December futures trading on the CME briefly hit $2801.70 an ounce, topping the all-time high set last week, in overnight trade.

The rally comes despite rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar, which usually would have weighed on the precious metal. This brings bullion’s year-to-date gain to approximately 34%, making it one of the best-performing assets of 2024.

“Market positioning is elevated ahead of the election but also in anticipation of further Fed rate cuts and broader market and geopolitical uncertainty,” Standard Chartered Plc analyst Suki Cooper said in a note quoted by Bloomberg.

“Under a Trump-win scenario, markets are focused on the implications of wider tariffs, as well as inflationary pressures as a result of such tariffs.”

“Gold trades up on the week, despite deflating risk premiums elsewhere, confirming the focus remains the US election and especially the prospect of a Trump 2.0,” Saxo Bank said in a note to Bloomberg.

“It may bring greater policy disruption, trade tariffs and increased geopolitical risks.”

Global gold demand swelled about 5% in the third quarter, setting a record for the period and lifting consumption above $100 billion for the first time, according to the World Gold Council. The increase — which saw volumes climb to 1,313 tons — was underpinned by stronger investment flows from the West, including more high-net-worth individuals. 

Gold’s rally also follows new economic data released Tuesday that showed US job openings fell far more than expected while consumer confidence rose above all estimates. Investors now await more data later this week to further gauge the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates.

Markets are currently pricing in an almost 100% chance for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the US central bank in November.

“Gold should retain its upward bias and may even flirt with $2,800 in the days ahead, as long as US election risks continue weighing on market sentiment, while Fed rate cut expectations remain intact,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group, on Tuesday.

(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)

Total transaction value as of Sept. 30 was $4.76 billion, down more than 50% compared to the $10.52 billion registered in the full year 2023, according to S&P’s latest report.

Steel producer H2GS AB’s (H2 Green Steel) $4.14 billion funding round in January led all private equity and venture capital deals in the metals and mining sector during that period.

The number of announced deals in the first three quarters totalled 59, on the year on track for the fewest deals in five years.

In the third quarter alone, total deal value plunged 80% year over year to $240 million from $1.22 billion, and the deal count dwindled to 15 from 37.

Antti Gronlund, managing director of UK-based private equity Appian Capital Advisory, said higher acquisition debt financing rates and reduced venture capital deployments have contributed to lower totals.

Transactions in 2023 may have benefited from large deals and non-sector-focused investors attracted by upbeat headlines focused on electric vehicles, which require significant amounts of critical minerals. Those headlines are now more subdued, affecting deal appetite, Gronlund explained.

Private equity investing is challenging because the sector is “working capital intensive,” added Kyle Mumford, partner at KPS Capital Partners LP.

“There are no small capital requests in a metals business. There’s only really big ones,” Mumford continued. “Unlike other businesses, in metals and mining, change in profitability and manufacturing to meet the demand that may be out there takes a long time and is really hard. It can mean a new equipment or a new mill or a new recycling capacity.

“Those are expensive and don’t often meet typical private equity return profiles.”

Still, opportunity exists for further investment in the coming years. Appian’s Gronlund noted that the mining industry is expected to require about $2.1 trillion by 2050 to support global net-zero goals, citing BloombergNEF estimates.

“A significant portion of that will need to come from private capital sources,” he added.

The rather hopefully named Beijing “bazooka” was expected to be followed up by another stimulus blitz the following week, this time focused more on fiscal policy and infrastructure investment, but the latter turned out to be a damp squib, with prices down 9% since then. 

Next week could be another make or break moment for the copper price in a highly anticipated meeting of the Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress, the country’s highest lawmaking body, scheduled for 4–8 November. 

Copper markets will be hoping for more detail of the scale and nature of Beijing’s stimulus measures, but in a note the copper service of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence points out that the announcement did not mention debt or fiscal policy on the agenda, so it remains to be seen how forthcoming policymakers are with details: 

“If the meeting fails to shine further light on the scale of fiscal stimulus, we expect copper prices to come under renewed pressure. We note that copper prices have trended significantly above their implied relationship with the USD index since the announcement of China’s stimulus ‘blitz’ in late September. 

“If Chinese authorities follow through on the market’s expectations, we could see a permanent step-change in this relationship (just like we did post-COVID). Conversely, if the market loses faith in China’s stimulus efforts and deems them inadequate or superficial, our regression analysis suggests that copper stands to drop by close to $1,000 per tonne.”

Using data from 2022, the study estimates that the US generated 13,767 kg of gold that year worth around £882.8 million from its e-waste. The gold was recycled from a world-leading 4.1 billion kg of wastes, owing to the nation’s consumerist culture.

In second place is China, which recycled fewer than half of the gold than its main rival at 6,630 kg worth £425.1 million. In 2022, the world’s top consumer recycled 1.9 billion kg of documented e-waste, contributed by its role as a global e-waste hub since the 1970s.

Germany ranks third in estimated gold value from recycled e-waste, with 3,249 kg of gold worth approximately £208.4 million. The country processed 956.6 million kg of waste in 2022, a result of strict EU policies that require responsible collection and recycling.

Rounding out the top five are two other G7 nations — France and Japan — with 2,924 kg (£187.5 million) and 2,084 kg (£133.6 million) respectively.

The country that recycled the least amount of gold in 2022 was Azerbaijan, with just 10,000 kg. This could be for a range of reasons, such as a limited e-waste management infrastructure or the lack of regulations, the study says.

On a per-capita basis, Norway led the way with 19.42 kg of documented and recycled waste from electronic goods in 2022, which could generate an estimated 0.066 gram of gold worth £4.23.

For the full list of the world’s top gold recyclers from e-waste, click here.

As part of the deal, Aura will obtain a 100% interest in Bluestone’s Cerro Blanco gold project in southeast Guatemala as well as the adjacent Mita geothermal project.

The Cerro Blanco project has faced challenges from the Guatemalan government, which disputed the January permit amendment allowing its transition to an open-pit mining operation.

Bluestone is 27%-owned by the Lundin family trust and had initially planned the $411 million gold project near the border with El Salvador.

Cerro Blanco aims to yield 2.7 million oz. of gold over 14 years, based on a 2022 feasibility study. It hosts measured and indicated resources of 63.5 million tonnes at 1.5 grams gold and 6.6 grams silver per tonne for 3 million oz. and 13.5 million oz. of the metals, respectively.

Aura stated that upon closing the transaction, it intends to evaluate alternatives for the potential future development of Cerro Blanco.

“Cerro Blanco stands as a world-class deposit that has encountered both social and institutional hurdles. We are confident that, over the next few years, by integrating it with Aura’s 360 vision, we can refine our strategic approach to make Cerro Blanco another flagship project,” said Rodrigo Barbosa, CEO of Aura.

Cerro Blanco is located approximately 230 km from the Minosa operating mine in Honduras, where Aura produced 65,927 ounces of gold in 2023. In addition, Aura has operating mines in Mexico and Brazil.

Over the last 12 months, Aura achieved production of 270,000 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs). With the acquisition of Bluestone, Aura expects its growth pipeline to expand beyond 450,000 GEOs in the coming years.

Shares of Aura Minerals rose 2.35% following the news, bringing the company’s market capitalization to $910 million. Bluestone’s shares fell 1.5% by 12:00 p.m. EDT, for a market capitalization of $37.6 million.

The acquisition, said Minera Alamos, would transform the company into a diversified North American gold producer beyond its existing Mexican operations led by the Santana gold mine in Sonora. The addition of Copperstone could add approximately 40,000 oz. of annual gold production, based on the project’s preliminary economic assessment (PEA) from last year.

The economics are based on a total resource estimate of 1.2 million tonnes grading 7.74 grams per tonne gold (300,000 contained oz.) in the measured and indicated category and 970,000 tonnes grading 6.30 g/t gold (197,000 contained oz.) in the inferred category.

The 2023 PEA represents a restart plan for the past-producing mine at Copperstone that produced a reported 514,000 oz. of gold between 1987 and 1993 from open pit mining and later had a brief period of underground mining. Since all facilities envisioned in the PEA are located in “brownfields” locations, the project’s water and surface rights have in place for years, and the mine is fully permitted for restart.

The PEA gave Copperstone an after-tax net present value of $89.3 million (using a 5% discount rate and $2,000 gold price), an internal rate of return of 71.1% and a payback period of 1.3 years. The initial mine life is estimated at 5.7 years, and initial capital at $36.3 million.

The reduced upfront capital is a result of the existing site infrastructure that had been installed from previous mining activities at Copperstone. According to Minera Alamos, a significant portion of the on-site infrastructure is in good repair and is available for the restart of site operations.

“The Copperstone project is an ideal addition to our portfolio of low-capex, late-stage development projects. The site has significant infrastructure and permits in place which will allow our technical group to quickly advance the project into production,” stated Darren Koningen, CEO of Mineral Alamos.

Acquisition terms

To acquire Sabre, Minera Alamos will issue approximately 76.5 million common shares to Sabre shareholders, representing a share exchange ratio of 0.693 to 1. Sabre will also settle certain debts with creditors by issuing shares at a 15% discount.

Upon completion of these transactions, existing Minera Alamos and Sabre shareholders will own 86% and 14% of the combined company, respectively.

Shares in Sabre Gold Mines nearly doubled following the announcement, up from C$0.12 at Friday’s market close to a 52-week high of C$0.23 on Monday morning. The gold junior has a market capitalization of C$17.6 million.

