The company said on Monday that its full-year nickel production forecast was now at 196,000-204,000 metric tons, up from 184,000-194,000 tons previously. The new target was still below the 209,000 tons produced in 2023.

The company said it had produced 146,210 tons of nickel in the first nine months of the year as the furnace at its flagship Nadezhda smelter went back into operation after major repairs in August.

As a result, the company reported a 16% quarter-on-quarter increase in nickel output in the third quarter.

Its palladium production guidance was increased to between 2.624 million and 2.728 million ounces, up from 2.296 million to 2.451 million ounces previously. Palladium output was up 1% year on year at 2.156 million ounces in the nine months of 2024.

Nornickel’s operations director Alexander Popov said the company increased nine-month copper and palladium output year on year while platinum and nickel were unchanged.

The “positive dynamics” were attributed to improved operational efficiency and increase mined ore, he said in a statement.

Nornickel is not subject to direct Western sanctions, though sanctions against Moscow have prompted some Western producers to avoid buying Russian metal and complicated payments, leading Nornickel to redirect sales to Asia.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova and Gleb Bryanski; Editing by David Goodman)

The move, Blue Evolution said, creates a combined entity that will leverage enhanced R&D capabilities to drive innovation and commercialize new seaweed-based products across multiple sectors – agriculture, biomaterials – and critical minerals.

In December of last year, the US Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) first announced its selection of scientific teams to explore the feasibility of extracting critical minerals from ocean macroalgae.

In July this year, Blue Evolution announced a groundbreaking advancement in sustainable biomining after it partnered with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Virginia Tech to develop a revolutionary method for sustainably extracting critical minerals and rare earth elements from seaweed.

The company operates seaweed farms in California and Alaska, and this month finalized a joint venture with the Māori Iwi Tribe to scale regenerative seaweed farming in Aotearoa, New Zealand.

From biofuels to rare earths

Blue Evolution CEO Beau Perry has been working with ARPA-E since 2017, first on large-scale systems for cultivation of seaweed for biofuels in Kodiak, Alaska, testing new hardware to grow seaweed in abundance, sustainably and economically.

Alaska is unparalleled in the US in terms of seaweed farming because of its size, environmental conditions and infrastructure. Perry noted both the state and the public are much more receptive to seaweed farming than to mining projects.

“It’s a relatively new industry. In post-war Japan, the coastal seaweed the Japanese had harvested for a long time was kind of destroyed…A British woman had closed the life cycle on nori in the early 50s. Seaweed farming was fairly new as a major agricultural sector, but now we grow, globally, 30 million tons of it,” Perry told MINING.com in an interview.

More than half of it is grown in China, but also Japan, Korea, Philippines and Indonesia.

The United States only entered the market ten years ago, and Perry said the US has grown a couple thousand tons so far.

Of over 10,000 species of seaweed worldwide, 300 species have been commercialized. Blue Evolution is working with six different species – four that they are growing in Alaska. Perry said seaweed has the potential to enter multiple markets because of its sustainability.

“It soaks up a lot more carbon than any terrestrial biomass per area, and it really only needs sunlight and seawater,” he said.

“We were looking [at] how to render biofuels from seaweed. PNNL was doing very in-depth content analyses of different samples of different species from different locations in our farmer network. We worked with different farmers that we’ve helped set up in Alaska, including the first ever commercial farm in Kodiak.”

The team started to find some unusual levels of minerals designated as in the strategic interest of US economic development and national security, but Perry said what got the Department of Energy’s attention was the rare earths.

The discovery is a positive development for a nascent North American rare earths market and taps into the broader issue of the glaring lack of domestic production. China has a near monopoly on mining and refining the group of 17 metals that are crucial to the development of smart electronic devices and wind turbines, and which are notoriously difficult to extract and expensive to process.

“This was sort of a beautiful accident, and it’s all a function of what’s in the water where the seaweed is growing,” Perry said.

