 and 1.01 million tons.

Its trading division, whose profit hit a record $6.4 billion in 2022, includes coal, oil, liquefied natural gas and related products, as well as metals.

Glencore expects its full-year marketing earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) in the $3 billion-$3.5 billion range, around the top-end of the firm’s long-term forecast range of $2.2 billion to $3.2 billion.

The miner has kept its coal business after concluding the purchase of Teck Resources’ coking coal assets and securing backing from a majority of its investors who see lucrative earnings from the fossil fuel.

CEO Gary Nagle in August said the company could acquire more steelmaking coal.

It is one of the largest producers and exporters of thermal coal, with an expected output of between 98 million and 106 million tons this year. It produced 73.1 million tons so far, 7% lower than year-ago levels.

Its 2024 steelmaking coal production should increase to 19 million-21 million tons post-acquisition, from 7 million-9 million tons.

(Reporting by Clara Denina; Editing by Jason Neely and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

The study, published just a day after the United Nations warned the world is falling “miles short” of what’s needed to curb devastating global warming, indicates that an investment of $78 trillion will be needed to change this course and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations committed to limiting global warming to “well below” two degrees Celsius above the average temperatures recorded between 1850 and 1900, aiming for a target of 1.5 degrees Celsius if feasible. Efforts to date have not succeeded in meeting this challenge, the annual “Energy Transition Outlook” from Wood Mackenzie shows.

Unlike the UN pessimistic outlook, the Scottish consultancy believes that while major obstacles hinder short-term targets, particularly for 2030, a 2050 net-zero goal remains feasible. Immediate and coordinated global action would be necessary, WoodMac warns.

Threats to climate progress

A series of global crises, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, escalating Middle East violence, rising populism in Europe and global trade tensions with China, are undermining the pace of the energy transition, Wood Mackenzie’s vice president head of scenarios and technologies, Prakash Sharma, said. 

He explains that without urgent policy changes and enhanced investment, a warming trajectory of 2.5˚C to 3˚C could become inevitable.

“We are under no illusion as to how challenging the net zero transition will be, given the fact that fossil fuels are widely available, cost-competitive and deeply embedded in today’s complex energy system,” Sharma added. “A price on carbon maybe the most effective way to drive emissions reduction but it’s hard to see it coming together in a polarized environment.”

Key investment are needed across several critical areas, according to WoodMac. As renewable energy sources grow, substantial upgrades to power supply and grid infrastructure are essential to meet the growing demand. Additionally, the need for critical minerals, such as lithium, nickel and cobalt, is projected to increase five- to ten-fold by 2050, as demand for batteries and other technologies essential for the energy transition continues to grow. 

WoodMac sees the need to back the development of emerging technologies, including carbon capture, low-carbon hydrogen, and nuclear power, are vital for facilitating the shift towards cleaner energy sources.

Securing this funding won’t be easy, the consultants noted. “Doubling annual investments to $3.5 trillion by 2050 will be necessary in our net zero scenario,” Sharma said, adding that it will require unprecedented policy coordination globally.

The role of electrification

The electrification of energy systems will play a pivotal role in decarbonization. Transitioning from fossil fuels to electric power, Wood Mackenzie forecasts that electricity’s share of global energy demand will increase from 23% to 35% by 2050 in a base case, and could reach as high as 55% in a net-zero scenario.

Wood Mackenzie’s analysis reveals that global energy demand is set to rise by 14% by 2050. Emerging economies are projected to see even steeper growth at 45%, driven by rising populations and economic advancement. 

In parallel, data centres, electric vehicles, and AI are emerging as new drivers of electricity consumption, with AI-related energy use alone expected to increase from 500 TWh in 2023 to up to 4,500 TWh by 2050.

Including renewable energy source to meet electrifications demand could help reduce emissions, the report says.

According to Wood Mackenzie, solar and wind currently account for 17% of the global power supply, and renewables capacity is expected to double by 2030 in its base case. Yet, this increase still falls short of the COP28 commitment made in 2023 to triple renewables by 2030.

Transition or coexistence?

While nuclear energy holds promise for providing consistent, zero-carbon electricity, its high cost and frequent project delays pose significant challenges. WoodMac says that nuclear power could play a more significant role as it has attracted interest, particularly from tech companies looking to power data centres sustainably.

While fossil fuels is expected to plateau in the 2040s before beginning a gradual decline, Wood Mackenzie predicts that the high capital costs of low-carbon technologies coupled with strong demand for energy, will require the continued use of oil and gas in the near term.

Wood Mackenzie says to meet climate targets there will be necessary that nations gathered at the COP29 meeting in Azerbaijan next month finalize Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. This section focuses on carbon markets and aims to establish a new climate finance goal to replace the previous annual target of $100 billion, which experts consider insufficient.

The consultancy’s report echoes concerns included in a UN Environment Programme (UNEP) study released last week. The document says the next decade is crucial in the battle against climate change, adding that failing to act now will jeopardize any chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. According to the UN body, the current rate of climate action could lead to a catastrophic increase of 3.1 degrees Celsius this century. 

“Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned.

Even if all existing commitments to reduce emissions are fulfilled, global temperatures would still rise by 2.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, experts agree.

Australia is the world’s biggest supplier of seaborne iron ore, accounting for around half of global supply. But the Pilbara grades dug up from the country’s west are generally regarded as too low to be turned into steel without using coal.

That means as steel makers decarbonize, they are turning elsewhere for iron ore, which could hit Australia’s top export earner, Otranto said at the IMARC conference in Sydney.

“The message is, take the opportunity,” he said on the sidelines of the conference. “We have an abundance of solar and wind… so the logical next step is to get into downstream industries.”

Competition is growing from new green steel projects – made without the use of fossil fuels – in the Middle East, while Guinea’s giant Simandou iron ore mine is set to start up next year, he said.

“That’s a high grade deposit going straight into the steel mills in China,” he said of Simandou.

“Let’s not sit here with our head in the sand thinking it’s not going to happen again.”

Australia had the opportunity to help build Indonesia’s nickel industry but did not anticipate China’s speed and technical innovation, and its domestic industry suffered as a result.

“The Chinese … built the biggest nickel industry the world has ever seen and … took out an entire market sector in four years,” he said, referring to the transformation of Indonesia’s nickel industry into the world’s dominant supplier, driven by Chinese stainless steel giant Tsingshan.

That flood of supply has hammered nickel producers around the globe, including in New Caledonia and Australia.

Otranto said a similar scenario could play out in Australia’s iron ore industry which, along with the Australian government, was underplaying the threat to the sector and that government and industry need to collaborate to lower power costs in particular.

“We have to bring in Chinese manufacturing of solar panels and wind turbines, because they’re doing it better than anyone else,” he said. Automating robots for installation would cut labour costs to help make green iron production economic, he said.

The world needs Australia’s iron ore to sustain steel production so answers must be found.

“We cannot lose the opportunity to place the 600 to 700 million tons of iron ore that Australia ships out,” he said. “So we have to work unbelievably hard, even harder than we’re doing now.”

The world’s fourth largest iron ore miner, Fortescue will use green hydrogen from solar farms at its Christmas Creek operations to start producing 2,000 tons per year of green iron using hydrogen next year.

On Monday, Brazilian miner Vale, the world’s second biggest iron ore producer, said it had partnered with China’s Jinnan Steel Group to build an iron ore beneficiation plant in Oman to make high quality pellet.

(By Melanie Burton; Editing by Sonali Paul and Lincoln Feast)

The move sets a precedent for future private-sector missions beyond Earth’s orbit as it gives AstroForge both approval for their upcoming mission, Odin, and the green light to establish communication networks with their ground partners

The Odin mission, to be launched in January 2025, is part of the firm’s ambitious plan to harvest precious metals from asteroids, offering an alternative to Earth’s dwindling critical resources.

This is not the first launch for the company. In April 2023, AstroForge launched a small cubesat called Brokkr-1 on a SpaceX Transporter flight, but was unable to transmit the necessary commands to demonstrate its space-based minerals and metals refining technology. 

The company also ran into issues when preparing a second mission, originally called Brokkr-2 and later renamed Odin, which is now ready to be launched.

A third attempt is planned for late 2025, when the company will launch Vestri. The craft  is about twice the size of Odin and is designed to return to the targeted metallic asteroid and dock with it by using magnets, as it is expected the asteroid will be rich in iron.

If successful, AstroForge plans to send a fourth mission, which will focus on extracting and refining asteroids’ metals before returning to Earth.

The Huntington Beach, California-based company is the most advanced private asteroid miner to date. Two previous companies, Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries emerged about a decade ago, but neither company arrived on any asteroids and were eventually acquired and rerouted to other endeavours.

The total stock market valuation of the world’s biggest mining companies is up a fairly modest 8% year to end-September and despite the good run is still $240 billion below the peak hit in the second quarter of 2022. And judging by the performance of the top tier in the final quarter (BHP down 8% QTD, Rio Tinto –5%, Vale –3%, Glencore –5%, Newmont –9%, Zijin –5%, Freeport –7%) the gap won’t be closing anytime soon.

In contrast, Nvidia — the maker of chips highly prized for artificial intelligence (AI) computing — is up nearly 200% so far this year (and 2,600% over five). When comparing the graphics card maker’s stock valuation to the mining industry’s collective worth, it’s difficult not to wonder if something is not awry with how global investors appraise the industrial economy.  

Should Nvidia (or Microsoft or Apple for that matter) be worth more than twice the top 50 miners? Outside the top 50 the average market cap quickly shrinks to the low teens so Nvidia is in fact worth more than the entire listed mining industry. 

Even when extending the top 50 into metals and energy –  steel, aluminium and electricity companies often operate their own mines – Nvidia can still throw shade. BHP does not even crack the top 100 most valuable companies in the world and is worth less than Booking.com, and Temu and Zara’s owners, none of which can exactly be called the building blocks of the global economy. 

Nvidia briefly surpassed Apple on Friday to become the world’s most valuable company. Its market capitalization is approximately $3.5 trillion, just below Apple’s, which remains the highest-valued firm globally.

The company said on Monday that its full-year nickel production forecast was now at 196,000-204,000 metric tons, up from 184,000-194,000 tons previously. The new target was still below the 209,000 tons produced in 2023.

The company said it had produced 146,210 tons of nickel in the first nine months of the year as the furnace at its flagship Nadezhda smelter went back into operation after major repairs in August.

As a result, the company reported a 16% quarter-on-quarter increase in nickel output in the third quarter.