Minera Alamos’ shares fell 2.6% to C$0.38 apiece by 11:50 a.m. in Toronto, for a market capitalization of C$174.8 million.

Bolstered portfolio

Minera Alamos estimates that the addition of Sabre’s Copperstone project will increase its total gold resource inventory by 35% to almost 1.9 million oz., including a 60% increase in estimated measured and indicated resources. The acquisition cost is estimated at only $43/oz.

The acquisition adds another potential low-capex mine on top of the company’s Santana project, which entered production in 2021 and is currently going through the start-up of operations at the new Nicho Main deposit. Its Cerro de Oro oxide gold project in northern Zacatecas also has considerable past drilling, and the proposed mining project is currently being guided through the permitting process. The company also owns the La Fortuna open pit gold project in Durango, which has its main federal permits in place.

Minera Alamos intends to build out its Mexican assets in phases, with an eye on becoming a 150,000 oz./year gold producer. The addition of Copperstone, the company says, provides visibility to a further visibility to that goal.

The new project is expected to have a relatively rapid construction schedule that is currently anticipated at approximately 12 months. Minera Alamos said it is already in the process of optimizing new engineering design/plans for the project construction and is expanding its technical group to manage the increased activities.

The junior, which acquired the Yellowknife project in The Northwest Territories two years ago, is selling 2.7 million shares for C$5.6575 apiece in an unbrokered private placement that’s due to close by Nov. 12. The deal included an additional 1.6 million shares at $3.65 each to the same shareholder.

The capital raising is excellent news for Li-FT as it’s now likely fully funded with C$27 million for a Yellowknife preliminary economic assessment due by next June and environmental studies for permitting, Cormark Securities mining analyst Shannon Gill said in a note on Friday.

“The strategic investment is another positive indicator for the sector, and hard rock lithium assets in particular,” Gill said.

“Continued M&A in the lithium space supports a potential pricing floor — recalling SQM (NYSE: SQM) and Hancock Prospecting’s May takeover of pre-resource Azure Minerals for a more than 40% premium and Pilbara Minerals’ (ASX: PLS) 67% premium offer to acquire Brazilian developer Latin Resources in August.”

Secrecy trend?

The secret investment could be part of a mini-trend among juniors after undisclosed investors bought the same stakes in Asante Gold (CSE: ASE) in September to expand gold mines in Ghana, Collective Mining (TSX: CNL; NYSE: CNL) in March for its Colombian properties and Foran Mining (TSX: FOM) last December. There was also TDG Gold (TSXV: TDG) last October.

The C$200 million financing for Foran to advance its McIlvenna Bay copper-zinc-gold-silver project was a mixture of equity and debt. It included the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Fund and Fairfax Financial. Fairfax holds 23% of Foran after C$360 million in financing this year, which also saw Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM; NYSE: AEM) take a 9.9% stake.

The TDG Gold investment was part of a private placement aimed at raising C$2.75 million. The proceeds targeted exploration at TDG’s projects in British Columbia, including the former producing Shasta gold-silver mine in the Toodoggone district.

Securities rules allow a backer to buy less than 10% of a publicly traded company anonymously. However, companies with 5% who are intending to buy more must notify the market, and investments considered material to the company must usually be disclosed in quarterly financial statements.

Li-FT CEO Francis MacDonald may comment on the undisclosed investor when the financing closes, investor relations manager Daniel Gordon told The Northern Miner Group by email on Friday.

Shares in Li-FT Power closed C$0.02 higher at C$4.00 apiece on Wednesday in Toronto after the financing news. They were at C$3.92 by mid-afternoon Friday, valuing the company at C$154.6 million.

Yellowknife project

Li-FT said the financing would be used to advance the resource-stage Yellowknife project with more exploration as it plans the economic study by June.

Cormark’s Gill noted the project consists of clustered spodumene pegmatite dykes – similar to Sigma Lithium‘s (TSXV: SGML; NASDAQ: SGML) Grota do Cirilo project in Brazil – in a mining-friendly jurisdiction adjacent to the Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO; LSE: RIO; ASX: RIO) and De Beers diamond operations. He said the project could potentially generate 112 million tonnes of ore and has a skilled technical team behind it.

“As first movers in lithium exploration in the area, Li-FT’s land package hosts high potential for additional regional success as it continues to explore,” Gill said.

“Along with a responsible approach to land use that involves all stakeholders and proximity to road and rail infrastructure, Li-FT’s potentially generational Yellowknife project should set it apart from its peers in attracting future development partners and offtake agreements — necessities for developing North America’s future lithium assets.”

The project comprises seven targets along the all-season Ingraham Trail highway. The site hosts 50.4 million inferred tonnes grading 1% lithium oxide (Li₂O) for 506,000 tonnes of Li₂O, or 1.25 million tonnes of lithium carbonate-equivalent, according to the resource issued this month.

CEO MacDonald said at the time the resource ranked among the 10 largest hard-rock projects in the Americas and had “excellent potential to significantly grow through further drill programs.”

An earlier version of this story said Li-FT Power has Canada’s third-largest hard rock lithium resource. It is instead the third-largest maiden hard rock lithium resource.

Under a private placement agreement announced on Friday, Agnico will purchase approximately 33.9 million units of ATEX at C$1.63 per unit, representing a 15% premium over ATEX’s stock price from a week ago and 12.4% over its previous day’s closing price.

By 11:10 a.m. ET in Toronto, ATEX Resources traded 11% higher at C$1.61, having touched a 52-week high of C$1.66 a share earlier in the session. The company has a market capitalization of C$336.2 million ($242.3 million)

The Agnico investment will support ATEX’s exploration activities at the Valeriano project. The property covers approximately 61.3 sq. km and is host to a large copper-gold porphyry deposit, below a near-surface oxidized epithermal gold deposit that extends from surface to a depth of 100 metres.

Since 2021, ATEX has completed multiple phases of drilling to test the mineralization at Valeriano, beginning with the gold oxide deposit in the initial phase then extending to the porphyry system.

Last year, it produced a mineral resource estimate totalling 1.44 billion tonnes grading 0.49% copper and 0.21 g/t gold, all in the inferred category. The porphyry deposit makes up most of this resource — 1.41 billion tonnes at 0.50% copper and 0.20 g/t — and contains a higher-grade core totaling 200 million tonnes at 0.62% copper and 0.29 g/t gold.

“This transaction results in ATEX being well capitalized through 2025 to execute on our future drill programs and to continue defining this deposit while also continuing to de-risk and conduct engineering studies,” commented ATEX CEO Ben Pullinger in a news release.

In addition to the private placement, the company also announced that it will repay the entire outstanding balance on its credit facility totaling $15 million through the issuance of equity. A total of 7.9 million units at the same price of the offering (C$1.63) and 5.5 million shares priced at C$1.42 each will be issued to its lenders (Firelight Investments, Beedie Capital and Trinity Capital Partners).

Moreover, ATEX has arranged a private placement with recently appointed board member Rick McCreary, who will purchase C$500,000 worth of units, also at the same price of the private placement.

Upon closing of the above transactions, Agnico would become one of ATEX’s largest shareholders, with a shareholding of 13% on an undiluted basis.

Under an option agreement signed Thursday, Kinross can earn a 65% interest in Puma’s Williams Brook, Portage and Jonpol properties by spending at least C$16.75 million on exploration during a five-year period, including a firm commitment of C$2 million for at least 5,000 metres of drilling within the first 18 months. Puma will remain the project operator during this period.

Marcel Robillard, Puma’s CEO, said that most of the initial C$2 million expenditure will be directed towards drilling and other identified targets on the company’s flagship Williams Brook property, and the injection of cash by Kinross over the next five years will “significantly accelerate exploration and unlock the project’s value.”

“Kinross’ commitment represents a stamp of approval on Williams Brook’s potential, and having Puma as the operator speaks to Kinross’ confidence in the strength of our exploration team,” Robillard said.

Since 2021, Puma has spent C$12.5 million on exploring the property and made several gold discoveries. Its current focus is on the high-grade Lynx zone, where drilling has returned results up to 5 grams per tonne gold over 50.15 metres. The mineralization at Lynx has so far been traced over a distance of 750 metres along strike, a width of 100 metres and a depth of 200 metres.

Combined with its Portage and Jonpol properties, Puma’s land package covers more than 490 square kilometres of prospective gold holdings near the Rocky Brook Millstream Fault, a major regional structure responsible for the gold deposition in the region.

“We believe in the region’s potential to host Canada’s next major gold camp. I am delighted to welcome Kinross, the first major gold producer to establish a presence in New Brunswick,” Robillard said in Thursday’s news release. Upon exercise of Kinross’ option, the companies would then form a 65/35 joint venture.

In addition to the option agreement, Kinross also intends to purchase approximately 16.86 million of Puma’s shares at C$0.06 per share for roughly C$1 million in proceeds, which the latter will use for its other projects. Upon completion, Kinross would hold 9.9% of Puma’s outstanding share capital.

Shares of Puma Exploration gained C$0.03 or 50% to C$0.09 by 1:50 p.m. ET following the Kinross investment. This gives the gold junior a market capitalization of C$13 million.

In June, McEwen Copper announced a private placement financing of up to $70 million through the issuance of approximately 2.33 million shares at $30 per share. Under the first tranche, the McEwen unit received a $14 million investment its parent company and a $5 million investment from Rob McEwen, its chairman and chief owner.