“They’re a prolific sponge – they soak up nitrogen, phosphorus, carbon and a lot of minerals, and so in this first pass at the content analysis, we got a certain set of signals around REEs and precious metals, like rhodium, palladium and scandium.”

Each species of seaweed is metabolically prone to take up a certain set of minerals, and Perry noted some are really fascinating.

“We’ve seen sort of peaks and flat lines from different locations around the globe, and now we’re starting to fill in the puzzle of which seaweed could grow where to get what minerals,” he said.

“It’s clear that each one is taking up some combination of precious minerals, REEs and these other strategic minerals.”

The team has preliminary data and is working to understand which species, where, how they are grown, and determining scalable extraction methods.

“There’s kind of this matrix of ‘what am I growing the seaweed for?’ I think critical minerals past a certain scale will always be part of that based on what we’re seeing,” Perry said. “ In certain locations, that might be the primary one if we find a species that really soaks this stuff up. We’re talking parts per million, and even parts per billion as a baseline. It’s perfectly standard in mining.”

Doubling seaweed value

Perry said the company is forging ahead with a “very critical mineral centric expedition” to find if there are places to focus on critical minerals and develop farms that are primarily oriented towards producing them.

“It’s possible that the critical minerals are disruptive to seaweed farming economics generally. They could double the value of the biomass,” he said.

“If I were to grow at a level where … at a significant scale relative to that market, the amount of critical minerals that will be running through our supply chain will be significant. In some cases, maybe fundamentally changing the supply picture for specific critical minerals.”

“There are some tricks that we’re going to explore to really enhance the amount of rare earths per ton of biomass. It’s taking these things up all the time.

There are ways to coax maybe orders of magnitude more than we’re finding by accident, not really trying. We can do things at the genetic level, selecting for strains that are going to bioaccumulate more of a given target critical mineral.”

The goal, Perry said, is to really understand what’s possible from an extraction standpoint.

“There’s a certain amount of critical minerals that are economically recoverable from a site, but around it are a million years of sediment that the seaweed will be sort of steeped in, like a sponge. And that yield should actually increase over time, given that the baseline of those minerals should stay the same pretty much over a long period of time. And we’re going to get better at getting the seaweed to accumulate them and getting them out.”

When you think about a seaweed farm as a mine, it’s unlikely to run out anytime soon,” Perry said. “It will be replenished constantly by the ocean. So that, I think, from a mining perspective is pretty radical – I don’t need to spend $100 million to maybe break ground on a mine in 20 years.”

At the end of the third quarter of 2024, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners had a combined market capitalization of $1.51 trillion, up just under $76 billion from end-June, largely on the back of gold and royalty stocks.

The total stock market valuation of the world’s biggest mining companies is up a fairly modest 8% year to end-September and despite the good run is still $240 billion below the peak hit in the second quarter of 2022.  

Ranks, value of gold stocks swell

The value of precious metals and royalty companies climbed by a combined $42 billion or 16% during the quarter and gold counters dominate the best performing ranks. 

Were it not for the limited tradability of stock in Russia’s Polyus, which lost some ground over the three months despite gold’s stellar performance, bullion’s effect on the Top 50 would have been even more pronounced. 

Canada’s Alamos Gold joins the top 50 for the first time with a  more than 31% jump in value lifting it six places to number 48 with a valuation of $8.2 billion at the end of the quarter while the second quarter’s newcomer Pan American Silver (following its absorption of Yamana Gold) hangs on at no 50.

Alamos Gold last month raised its production guidance by over 20% for 2025-2026 with the inclusion of the Magino mine and its integration with its Island Gold operation in Ontario. The Toronto based miner has long term ambitions to grow its production base to 900,000 ounces per year.

Uzbekistan is readying an IPO for Navoi Mining and Metallurgy Combinat – the world’s fourth largest gold mining company and significant uranium producer in 2025. NMMC debuted a $1 billion bond offering last week, marking the first global debt market issuance from a gold mining company since June 2023.