Its palladium production guidance was increased to between 2.624 million and 2.728 million ounces, up from 2.296 million to 2.451 million ounces previously. Palladium output was up 1% year on year at 2.156 million ounces in the nine months of 2024.

Nornickel’s operations director Alexander Popov said the company increased nine-month copper and palladium output year on year while platinum and nickel were unchanged.

The “positive dynamics” were attributed to improved operational efficiency and increase mined ore, he said in a statement.

Nornickel is not subject to direct Western sanctions, though sanctions against Moscow have prompted some Western producers to avoid buying Russian metal and complicated payments, leading Nornickel to redirect sales to Asia.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova and Gleb Bryanski; Editing by David Goodman)

For the son of a wealthy mining mogul, this was something of an initiation. He spent the summer hunting for gold — shadowing grizzled prospectors and geologists, bushwhacking through the Boréal forest. He even dug holes for where the outhouses would go. “I just wanted to be kept busy,” he said.

Adam, 37, is now the chairman of Lundin Mining Corp., a publicly traded Canadian metals producer. His younger brother, Jack, 34, is the company’s chief executive officer. The Lundin boys, as they are known in Canada’s tight-knit mining circles, are the two middle sons of Lukas Lundin, a hard-driving magnate who inherited the business from his own father.

As the world races to build more clean energy products, many of the key companies that control vast quantities of critical minerals are family-owned, and the Lundin boys are part of a new generation taking the reins. They were groomed to inherit a commodities empire — copper, nickel and zinc mines across the Americas and Europe — along with a family fortune estimated at $7.3 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News.

But unlike other mining families, the Lundins aren’t controlling shareholders. Together with their two brothers, Will and Harry, they own a collective 15.4% of Lundin Mining, making them the firm’s second-biggest shareholder.

“We’re doing this because we want to,” said Jack. “Not because we have to.”

In their twenties, Jack and Adam were put in charge of smaller outfits to test their business savvy. Jack was tasked with managing Lundin Gold Inc.’s project in Ecuador, while Adam steered Filo Corp., a copper project in Argentina. They were each appointed to boards of other Lundin-owned companies before eventually joining the upper ranks at Lundin Mining. Now, they rise at 5 a.m. most days to track European commodities markets.

Through a family trust managed out of Geneva, Switzerland, the Lundins are also top shareholders in nearly a dozen other commodities companies, including Botswana-based diamond driller Lucara Diamond Corp. and ShaMaran Petroleum Corp., an oil explorer with assets in Iraq.

Few in the industry were surprised to see Adam and Jack take over from their father, but it happened sooner than expected, after Lukas died suddenly of brain cancer in 2022. Two years later, they’re betting big on Argentina, where they’ve secured access to vast deposits of copper — putting them on the front lines of a frenzy for natural resources in the inflation-wracked country.

“As the world moves to electrify, we’re all going to need a lot more copper,” Adam said from his Vancouver office, overlooking the city’s jagged Pacific coastline. “We can play a big role in that.”

The bet on a metal in a country that has yet to really produce much of it is in keeping with tradition: The Lundins built a reputation for going to places that few others were comfortable venturing.

Adolf H. Lundin was a Swedish wildcatter who made a fortune from the 1976 discovery of a natural gas field off the coast of Qatar. In Europe’s staid commodities world, his swashbuckling business ventures brought him fame and controversy. He invested in gold projects in apartheid-era South Africa and oil drilling in Sudan while the country was ravaged by civil war. (To this day, the family’s defunct petroleum business is the subject of Sweden’s largest-ever criminal prosecution, concerning human rights abuses in Sudan.)

He was an “inveterate gambler, who always believed the riches were right around the corner,” said Pierre Lassonde, a Canadian mining financier and co-founder of Franco-Nevada Corp. “Drank his own liquor plenty,” he added.

Lukas’s brother Ian went into oil, exploring for petroleum sources in Africa and Europe. Lukas, meanwhile, helped expand the family business into mining through dealmaking that netted a sprawling portfolio of mines. He resettled to Canada in the late ‘80s, as Vancouver became a hub for mineral explorers and developers.

Appetite for adventure runs in the family — Lukas was a four-time motorcycle competitor in the Dakar rally and climbed Mount Kilimanjaro twice. Within months of his death, Jack climbed Mount Everest to pay homage. Earlier this year, he completed a 75-mile, eight-hour cycling race through British Columbia.

To build a copper mining district in Argentina, the brothers will have to navigate the raucous politics and economic vagaries of one of the more volatile countries in South America. The country’s new president, Javier Milei, has promised to ramp up resource extraction to help grow the economy.

“It’s a big bet,” said Martin Pradier, an analyst at Veritas Investment Research Corp. “They’re not just betting on this government. They’re betting on the next 10 governments.”

Mine-building is notoriously challenging, rife with uncertainty and cost overruns. Nowadays, most miners would rather acquire already-built operations than take on the risks of constructing new ones. The Argentine projects are located in the San Juan Province, a largely depopulated region defined by the Andes mountains and vast, arid desert. There are few roads and sparse access to the electrical grid. “You have to build roads, you have to get people to live at the base of the mine,” said Pradier.

The brothers have sought to manage risk with outside help. In July, they recruited BHP Group Ltd., the world’s top mining firm, to take 50% ownership of the Argentine project, forming a joint venture to build the district.

After Milei’s inauguration in January, Jack and Adam flew to Buenos Aires to meet with the new president and discuss the resource sector’s role in stabilizing a country rife with inflation and investor apprehension.

They emerged from the meeting with a selfie — Jack and Adam on either side of the new president, giving two thumbs up. And a few months later, Milei unveiled a sweeping package of tax, currency and customs benefits for major investors.

“It’s the best window I’ve seen in Argentina — ever,” said Adam.

(By Jacob Lorinc)

BHP walked away from a $49 billion bid to acquire Anglo in May after it was rebuffed three times. With a six-month block on another approach set to expire at the end of November, a deal is again under scrutiny.

Anglo was able to convince investors during BHP’s approach that it had a better plan to grow value, focused on shedding underperforming platinum, diamonds and coal to focus on copper, a metal key for the energy transition.

If that succeeds, the higher value that comes with copper assets may help keep Anglo safe, one portfolio manager at a Cape Town fund manager said.

But the longer it takes to achieve a transformation, the more likely it is that investors will be tempted by another bid.

Investors with shares in both companies told Reuters that even though they expect BHP CEO Mike Henry to renew his pursuit for the London-listed miner, the timing and even the rationale for such an approach could be shaped by whether Anglo can grow beyond the grasp of cash-rich rivals.

Anglo CEO Duncan Wanblad is rushing to sell coking coal mines in Australia and nickel assets in Brazil while spinning off platinum mines in South Africa. The company is also weighing whether to sell or separately list its De Beers diamonds unit.

Anglo’s world-class copper assets in Latin America are the prize for rivals seeking increased exposure to copper.

But its copper mines are still dogged by operational issues. On Thursday, it said copper output declined 13% in the third quarter, though the company remains on course to meet this year’s output guidance of 730,000 tons to 790,000 tons.

Anglo declined to comment. BHP did not respond to emailed requests for comment.

Choosing the moment

Anglo’s shares rose as much as 4.3% in London on Monday amid a broad uptick in mining stocks, but have shed most of the premium they added in the wake of BHP’s approach.

If Anglo’s valuation takes time to catch up with its restructuring, it could present a golden opportunity for BHP.

According to a source at a top investor in both companies, a restructured Anglo creates more value for BHP, which is still wary of the risks associated with absorbing South African assets.

“If I was BHP, I would say let Anglo do most of the heavy lifting, the restructuring it promised it will do by end 2025,” the source told Reuters.

Any potential new bid should come when some of the restructuring is expected to completed by June or July next year, they added.

BHP may have to wait until Anglo spins off its platinum business by mid-2025 to make the deal less complex, UBS Group analysts said. “We expect Anglo to re-rate as the group simplifies,” UBS said. “If not, we see potential for another takeover approach.”

Christiaan Bothma, an investment analyst at Johannesburg-based money manager Sanlam Private Wealth, which has shares in both companies, told Reuters it would “make sense” for BHP to wait for Anglo to do the asset separation for them.

But he added: “The counter argument to this would be if they wait (too) long, Anglo’s valuation premium may be too high or iron ore prices too low (BHP’s primary currency).”

(By Felix Njini; Editing by Veronica Brown, Pratima Desai and Jan Harvey)

In combined battery capacity deployed – a better indicator of battery materials demand than unit sales alone – the global electric car market expanded by 22% so far this year. 

In total, 505.6 GWh of fresh battery power hit the globe’s roads from January through August, according to data from Toronto-based EV supply chain research firm Adamas Intelligence.

The robust growth rate also comes despite a noticeable swing towards hybrid vehicles, which have inherently smaller batteries and therefore contained metal. 

The combined battery capacity of plug-in hybrid vehicles steered onto roads globally for the first time this year is up 70% versus a must more sedate pace for full electric passenger vehicles of 15%. At the same time the average battery capacity of plug-ins is also rising, up 14% this year to 23kWh, more than a third of the average full electric vehicle.

For miners supplying the EV battery industry, the news remain negative: when pairing metals demand with prices in the supply chain, declines this year are brutal. 

The latest data based on EV registrations in over 110 countries show the sales weighted average monthly dollar value of the lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite contained in the batteries​​ of the average EV based on global end-user registrations, battery capacity and chemistries.

Put it all together and the raw materials bill for the average EV is now down to $537 compared to $1,342 in August 2023 and a monthly peak of more than $1,900 at the beginning of last year, according to Adamas Intelligence analysis.      

The downtrend is led by lithium where the sales weighted average value per EV is down 75% over the past year to $236 and cobalt, which at little over $46 is 42% below the value reached in August 2023. Manganese is the only battery raw material in positive territory this year, up 3% but the raw material is also down 8% compare to the same month last year. For anode material, graphite loadings and values have held mostly steady at just under $26 per average EV.

The value of nickel in the average EV battery is down 26% as LFP battery chemistries continue to take global markets. LFP batteries represented 42% of the global total in terms of capacity deployed in GWh in August.

That compares to a 32% share during the same month last year, more than offsetting the long-running trend towards high-nickel cathodes, and the growing popularity of NCM batteries for larger plug-in and range-extending hybrids, where the energy density of nickel-based cathodes makes more sense given the weight of these vehicles. 

For a fuller analysis of the battery metals market check out the latest Northern Miner print and digital editions. 