Nuton’s $35 million investment represents the second tranche of that financing, with the purchase of nearly 1.17 million shares. Two other investors also participated in this tranche for a total of $2 million.

Together with the first tranche, McEwen Copper has now raised a total of $56 million for the Los Azules project.

Los Azules project

Los Azules is an open-pit copper deposit located 80 km northwest of the town of Calingasta and 6 km east of the border with Chile at an elevation of 3,500 metres in the Andes Mountains. The extent of mineralization along strike exceeds 4 km and the distance across strike is approximately 2.2 km.

The copper resource contains 10.9 billion lb. in ore that grades 0.40% copper in the indicated category and 26.7 billion lb. in material averaging 0.31% copper in the inferred category. This resource is expected to support average production of 322 million lb. of copper in cathodes per year over a projected 27-year life.

According to a June 2023 preliminary economic assessment, Los Azules would have an estimated after-tax net present value (at a discount rate of 8%) of $2.7 billion and internal rate of return of 21.2%, based on an assumed copper price of $3.75/lb. Its payback period is 3.2 years.

McEwen Copper is currently working a bankable feasibility study for the project, which is scheduled for publication in the first half of 2025.

Shareholding update

The copper subsidiary was created by McEwen Mining in mid-2021 with a view of maximizing the value of its copper assets. A year later, it received its first investment from Nuton, while also establishing a partnership with the Rio venture to assess the potential application of its heap leach technology at Los Azules.

According to the companies, heap leaching would offer superior economic and environmental benefits over the conventional milling methods. The project is also expected to be powered by 100% renewable energy, with a commitment to reach carbon neutrality by 2038.

Following the latest round of financing, Nuton now owns 17.2% of McEwen Copper on a fully diluted basis, nearly doubling its initial shareholding. Its other notable shareholders are: McEwen Mining (46.4%), Stellantis (18.3%), Rob McEwen (12.7%) and Victor Smorgon Group 3.0%.

With the new share issuances, McEwen Copper now has approximately 32.8 million common shares outstanding, giving it a post-money market value of $984 million.

In combined battery capacity deployed – a better indicator of battery materials demand than unit sales alone – the global electric car market expanded by 22% so far this year. 

In total, 505.6 GWh of fresh battery power hit the globe’s roads from January through August, according to data from Toronto-based EV supply chain research firm Adamas Intelligence.

The robust growth rate also comes despite a noticeable swing towards hybrid vehicles, which have inherently smaller batteries and therefore contained metal. 

The combined battery capacity of plug-in hybrid vehicles steered onto roads globally for the first time this year is up 70% versus a must more sedate pace for full electric passenger vehicles of 15%. At the same time the average battery capacity of plug-ins is also rising, up 14% this year to 23kWh, more than a third of the average full electric vehicle.

For miners supplying the EV battery industry, the news remain negative: when pairing metals demand with prices in the supply chain, declines this year are brutal. 

The latest data based on EV registrations in over 110 countries show the sales weighted average monthly dollar value of the lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite contained in the batteries​​ of the average EV based on global end-user registrations, battery capacity and chemistries.

Put it all together and the raw materials bill for the average EV is now down to $537 compared to $1,342 in August 2023 and a monthly peak of more than $1,900 at the beginning of last year, according to Adamas Intelligence analysis.      

The downtrend is led by lithium where the sales weighted average value per EV is down 75% over the past year to $236 and cobalt, which at little over $46 is 42% below the value reached in August 2023. Manganese is the only battery raw material in positive territory this year, up 3% but the raw material is also down 8% compare to the same month last year. For anode material, graphite loadings and values have held mostly steady at just under $26 per average EV.

The value of nickel in the average EV battery is down 26% as LFP battery chemistries continue to take global markets. LFP batteries represented 42% of the global total in terms of capacity deployed in GWh in August.

That compares to a 32% share during the same month last year, more than offsetting the long-running trend towards high-nickel cathodes, and the growing popularity of NCM batteries for larger plug-in and range-extending hybrids, where the energy density of nickel-based cathodes makes more sense given the weight of these vehicles. 

For a fuller analysis of the battery metals market check out the latest Northern Miner print and digital editions. 

* Frik Els is Editor at Large for MINING.COM and Head of Adamas Inside, providing news and analysis based on Adamas Intelligence data.

CEO Tristan Pascall said in a conference call to discuss third quarter results, that the company was open to partnerships, particularly in Zambia, as long as they serve the interests of the business, the country’s government and all stakeholders.

While the names of the firms involved are yet to be disclosed, media reports last week suggested that Saudi Arabia’s Manara Minerals was the one close to a deal to acquire a minority stake in the Canadian miner assets.

The potential deal with Manara, estimated to be worth between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, has garnered attention due to the increasing demand for copper and nickel, considered essential to the energy transition.

The assets could have also attracted interest from Chinese companies such as Zijin Mining Group Co. and Jiangxi Copper Co., which is First Quantum’s second-biggest shareholder, according to market rumours.

For First Quantum, a stake sale in its Kansanshi and Sentinel copper mines would provide much-needed relief from its mounting debt, which escalated after the Panama government ordered the shutdown of its flagship Cobre Panama mine.

The Canadian company is awaiting a decision on the mine’s future and seeking permission from Panama’s new government to export 121,000 tonnes of copper concentrate stockpiled at the shuttered mine. This approval is crucial for the company, which is spending between $11 million and $13 million per month to maintain the mine, Pascall said.

The executive cautioned that while President Mulino said his government intends to address the issue in early 2025, without significant progress in the coming months, cost-cutting measures, including workforce reductions, may become necessary.

(With files from Reuters, Bloomberg)

Spot gold dropped 1.0% to $2,718.79 an ounce by 12:10 p.m. ET after briefly hitting an all-time high of $2,758.25 in the morning trading. US gold futures also fell 1.0% to $2,734.00 an ounce in New York.

Bullion was down as much as 1.5% earlier in the session, with some traders exiting positions amid signs that the precious metal’s recent rally to successive highs may be excessive.

Gold’s relative strength index has been above the overbought level of 70 for the past three sessions, according to Bloomberg data.

A stronger US dollar and rising bond yields also weighed on the metal, whose price has surged by more than 30% in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s pivot to interest rate cuts. The rally also intensified as uncertainties surrounding the US presidential race and the Middle East conflict grew.

Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper expects further upside risk in the coming weeks. The bank sees gold averaging $2,800 an ounce in the fourth quarter, with prices set to average $2,900 for the first three months of next year.

Analysts from Citi Research have a similar outlook. The bank recently upgraded its three-month gold price view to $2,800 per ounce from $2,700 previously, adding that its 6- to 12-month forecast is $3,000.

(With files from Bloomberg)

The primary objective of the program was to infill the near-surface inferred resources that define the up-dip extension of RPM North core zone, a high-grade discovery located in the southern part of the Estelle project area. Previous drilling at RPM North returned gold grades as high as 11.1 grams per tonne.

The secondary objective was to extend drilling from current RPM North resource and test a potential link with the newly discovered RPM Valley zone situated 150 metres to the southwest. Previous drilling indicated that the RPM North deposit remains wide open to that direction.

Backed by the latest drill results, Nova considers the 2024 program to have accomplished both objectives. In particular, it was able to extend the RPM North core zone to surface with over 20 board intercepts from grading over 5 g/t gold and a high of 52.7 g/t. Highlighting the new results was one intercept of 29 metres at 7.1 g/t from surface.

“The 2024 drill results have confirmed a broad zone of high-grade mineralization starting at surface at RPM North. This should prove positive for our upcoming studies focused on executing our current strategy to fast track development of RPM as a scale-able low capex/high margin starter operation,” Nova Minerals CEO Christopher Gerteisen said in a news release.

The new results, combined with that from last year’s program, are expected to support Nova’s mineral resource update for RPM North due later this year, as well as the pre-feasibility study that is underway. Nova anticipates that the 2023-24 drilling will “add significant ounces” to the measured and indicated categories, which currently total 330,000 oz. at 2.4 g/t.

The company is looking to commence the starter mine at RPM as soon as possible to generate cash flow for the larger 500 km² Estelle project located along Alaska’s Tintina gold belt. An updated economic study is currently being prepared for the project, which comprises four deposits across two main areas (Korbel and RPM). Their combined resources in all categories are estimated at 1.1 billion tonnes grading 0.3 g/t for 9.9 million oz.

According to Gerteisen, the Estelle project remains one of the largest undeveloped gold projects in the world, with significant upside remaining with gold, antimony, copper, silver and other critical elements.

Nova Minerals’ stock rose 11.3% by 11:45 a.m. ET on the Nasdaq following the new drill results. The company’s market capitalization is just under $40.6 million.

The report pinned the after-tax net present value at $222 million (at a 5% discount rate) and gave a 40% internal rate of return. The company, with a market cap of C$100 million, says it expects the $87 million mine to achieve payback within two years.

“With such positive parameters, we are confident we will be able to advance the project very quickly,” CEO Glenn Jessome said in a news release.

Shares in the Halifax, Nova Scotia-based company plunged 15.5% Tuesday to C$0.275, ranging between C$0.135 and C$0.355 over the past 12 months. But Jessome said management now has a “clear path” to making a construction decision.

Silver Tiger plans to develop a modest, open pit, heap-leach mine at El Tigre. The 10 year mine plan will see El Tigre in total produce 8.6 million oz. silver and 408,000 oz. gold. The project is expected to generate an undiscounted after-tax cash flow of $318 million over its life.