Navoi should easily join the ranks of gold producers in the top 50 thanks to ownership of the world’s largest gold mine, Muruntau, and annual production of 2.9 million ounces at grades and per ounce extraction costs the envy of the sector.  

The Muruntau open pit mine southwest of the Kyzylkum desert, originally developed during the Soviet era as a source of uranium, has estimated reserves of around 130 million ounces of gold. 

Goldilocks copper

Copper specialists, and those with fat gold credits, have gained a combined 36% year to date as the copper price continues to flirt with the $10,000 a tonne level but momentum slowed dramatically during Q3 with the group contributing only $7.2 billion in added market worth during the quarter. 

Amman Mineral’s fierce rally also came to an abrupt halt during the quarter with the counter losing 18% over the three months and coming close to falling out of the top 10.

Investors who bought Amman, owner of the world’s third largest mine worldwide in terms of copper equivalent, at the IPO price in Jakarta a year ago, are still enjoying 400% gains since then however. 

Southern Copper’s position as the world’s third most valuable mining stock seems entrenched after a double digit percentage gain in Q3 compared to a much more sedate performance by Freeport-McMoRan which now has to gain a full $20 billion in market cap to haul in its Mexico City-based rival.

Light on lithium 

Rio Tinto’s vote of confidence in the long term future of the lithium sector (and its own ability to make M&A work) dominated the news at the start of the December-quarter but it’s worth noting that Arcadium’s more than 90% surge since the all-cash offer was first announced are not enough for the stock to enter the rankings.

Three lithium counters exited the rankings this year, Australia’s  Pilbara Minerals and Mineral Resources and China’s Tianqi Lithium as the deep slump in prices for the battery metal continues to take its toll.  

Last quarter’s no 50, Ganfeng Lithium jumps six places after being swept up in the stimulus-induced rally on Chinese stock markets at the end of the quarter while Tianqi’s performance so far in October should see it reenter the Top 50 in due course. 

Ganfeng was barely holding on at position 50 at end-June and with gold price momentum continuing and two gold mining companies waiting in the winds – Yintai and Alamos – only three lithium counters in the top 50 may be a reality for some time to come. 

After peaking in the second quarter of 2022 with a combined value of nearly $120 billion, the remaining lithium stocks’ market value has now shrunk to $34 billion.  

Iron ore ground down

Despite a modest improvement during the quarter, the mining industry’s traditional big 5 – BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Vale and Anglo American – remain in the red for 2024, losing $24 billion since the start of the year. 

The big 5 diversifieds now make up 29% of the total index, down from a height of 38% at the end of 2022.  

Iron ore’s less than rosy outlook – the late boost China’s recent stimulus package notwithstanding – saw Fortescue once again feature on the biggest losers list and Cleveland Cliffs exit the ranking with the US iron ore miner’s 37% decline this year exacerbated by its inability to capitalize on the blocking of the Nippon-US Steel tie up. 

Iron ore’s representation in the top 50 have diminished in the last couple of years – Brazil’s CSN Mineração dropped out during Q1 this year while Anglo-controlled and separately-listed Kumba Iron Ore has lost touch with the top tier after a 40% fall year to date.

Click on image for full size table.

NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, stock exchange data, company reports. Share data from primary-listed exchange at close Oct 4, 2024 close of trading converted to US$ where applicable. Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.  

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining (the gold and uranium giant may list later this year), Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like China’s CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining will continue to represent a small portion of its valuation.  

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.

The industry body, funded by South African platinum miners Anglo American (LON: AAL), Northam Platinum, Sedibelo Platinum Mines, Impala Platinum Holdings (JSE: IMP), and Tharisa (JSE: THA) – estimates the global industry has shed around 10,000 jobs this year alone.

The WPIC’s latest report highlights the significant impact of declining platinum group metals (PGMs) prices on the sector, especially in South Africa, which accounts for about 70% of global output.