* Frik Els is Editor at Large for MINING.COM and Head of Adamas Inside, providing news and analysis based on Adamas Intelligence data.

The company reported nearly 100 metres of copper and nickel mineralization from its first drill hole at the Boulderdash target in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, with a grade of 1.6% copper equivalent, starting at a depth of 9.1 metres. It now plans to add more drill holes for further evaluation.

“The distribution and abundance of magmatic sulphides intersected in the initial drilling at Boulderdash bear a striking resemblance to the early drill results from the Eagle deposit,” Dean Rossell, Talon’s chief exploration geologist said in a news release.

Rossell is credited with discovering the Eagle deposit.

“In 2001, one of the first drill holes intersected a long interval of disseminated sulphides with minor net-textured sulphides, which inspired us to drill the discovery hole in 2002, where we intersected 84.2 metres of high-grade massive sulphide mineralization,” Rossell said.

“US leaders are laser-focused on US dependency on critical minerals produced by foreign entities of concern. The discovery of a potential new domestic resource of copper and nickel is very timely,” CEO Henri van Rooyen added.

Talon’s mineral exploration activities in Michigan and Minnesota are funded by the US Department of Defense, which announced in 2023 that it would provide $20.6 million for accelerated exploration in both states.

Cantor Fitzgerald mining analyst Matthew O’Keefe said in a note to clients that the hole was “impressive” and could be indicative of a larger system, similar to Eagle.

In 2022, Talon entered into an option and earn-in agreement with UPX Minerals to acquire up to 80% ownership in mineral rights over a 1,620-sq.-km land package in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. The first hole drilled at Boulderdash is part of this land package.

By 11 a.m. EDT in Toronto, Talon Metals’ shares were up 11%. The Canadian miner has a market capitalization of C$93.5 million ($67.5m).

CEO Tristan Pascall said in a conference call to discuss third quarter results, that the company was open to partnerships, particularly in Zambia, as long as they serve the interests of the business, the country’s government and all stakeholders.

While the names of the firms involved are yet to be disclosed, media reports last week suggested that Saudi Arabia’s Manara Minerals was the one close to a deal to acquire a minority stake in the Canadian miner assets.

The potential deal with Manara, estimated to be worth between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, has garnered attention due to the increasing demand for copper and nickel, considered essential to the energy transition.

The assets could have also attracted interest from Chinese companies such as Zijin Mining Group Co. and Jiangxi Copper Co., which is First Quantum’s second-biggest shareholder, according to market rumours.

For First Quantum, a stake sale in its Kansanshi and Sentinel copper mines would provide much-needed relief from its mounting debt, which escalated after the Panama government ordered the shutdown of its flagship Cobre Panama mine.

The Canadian company is awaiting a decision on the mine’s future and seeking permission from Panama’s new government to export 121,000 tonnes of copper concentrate stockpiled at the shuttered mine. This approval is crucial for the company, which is spending between $11 million and $13 million per month to maintain the mine, Pascall said.

The executive cautioned that while President Mulino said his government intends to address the issue in early 2025, without significant progress in the coming months, cost-cutting measures, including workforce reductions, may become necessary.

(With files from Reuters, Bloomberg)

The move reflects the growing realization in Washington that efforts to combat climate change will be moot unless the US boosts its production of lithium, cobalt, and other critical minerals and curbs reliance on China and other overseas rivals.

Washington last December issued proposed rules for manufacturers to access the so-called 45X tax credit, created by President Joe Biden’s 2022 climate change law, the Inflation Reduction Act, which offers a 10% production credit for US-made products. Those draft rules excluded raw materials from the production costs in favor of processing. For example, the mining of lithium would not have received the credit, but the processing of that lithium into a form usable to build a battery would.

The mining industry cried foul, noting that processing is impossible without first extracting a mineral.

Citing “feedback from stakeholders,” the Treasury Department on Thursday reversed itself, saying that the “material costs and extraction costs” would be eligible for the tax credit under the final 45X rules, “provided certain conditions are met.”

“The Biden-Harris administration understands how important onshoring the production of critical minerals is to developing secure, clean energy supply chains,” Wally Adeyemo, the deputy Treasury secretary, told reporters on a call. “This will not only help incentivize additional mining, but will mean that mining that already exists is more profitable and they can make greater investments in those mines,” he said.

The final rules stipulate that the credit can only be obtained once an “eligible component” is created, essentially favoring mining companies that own processing facilities. The mining would have to take place in the United States, officials said.

“The action of extraction alone does not produce an eligible component,” the Treasury Department said in the final rule, which ran to 177 pages.

That may help Sibanye Stillwater, which mines and processes palladium in Montana and had pushed for the 45X expansion to offset cutthroat Russian competition. But several proposed US nickel mines, for example, would not be eligible because the US does not yet have a nickel smelter.

Ali Zaidi, the White House national climate adviser, gave the hypothetical example of a lithium hydroxide processor that also runs a lithium mine. That company would be eligible for a 10% per metric ton credit for the mining and another 10% per metric ton credit for the processing, he said.

“This is absolutely a game changer for our ability to lean into mineral security,” said Zaidi.

The credits would begin phasing out in 2030 and end after 2032 for clean energy components. Critical mineral credits will not phase out.

The National Mining Association, whose members include Lithium Americas, ioneer Ltd and other mining companies that do not process metals, said it appreciated the updated rules but was disappointed they were linked to processing.

“Treasury’s decision to limit the credit to those producers who also refine materials will prevent many important projects from benefiting from the credit as Congress intended,” said Rich Nolan, the trade group’s CEO.

(By Nichola Groom, Ernest Scheyder and Timothy Gardner; Editing by Leslie Adler)

Anglo said its copper output fell 13% in the July to September quarter, while rough diamond production decreased by 25% on cuts due to prolonged lower demand.

Its De Beers diamonds unit is exploring options for further output cuts in future, Anglo said.

For the first nine months of 2024, copper output fell 4% to 575,000 tons and diamond production was down 21% at 18.9 million carats.

Anglo still expects to produce 730,000-790,000 tons of copper and 23-26 million carats of rough diamonds this year, even as it assesses additional production cuts going forward.

Its shares, which have risen around 18% this year, opened up 2.2%.

The mining giant is restructuring its business to mainly focus on energy transition metal copper after fending off a $49 billion takeover offer from bigger rival BHP Group in May.

Copper will make up 60% of Anglo’s business after it sells its Australian steelmaking coal assets and nickel mines in Brazil, as well as divesting De Beers and its platinum business Amplats in South Africa.

Apart from its copper assets in Chile, Anglo will also retain iron ore mines in South Africa and Brazil, as well as the Woodsmith fertilizer project in the United Kingdom, which it has now slowed down.

Anglo said steelmaking coal’s production fell by 6% in the third quarter after shutting its Grosvenor mine in Queensland due to an underground fire.

The London-listed miner, the world’s third-largest exporter of metallurgical coal, lowered its yearly production guidance to 14-15.5 million tons from a previous forecast of 15-17 million.

Anglo said the final round of bidders for the coal assets was in place and it expected to announce the sale agreement within months.

(By Clara Denina and Felix Njini; Editing by Stephen Coates and Mark Potter)

Eramet used available liquidity for the $699 million purchase of Tsingshan’s 49.9% stake, it said.

The Centenario project, due to start production in the coming weeks, was attractive despite a drop in lithium prices and full ownership would let Eramet decide how to pursue a planned second production facility, Chair and CEO Christel Bories told reporters on a call.

Eramet shares rose 6% in early trade, recovering some of their steep losses since last week when the group’s production target cuts pushed the shares to three-year lows.

Metals group Tsingshan built the initial processing plant at Eramet’s lithium mine, with a target to reach annual capacity of 24,000 metric tons by mid-2025.

Tsingshan remains Eramet’s partner in Indonesia where they operate a nickel mine.

In a separate third-quarter sales statement, Eramet also announced the suspension of a project to develop recycling of electric vehicle batteries in France, citing slow development of the market in Europe.

The group cut its capital investment target for this year, with cost control measures including the suspension of its mine production in Gabon announced last week in response to a downturn in the manganese market.

The reduced spending partly reflected a delay at the second plant in Argentina, with a decision expected next year and construction potentially starting in 2026, chief financial officer Nicolas Carre told an analyst call. Construction had been expected to begin next year.

Bories said the manganese market, hit by an influx of low-grade ore from South African and reduced demand from Chinese steel makers, was expected to return to normal conditions during the fourth quarter.

The group did not update its projection for full-year adjusted earnings before interest, tax, debt and amortization (EBITDA), with Carre telling reporters metal price forecasts have been too volatile.

Eramet reiterated its expectation for higher EBITDA in the second half compared with the first half, with Carre adding it expected to achieve full-year net profit.

(By Gus Trompiz and Benoit Van Overstraeten; Editing by Mark Potter and Barbara Lewis)

Yet prices for all three EV battery inputs have fallen to such bombed-out levels that producers are curtailing output and deferring new projects.

This is partly a problem of oversupply. Explosive price rallies in 2021 and 2022 resulted in too much new production capacity being brought online too quickly.

But it is also a problem of demand.

The transition away from the internal combustion engine has by no means ground to a halt. Global new energy vehicle sales were up by 20% year-on-year in January-August, according to consultancy Rho Motion.

Rather, the mix of vehicles being sold and the evolution of battery chemistry have dramatically changed the metals demand dynamic.

The rise of the hybrids

Pure battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales have underperformed expectations due to buyers’ concerns about limited driving range and charging infrastructure.

By contrast, hybrid and plug-in hybrid cars, which have both a battery and internal combustion engine, have soared in popularity.

The increase in global sales of BEVs slowed to 10% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2024, while plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales jumped 46%, according to Rho Motion.

This trend has been led by China, the world’s largest EV market. The key driver is the emergence of the extended range electric vehicle (EREV), a type of PHEV that uses the gasoline engine solely to charge the battery, giving the vehicle an extended driving range of more than 1,000 kilometres (621 miles).

EREVs now account for 31% of all plug-in hybrid sales in China, according to research house Adamas Intelligence, which expects them to enjoy similar success in both Europe and the United States.

Major automakers are embracing hybrids in all forms as a relatively low-cost transition technology between gasoline and pure electric vehicles.

Hybrids don’t need the same battery power as a BEV. Adamas calculates that battery pack capacity in a PHEV is a third of that in a BEV, which means a similar-sized reduction in the amount of lithium, nickel and cobalt used per vehicle.