The report estimates all-in sustaining costs of $14.40 per silver-equivalent ounce.

The open-pit design benefits from a low strip ratio of 1.7:1 and mineralization averages 48 grams silver-equivalent per tonne in the pit from surface, enabling efficient operations. Initial processing capacity will start at 7,500 tonnes per day, but a $15 million expansion could see it scaling up to 15,000 tonnes per day by year four.

The prefeasibility study was based on the Stockwork Zone outlined in an accompanying resource update using $26 per oz. silver and $2,159 per oz. gold. The new El Tigre resource estimate holds 61.8 million tonnes of oxide and sulphide material in the measured and indicated categories. It grades 16 grams silver per tonne for 31.3 million oz. of metal, and 0.4 gram gold for 778,000 oz. of contained gold.

Underground upside

The project also holds an out-of-pit measured and indicated resource of 5.3 million tonnes at 255 silver-equivalent for 44 million oz., and 10.1 million tonnes inferred at 216 grams silver-equivalent for 70 million ounces. Jessome says the company plans to wrap an initial economic assessment around the deposit in the first half of next year.

Silver Tiger believes critical mass for the underground project means hitting an exploration target of 10 to 12 million tonnes at 225 to 265 grams of silver equivalent for 73 to 100 million silver-equivalent ounces.

This near-mine underground resource provides long-term resource upside, coupled with the fact that only 30% of the 284 sq. km property has been explored. The company plans to begin underground drilling immediately.

Shares of Guanajuato Silver gained 0.9% at C$0.28 apiece following the Sprott investment. This gives the Mexico-focused precious metals miner a market capitalization of approximately C$111 million ($80.2m).

 “We are extremely pleased to welcome the participation of Eric Sprott in this financing. His continued support is a strong endorsement of Guanajuato Silver’s vision and potential,” CEO James Anderson said in a news release.

He added that this financing will provide the company with necessary capital to accelerate production in response to rapidly rising silver prices. Earlier this week, the price of silver surged to its highest in 12 years, topping $34 an ounce.

Guanajuato Silver currently operates four mines: El Cubo, Valenciana mines complex and San Ignacio mine in Guanajuato, and the Topia mine in northwestern Durango. Last year, the company saw its highest ever production in silver-equivalent terms at 3.5 million ounces, a 64% increase over 2022.

Due to rising precious metals prices, the miner is coming off its best revenue-generating quarter, recording $20.5 million for the second quarter, a 22% improvement over the same period of 2023.

Australia’s Lucapa achieved third-quarter revenue of $16.9 million, an 86% year-on-year increase, driven mainly by the sale of high-quality diamonds, averaging $3,033 per carat. 

This growth was also attributed to the company’s access to higher-grade mining blocks, a result of strategic river diversions aimed at mitigating the impact of flooding at the Lulo operation in Angola.

Nick Selby, Lucapa’s managing director, expressed optimism about the future, especially with the access gained to the higher-grade Lazaria gravel, historically known for producing large, high-value diamonds. 

“We are aiming for a strong finish to the year,” Selby said, noting that the company sold a 176-carat diamond for $3 million, further boosting results.

Africa-focused Petra Diamonds also reported promising figures, with production rising by 7% to 679,625 carats for the quarter ended September 30. The increase was driven by higher grades at the company’s flagship Cullinan mine in South Africa and its Williamson mine in Tanzania.

Petra’s chief executive officer, Richard Duffy, attributed this growth to “solid performances” from these mines, despite weaker market conditions.

To counteract the softness in the rough diamond market, Petra deferred in August the sale of a significant portion of its South African diamonds. Its combined first and second tenders, however, indicated a 13% increase in overall average prices, thanks to an improved product mix, which included a standout 18.85-carat blue diamond from Cullinan that fetched $8.5 million.

Despite ongoing challenges in the global diamond market, both Lucapa and Petra’s results reflect resilience and strategic adjustments, injecting cautious optimism into a sector eager for recovery. 

As both companies continue to leverage high-value diamonds and strategic planning, industry observers remain hopeful for sustained market improvements heading into the end of the year holidays, which tend to help boost diamond sales.

The Americas-focused mid-tier gold miner cut its full-year production forecast to 235,000 oz. at the midpoint, according to operating results for the three months to Sept. 30 issued on Friday.

A pit wall slide in May at Calibre’s Limon Norte mine in Nicaragua hurt production, CEO Darren Hall told a conference call after the results. As well, the company found previous artisanal miners had scooped out more than thought. In Nevada, where production is centred on the Pan mine, output also underperformed expectations.

“This setback is on us—management dropped the ball by not following the plan,” Hall said about Limon Norte. “We’ve now corrected course.”

Calibre said the Valentine project’s capital budget climbed by C$91 million to C$744 million in part because contractors underestimated infrastructure material needs. For instance, cement contributed to about 30% of the cost increase. However, it said the project is on track to start output next year.

The company’s shares closed at C$2.61 on Monday, down 6.5% from Thursday’s close of C$2.79 before the operating update. The stock has dropped about 10% from its 12-month high of C$2.90 earlier this month but is 76% stronger year-over-year.

Analyst perspectives

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Both BMO Capital Markets and Cormark Securities acknowledged the company’s recent stumbles but pointed to long-term potential.

Cormark mining analyst Nicolas Dion sees the company as an “excellent operator” with ample exploration targets. “Even with the cost overrun at Valentine, Calibre remains well funded to see the project through,” Dion said Monday in a note to clients. “We will continue to monitor construction progress, especially as winter nears in Newfoundland.”

Dion noted the firm’s track record and its strong management. He sees a chance for a share price increase once Valentine starts producing.

BMO’s mining analyst Brian Quast maintains an outperform rating on the stock due to the company’s long-term growth plans. He has a target price at C$4.40 per share.

Gold sales

The company reported total gold sales during the quarter of 46,076 oz., well below earlier estimates of 74,000-76,000 ounces. Cash costs rose to $1,580 per oz., driving the company to revise its 2024 all-in sustaining cost guidance to $1,550-$1,600 per oz., up from $1,275-$1,375 forecast earlier.

Calibre plans to boost ore haulage to Nicaragua’s Libertad mill by 30% in the current quarter, targeting production of 70,000-80,000 oz. and a stockpile of 30,000 oz. for 2025. With C$300 million in cash and credit, the company confirmed it is fully funded to complete Valentine’s construction.

The project, which it acquired last year through a buyout of Marathon Gold, may produce 195,000 oz. annually for the first 12 years of a 14.3-year mine life, according to a 2022 feasibility study.

The company already has a three-year, C$30 million earn-in agreement with Glencore (LSE: GLEN), and a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for the project, where mining goes back more than 60 years. Glencore was among a handful of miners in the region, and from 2013 until 2022 operated Bracemac McLeod.

Peter van Alphen, NuVau president and CEO, says listing on the TSX Venture Exchange will help NuVau tap some of the billions of dollars in the province’s funding agencies aimed at mining.

“Quebec is…I would say one of the best if not the best jurisdiction to be in mining,” van Alphen told The Northern Miner in an interview. “(Government funds) will work with you to finance development. But some of them won’t do it for a private company. We’re not primarily an exploration company, we’re a mining company looking to do exploration.”

Glencore deal winding down

NuVau is approaching the end of its deal with Glencore to explore and gain full interest in the Matagami camp, located in the province’s west, about 800 km north of Montreal.

The agreement, which ends next March, includes the option to acquire the infrastructure at Matagami, comprising the Bracemac McLeod mine and its mill

NuVau’s 2023 PEA, which focused on the Caber Complex deposits west of Bracemac McLeod, outlined a project of almost 10 years with a net present value (at 8% discount) of C$115.9 million. Initial capital costs were pegged at C$172.3 million, with a 20% internal rate of return.

Quebec’s helping hand

Quebec is well-known for its institutional funds that back mineral activity, such as Investissement Québec, the provincial pension fund Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, and Diversification of Exploration Investment Partnership (Sidex). Tapping into that ecosystem will help NuVau advance its project faster, van Alphen said.

“We saw them coming as an investor, (and) the credibility that these groups would add to us is of great value to us,” the CEO said. “So we decided to take the company public to bring these groups in.”

While van Alphen says NuVau could use the existing mill at Bracemac McLeod, it needs to build a tailings facility before it’s ready for production, as well as raise C$50 million.

“We’re lucky with our access to infrastructure that we can take advantage of,” he said. “(The mill) has 3,000-tonne-per-day capacity, there’s a rail siding there, and we can ship concentrate there by rail. I don’t like the term, but it’s a hub and spoke. We can own the hub.”

If the listing is successful, the company’s milestones for next year are an updated PEA and submission of permits to the Quebec government. In 2026 it aims to complete a feasibility study, with production starting the same year or in 2027.

“We believe we will be able to take advantage of revenue from production from the existing resource to fund part or possibly all of this exploration going forward,” he said.

Exploration bonanza

Van Alphen stresses that the real prize for NuVau is exploring its vast land package along the Abitibi Greenstone belt. Roughly bordered to the east by the Bracemac McLeod mine, the property runs 85 km to the west, and 30 km from north to south. Maple Gold’s (TSXV: MGM) Joutel mine sits just south of the property.

“It’s very large… and less than 5% of it has had significant exploration,” he said. “It has potential to be a major producer in base metals and precious metals as well.”