The plunge in PGMs prices has been a key driver behind the current challenges in the sector. Platinum, used in automotive catalytic converters, jewellery, and various industrial applications, has seen demand volatility due to shifts in global markets and the transition toward greener technologies.

The pressure of weak prices on margins has forced companies to slash their workforce in order to remain viable. According to the WPIC, the sector is now operating at levels last seen before the pandemic, which caused major disruptions and uncertainty across global commodity markets.

Long-term production concerns

While job cuts have provided short-term relief for mining companies, the WPIC is concerned about the long-term consequences. Reducing the workforce could erode South Africa’s production capacity, leading to a potential shortfall in global supply over time, it said. 

Production in South Africa this year is expected to fall 2% year-on-year to around 3.9 million ounces.

“The current strategy may risk long-term production erosion,” the Council said, emphasizing the need for a careful balance between cost-cutting and maintaining sustainable output levels.

The WPIC warns that without careful management, the sector could face a deeper supply crisis in the future, which could destabilize not only South Africa’s mining sector but also global platinum markets. 

 With declines in Russian output, global production this year is seen falling 2% to 5.5 million ounces, a four-year low, the Council said.

A 1-million-oz. deficit is forecast this year, up from 731,000 oz. in 2023, as supply edges 1% lower to nearly 7.1 million oz. while demand is expected to grow 3% – the largest gain in five years – to 8.1 million oz., the World Platinum Investment Council says in a new report released on Tuesday.

The council, which represents miners of platinum group metals, forecasts investor demand – driven by exchange traded funds (ETFs) and metal bar and coin sales in China – to rise 15% to 517,000 oz. this year.

Jewelry use is to increase by 7% while mining production is to ease by 1%. Automotive and industrial demand are each predicted to increase 1%, but their levels are already high, the council’s research director, Edward Sterck, told The Northern Miner by phone.

“Automotive demand is at a seven-year high and very much the theme there is higher-for-longer demand for internal combustion engine-containing vehicles,” Sterck said from London where the council is based. “If you exclude the Covid-impacted 2020, and 2014 which was impacted by strikes, it’s actually the weakest year for mine supply since 2000.”

Electric vehicles

Platinum demand can act as a kind of bellwether for the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), which don’t use catalytic converters to reduce emissions. Leading automakers such as Ford, Toyota and Stellantis have scaled back EV production amid slower than expected sales although hybrids are maintaining growth as vehicle producers lean on them to hit emissions targets. Hybrid autos require more platinum proportionally than traditional cars because their systems operate at lower temperatures, Sterck said.

The council – funded by South African platinum miners Anglo American (LSE: AAL), Northam Platinum, Sedibelo Platinum Mines, Impala Platinum Holdings (JSE: IMP), and Tharisa (JSE: THA) – sees more cost-driven restructuring in South Africa, the leading platinum producer. Production there this year is expected to fall 2% year-on-year to around 3.9 million ounces. With declines in Russian output, global production this year is seen falling 2% to 5.5 million oz., a four-year low, the council said.

Miners have cut back on their capital spending programs substantially and shed about 10,000 jobs, about 6% of the workforce, through the usual legal processes and avoiding labour unrest, Sterck said.

“They’re just effectively trying to improve their labour productivity and drive down their operating costs,” he said. “We’re not expecting any dramatic production cuts as a result of the low palladium and rhodium prices, but the cutback in capex and headcount means you’re probably going to see a gradual erosion of supply going forwards.”

The price of platinum has fallen about 4% this year to about $950 per oz. on Tuesday. Rhodium increased 9.2% this year to $4,750 per ounce​.

Recycling, industries

Global recycling is expected to reach nearly 1.6 million oz. this year, a 2% year-on-year increase.  The spent autocatalyst market should show signs of stabilizing after two years of declines, the council said. Above-ground stockpiles are forecast to drop for the second year in a row, with one-quarter plunge to a four-year low of 3 million oz., just over four months’ worth of demand cover.