Other metals, however, stand to benefit from the rise of the hybrids. Platinum and palladium, which are used to clean auto exhausts, have been granted an unexpected new lease of life.

Changing chemistry

While the new energy vehicle mix is changing, so too is battery chemistry.

Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries (LFP) have become the rising stars of the battery industry, accounting for around 40% of battery demand in 2023, more than double the share recorded in 2020, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

As with the new extended range hybrids, the LFP revolution is being led by China, where two-thirds of EV sales used this technology in 2023, the IEA estimates.

Chinese battery makers have turned what was once regarded as a low-power technology suitable only for short city commutes into a product that can compete with nickel-manganese-cobalt battery chemistries.

China’s CATL unveiled a new break-through LFP battery at the Beijing auto show in April. The Shenxing Plus boasts a driving range of 1,000 kilometres on a single charge, effectively eliminating range anxiety.

The only critical metal input for an LFP battery is lithium. It doesn’t require either nickel or cobalt, which makes an LFP battery both cheaper and more environmentally friendly than other chemistries.

The market has taken note. Demand forecasts for nickel and cobalt use in batteries have been steadily downgraded over the last year to factor in China’s pivot towards LFP technology.

Going global

European and US automakers have until now stuck with high-nickel chemistries in their EV batteries but that may be starting to change.

Both Ford Motor and General Motors have shown interest in using CATL’s LFP technology.

Moreover, while China has been the only mass-producer of LFP batteries since the 2010s, the core patents that enabled this dominance expired in 2022.

This has sparked interest outside China.

For example, the IEA has noted a surge of LFP investment in Morocco, which is home to the world’s largest phosphate reserves. Importantly, it also holds free-trade agreements with both the European Union and the United States.

A twisting road

Li Auto’s L6 family sports utility vehicle is an example of how hybrid and LFP technologies have come together to upset preconceived notions about the EV market.

Boasting what the company calls “the latest generation of lithium-iron-phosphate battery”, the vehicle has a range of 212 kilometres in pure battery mode and a range of 1,390 kilometres in mixed battery-engine mode.

The Li6 can accelerate from zero to 100 kilometres an hour in 5.4 seconds, which lays to rest any fear that LFP batteries can’t deliver the same performance as nickel-rich batteries.

Such products are good news for the broader energy transition, offering consumers a cheap, reliable alternative route to an all-electric future.

But they challenge the idea that the global auto market will jump straight from the internal combustion engine to a pure battery vehicle.

They also defy expectations that all EV batteries need nickel and cobalt to enhance power and performance.

What’s more, the battery revolution has only just begun. Battery makers are investing heavily in research and development with the goal of developing ever cheaper, more powerful batteries.

Even lithium is at risk of substitution from sodium-ion batteries as CATL and other Chinese companies such as BYD expand capacity for the new technology.

Sodium-ion batteries could cost up to 20% less than incumbent technologies and can be used for both stationary storage and compact urban EVs, according to the IEA.

They use no lithium but, depending on chemistry, need both nickel and manganese, which foreshadows the potential for more metallic twists in the unpredictable electric vehicle revolution.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Louise Heavens)

Explorers and developers often overstate the certainty of mineral resource classifications based on inadequate data, Desharnais said at an event in Vancouver on Wednesday. The practice has in some instances led to unexpected analyst downgrades, soaring costs and debt, and the derailment of promising assets.

“That classification debt, unfortunately, needs to get paid,” he told about 430 conference participants from 21 countries at CIM’s first Mineral Resources & Mineral Reserves conference. “The CEO may be walking around with a 3-million-oz. resource estimate, but they haven’t earned that classification with sufficient drilling. When the debt comes due, it’s often through painful reclassifications and revisions.”

Decade of missteps

Several recent projects have demonstrated the high cost of classification debt.

Rubicon Resources’ catastrophic 91% downgrade in resource estimates in 2015 stands as one of the most glaring examples. After it began initial production at the F2 gold deposit on its Phoenix property in Ontario’s Red Lake district, the company found the deposit to be uneconomic, shuttering the operation. It had not completed a feasibility study for the high-grade project.

The size of the downgrade blindsided investors and stakeholders, and the company had to undergo a painful restructuring to survive. Rebranded as Battle North Gold, Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) bought it and its renamed Bateman project in 2021 for $343 million.

In 2018, Pretium Resources promoted the Brucejack gold project in northwestern British Columbia’s Golden Triangle, now owned by Newmont (NYSE: NEM, TSX: NGT, ASX: NEM, PNGX: NEM), as a high-grade gold deposit. Yet, the asset disappointed when gold production grades fell far below expectations.

The nuggety nature of the gold, with Brucejack’s steeply dipping quartz veins and erratic grade distribution, made it difficult to consistently meet production targets, forcing the company to push tonnage through the mill to compensate for lower-than-expected grades.

Aurora (2018), Rainy River (2019), and Gold Bar (2020) show how resource overestimation hurt Guyana Goldfields, New Gold (TSX: NGD; NYSE: NGD) and McEwen Mining (TSX: MUX; NYSE: MUX). They had to downgrade estimates mid-operation. This triggered mine plan revisions, soaring costs, production delays, and financial strain.

Grade versus geometric risk

Desharnais identifies two types of risk that contribute to resource misclassification: grade risk and geometric risk.

Grade risk reflects patchiness in ore quality, while geometric risk involves uncertainty about the size and shape of mineralized domains within the deposit.

Conditional simulations help assess grade risk, Desharnais said, but tools to quantify geometric risk are lacking.

Companies often overestimate deposit geometry without tighter drilling, leading to costly misjudgments.

“Sparse drilling gives us a simpler picture than reality,” he explained, adding that only closely spaced drilling can reveal the true complexity of orebodies.

Best practices

Mathieu Doucette, a senior geologist at ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT), talked about the difficulty of classifying resources at Canada’s largest iron mine, the Mont-Wright iron ore mine in Quebec, producing continuously since 1974. Outdated data can affect current resource estimates. He illustrated how mixing in fresh drill holes helps manage geological risk as part of a dynamic model essential to avoid misclassification.

“The first thing [a QP] will do is akin to lighting a torch,” he said. “But everything on the edges is dark, and you can’t really see it. Drill holes are our ability to try and get some information, but sparse data hides the full picture.”

David Machuca-Mory, a principal consultant at SRK Consulting, said fixed models are risky. Deposits can be more unpredictable than they seem. Adaptive methods help ensure estimates reflect reality, reducing the chance of costly surprises.

“Even with dense drilling, some areas remain highly uncertain,” Machuca-Mory said. “Confidence intervals are large, and relying solely on drill spacing doesn’t always guarantee accurate classification.”

Cognitive biases

Desharnais said that misclassification is not just a technical problem; human psychology plays a significant role.

Anchoring bias makes companies stick with initial estimates despite new data. Authority bias pressures geologists and consultants to confirm favourable results to please management or investors.

“The consulting firm wants the next contract,” Desharnais said. “The CEO has family and friends invested and needs good news. These biases create a system where classification debt builds up across projects, only to be paid through painful revisions later.”

Owning up

Desharnais argued for more conservative resource models and said benchmarking against operating mines would help set realistic expectations. He suggested that technical reports include histograms that show the distance between drill holes and classified resources, he added.

“It forces the QP or CP to look at what they’ve done and ask: Does this make sense?” he said. “Transparent reporting would help prevent overly aggressive classifications, ensuring companies earn their resource classifications with sufficient data.”

Such measures may slow development, but they could also reduce the prevalence of misclassified resources in the industry. Desharnais urged geologists to scrutinize each block of material above the cut-off grade.

“Over-promising today only delays the inevitable correction tomorrow,” he said.

“We need to maintain supply and demand balance,” Bahlil Lahadalia, minister for energy and mineral resources, said at a media briefing in Jakarta on Friday. “If demand is low and supply is abundant, prices will fall.”

Nickel smelters in the country responsible for more than half of world production are enduring a shortage of ore due to government licensing issues, driving up the premium that must be paid to secure the raw material. That’s forced many to import record quantities from the neighboring Philippines.

Still, benchmark nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange have struggled to recover substantially from multi-year lows earlier in 2024 due to weak demand for stainless steel, the biggest market for the metal. Bulls are hoping that fresh economic stimulus from China can boost consumption.

The issues with the Indonesian permits, known as RKABs, have persisted since the start of the year. French firm Eramet SA, which operates one of Indonesia’s biggest nickel mines, cut its guidance for external ore sales by 29% after the government declined to license a higher amount.

On Friday, Lahadalia said that if large foreign-owned miners were granted their full sales quotas, smaller miners would struggle to sell their product.

“Most of the big ones are foreign owned, if we give them full RKAB, where can the others sell their ore?” he said. “Smelters must also buy ore from other companies that have no processing plants, like small miners.”

(By Eddie Spence and Eko Listiyorini)

Read More: Indonesia looks to next phase for nickel industry as fixer-in-chief bows out

All but one man.

After a decade at the heart of power, Luhut Panjaitan, the 77-year-old fixer who championed so many of outgoing President Joko Widodo’s key industrial policies, says he is ready to step aside. His departure from the political frontline, after serious illness last year, is not unexpected. But with no clear heir in view, it leaves a tricky gap for the incoming administration as it tackles the next stages of key existing policies, including efforts to limit raw material exports in favor of higher value goods or the energy transition — areas which cut perilously across fiefdoms.

A retired four-star general turned diplomat and businessman, Panjaitan, widely known as Luhut, has a low profile outside his home country. Inside, however, he’s been for years the go-to man who can woo investors and shuttle between ministries to cut through the bureaucracy that so often tangles Indonesia’s unwieldy cabinets. He’s pushed through everything from coronavirus controls to a landmark climate finance deal in 2022.

His most significant policy accomplishment has been what is known in Jakarta as “downstreaming”, or the idea of leveraging Indonesia’s mineral wealth to secure investment in industrial development. The concept was not new when Jokowi, as the president is known, came in — it simply had never been put into action. And not without good reason, given the limited evidence of success elsewhere, with other mineral-rich nations also struggling to push investors toward processing and even manufacturing.

Panjaitan’s move to ban raw nickel ore exports in 2020 did infuriate trading partners. But it also proved a radical step that ultimately brought billions of dollars of mostly Chinese funds into Indonesian processing, and helped turn the country into a dominant force in the market. Restrictions on unrefined copper and bauxite have followed.