Exploration in the Matagami area dates back to 1957, when six companies including Leith Gold Mines, Dome Mines and Iso Uranium Mines merged to form the Mattagami Syndicate. A year later, an agreement between that syndicate, Canadian Exploration and Noranda and McIntyre Mines was made to create Mattagami Lake Mines. Production by various companies, including Glencore, ran from 1963 until 2022, during which almost 60 million tonnes of copper and zinc were produced from 12 mines.

20+ year potential

The Caber deposit, part of Caber Complex, hosts 2.6 million measured and indicated tonnes grading 6.11% zinc, 1.15% copper, 10 grams silver per tonne and 0.21 gram gold for 91,200 tonnes zinc, 17,100 tonnes copper, 481,000 oz. silver and 9,990 oz. gold. Inferred resources total 109,000 tonnes at 4.96% zinc, 1.01% copper, 8.12 grams silver and 0.19 gram gold.

Caber Nord, also in the Caber Complex hosts 1.1 million indicated tonnes at 4.96% zinc, 1.23% copper, 18.1 grams silver and 0.13 gram gold for 54,900 tonnes zinc, 13,600 tonnes copper, 645,000 oz. silver and 4,700 oz. gold. Inferred tonnes come to 5.7 million grading 1.96% zinc, 1.34% copper, 10.3 grams silver and 0.11 gram gold for 112,300 tonnes zinc, 76,700 tonnes copper, 1.8 million oz. silver and 19,800 oz. gold.

Remaining resources under Bracemac McLeod, such as the McLeod Deep and Extension could yield another three or four years of production, according to the PEA. Another target, the Renaissance discovery, a volcanogenic massive sulphide deposit northeast of Caber North, could hold a mine life of more than 20 years. The company plans to start a 10,000-metre drill program at Renaissance this winter.

In total, McEwen will buy 10 million units of Inventus at a price of C$0.04 per unit. Its chairman and chief owner Rob McEwen currently holds approximately 21% of Inventus’ equity, having built his take over the years since Inventus operated under its old name Ginguro Exploration.

Shares of Inventus Mining gained 50% to C$0.045 apiece by 1:20 p.m. ET, for a market capitalization of C$7.6 million.

The company’s main asset is the Pardo paleoplacer gold project located 65 km northeast of the Sudbury mining district. The current exploration target is a near-surface gold-bearing conglomerate reef that ranges from 1 to 4 metres thick.

A 2018 technical report on Pardo outlined three target ranges for the gold-bearing conglomerate based on the limited exploration work to date, with the largest estimated at 12.5 million tonnes grading 3.5 g/t for a gold content of 1.4 million oz.

The conglomerate, if economically feasible, would be subject to low-cost surface strip mining methods, Inventus said on its website. The company had also billed the project as the “first large-scale paleo-placer gold deposit in North America”.

In 2022, Inventus conducted the first phase of a 50,000-tonne advanced exploration bulk sampling program at Pardo, returning an average head grade of 3.4 g/t gold. The bulk sample program has built confidence of the gold grade and paved the way for an initial resource estimate on the property, the company said.

Its stock rose to $5.23 apiece during early trading hours in New York, before pulling back to $5.10 by 11:00 a.m. ET. The company has a market capitalization of approximately $1.25 billion.

According to the company, surface mill and infrastructure construction have reached 90%, with more than $258 million of the project’s budget spent to date. Project commitments total $270 million, representing 99% of the $271 million capital budget.

During the third quarter, 1,051 meters were developed underground, bringing the project’s total to 5,544 meters.

Underground explosive magazines have been completed, and the application for an explosive use permit has been submitted, with approval expected later this year.

According to the company, the focus continues on the lower platform, where concrete work is well underway, and on the tailing storage facility, where underdrain embankment fill and pipe installation are advancing at a good pace.

“We’re in the final construction phase with the finish line in sight,” commented Don Gray, chief operating officer at Endeavour Silver.

Commissioning of the mine is expected in the fourth quarter, with an anticipated 10-year mine life. The Terronera project is situated within the Sierra Madre volcanic belt, which hosts most of Mexico’s silver and gold deposits.

Terronera has total proven and probable reserves of 7.4 million tonnes, grading 197 g/t silver and 2.25 g/t gold. The mine consists of the Terronera and La Luz underground deposits, both of which will be mined using a combination of long-hole and cut-and-fill methods. The processing plant will have a capacity of 2,000 tonnes per day.

A feasibility study forecasts that the project will produce 4 million oz. of silver and 38,000 oz. of gold annually the 10-year period.

Ascot Resources (TSX: AOT) said on Monday it plans to raise at least C$40 million ($29 million) to get its Premier gold project in British Columbia’s Golden Triangle back on track after shutting it down just months into its first gold pour.

The financing will consist of a new $11.25 million loan with the company’s main creditors and a minimum C$25 million private placement of shares priced at C$0.16 that can rise to C$35 million depending on demand.

This funding package, said Ascot chief executive Derek White, will enable the company to undertake mine development activities necessary to advance the Premier Northern Lights (PNL) and Big Missouri (BM) deposits located 25 km from Stewart, BC.

In September, Ascot revealed that the PNL and BM deposits have not been advancing on schedule, leading to insufficient ore feeds to the Premier mill and missed production targets. As a result, it decided to place the Premier project on care and maintenance until further development is completed, which is estimated to take 3-6 months.

At the time, the company had C$15 million in cash, which was enough to endure the suspension of operations for winter season, but additional funding was required to complete the necessary mine development work and restart operations.

Ascot’s shares plummeted to its lowest in over five years (C$0.14) following that announcement, and since then has been hovering between C$0.16 and C$0.19 a share. Monday’s financing sent the stock to C$0.22, for a market capitalization of C$155.3 million.

“While the timeframe and funding required to undertake this work has been challenging for the company, recent actions were required to ensure sustainable feed for profitable mill operations,” CEO White said in Monday’s news release, adding that Ascot is focused on returning to gold production in the second quarter of 2025.

The company achieved first pour at Premier in April and had initially expected to declare commercial production at the historical mine during the third quarter of 2024. Mining is expected to occur from total probable reserves of 3.6 million tonnes grading 5.45 g/t gold and 19.1 g/t silver, containing 637,000 oz. of gold and 2.23 million oz. of silver.

Once upon a time, the Premier mine was the largest gold mine in North America until fire destroyed its surface buildings. Before its closure in 1952, it had produced over 2 million oz. of gold and 45 million oz. of silver.

The company was spun out in July from G Mining Ventures (TSX: GMIN), which acquired Reunion Gold in an C$875 million deal this year for its Oko West development project.

Greenheart is focused on regional assets outside of Oko West in the Guiana Shield. These include the Abuya and Majorodam projects in Guyana and Suriname, respectively.

The financing, at C$0.50 per share and underwritten by Canaccord Genuity and Paradigm Capital, closed 44% higher than the C$25 million offering floated on Sept. 25.

Greenheart shares rose to a 12-month high of C$0.95 on Friday, having touched a low of C$0.45 in that period. It has a market capitalization of C$70 million.

Last month, CEO Justin van der Toorn said in a press release that the company had signed non-binding deal to start due diligence to buy G Mining’s 95-sq.-km IGAB gold project in Suriname. IGAB is 30 km south of Newmont’s (NYSE: NEM, TSX: NGT, ASX: NEM, PNGX: NEM) Merian mine, which hosts nearly 4 million oz. gold in reserves and another 1.5 million oz. in resources.

The early-stage prospect has already produced high-grade gold from artisanal mining, with rocks yielding bonanza 94.2 grams gold per tonne samples.

The goal is to get and maintain a pipeline of up to five or six early-stage exploration projects in Guyana and Suriname “in the near future,” Van der Toorn said in a Sept. 25 release.

Grassroots prospects

Early sampling results IGAB show promising grades, and Greenheart plans to begin detailed exploration by January. The company also plans geological mapping, soil sampling, and geophysical surveys to define drill targets along key structural contacts.

The deal is to fund prospecting, soil sampling and geological mapping at the Majorodam project in Suriname. The target area at Majorodam is on the same fold structure as Zijin Mining’s Saramacca deposit.

Greenheart will also conduct work at its Abuya project in Guyana. Located near Chinese-owned Zijin Mining’s Aurora gold mine, Abuya has shown early promise. Initial mapping is complete, and soil sample results are expected soon.
* This article has been updated to reflect that Zijin Mining now owns the Saramacca deposit, not Iamgold, any longer, as initially stated.

The funding comprises a $35 million (approximately C$48 million) loan facility with Nebari Natural Resources Credit Fund II and a C$25 million bought deal financing facilitated by Raymond James for the sale of over 36.2 million units priced at C$0.69 each. The bought deal was originally set at C$20 million but later increased under the same terms.

By noon ET Friday, shares of West Red Lake had dropped 5.4% to C$0.70 apiece, for a market capitalization of C$190.3 million ($137.9 million).

With this funding, along with existing cash on hand, West Red Lake said it is well positioned to complete its pre-feasibility study for the Madsen mine, as well as other tests and capital programs underway at the site.

“This finance package provides the capital anticipated to restart the Madsen mine, according to our detailed internal mine plan,” CEO Shane Williams said in a news release, adding that the company will “work closely with its partners” to develop a finance package that addresses the balance of the capital required for Madsen.

The Madsen mine was briefly restarted by then owner Pure Gold in 2021 but was shut down a year later due to high costs and inconsistent production. Before that, the historic mine produced 2.5 million oz. of gold at an average grade of 9.7 grams per tonne between 1938 and 1999.