Industrial demand is forecast to reach 2.4 million oz. in 2024, marking a 1% year-on-year increase over the elevated levels of 2023. It offsets a sharp decline in platinum chemical offtake, which dropped by nearly half year-on-year to 122,000 oz. in the second quarter, primarily due to a slowdown in China’s petrochemical industry. Chemical demand is expected to decrease by 31% to 542,000 ounces.

Investors

The quarterly report of the council marked the first time it included demand figures from Chinese investors in bars and coins of more than 500 grams. They’re expected to achieve 40% year-on-year growth for full-year 2024 to 188,000 ounces. However, bar and coin investment fell in Japan and in North America.

“We’ve seen, obviously, a lot of demand for gold investment product in China,” Sterck said. “That’s flowing through to platinum investment demand, and that’s grown from effectively from zero five years ago.”

During the second quarter, investment demand surged to its highest level since 2020’s third-quarter, driven by a substantial inflow of 444,000 oz. into platinum ETFs. These included the London-based Wisdom Tree Physical Platinum fund with $629 million under management, and the iShares Physical Platinum fund with $165.9 million.

Jewelry, hydrogen

Historically high gold prices are helping platinum jewelry demand grow to a forecast 2 million oz. this year. India shows strong 28% growth, Japan is forecast to rise by 8% while Europe and North America are expected to reach record high increases of 4% and 3%, respectively. China is set to improve by 3%, reversing a decline in demand that has persisted since 2013, the council said.

The metal’s use is expanding in transportation with the mandated spread of hydrogen fuel cells and charging stations in China and Europe. But its appeal may be limited in North America to long-distance trucking where battery-powered 18-wheelers are impractical on cross-continental routes, Sterck said.

“The challenge is the refueling infrastructure,” he said. “You can’t, with current battery technology, economically electrify coast-to-coast truck transportation because you’re giving up a third of your payload to your battery weight, you’ve got to stop for six hours charging every day, plus arguably in the Midwest, for example, the grids can’t supply that megawatt charging per vehicle requirements.

“So, hydrogen actually is a potential solution to that, and it’s one that’s probably lower cost and easier to implement, but that’s the main scenario where it makes sense in North America.”

The sale is part of a comprehensive sweeping restructuring program triggered by a failed takeover attempt by its larger rival BHP (ASX, LON, NYSE: BHP). The explosion and subsequent fire at the company’s Grosvenor coal mine in Queensland rose questions about the process. Anglo continued as planned, enlisting the services of three top banks in July to assist in the sale.

Bids will be open for Anglo’s Grosvenor and Moranbah North mines, as well as three smaller mines in Queensland, according to two unnamed sources cited by Reuters.

Analysts predict that potential bidders may include Glencore (LON: GLEN), already a major supplier of Australian coal, Indonesian companies and Yancoal (ASX: YAL), which operates several coal mines in the country. 

Glencore recently abandoned plans to spin off its coal unit following discussions with shareholders, who pushed back against the move. The Swiss miner and commodities trader’s business has long been centred around the fossil fuel, and the prospect of abandoning it seemed improbable for a company built on the commodity.

Following the announcement, chief executive Gary Nagle said the company would even consider buying more steelmaking coal assets, given they were “fair priced” and located in “the right place”.

A group of Indonesian companies led by Golden Energy and Resources is reportedly considering making an offer. Delta Dunia Group, a Jakarta-listed company that operates the BUMA coal mining services business in Australia, announced in July its intention to expand through acquisitions.

China-backed Yancoal is another strong candidate to bid for Anglo’s assets. The miner said on Monday it was on the hunt for metallurgical coal deals in Australia, backed by A$1.5 billion ($1bn) in available funds. If successful, the move would position Yancoal as one of the nation’s top producers, capitalizing on rising demand across Asia.