The economic impact of the nickel move has been rapid and visible. Indonesia has built a multi-billion industry, created jobs and boosted exports — even if that has also come at a steep environmental and human cost, especially for islands like Sulawesi.

“It’s really difficult to find a close personality who can replace Luhut,” said Siwage Negara, a research fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, pointing to Panjaitan, whose most recent title is Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment, as a critical actor.

“The new government needs to find someone who can play Luhut’s role, if they are serious about downstreaming.”

The moment is a delicate one for the downstreaming campaign. Indonesia’s new government has said it will continue to pull the economy away from its dependence on raw materials and encourage the development of a manufacturing sector. Incoming President Prabowo Subianto wants to include other commodities such as sugar and palm oil, according to people familiar with the matter.

But he also wants to ensure existing bans are contributing financially, and his team has already commissioned McKinsey & Co. to provide a downstreaming review. (McKinsey did not reply to a request for comment.)

The ban on exports of bauxite, the ore used to make aluminum, may be first to be challenged. Shipments were stopped last year before enough refineries had been built, hitting local miners, curbing earnings from exports and prompting lawmaker protests. Jokowi and Panjaitan held firm.

Without the dominance Indonesia enjoys in nickel, however, it is not clear that other export restrictions will ever generate a similar boost. In the first nine months of this year, the metal accounted for more than 40% of downstreaming investment, according to official figures. While nickel processing has boomed, a full-scale electric-vehicle and battery sector remains a distant prospect.

“Prabowo is inheriting a very constrained budget,” said Eve Warburton at the Australian National University’s Indonesia Institute. “He may pivot if the policy is more difficult to implement in other sectors, and the government needs fast revenue.”

Panjaitan declined to be interviewed for this story.

Military clout

As a former army man, including with the elite special forces, Panjaitan’s pedigree resonated with the one-time officers who still hold sway in Indonesian politics and business. Prabowo himself was once under his command.

He is also wealthy, thanks to a coal and energy business set up after he left the forces and listed on the Jakarta stock exchange as PT TBS Energi Utama. Panjaitan has said he now owns approximately 9% of the firm, having divested most of his shares before coming into government. Still, a 2023 disclosure to Indonesia’s Corruption Eradication Commission put his personal net worth at 1.04 trillion rupiah ($65 million).

Key to his ascent has been his closeness to Jokowi, which dates back to a furniture-making venture they formed in 2009 while the outgoing president was mayor of a city in central Java. The two remained close, with Panjaitan stepping in to become Jokowi’s chief of staff after his election in 2014.

“Luhut has a lot of history working with Jokowi, he kind of represents the president,” said Putra Adhiguna, managing director at the Energy Shift Institute, adding Jokowi “delegated much of his decision-making to him.”

That relationship was leveraged to provide foreign investors with the confidence they needed to invest in nickel downstreaming and other ventures, according to those who met him. They knew Panjaitan had the president’s ear, and so spoke with authority. In a country where abrupt policy u-turns are not uncommon, his reassurance and straight-talking approach went far.

The exit also raises uncomfortable questions for another high-profile success, the Just Energy Transition Partnership, which is still the most significant climate finance deal signed to date and probably also the most ambitious, seeking to move Indonesia away from coal dependence. The agreement’s existence was itself a victory, but as Panjaitan departs, it remains largely on paper.

The new administration — assuming that climate deal remains a priority — will have to navigate institutional hold-ups, cut red tape and protectionist measures and campaign for continued disclosure. It will also have to continue to demand from wealthy partner nations more grants, concessional loans and straight-up investments into green energy generation and infrastructure, to clean up a system still heavily dependent on the dirtiest fossil fuel.

That may not be the direction of travel.

Of course, much depends on whether any replacement can be found for Panjaitan. Speculation has swirled around Prabowo’s brother and close adviser, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, who could step into a similar, perhaps backstage, position.

But even then the role is a daunting one. The downstreaming campaign in particular only becomes tougher as Indonesia tries to leverage more commodities where it is nowhere near as dominant as it is in nickel — while still hoping to go beyond processing to the next stage of development, into manufacturing and on to become a major player in EVs.

“We have only reached the first leg of downstreaming,” said Adhiguna. “The question is whether Indonesia can reach the second.”

(By Eddie Spence)

The US automaker on Wednesday said it would form a joint venture with Lithium Americas to develop the Thacker Pass lithium mine, North America’s largest source of the battery metal.

The move increases GM’s investment in the project by an additional $325 million to $950 million after an initial investment announced last year. It also gives the automaker a partial ownership stake in the mine and doubles its access to production to at least 20 years.

While the Thacker Pass JV should supply GM with a “significant” amount of its lithium, the company is open to other critical minerals deals on the continent, Jeff Morrison, GM’s senior vice president of global purchasing and supply chain, said in an interview on Thursday.

A majority of GM’s deals are for minerals supply, not necessarily JVs, and the automaker likely would continue that approach, he added.

“We don’t want to become a mining company,” Morrison said. “Our main goal is to build out a North American based, Western-allied, reliant supply chain. To do that, we have to pick partners and assets and figure out what they need to do to industrialize and be successful.”

GM also has agreements to buy cobalt from Glencore, an investment in nickel and cobalt miner Queensland Pacific Metals, and a lithium supply deal with Arcadium Lithium, among others.

The automaker in 2021 invested in Controlled Thermal Resources Hell’s Kitchen geothermal brine project in California, although that project has experienced delays.

Morrison said GM is “still working with them and still staying close with them.”

(By Ernest Scheyder; Editing by Bill Berkrot)

Read More: General Motors digs into mining business to lead race for EV metals

The Chinese cellmaking giant, through its subsidiary CBL International Development, formed the venture with government-owned Indonesia Battery Corporation, the companies said in a statement. The project in Karawang, West Java, aims to scale up battery production to 15 gigawatts a year.

The move marks an important step toward Indonesia’s goal to build out a complete supply chain for electric vehicles, a key aim launched by outgoing President Joko Widodo. The government has looked to leverage its vast production of nickel, a key ingredient for some batteries, to draw in foreign investors to the EV sector.

Earlier this year Hyundai Motor Group and LG Energy Solution Ltd. opened the first-ever battery cell plant in the country, while China’s BTR New Material Group launched an anode material plant.

(By Eddie Spence)

Iron ore futures fell more than 5% to trade below $100 a ton in Singapore, while tin, zinc and nickel paced declines for non-ferrous metals on the London Metal Exchange.

China will expand a program to support the completion of unfinished housing projects to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion), Housing Minister Ni Hong said at a briefing on Thursday. That nearly doubles the scale of spending as Beijing bids to ease the real estate crisis, but investors had been hoping for more.

“The property policies are focused on resolving the backlog of housing inventory, which doesn’t really help much with steel demand in the short term,” said Zhou Minbo, an analyst with GF Futures Co.

Iron ore had rallied from a two-year low below $90 in late-September to above $110. But prices have faded as a series of government briefings on economic policy fell short of expectations. China’s economy is still under pressure, with its third-quarter growth likely to be at its weakest pace in six quarters, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Investors are placing too much expectation on government announcements of stimulus, said Han Jing, an analyst with SDIC Essence Futures Co. There has been a clear shift in policies, but the scale and the pace will become clear more gradually, he said.

Iron ore is down by more than a quarter this year, and pressure isn’t coming just from weaker Chinese demand. Relatively strong supply has been underscored by quarterly output tallies from the big three miners this week, with Brazil’s Vale SA pushing its production to the highest since 2018.

Iron ore futures were trading down 4% at $100.60 a ton as of 12:36 p.m. London time. Copper was 0.5% lower at $9,514 a ton on the LME, having earlier hit a three-week low of $9,435.50 a ton. Tin fell 2.4%, while nickel and zinc were more than 1% lower.

Read More: World’s top two iron ore miners raise output even as China slows

Manara, a joint venture between Saudi Arabian mining company Ma’aden and its $925 billion Public Investment Fund, is in advanced talks to acquire between 15% and 20% equity in the Zambian assets, the sources said.

The stake could be worth between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, one of the sources added.

First Quantum’s sale of a stake in the Zambian assets could be concluded by year-end, the sources said. There is no certainty that a deal will be signed as the negotiations are ongoing, they added.

Both First Quantum and Manara Minerals declined to comment on the sale.

The potential deal is in the spotlight as copper is a much sought-after element for the clean energy transition due to its uses in the manufacture of electric cars and data centers powering artificial intelligence.

First Quantum earlier this year said it was in talks with potential investors to sell a partial stake in the Zambian mines, while also exploring the sale of its Spanish mine Las Cruces to raise capital and cut debt after the Panama government ordered the shutdown of its flagship Cobre Panama mine.

Manara has emerged as a front runner for the purchase as the Saudi firm’s strategy to acquire a minority interest fits with First Quantum’s aim to retain a majority stake in the mines, said the sources, who did not wish to be quoted as they are not authorized to speak with media.

First Quantum owns the Kansanshi and Sentinel copper mines in Zambia, which have become key to future output after Cobre Panama’s shutdown. First Quantum also owns the Enterprise nickel mine in the country.

“This is not a surprise – First Quantum has disclosed exploring a sale to shore up its balance sheet and the Saudis have been increasingly active in acquiring mining stakes,” Citigroup analysts said in a note after Reuters‘ story.

First Quantum shares rose as much as 4.9% in early morning trade in Toronto.

The Zambian mines contributed $1.08 billion to First Quantum’s revenue in the second quarter of this year. Zambian state firm ZCCM-IH owns 20% of Kansanshi.

First Quantum plans to spend an additional $1.3 billion at Kansanshi over the next five years, part of a $2 billion spending plan to raise copper output to about 277,000 tons per year by 2033 from about 130,000 tons in 2023.

The Canadian miner has shed 40% of its revenue due to the closure of its flagship Cobre Panama mine last November, which when operational was one of the newest and biggest copper mines of the world.

The company had to undertake a series of capital restructuring measures earlier this year to strengthen its balance sheet, including a share offering worth $1 billion.

Manara has made significant investments in metals including copper, nickel and lithium as part of Saudi Arabia’s aggressive push to secure minerals and transform into a hub for battery and electric vehicle manufacturing.

The firm is also in talks with the Pakistan government to be part of the Reko Diq copper mine currently under development, which is owned by Barrick Gold, Pakistan state enterprises and the provincial government of Balochistan.

An anticipated rally in the price of copper, spurred by a widening supply gap, is expected to continue to support the metal above $10,000 per ton by the end of 2025, according to Bank of America.