West Red Lake took over the project in June 2023, and has since completed 40,000 metres of definition drilling alongside significant mine engineering and multiple capital projects and studies to support a pre-feasibility study, which is targeted for release within a month.

Following the PFS and closing of the financing package, the company intends to make a formal mine restart decision, followed by mill restart and commissioning. It recently began a test mining program that will run into Q1 2025, after which time the mine will transition to production mining.

Spot gold hit an all-time high of $2,696.62 per ounce earlier before pulling back to $2,686.52 at noon ET for a 0.5% intraday gain. US gold futures saw a similar increase, trading at $2,704.80 per ounce in New York.

Bullion has now risen by more than 30% this year, setting multiple record levels along the way, with the precious metal driven by prospects of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks.

“On top of the concerns in the Middle East, you are also nearing the US election, which is looking like a very closely contested election. And that generates a whole host of uncertainty, and gold often is the place to go in times of uncertainty,” said Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree, in a Reuters note.

Prices are expected to rise even further to as high as $2,941 an ounce over the next 12 months, delegates to the London Bullion Market Association’s annual gathering predicted earlier this week.

“The LBMA poll that came out from Miami earlier in the week, where the base look for gold prices was to rally near $3,000 in the next year and silver doing even better, I think that potential is also just attracting a bit of attention,” commented Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Earlier in the session, prices had backed off from record highs after data showed US retail sales increased slightly more than expected in September, while a Labor Department report said unemployment unexpectedly fell last week.

The data points added to a slew of mixed economic readings recently, reinforcing gold traders’ expectations that the US central bank will continue its rate-cutting path for the rest of the year.

“These were good data points,” noted Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. “I think the Fed wants to get rates lower and they probably have another quarter point coming here at the very least before the end of the year, which is rates get lower, gold should get stronger.”

(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)

Read more: Economic growth the main driver of long-term gold price, WGC research suggests

The Irigaray processing plant is central to the company’s hub-and-spoke production strategy in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin, supporting four fully permitted uranium in-situ recovery (ISR) satellite projects in the area.

Uranium Energy’s Powder River Basin portfolio has an estimated aggregate resource of 62.3 million lb. of U₃O₈ in the measured and indicated category, with an additional 10.7 million lb. in the inferred category.

“The extraordinary growth in nuclear power in the US is creating a new demand paradigm for uranium supply from stable domestic sources,” Uranium Energy CEO Amir Adnani said in a news release.

“Big tech companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Oracle are making significant financial commitments to nuclear energy to provide the electricity needed to power data centers. This approach, investing directly in nuclear generation infrastructure, reflects the realization that nuclear energy offers safe, highly reliable, economic and clean energy,” Adnani added.

By 12 pm EDT, shares of Uranium Energy were up 6% in New York, giving the company a market cap of $3.47 billion.

In September, Uranium Energy reached a $175 million deal to buy Rio Tinto’s (ASX, LON, NYSE: RIO) assets in Wyoming, which include the fully licensed Sweetwater plant and a portfolio of uranium mining projects.

The Sweetwater plant is a 3,000-tonne-per-day conventional processing mill with a licensed capacity of 4.1 million lb. of U₃O₈. The company estimates the transaction will add about 175 million lb. of historic resources.

In addition to the two hub-and-spoke platforms in Wyoming, the company also operates an ISR production platform in South Texas centered around the Hobson central processing plant, with a licensed capacity of 4 million lb. of U₃O₈ annually.

Publications cited by the WGC have previously concluded that bullion’s primary function is as a store of value, and so its long-run movement should align with the general price level (CPI). However, these studies, as the Council points out, have “mischaracterized gold”, which led to biased conclusions.

The two flawed assumptions that stood out to WGC analysts were: 1) the tendency to use data from the Gold Standard period to analyze gold’s performance, and 2) viewing long-term price dynamics exclusively through the lens of demand from financial markets and ignoring other sources of demand.

Based on such assumptions, many of the studies have landed on an expected long-run real return ranging between 0% and 1%. Alternative approaches using risk premia estimations or bond-like structures with embedded options also produced similar results.

But, as the WGC analysis illustrates (see graph), gold’s long-run return has been well above inflation for over 50 years, more closely mirroring global gross domestic product (GDP).

According to the WGC, the existing frameworks for estimating gold’s long-term returns lack a robust approach that aligns with the capital market assumptions for other asset classes. Specifically, they fail to consider an economic component on top of the financial component that previous models focused on.

Instead, the Council introduces a new model — Gold Long-Term Expected Returns, (GLTER) — that combines an economic component, proxied by global nominal GDP, and a financial component, proxied by the capitalisation of global stock and bond markets, and assesses the influence of each of these variables using regression analysis.

Analysis of regression results for two specifications, one of gold and GDP only, and one of gold and both components, reveals that gold’s long-term expected returns are explained by three parts global nominal GDP growth less one-part global portfolio growth — meaning GDP is the primary driver of the gold price in the long run.

The results show that the estimated average gold return over the 2025-2040 period will exceed 5% per year, which is well above that produced by most other models. Specifically, the estimate exceeds common long-term return assumptions such as a zero real return (2.4% nominal in line with expected CPI inflation) over the next 15 years, or a gold return equivalent to the risk-free rate (2.9% for short-term US Treasury bills).

While this return is lower than the historical return observed from 1971 to 2023, this is largely down to a lower expected growth in global GDP, the WGC says, adding that the impact is likely to be similar for the expected returns of all assets.

“In our view, any model that fails to account for economic growth alongside financial factors will prove insufficient in establishing gold’s long-term expected return,” WGC authors noted.

Compared to the Council’s other pricing models, GRAM and Qaurum, the GLTER places greater emphasis on economic expansion, which it finds to be the primary driver of gold in the long run.

This model also helps to explain why gold’s long-term return has been, and will likely remain, well above inflation, the WGC says.

Since its first gold pour in May, the mine located near Geraldton, Ontario, has produced approximately 59,000 oz. of the precious metal, including 42,500 oz. during the third quarter. During Q3, the processed grade averaged 1.15 grams gold per tonne at an average recovery rate of approximately 80%, which Equinox says was largely on plan.

However, the gold miner also noted that the recovery in August was impacted by operational adjustments to the leach circuit and a temporary suspension of the gravity circuit to address certain issues identified during commissioning. These issues have been largely resolved and recovery has increased through September and into October, Equinox said.

Plant throughput in September also suffered a significant drop due to multi-day shutdowns of the crushing and grinding circuits to fix certain wear and other issues identified during the ramp-up process.

As a result, the throughput averaged only 14,300 tonnes per day (t/d) during Q3, which is just over half of the plant’s 27,000 t/d capacity. The company had previously been targeting 90% of this capacity by the end of 2024.

Given these issues and the mine’s production to date, Equinox has now adjusted Greenstone’s 2024 gold production guidance from 175,000-205,000 oz. to 110,000-130,000 oz., representing a near 37% decrease. During the fourth quarter, the company intends to continue the ramp-up of both mining rates and plant throughput towards design capacity.

When at capacity, the operation is expected to produce approximately 400,000 oz. annually over its first five years, and 360,000 oz. per year over its 14-year mine life. This would make Greenstone one of the largest gold mines in Canada.

Shares of Equinox lost 7.4% to C$7.47 apiece by 11:25 a.m. ET following the latest update on its new gold mine. The share decline takes the company’s market capitalization to approximately C$3.2 billion ($2.3 billion).

The lack of transparency and lost capital are a lesson for junior mining investors, mining engineer Michael McClintock, founder of the McClintock Group of stockholders, said in an interview with The Northern Miner. The group once held about 15% but it’s been diluted to around 3.5%, he said.

Part of McClintock’s argument is that the TSXV and Canadian securities regulators should have probed defensive capital raisings at below-market prices last year because they benefited CEO Patrick McGrath and board members at the expense of other shareholders. Share offerings at C$0.01 when the stock was C$0.02, and twice at C$0.065 apiece when the stock was around C$0.095 and C$0.08, followed a 10-to-one rollback, documents show.

“Between the three financings they did, they issued upwards of 65% new stock that was all done either to insiders or close associates,” McClintock said from Vancouver. “Two of those financings were announced as closed, which I’ve never really seen done in the industry before.”

Blue Moon’s McGrath said the company required capital raisings to stay afloat. Commenting by email, he said Michael’s father, Jack McClintock, was on the board at the time of the first financing, and that the McClintock Group could have asked to be part of the financings. They were needed because the company had C$30,000 in cash and C$315,000 in debt as of the end of 2022.

“If the company did not raise capital, it would simply not survive and it would lose its assets,” McGrath said. “This is the case of most junior TSXV companies.”

Best interests

A defensive capital raising is a pre-emptive move to discourage a takeover by offering shares to certain people at a discount. It increases the number of shares available and makes it more expensive for a hostile acquirer to buy enough shares to gain control.

They aren’t illegal in Canada, but companies are supposed to demonstrate they’re in the best interest of shareholders and not merely a tactic to entrench management. It has similarities to a ‘poison pill’ clause sometimes placed in a company’s bylaws.

McClintock’s father, John, known as Jack, has a long history with Blue Moon, starting as CEO when the company listed in 2007. He resigned in 2015, rejoined the company in 2017 as a director. He left again in February last year, unhappy with how the roll back was done and the discounted share offerings to management and directors.