The move by the world’s second largest miner will boost its shareholding in Sovereign to 19.76%, as it continues to raise its exposure to battery minerals.

The investment builds on a previous deal one year ago, when Rio Tinto spent A$40.4 million ($27m) to take an initial 15% interest in the owner of the world’s largest rutile and second largest flake graphite deposit.

The Kasiya orebody contains 1.8 billion tonnes at 1% rutile and 1.4% graphite, resulting in 17.9 million tonnes of contained natural rutile and 24.4 million tonnes of contained graphite.

Rio Tinto’s further investment represents another significant step towards unlocking a major new supply of low-carbon footprint natural critical minerals, the miners said in the statement.

Sovereign managing director Frank Eagar said the company has made significant progress in advancing Kasiya over the last year, thanks to Rio’s involvement. This includes the successful launch of a pilot phase in May.

Rio not only is one of Sovereign’s top shareholders, but also offers the Australian junior support and guidance on the technical and marketing aspects of the Kasiya project through a joint committee set up by the two companies.

The mining giant already produces titanium dioxide from rutile at its operations in Madagascar, South Africa and Canada. Titanium is used in solar panels, paint and aircraft because of its ability to withstand temperature extremes.

The basket price of the platinum group metals (PGMs), which are chiefly used in vehicle exhausts to neutralise harmful engine emissions, slumped in 2023 due to worries that rising market share of PGMs-free, battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) would reduce demand in future.

Demand for the PGMs from the auto sector rose last year as the 2021-2022 chip crisis had run its course, but the pace of BEVs penetration remained the main challenge for the PGMs demand, Metals Focus said in its 104-page report.

BEVs currently account for 14% of auto production, up from 11% at the beginning of 2023, Metals Focus said. This impact has been partly offset by a pickup in hybrid vehicles, which need PGMs. These now have a 22% share of light duty vehicles, up from 18% at the start of 2023.

The competition between the metals inside the group saw a change in 2023 with the slowing substitution of palladium with platinum as the two approached price parity.

“Going forward, we expect substitution will stall,” Metals Focus said.

On the supply side, lower palladium and rhodium prices have squeezed margins, with half of South African mines operating uneconomically on an all-in sustaining cost basis, an industry metric that reflects total expenses, at the end of 2023.

Many miners sought to reduce costs, and this process will keep supply constrained this year causing another year of structural deficit, which in its turn is going to be covered by existing above-ground stocks.

“Trading behaviours that dominated 2023 will continue to play a large role in shaping prices in 2024,” Metals Focus said.

In 2024, Metals Focus expects average prices for platinum to slide by 1% to $960 per troy ounce, for palladium to decline by 23% to $1,030, and for rhodium to fall 28% to $4,750.

PGMs market balance and price forecast by Metals Focus

(By Polina Devitt; Editing by Nick Macfie)

The autocatalyst maker added that it expected all platinum group metals (PGM) – platinum, palladium, and rhodium – to remain in deficit in 2024.

The three metals are used in autocatalysts that reduce emissions from vehicle engines, with platinum also used in other industry and for jewellery and investment.

Johnson Matthey (JM) said it expected the platinum market’s deficit to increase to 598,000 ounces this year from a shortfall of 518,000 ounces in 2023.

It forecast platinum demand would stabilize at around 7.61 million ounces, with small decreases in automotive and jewellery balanced by an uptick in investment.

Auto sector consumption is expected to slip 1.3% in 2024, while primary supply is projected to fall 2% as Russian shipments return to more normal levels following heavy selling of mined stocks in 2023, JM said.

For palladium, JM said use by automakers would fall about 7%, reducing overall demand to 9.73 million ounces and cutting the market deficit to 358,000 ounces from 1.02 million ounces last year.

For rhodium, auto consumption is also expected to fall – by about 6% – dragging total demand down 4% to 1.06 million ounces. The rhodium market is likely to be undersupplied by 65,000 ounces, down from 125,000 ounces in 2023, JM said.