(By Divya Rajagopal, Clara Denina and Felix Njini; Editing by Veronica Brown and Jan Harvey)

Atlas, which has developed a waste-free technology to process low-grade nickel for use in electric vehicle batteries, last year raised $27 million for its technology and said it aims to launch production at sites in Canada or the US by 2027 at commercial scale.

Atlas’ technology uses hydrochloric acid and caustic soda to leach the ore but, unlike some other methods, does not need high pressure or high temperatures and does not result in waste products or other emissions while increasing the amount of ore available for batteries by 50%, the company said.

Until now, saprolite ores, which account for approximately one-third of the world’s nickel resources, could not be processed into battery grade applications economically, which is what the Atlas process is targeting.

6K Energy said its UniMelt production system is able to deliver multiple IRA compliant Li-ion materials, including nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) and lithium ferrophosphate (LFP) battery cathode active materials (CAM), with strong specification performance meeting or exceeding industry requirements.

The company added that its LFP CAM is achieving over 160mh/gm capacity with exceptional efficiency, trending to 6,000-plus cycles while maintaining 80% capacity, while its single-crystal NMC811 is demonstrating performance trending to 3,000-plus cycles to 80% state of health.

According to 6K Energy, it delivers both NMC and LFP at a significantly lower cost than Chinese suppliers – backed by lower energy consumption and as much as 65% lower carbon footprint.

As outlined in the MOU, Atlas will continue to focus on the North American production by deploying its low-carbon process to produce mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) from its established access to nickel laterite sources. 6K Energy will focus on converting nickel salts to CAM with its propriety microwave-generated plasma in a closed-loop production process.

The joint work will provide the lowest carbon footprint impact in conjunction with a market leading solution for EVs and the automotive industry as a whole, the companies said.

Eramet announced the lowered forecasts late on Tuesday, citing a downturn in the manganese market and a smaller-than-expected permit allowance in Indonesia.

The Moanda mine in Gabon and the Weda Bay mine in Indonesia have driven Eramet’s growth, as its historic nickel operation in New Caledonia has been drained by losses and social unrest.

Analysts at ODDO BHF called the news “another setback” for Eramet, following its July reduction of 2024 targets for ore output in Gabon and Indonesia, while also trimming short-term targets for a new lithium mine in Argentina.

Eramet attributed the deterioration in the manganese market to falling Chinese output of carbon steel — which requires manganese in its production — and an influx of low-grade ore after a price surge earlier this year.

The company’s full-year sales volumes of high-grade manganese ore are estimated to be between 6.0 and 6.5 million tonnes in 2024, of which approximately 700,000 tonnes are internal sales.

As a result, Eramet has decided to suspend ore production at the Moanda mine for a minimum of three weeks. According to the company, sales and shipments will continue during this period.

The 2024 volume target for produced and transported manganese ore was revised to between 6.5 and 7.0 million tonnes, down from the previous 7.0 to 7.5 million tonnes.

In Indonesia, the mines ministry this week issued PT Weda Bay Nickel, Eramet’s joint venture with Chinese group Tsingshan, a revised allowance of 32 million wet tonnes annually for 2024-2026, including 3 million for internal sales, according to Eramet.

As a result, the operation’s 2024 volume target for external marketable nickel ore has been revised to 29 million wet tonnes, down from the previous 40 to 42 million tonnes. Eramet noted that the impact on the operation’s 2024 financial performance is expected to be largely offset by higher ore premiums due to domestic supply restrictions.

(With files from Reuters)

The company, one of the world’s top iron ore suppliers, reported output of 91 million metric tons in the three months ended Sept. 30, it said in a securities filing.

The volume of iron ore produced reached the highest level in a three-month period since the final quarter of 2018, powered by improved performance at a trio of Brazilian mining projects – S11D, Itabira and Brucutu – according to the company.

Last month, the firm raised its 2024 forecast for iron ore output to between 323 million and 330 million tons after a stronger-than-expected first half.

Iron ore sales during the third quarter rose 1.6% from a year earlier to 81.8 million tons, mostly due to an increase in pellet shipments.

RBC Capital Markets analysts said Vale’s production figures were above expectations across the entire portfolio and the miner was on track to achieve its full-year guidance.

Although sales volumes lagged production, the company said inventory build at the iron ore division is expected to reduce this quarter. RBC analysts said that should translate into an upgrade of market estimates for 2024 core earnings.

The average realized price of Vale’s iron ore fines was about $91 per ton in the quarter, down nearly 14% year-on-year, and 7.7% lower than the second quarter.

Vale noted that due to price increases and portfolio adjustments, its realized prices declined almost $5 per ton less than market prices during the quarter.

Base metals

Vale’s copper production increased some 5% from a year earlier to reach 85,900 tons in the third quarter, the miner said, adding that all of its copper projects showed an improvement.

The company’s nickel output was also up, by almost 12% year-on-year to total 47,100 tons, due to stronger performance at its Sudbury project as well as the ramp-up of Voisey’s Bay underground mines, both in Canada.

Vale shipped 75,200 tons of copper in the quarter, up about 2% year-on-year, while it sold 40,700 tons of nickel, nearly 4% more than the same period last year.

(By Marta Nogueira and Andre Romani; Editing by Sarah Morland, David Alire Garcia and Jamie Freed)

This accomplishment follows last year’s successful bench-scale test program. FPX’s work has been supported in part by a grant from Natural Resources Canada under the federal government’s Critical Minerals Research, Development and Demonstration program.

“The results of our hydrometallurgy refinery pilot plant test work confirm the technical advantages of awaruite nickel mineralization to produce battery-grade nickel sulphate, further demonstrating the opportunity to develop a more streamlined nickel supply chain entirely in Canada,” commented Andrew Osterloh, SVP projects and operations.

“Baptiste would represent an almost 50% increase to Canada’s current annual nickel production, all without adding to or displacing any of Canada’s nickel smelting or complex refinery capacity, thereby pioneering a uniquely low-cost, low-carbon link between mining and EV battery production,“ he said.

The pilot-scale tests used awaruite concentrate (60% nickel) as feed. The feed would be supplied by the Baptiste nickel-iron concentrator in central British Columbia. The concentrate would undergo an atmospheric leach followed by precipitation of cobalt, nickel sulphate, and nickel scavenging in the presence of ammonium sulphate. A copper concentrate would also be produced from the leach circuit.

The pilot plant had overall leach extractions of 99.3% for nickel and 97.9% for cobalt.

Using an assumed nickel price of $8.75 per pound, FPX produced a preliminary feasibility study last year for the Baptiste project that gave it an after-tax net present value (8% discount) of $2.01 billion and an internal rate of return of 18.6%.

The mine will have a life of 29 years with average annual nickel production of 132 million lb. The initial capex will be $2.18 billion followed by $763 million for expansion and sustaining costs of $1.18 billion.

The Moanda mine in Gabon and the Weda Bay mine in Indonesia are each the world’s biggest for their respective minerals, and have driven Eramet’s growth as its historic nickel operation in New Caledonia has been drained by losses and social unrest.

Eramet had raised its full-year core profit guidance in July on a jump in manganese prices.

But the group said in a statement that the manganese market had deteriorated due to a strong decline in Chinese output of carbon steel – the main use for manganese – and an influx of low-grade manganese following the rise in prices earlier this year.

Eramet’s Comilog subsidiary is set to suspend ore production at the Moanda mine for a minimum period of three weeks, with the duration to be revised according to market activity, the group said.

The 2024 target for produced and transported manganese ore from Moanda is now between 6.5 million and 7.0 million metric tons, compared with 7.0 million to 7.5 million previously, it said.

In Indonesia, the country’s mines ministry this week issued PT Weda Bay Nickel, Eramet’s joint venture with Chinese group Tsingshan, with a revised allowance of 32 million wet tons annually for 2024-2026, including 3 million for internal sales, Eramet said.

As a result the operation’s 2024 volume target for external marketable nickel ore has been revised to 29 million wet tons from 40 million to 42 million previously, Eramet said.

The impact on the operation’s 2024 financial performance is expected to be largely offset by higher ore premiums resulting from restrictions to domestic supply, Eramet added.

The French group will publish a third-quarter sales update on Oct. 24.

(By Sudip Kar-Gupta; Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Aurora Ellis)

An Appian spokesperson told MINING.COM on Monday that the company will seek $522 million, plus additional interest and legal costs accrued from the liability trial in July 2024 until the upcoming trial to determine the exact amount Sibanye will have to pay, in November 2025. “The total claim by the time of the quantum trial will be in excess of $600 million,” the person said.

Sibanye-Stillwater spokesperson James Wellsted told Reuters on Monday that Sibanye’s case is that Appian “is entitled to either no or significantly reduced damages.” 

Appian took Sibanye-Stillwater to court in 2022, after the South African precious metals miner scrapped a transaction to buy shares in Atlantic Nickel and Mineração Vale Verde, owners of the Santa Rita nickel and Serrote copper mines in Brazil, respectively.

The acquisition of the two operations was meant to boost Sibanye’s critical metals portfolio as it sought to diversify away from platinum and gold.

Sibanye cited a geotechnical event at Santa Rita as the reason for terminating the deals. Appian claimed the miner’s decision was based on an “incorrect assertion”.

In the ruling, handed down following a five-week trial, Justice Butcher said the geotechnical event used by Sibanye as reason for withdrawing from the deal was neither expected to be material nor reasonably anticipated to become so.

Butcher noted there was “no other basis on which Sibanye was entitled to terminate the sale and purchase agreements (SPAs).”

Appian said it plans to recover the full extent of its losses, including all interest accumulated since January 2022, when Sibanye walked away from the deal.

Should Sibanye fail to pay the full amount awarded in the November 2025 trial, Appian said it would pursue all available enforcement measures.

In a separate statement, Sibanye noted the company was successful in having Appian’s claim of willful misconduct dismissed.

“The judge ruled that Sibanye-Stillwater management genuinely believed that it was entitled to terminate the SPAs in what they perceived as the best interests of Sibanye-Stillwater,” it said.

The company argues that Appian could have sold the Santa Rita and Serrote mines to another buyer for a similar price, which in Sibanye’s view means that Appian cannot claim all losses to be covered by Sibanye-Stillwater.

“The judgment notes that Appian received multiple offers for the mines after Sibanye-Stillwater terminated the SPAs. Accordingly, Sibanye-Stillwater will continue to defend the claim vigorously at the trial in November 2025,” it said.