Michael McClintock issued an open letter to shareholders in April 2023 raising concerns. Management wasn’t providing adequate updates, it might try to sell the Blue Moon project at a significant discount to its market value, and the share roll back was unnecessary and had further diluted shares, McClintock said. He offered to be CEO for a salary of C$1 a year.

‘No business plan’

Blue Moon replied the following month that McClintock had “no meaningful business plan, no indications of access to capital nor any prior public company experience.” McClintock had “onerous terms for the company that the board would not accept,” it said, referring to his offer to be CEO.

“The bottom line is John McClintock has led Blue Moon for 14.5 of the last 16 years without success,” Blue Moon said in May 2023. “If Blue Moon shareholders want a different plan than the last 16 years, they should be looking to the current team.”

McGrath said Blue Moon needed to roll back shares because it had 150 million shares outstanding and the company was trading well below the TSXV minimum price to complete a financing.

Defensive capital raising is rare, but one of many issues investors in junior mining companies need to be aware of, James Brown, partner at law firm Osler, and mining practice co-head Alan Hutchison said in an interview. Other concerns are being able to decipher technical reports, a stock’s liquidity, joint venture partner conflicts and how advanced the project is.

“In a lot of cases, issuers, particularly junior exploration companies, just need capital to carry on and keep the lights on and continue their programs,” Brown said by phone. “There are definitely cases in high-profile situations where there can be defensive tactics, but that is something that the securities commissions do focus on in the context of particular proxy contests or transactions.”

TMX, owner of the TSX and TSXV exchanges, and the securities commissions in British Columbia and Ontario declined to say whether Blue Moon was investigated because of McClintock’s claims.

Transparency rules

John Kaiser, who has published a mining industry newsletter for 30 years, said the Blue Moon dispute lies in a grey area where it’s difficult to determine who’s been wronged. Kaiser blamed the TSXV for weakening transparency rules on private placement details, which often hides who’s buying and how much.

“It is yet another sign of the F-You attitude the establishment has towards the investing public,” Kaiser told The Northern Miner by email. He commented on the company’s latest private placement that raised C$924,000 in August by issuing 26.4 million shares at C$0.035 each.

“The fact that the stock has developed an uptrend following a ‘pity’ priced financing, out of character with all past financings, suggests that the financing was placed with an ‘invited’ group in individual quantities below insider thresholds.”

Indeed, Blue Moon said three new proposed directors would stand for election to the board Oct. 17. All are well known reputable mining industry executives. They are former Iamgold (TSX: IMG; NYSE: IAG) interim CEO Maryse Belanger, Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM, NYSE: WPM; LSE: WPM) corporate development vice-president Haytham Hodaly, and Christian Kargl-Simard, the CEO of Adventus Mining when Silvercorp Metals (TSX: SVM; NYSE: SVM) bought it this year for C$235 million.

McGrath declined to say why or how the proposed board members were attracted to the company, but said Blue Moon would update shareholders in the coming weeks of its plans and direction.

Share surge

The CEO said the value of the McClintock Group’s shareholdings since Feb 13, 2023, the date of Jack McClintock’s resignation from Blue Moon, to Oct. 10 this year have gained about 250%.

Blue Moon’s share price has risen more than tenfold to close at C$0.345 on Tuesday from C$0.035 before the latest capital raising was announced Aug. 15. The company has a market value of C$18.2 million.

But McClintock points out the stock was at C$0.60 in 2021 when the company did a financing. From then until the August capital raising, the stock lost 94% of its value and C$8 million for shareholders, McClintock estimated. His group and other legacy shareholders dating to before the rollback have experienced 72% dilution since February 2023. McClintock says legacy shareholder losses may exceed C$20 million when based on the asset’s fair value.

McGrath said the market cap today is higher than any period in 2022 and 2023. “The McClintocks are simply cherry picking the very high and the very low and ignoring the recent share performance,” he said.

Another company where McGrath is CEO, Burell Resources (CSE: BURY), raised C$800,000 from an initial public offering in July 2021, and hasn’t issued a press release since. It has a historically explored gold project in Nevada.

‘Pressure worked’

McClintock said his group’s efforts at Blue Moon contributed to the company’s board changes and news Oct. 10 that it hired a company to conduct a new preliminary assessment on the project for release in next year’s first quarter. The last one was done in 1989 under a former owner.

“We strongly believe that the situation would have been far worse had we not applied the shareholder pressure,” McClintock said. “We really want to see Blue Moon succeed, and we hope we can impact a positive change.”

Blue Moon sold its 13-sq.-km Yava property with silver and base metal potential in Nunavut to Honey Badger Silver (CVE: TUF) on Oct. 2 in an all-share deal valued at C$340,000.

The November 2023 update at Blue Moon in California upgraded nearly half (48%) of the previous resource to the indicated category. The project holds 3.5 million indicated tonnes grading 6.14% zinc, 0.75% copper, 1.54 grams silver per tonne, 0.05 gram gold and 0.24% lead for 431 million lb. contained zinc, 53 million lb. copper 17 million lb. lead, 5 million oz. silver and 200,000 oz. gold.

The project has 3.8 million inferred tonnes grading 5.94% zinc, 0.59% copper, 1.56 grams silver, 0.05 gram gold and 0.34% lead for 455 million lb. zinc, 45 million lb. copper, 26 million lb. lead, 6 million oz. silver and 200,000 oz. gold.

Spot gold inched 0.3% higher at $2,668.82 per ounce by 12:40 p.m. ET, having touched as high as $2,684.97 earlier. US gold futures gained 0.2% at $2,684.90 per ounce in New York.

Gold’s strong momentum continued as US Treasury yields dropped to the lowest in a week, with the market anticipating another rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Traders currently see about a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point US rate cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Over the past year, elevated interest rates have done little to slow gold’s ascent to consecutive record highs, and many investors are now betting that a pivot to looser monetary policy — accompanied by a slowdown in US economic growth — will fuel further gains.

In addition to rate cuts, the other main bullish drivers for gold include risk of fiscal instability, safe haven appeal and geopolitical tensions, all of which have contributed to its status as one of the best-performing commodities in 2024.

Now, bullion is gaining even more support as investors across financial markets reposition their portfolios in response to uncertainty over the outcome of the US presidential race.

“We anticipate uncertainty and volatility to rise until the next US administration is settled,” UBS analysts led by Mark Haefele said in an emailed note to Bloomberg, adding that “gold and oil can be effective portfolio hedges” in such environments.

Earlier, delegates to the London Bullion Market Association’s annual gathering predicted gold prices could even go higher and rise to $2,941 over the next 12 months, about 10% above current levels.

(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)

Eramet announced the lowered forecasts late on Tuesday, citing a downturn in the manganese market and a smaller-than-expected permit allowance in Indonesia.

The Moanda mine in Gabon and the Weda Bay mine in Indonesia have driven Eramet’s growth, as its historic nickel operation in New Caledonia has been drained by losses and social unrest.

Analysts at ODDO BHF called the news “another setback” for Eramet, following its July reduction of 2024 targets for ore output in Gabon and Indonesia, while also trimming short-term targets for a new lithium mine in Argentina.

Eramet attributed the deterioration in the manganese market to falling Chinese output of carbon steel — which requires manganese in its production — and an influx of low-grade ore after a price surge earlier this year.

The company’s full-year sales volumes of high-grade manganese ore are estimated to be between 6.0 and 6.5 million tonnes in 2024, of which approximately 700,000 tonnes are internal sales.

As a result, Eramet has decided to suspend ore production at the Moanda mine for a minimum of three weeks. According to the company, sales and shipments will continue during this period.

The 2024 volume target for produced and transported manganese ore was revised to between 6.5 and 7.0 million tonnes, down from the previous 7.0 to 7.5 million tonnes.

In Indonesia, the mines ministry this week issued PT Weda Bay Nickel, Eramet’s joint venture with Chinese group Tsingshan, a revised allowance of 32 million wet tonnes annually for 2024-2026, including 3 million for internal sales, according to Eramet.

As a result, the operation’s 2024 volume target for external marketable nickel ore has been revised to 29 million wet tonnes, down from the previous 40 to 42 million tonnes. Eramet noted that the impact on the operation’s 2024 financial performance is expected to be largely offset by higher ore premiums due to domestic supply restrictions.

(With files from Reuters)

The metal fell by more than 1% on the London Metal Exchange as sentiment across China’s financial markets turned sour again.

Copper for December delivery declined 1.54% from Monday’s settlement, reaching $4.33/lb. ($9,526/t) in early morning trade on the Comex in New York.

[Click here for an interactive chart of copper prices]

Authorities in China have sharply ramped up policy stimulus since late September to revive the economy and ensure growth will reach the government’s target of around 5% this year.

However, a Reuters poll showed that China’s economy is likely to expand 4.8% in 2024, undershooting the government’s target. Growth could cool further to 4.5% in 2025, maintaining pressure on policymakers as they consider more stimulus measures.

“The main pressure is from the consumption side, which is linked to deflationary pressures,” said Xing Zhaopeng, ANZ’s senior China strategist.

Last week, China’s finance minister pledged to “significantly increase” debt to revive growth, leaving investors guessing about the overall size of the stimulus package.

The government will release third-quarter GDP data and September retail sales, industrial production and investment data on Oct. 18.

(With files from Reuters and Bloomberg)

CopperEx Resources (TSXV: CUEX) received a boost on Monday after the company arranged a $12.5 million loan and a separate financing to fund its exploration activities in Chile. Its shares rose 7.3% to C$0.22 apiece at market open, for a market capitalization of C$6.25 million ($4.5 million).