“Automotive and industrial users bought more metal than they needed during 2020-2022 to mitigate price and supply risks. Since then, consumers have been using up excess PGM inventory, and some have even sold metal back to the market,” Rupen Raithatha, market research director at Johnson Matthey, said.

At around $950 an ounce, palladium is trading lower than platinum at $960, pressured by growing demand concerns.

Rhodium is trading around $4,700 an ounce, down about 84% from all-time highs reached in March 2021.

(By Brijesh Patel; Editing by Mark Potter)

BHP’s unsolicited offer “significantly undervalued” the 107-year-old mining company and would be “highly unattractive” to its shareholders, Anglo said on Friday in a response widely expected by analysts. 

“The BHP proposal is opportunistic and fails to value Anglo American’s prospects,” Anglo chairman Stuart Chambers said in the statement.

The bid contemplated a structure which the board believes is “highly unattractive for Anglo American’s shareholders, given the uncertainty and complexity inherent in the proposal, and significant execution risks.”

Analysts and some of Anglo’s top investors agreed on Thursday that BHP’s initial offer was significantly lower than the kind of price that would compel the miner to consider the proposal. If BHP wants to initiate negotiations, it will need a sweeter offer.

BHP’s proposal is valued at £25.08 per Anglo share, a 14% premium to the target company’s closing price on Wednesday. For Jefferies’ Christopher LaFemina, a price of at least £28 per share would be necessary for serious discussions to take place.

“If we include our estimate of synergies on an after-tax present value basis, we estimate Anglo fair value to be 2824p per share, which equates to a $42.6 billion equity value. That is 28% above the most recent Anglo share price, and we believe it is a reasonable starting point,” LaFemina wrote.

“Anglo American shareholders may consider fair value closer to the share price in 2023 before operational issues emerged and other suitors may be compelled to act at this price,” said James Whiteside, metals and mining research director at Wood Mackenzie.

BMO analyst Alexander Pierce believes there is room for an improved offer adding that it would be up to management to show how the merger can drive value. “The combined entity would have EBITDA of about $33 billion and would easily be the largest mining company globally, including the world’s largest copper producer at nearly 2Mtpa attributable, which could bring some regulatory scrutiny,” Pierce wrote. “However, copper exposure would reduce overall for Anglo American shareholders, while iron ore would increase.”

Elliot’s $1 billion play

Amid the buzz triggered by the potential tie-up, news of Elliott Investment Management silently building a nearly $1 billion stake in Anglo American, has come to light. The move, reported first by Bloomberg, adds to the challenges Anglo American faces following its refusal of BHP’s approach.

The activist hedge fund, headed by Paul Singer, has been acquiring shares over the past few months, according to sources familiar with the matter quoted by Bloomberg. 

The size of the stake would place Elliott as one of the miner’s top 10 shareholders.

The activist investor is not a stranger to mining. In 2017, it acquired a large stake in BHP and pressured the company to divest certain oil assets. By 2021, the world’s largest miner had made agreements to further reduce its involvement in fossil fuels, such as selling its oil and gas operations to Woodside Petroleum Ltd.

Both Elliott and Anglo American declined to provide comments on the matter.

Copper thirsty

A merger would give BHP about 10% of global copper production. It would also boost its presence in the world’s top copper producing countries, Chile and Peru, as it would gain access to four of the world’s largest copper mines — Collahuasi (with ownership of 44%), Los Bronces (50.1%), El Soldado (50.1%) and Quellaveco (60%). This would improve the company’s exposure to the metal, a key actor in the world’s ongoing energy transition, by about 40%. 

“With copper representing 30% of Anglo American’s total production, and with the benefit of well-sequenced and value-accretive growth options in copper and other structurally attractive products, the board believes that Anglo American’s shareholders stand to benefit from what we expect to be significant value appreciation as the full impact of those trends materializes,” Anglo chairman Chambers said.