Atlantic Nickel’s Santa Rita open pit mine in the Brazilian state of Bahia is one of the few long-life nickel sulphide mines currently in production. It also yields copper, cobalt, and platinum group metals as by-products.

The company is advancing the mine’s underground extension as it transitions from open-pit to underground operations. This shift to higher-grade nickel is expected to boost production rates and extend the mine’s operational life to over 20 years.

At the end of the third quarter of 2024, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners had a combined market capitalization of $1.51 trillion, up just under $76 billion from end-June, largely on the back of gold and royalty stocks.

The total stock market valuation of the world’s biggest mining companies is up a fairly modest 8% year to end-September and despite the good run is still $240 billion below the peak hit in the second quarter of 2022.  

Ranks, value of gold stocks swell

The value of precious metals and royalty companies climbed by a combined $42 billion, or 16% during the quarter and gold counters dominate the best performing ranks. 

Were it not for the limited tradability of stock in Russia’s Polyus, which lost some ground over the last three months despite gold’s stellar performance, bullion’s effect on the Top 50 would have been even more pronounced. 

Canada’s Alamos Gold joins the top 50 for the first time with a more than 31% jump in value, lifting it six places to number 48 with a valuation of $8.2 billion at the end of the quarter while the second quarter’s newcomer Pan American Silver (following its absorption of Yamana Gold) hangs on at no 50.

Alamos Gold last month raised its production guidance by over 20% for 2025-2026 with the inclusion of the Magino mine and its integration with its Island Gold operation in Ontario. The Toronto- based miner has long term ambitions to grow its production base to 900,000 ounces per year.

Uzbekistan is readying an IPO for Navoi Mining and Metallurgy Combinat – the world’s fourth largest gold mining company and significant uranium producer in 2025. NMMC debuted a $1 billion bond offering last week, marking the first global debt market issuance from a gold mining company since June 2023.

Navoi should easily join the ranks of gold producers in the top 50 thanks to ownership of the world’s largest gold mine, Muruntau, and annual production of 2.9 million ounces at grades and per ounce extraction costs the envy of the sector.  

The Muruntau open pit mine southwest of the Kyzylkum desert, originally developed during the Soviet era as a source of uranium, has estimated reserves of around 130 million ounces of gold. 

Goldilocks copper

Copper specialists, and those with fat gold credits, have gained a combined 36% year to date as the copper price continues to flirt with the $10,000 a tonne level, but momentum slowed dramatically during Q3 with the group contributing only $7.2 billion in added market worth during the quarter. 

Amman Mineral’s fierce rally also came to an abrupt halt during the quarter with the counter losing 18% over the three months and coming close to falling out of the top 10.

Investors who bought Amman, owner of the world’s third largest mine worldwide in terms of copper equivalent, at the IPO price in Jakarta a year ago, are still enjoying 400% gains since then, however. 

Southern Copper’s position as the world’s third most valuable mining stock seems entrenched after a double digit percentage gain in Q3 compared to a much more sedate performance by Freeport-McMoRan, which now has to gain a full $20 billion in market cap to haul in its Mexico City-based rival.

Light on lithium 

Rio Tinto’s vote of confidence in the long term future of the lithium sector (and its own ability to make M&A work) dominated the news at the start of the December-quarter but it’s worth noting that Arcadium’s more than 90% surge since the all-cash offer was first announced is not enough for the stock to enter the rankings.

Three lithium counters exited the rankings this year, Australia’s Pilbara Minerals and Mineral Resources and China’s Tianqi Lithium as the deep slump in prices for the battery metal continues to take its toll.  

Last quarter’s no 50, Ganfeng Lithium jumps six places after being swept up in the stimulus-induced rally on Chinese stock markets at the end of the quarter, while Tianqi’s performance so far in October should see it reenter the Top 50 in due course. 

Ganfeng was barely holding on at position 50 at end-June and with gold price momentum continuing and two gold mining companies waiting in the winds – Yintai and Alamos – only three lithium counters in the top 50 may be a reality for some time to come. 

After peaking in the second quarter of 2022 with a combined value of nearly $120 billion, the remaining lithium stocks’ market value has now shrunk to $34 billion.  

Iron ore ground down

Despite a modest improvement during the quarter, the mining industry’s traditional big 5 – BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Vale and Anglo American – remain in the red for 2024, losing $24 billion since the start of the year. 

The big 5 diversifieds now make up 29% of the total index, down from a height of 38% at the end of 2022.  

Iron ore’s less than rosy outlook – the late boost China’s recent stimulus package notwithstanding – saw Fortescue once again feature on the biggest losers list and Cleveland Cliffs exit the ranking with the US iron ore miner’s 37% decline this year exacerbated by its inability to capitalize on the blocking of the Nippon-US Steel tie up. 

Iron ore’s representation in the top 50 have diminished in the last couple of years – Brazil’s CSN Mineração dropped out during Q1 this year while Anglo-controlled and separately-listed Kumba Iron Ore has lost touch with the top tier after a 40% fall year to date.

Click on image for full size table.

NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, stock exchange data, company reports. Share data from primary-listed exchange at close Oct 4, 2024 close of trading converted to US$ where applicable. Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.  

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining (the gold and uranium giant may list later this year), Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like China’s CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining will continue to represent a small portion of its valuation.  

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.

After buying mining assets around the world over the past two decades to secure metals needed for industrialization and more recently to meet its carbon emissions targets, China now wants a bigger say in how prices of those metals are determined.

But it has lost market share in metals futures trading and needs to persuade international investors to use the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE), according to interviews with more than 10 brokers, traders, analysts, risk managers and consultants with direct knowledge of ShFE’s plans.

If successful, the push would help give Shanghai’s contracts benchmark status and upend the system for reference prices of industrial metals in place since 1877 when the London Metal Exchange (LME) started life above a hat shop in London.

ShFE benchmarks would eliminate the need for Chinese firms to link their physical contracts to LME prices and create a need for foreigners to trade on ShFE to influence reference prices in their contracts, shifting market sway from the west to China.

In recent meetings, the exchange told industry players the plan is high on its agenda and was likely to be put in place soon, but it did not discuss deadlines, two people said.

ShFE did not respond to requests for comment or to questions on timelines, amounts available to invest in this project, the challenges it faces or how success would be measured.

However, state media in June reported Wang Fenghai, general manager at ShFE, as saying: “Only through opening up can we draw in foreign investors, participate in the process of ShFE’s price establishment, therefore enhance price influence.”

Wang added that cross-border delivery capability was an area ShFE would focus on in terms of attracting global participation.

In a key step, the exchange has been looking to line up warehouses outside China to store metal delivered for copper contracts that were launched on its International Energy Exchange (INE) for foreigners in 2020.

ShFE has told industry stakeholders it intends to expand soon into international metals storage, two other sources with direct knowledge said, bidding to rival the LME’s global network of more than 450 registered warehouses that hold thousands of tons of aluminum, copper and other metals.

“They (ShFE) have a plan, they are coming out, they will list warehouses outside China, … the government wants this to happen,” one source familiar with the exchange’s thinking said.

While the metals industry has known since last year that ShFE plans to line up warehouses offshore, starting in Singapore, its latest comments to foreign firms suggest it is closer than ever to going ahead.

“A real price people want to use needs warehouse stocks the world over,” a source at a consultancy with knowledge of ShFE’s plans said.

Once ShFE makes a firm decision to offer metal storage outside China, the process of registering warehouses would be a matter of weeks if not days, as facilities already exist at ports that see large flows of metals, warehousing sources said.

ShFE will not need regulatory approvals for warehouses that can store metal deliverable against its contracts as long as they are located in free trade zones, so metal can be stored free of taxes until delivered to customers.

Singapore makes a good starting point as it is already a location for LME warehouses, which means the regulatory framework already exists.

All of the people who spoke to Reuters asked not to be named as their conversations with ShFE were private.

Rivals take market share

The Shanghai exchange faces a difficult road countering the LME, even as China consumes more than half of global supplies of copper, aluminum and zinc and produces large amounts of these metals.

“Any exchange that wants to achieve internationalization would face challenges … ShFE would face many challenges and various constraints if it aims to become a global pricing center,” Luo Xufeng, chairman of Nanhua Futures told Reuters.

Ultimately the exchange aims to list aluminum, zinc, nickel, lead and tin on the INE, sources with knowledge of ShFE’s plans said. Those metals are already traded on the LME, the world’s largest and oldest forum for metals, owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEx).

On the LME, volumes for copper, essential in construction, power systems and electrical goods, have stabilized at around 60% of copper futures globally.

But ShFE’s domestic market has lost ground to US-based COMEX, part of CME Group, since 2015, with ShFE last year accounting for around 15% of copper futures traded globally, while COMEX’s share was 22%.And in the first nine months of 2024, trading volumes on ShFE’s INE copper futures have dropped nearly 43% from the same period last year.

“The only way to increase volumes is get more international involvement in ShFE,” a metals trader with direct knowledge of the matter said, adding that China’s government was behind the project to internationalize ShFE’s contracts.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), which regulates ShFE, and the State Council, China’s cabinet, did not respond to questions from Reuters.

Meanwhile, LME is working on plans to list new contracts using ShFE prices and is set to approve the expansion of its metals warehousing network into Hong Kong before the end of this year.

LME said it intends to “deepen our collaboration with ShFE by working together in product innovation to better serve international participants in risk management and price discovery,” in response to a request for comment on its plans.

Hurdles for ShFE

ShFE’s ambition has been long in the making. When HKEx bought the London exchange in 2012 with a plan to turbo-charge revenues by expanding LME warehousing into China, ShFE told local authorities it could mimic the LME’s network and give China power and influence over global metals markets.

Some of that influence would come from more foreigners trading on ShFE having to hold yuan accounts, which would boost Beijing’s aim to gain global acceptance of its currency. Contracts on ShFE and its INE platform are priced in yuan.

“ShFE has been trying to do this for over 10 years,” said Dan Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading.

“The biggest challenge is that there are still restrictions on the conversion of yuan to dollars.”

China’s currency exchange controls that limit the amount of money companies can take out of the country at any one time, partly a measure to control currency volatility, are potential deterrents for foreign investors.

Sources also mentioned fear of Chinese authorities’ policies designed to steer commodities markets and government market interventions, such as on margin requirements – the deposits of cash or collateral clearing houses need to cover potential losses.

“They don’t like volatility. They could double, triple transaction fees and margins overnight if they want. It makes people nervous,” a source familiar with the matter at a resources-focused fund said.