The loan, as agreed to by an arm’s-length party, has a term of ten years and bears a 3.5% annual interest rate. However, no interest will accrue or be paid during the first two years, and the third year will be a moratorium year during which interest will accrue but no payment will be made.

The financing is in the form of a private placement, with the company issuing 5 million units priced at C$0.20 each for gross proceeds of C$1 million. The units contain warrants that are exercisable at $0.30 per share.

The funds will be directed towards CopperEx’s portfolio of projects in Chile. Its flagship asset is Exploradora Norte, for which it holds an option to earn 65% interest and a preferred option for an additional 35% with no attached royalty.

The Exploradora Norte project hosts multiple drill-ready porphyry targets located south of Escondida, the largest copper mine in the world. It is also adjacent to a Codelco property that has an estimated resource of 190 to 280 million tonnes grading 0.40% copper.

Earlier this year, CopperEx completed its first drill program at Exploradora Norte, comprising eight drill holes for 1,279 meters of drilling centered on the Franja del Oro target, part of a 15-km-long gold enrichment zone located in the northwestern part of the 20.8-sq.-km property.

In addition to Exploradora Norte, the company also owns 100% of the Kio Buggy project, situated between BHP’s Spence and Cerro Colorado mines in northern Chile, and the La Rica properties located 45 km northwest of the Las Bambas mine in Apurimac province, Peru.

At the end of the third quarter of 2024, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners had a combined market capitalization of $1.51 trillion, up just under $76 billion from end-June, largely on the back of gold and royalty stocks.

The total stock market valuation of the world’s biggest mining companies is up a fairly modest 8% year to end-September and despite the good run is still $240 billion below the peak hit in the second quarter of 2022.  

Ranks, value of gold stocks swell

The value of precious metals and royalty companies climbed by a combined $42 billion, or 16% during the quarter and gold counters dominate the best performing ranks. 

Were it not for the limited tradability of stock in Russia’s Polyus, which lost some ground over the last three months despite gold’s stellar performance, bullion’s effect on the Top 50 would have been even more pronounced. 

Canada’s Alamos Gold joins the top 50 for the first time with a more than 31% jump in value, lifting it six places to number 48 with a valuation of $8.2 billion at the end of the quarter while the second quarter’s newcomer Pan American Silver (following its absorption of Yamana Gold) hangs on at no 50.

Alamos Gold last month raised its production guidance by over 20% for 2025-2026 with the inclusion of the Magino mine and its integration with its Island Gold operation in Ontario. The Toronto- based miner has long term ambitions to grow its production base to 900,000 ounces per year.

Uzbekistan is readying an IPO for Navoi Mining and Metallurgy Combinat – the world’s fourth largest gold mining company and significant uranium producer in 2025. NMMC debuted a $1 billion bond offering last week, marking the first global debt market issuance from a gold mining company since June 2023.

Navoi should easily join the ranks of gold producers in the top 50 thanks to ownership of the world’s largest gold mine, Muruntau, and annual production of 2.9 million ounces at grades and per ounce extraction costs the envy of the sector.  

The Muruntau open pit mine southwest of the Kyzylkum desert, originally developed during the Soviet era as a source of uranium, has estimated reserves of around 130 million ounces of gold. 

Goldilocks copper

Copper specialists, and those with fat gold credits, have gained a combined 36% year to date as the copper price continues to flirt with the $10,000 a tonne level, but momentum slowed dramatically during Q3 with the group contributing only $7.2 billion in added market worth during the quarter. 

Amman Mineral’s fierce rally also came to an abrupt halt during the quarter with the counter losing 18% over the three months and coming close to falling out of the top 10.

Investors who bought Amman, owner of the world’s third largest mine worldwide in terms of copper equivalent, at the IPO price in Jakarta a year ago, are still enjoying 400% gains since then, however. 

Southern Copper’s position as the world’s third most valuable mining stock seems entrenched after a double digit percentage gain in Q3 compared to a much more sedate performance by Freeport-McMoRan, which now has to gain a full $20 billion in market cap to haul in its Mexico City-based rival.

Light on lithium 

Rio Tinto’s vote of confidence in the long term future of the lithium sector (and its own ability to make M&A work) dominated the news at the start of the December-quarter but it’s worth noting that Arcadium’s more than 90% surge since the all-cash offer was first announced is not enough for the stock to enter the rankings.

Three lithium counters exited the rankings this year, Australia’s Pilbara Minerals and Mineral Resources and China’s Tianqi Lithium as the deep slump in prices for the battery metal continues to take its toll.  

Last quarter’s no 50, Ganfeng Lithium jumps six places after being swept up in the stimulus-induced rally on Chinese stock markets at the end of the quarter, while Tianqi’s performance so far in October should see it reenter the Top 50 in due course. 

Ganfeng was barely holding on at position 50 at end-June and with gold price momentum continuing and two gold mining companies waiting in the winds – Yintai and Alamos – only three lithium counters in the top 50 may be a reality for some time to come. 

After peaking in the second quarter of 2022 with a combined value of nearly $120 billion, the remaining lithium stocks’ market value has now shrunk to $34 billion.  

Iron ore ground down

Despite a modest improvement during the quarter, the mining industry’s traditional big 5 – BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Vale and Anglo American – remain in the red for 2024, losing $24 billion since the start of the year. 

The big 5 diversifieds now make up 29% of the total index, down from a height of 38% at the end of 2022.  

Iron ore’s less than rosy outlook – the late boost China’s recent stimulus package notwithstanding – saw Fortescue once again feature on the biggest losers list and Cleveland Cliffs exit the ranking with the US iron ore miner’s 37% decline this year exacerbated by its inability to capitalize on the blocking of the Nippon-US Steel tie up. 

Iron ore’s representation in the top 50 have diminished in the last couple of years – Brazil’s CSN Mineração dropped out during Q1 this year while Anglo-controlled and separately-listed Kumba Iron Ore has lost touch with the top tier after a 40% fall year to date.

Click on image for full size table.

NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, stock exchange data, company reports. Share data from primary-listed exchange at close Oct 4, 2024 close of trading converted to US$ where applicable. Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.  

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining (the gold and uranium giant may list later this year), Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like China’s CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining will continue to represent a small portion of its valuation.  

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.

The offering comprises $500 million in four-year notes at 6.70% yield and $500 million in seven-year notes at 6.95%. Ahead of the offering, the company obtained its first-ever credit ratings, with a credit profile confirmed at a level above sovereign: BB+ by S&P and BB by Fitch.

NMMC is currently Uzbekistan’s biggest industrial enterprise and one of the world’s leading gold producers. Last year, its gold production reached 2.9 million ounces, making it the fourth largest globally.

The bond offering, said NMMC, marks a landmark achievement for both the company and the wider region. It represents the largest orderbook for an issuer from Uzbekistan since the sovereign debut in 2019, peaking at $5.5 billion (over 5.5x oversubscribed), as well as one of the largest corporate Notes deal from the CIS since July 2020.

NMMC said it will use to funds to support its investment programs, as well as to repay existing debt and cover operational expenses. The bond offering will also allow the company to refinance existing debt at more attractive rates and longer tenors, it added.

“Our debut notes offering marks the beginning of what we anticipate will be a long and fruitful relationship with the global investor community. This milestone is not only significant for our company but also for the Republic of Uzbekistan, where NMMC is a lynchpin of the local economy,” NMMC’s first deputy CEO and chief transformation officer Eugene Antonov said in a news release.

The note offering follows an earlier investment of $150 million from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), Japan’s largest bank, to support the company’s expansion plans at its mine operations.

The company currently owns a dozen gold mining operations across the Navoi and Samarkand regions of Uzbekistan. The most well-known is the Muruntau open pit mine southwest of the Kyzylkum desert, which was originally developed during the Soviet era as a source of uranium but has since evolved into a large gold mine complex. NMMC says Muruntau is now recognized by geologists as the largest in terms of gold reserve with an estimated 4,500 tonnes of gold.

Combined with its other deposits, NMMC’s total mineral resource base is estimated at 148 million oz. of gold.

The disruption, caused by customs actions, impacts the raw material essential for producing alumina, the primary ingredient in aluminum.

EGA said it is working to resolve the issue swiftly, though production at its Al Taweelah refinery remains unaffected.

Aluminum prices rose as high as 2.7%, reaching $2,655 per tonne, while alumina futures in Shanghai surged 4.2% to 4,553 yuan ($644) per tonne — the highest since their launch in June 2023.

This suspension adds to a year of supply constraints in the alumina market. Earlier disruptions included Alcoa’s closure of its Kwinana refinery in Australia and Rio Tinto’s declaration of force majeure at its Queensland refineries due to gas shortages. China has also faced alumina supply limitations from bauxite shortages amid environmental inspections.

Chinese alumina producers have ramped up output to capitalize on the high prices, with 6.4 million tonnes of new capacity expected in 2024. However, this additional supply could temper the price rally.

“Alumina prices have support in the short term from shortage of domestic Chinese bauxite supply, high price of imported bauxite and strong demand,” said Chen Xinlin, managing consultant at Wood Mackenzie.

Trafigura Group highlighted the strain these price surges are placing on aluminum smelters, calling it the most significant factor influencing the market outlook.

(With files from Reuters and Bloomberg)

Read more: Copper prices to hit record high in Q4 2024 on Fed cuts and China stimulus