(By Pratima Desai, Siyi Liu and Beijing Newsroom; Editing by Veronica Brown, Tony Munroe and Sonali Paul)

Speaking Thursday at an event in Ottawa, Jonathan Price said that while both the US and Canada have focused on developing the electric-vehicle and battery manufacturing sectors on the continent, support for mines and mineral processing continues to lag.

That stands in contrast with countries like Saudi Arabia and China, whose governments are spending billions to entrench their positions in global supply chains, he said.

Price flagged the massive public subsidies that Canada’s federal government has pledged to international companies including Volkswagen AG, Northvolt AB and Stellantis NV, and urged further investments to support resource autonomy in the country.

“Support for car and battery plants, absent support for the mines needed to support them, is like starting a farm-to-table restaurant — without bothering to plant the farm.”

Price also referred to Canada’s “cumbersome regulatory processes,” including lengthy permitting times, saying they make the sector less competitive and are a deterrent to investment. North American governments need “ambitious, targeted government incentives and investment” to grow critical minerals capacity, he said.

The comments come as North American governments push to re-shore productive capacity and reassert control over resource supply chains amid mounting criticisms of China flooding markets with cheaper products. Both the US and Canada have started to levy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, as well as steel and aluminum products.

In a discussion after the speech, US Ambassador to Canada David Cohen said that both countries’ governments need to prioritize and encourage investment into the mining sector. While figuring out how to sustainably open the sector will “ultimately will be solved by the private sector,” Cohen noted North American policy should continue to offer “grants, incentives and credits to try and offset the impact and influence of China’s dominance.”

Cohen pointed to the Defense Production Act Investments program in the US, which has already provided funding to Canadian mining companies like Fortune Minerals Limited and Lomiko.

In his speech, Price noted that Canada’s government has has committed C$4 billion ($2.9 billion) in spending on critical minerals over eight years, while China has spent C$20 billion in 2023 alone, evidence that China will be aggressive in trying to consolidate its dominance in critical minerals.

“It’s about economic security, it’s about energy security, and it is about national security,” Price said.

At a news conference in Toronto, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said her government has put forward the first Canadian critical minerals strategy and it also has a suite of investment tax credits for green projects worth more than C$90 billion.

She said Canada is working closely with the US to coordinate supply chains, resulting in the American investments in Canadian miners. But western allies are seeing “very targeted, very intentional” Chinese action to “wipe out” nascent miners and processors, she said.

“We at the G-7, working with partners, working with all political allies in this space, really need to find collective ways to support our miners, our processors,” she said.

“I think we’ve all recognized that we need more supply chain security and I think it will take collective action to make that happen.”

(By Erik Hertzberg)

Read More: Canada’s green taxonomy unlikely to include new natural gas projects

The funding would cover nearly half of the C$9.6 million estimated to complete Canada Nickel’s ongoing studies focusing on electrical infrastructure at the project. The studies, says the company, represent “a crucial step” for the development of clean energy infrastructure that drives innovation in Canada’s mining sector. Completion of the studies is scheduled for June 2025.

With successful implementation of the electrical infrastructure and by utilizing Ontario’s clean electricity grid, the studies are expected to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 60% compared to diesel-powered operations during mine production.

With first production targeted for 2027, the Crawford mine is expected to have a 41-year life, producing a total of 3.54 billion lb. of nickel, plus 52.9 million lb. of cobalt, 490,000 oz. of palladium and platinum, 58 million tonnes of iron, and 6.2 million lb. of chromium.

The Crawford project also includes a permanent carbon storage component, making it a potential net-zero contributor of carbon dioxide over its lifetime, supporting Canada’s 2050 net-zero emissions target and environmental commitments.

“By supporting these studies, the federal government is investing the timely development of sustainable infrastructure to ensure a stable source of critical minerals, foster economic growth, create over 1500 high-paying jobs, and advance its commitment to net-zero carbon targets when Crawford is in production,” Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel, commented.

Earlier this month, the company took a key step toward advancing the Crawford project with the submission of critical documentation with the Canadian government outlining its potential environmental, social and economic impacts. A positive assessment is required in the federal permitting process, which the company anticipates to complete next year.

The federal funding for the electrical infrastructure studies will come from Natural Resources Canada’s Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund (CMIF). It follows an announcement this week by NRCan of an investment of C$13.8 million in Northern Ontario’s road infrastructure to support several other mining projects.

US Strategic Metals (USSM) and Stillwater Critical Minerals (TSXV: PGE) have entered into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that includes lobbying collaboration to the US government, metallurgical and mineral processing development, offtake and logistics, and potential strategic financing.

Stillwater Critical Minerals is currently developing its flagship Stillwater West project, which is host to a nickel-PGE (platinum group elements)-copper-cobalt (plus gold) deposit situated in the Stillwater mining district of Montana.

USSM is planning to mine what it considers to be the largest cobalt reserve in North America. It holds an 18-year mineral supply of cobalt (plus nickel and copper) on a 7.3-square-kilometre site in Missouri, known as the Madison mine project.

USSM currently has an has an offtake relationship with Glencore (LON: GLEN), and in August was tapped by the Export-Import Bank of the United States for a loan package worth $400 million with a term of 15 years to support the development of its mining and metallurgical project.

The goal of USSM, said the company, is to build a large critical metal supply chain that provides reliable, traceable and conflict-free battery metals to the country.

“USSM aims to significantly expand production in the coming years and, as such, is successfully developing relationships with raw materials suppliers to allow it to meet rapidly growing critical metal demand,” CEO Stacy Hastie stated in a news release.

“Stillwater West fits this mandate extremely well, for its scale, grade and suite of critical minerals, nearly all of which the US is heavily reliant upon imports,” she said, adding that it is “one of the most important potential future sources of at least eight critical minerals”, and its development is “perfectly in line” with the US government’s mandate on securing domestic supply of these materials.

Stillwater Critical Minerals CEO Michael Rowley said the MOU has the potential to accelerate necessary engineering and metallurgical studies and follow-on to the company’s expanding base of government grant funding and partnerships with the US Geological Survey, Cornell University and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory for CO2 sequestration, hydrogen and hydrometallurgical studies.

“This MOU also reflects our broad alignment on ESG values and a shared vision for a large-scale, low-carbon American critical mineral supply chain based in an iconic and famously metal-rich US mining district that has produced critical minerals for over a century,” Rowley said.

The surplus will widen to 104,000 metric tons from 86,000 tons this year as Indonesia’s output of low-grade nickel pig iron is expected to rise by 11.3% to 1.67 million tons, SMM said during its half-year market outlook presentation.

The country’s production of high-grade nickel is also forecast to grow, it added.

Global demand for the metal in 2025 was seen increasing by 7.1% from this year to 3.55 million tons, while supply was likely to climb 7.4% to 3.65 million tons, SMM said.

Supply and demand in a lower purity form of so-called Class 2 nickel is expected to be roughly balanced next year despite higher NPI supply from Indonesia, SMM executive officer Yusuke Niwa said.

“But we expect a surplus in (the almost-pure) Class 1 nickel due to output expansion by Indonesia’s new smelters,” he said.

Nickel is primarily used in the stainless steel sector, but is also a critical component in lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles, where demand is set to surge in the coming years.

SMM, which supplies cathode materials for the Panasonic lithium-ion batteries used in Tesla EVs, predicts that global demand for nickel used in batteries will grow to around 520,000 tons in 2025 from about 470,000 tons this year.

However, Niwa expressed caution about the outlook, noting: “The EV market environment looks quite difficult, except in China.”

“While we anticipate next year’s demand to grow by 50,000 tons from this year… there is a possibility it may fall short of that projection,” he added.

(By Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Jan Harvey)

Antam – through its subsidiary nickel miner PT Gag Nikel – bought shares in PT Jiu Long Metal Industry, a metal company established in 2020 and controlled by Eternal Tsingshan Group Ltd, the Indonesian company said late on Monday.

The smelter is located in Weda Bay industrial park, according to data from the North Maluku government.

Antam’s transaction chimed with the government’s requirements for miners to process their ore domestically, the exchange filing showed.

In a series of transactions related to the stake deal, PT Gag Nikel will also supply ore to a unit of Tsingshan and extend loan to Jiu Long, the filing said.

Eternal Tsingshan did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

(By Fransiska Nangoy, Bernadette Christina and Ananda Teresia; Editing by Martin Petty and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission offered little to investors, who had been expecting more stimulus measures on China’s first day back from a week-long public holiday.

Iron ore futures in Singapore fell more than 5% after rising by nearly that amount ahead of the briefing. Copper dropped to its lowest in two weeks in a sharp sell-off across base metals, while investor disappointment was reflected across wider Chinese markets.

“There had been talk that the NDRC may announce trillions of yuan in stimulus, but it came out with nothing at all,” said Hang Jiang, head of trading at Yonggang Resources Co. in Shanghai.

Iron ore futures are still up almost a fifth from late-September on optimism that Beijing’s earlier moves to boost the economy would end a period of deep gloom for China’s steel industry. Demand for the steelmaking ingredient has suffered amid a years-long property crisis.

Investors are still looking for more concrete signs that the government’s pledges will feed through to real economic activity. The NDRC officials said they would speed up spending, but their comments on investment and support for low-income groups were largely reiterations of previous pledges.

“The stimulus from China so far is not going to yield a significant turnaround for base metals,” Yonggang’s Jiang said. “We need to see stimulus feed into a real pickup in consumption before we can see big price rallies.”

Not enough

Copper and other metals have now wiped out most of their gains since Beijing rolled out a blitz of policy measures in the days before China’s Golden Week break. Tuesday morning’s briefing by the NDRC was announced over the weekend, triggering a wave of speculation about additional pro-growth moves.

Investors are “disappointed” after putting such high expectations on the NDRC briefing, said Jia Zheng, head of trading at Shanghai Soochow Jiuying Investment Co. Sustaining recent price gains requires more fund inflows, she said.

Iron ore fell 5.1% to $105.10 a ton on the Singapore Exchange as of 11:49 a.m. in London. Copper dropped 1.7% to $9,766 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, heading for its lowest close since Sept. 23. Aluminum, zinc, nickel, lead and tin all lost more than 2%.

Base metals should get support from the “material shift in China policy” since last month, Citigroup Inc. said in a note ahead of the NDRC briefing. But other global risks — from the US election to weak European growth and Middle East conflicts — would likely keep a lid on prices beyond the near term, they said.