Anglo has been a takeover target in recent years after output fell and costs mounted. Potential suitors have been discouraged along the way by Anglo’s complex business structure and mix of commodities, including platinum and diamonds.

Under takeover rules, BHP is required to either make a solid offer for Anglo American by May 22 or walk away.

The potential agreement is already being compared to BHP merger with South Africa’s Billiton in 2001. Another BHP mega-merger attempt was its 2007 bid to acquire rival Rio Tinto, which was rebuffed.

The precious metals producer kicked off in October a business review at its gold mines in the home country, which revealed the need to address losses at Beatrix 1 shaft and Kloof 4 shaft. 

The precious metals producer noted Beatrix 1 has failed to achieve the planned production, while Kloof 4 shaft has been already shut. 

The planned move is in line with the Sibanye-Stillwater’s previous cost-cutting measures, that saw it axe jobs at all its platinum group metal (PGMs) operations, including those in the United States.

Prices for the main PGMs — platinum and palladium — plummeted by about 38% and 63%, respectively, in 2023.

The company has faced headwinds at its US operations beyond issues related to the price collapse of PGMs, used in catalysts that curb toxic vehicle emissions. Those mines have been affected by weather-related incidents, particularly flooding.

Job losses are also expected at the miner’s Kloof 2 plant, which has had insufficient processing material after the Kloof 4 shaft was closed last year, Sibanye-Stillwater added.

“We continue to act prudently to protect the balance sheet and ensure the sustainability of the Group. We are committed to constructively engaging with affected employees and through their representatives to minimize job losses,” chief executive Neal Froneman said in the statement.

Sibanye-Stillwater’s boss recently indicated his company is considering raising about $500 million through prepayment arrangements, such as metals streaming, to strengthen its cash position.

The Stillwater West project – which is also prospective for copper, cobalt, platinum group elements and gold – represents the largest nickel resource in an active US mining district, according to estimates by Stillwater Critical.

In a January 2023 technical report, the company defined 1.6 billion lb. of nickel, copper and cobalt in inferred resources, and 3.8 million oz. of palladium, platinum, rhodium and gold, all contained within 255 million tonnes of material at an average grade of 0.39% nickel equivalent (or 1.19 g/t palladium equivalent).

This resource was 62% higher in tonnage compared to the project’s inaugural estimate, and is contained within five deposits in the 9-kilometre central area of the property, all of which are open along strike and at depth.

The Stillwater district itself has a rich mining history for PGEs, nickel, copper, chromium as well as other commodities. The Stillwater West project is located right next to the high-grade PGE mines operated by Sibanye-Stillwater, which have over 14 million oz. of palladium and platinum in past production.

“We are pleased to have Glencore’s continued support through their participation in this placement as we advance our flagship Stillwater West project as a large-scale source of nine metals that are now listed as critical in the US,” Stillwater CEO Michael Rowley said in a news release.

In total, the company has raised C$2.5 million via a private placement of units priced at C$0.14 each, with Glencore’s order being by far the largest. The units have an exercise price of C$0.21, and would provide up to C$1.875 million in additional funding should they be exercised.

Last June, the commodity trading giant made its first investment by purchasing C$4.94 million worth of Stillwater Critical’s units, then priced at C$0.25 each, to gain a 9.99% interest in the company on a non-diluted basis.

Shares in Stillwater Critical Minerals closed Thursday’s session 3.5% higher at C$0.145 apiece. The company has a market capitalization of C$28.7 million.

Along with close relative rhodium, the two metals are chiefly used in the catalytic converters used to clean exhaust fumes by the auto sector, an area that accounts for some 40% of platinum demand, and 80% of palladium offtake.

Losing that demand will be significant for all three metals – and for palladium and rhodium, there is currently no other industry that can realistically replace the volumes that will be lost as consumers transition to electric vehicles, which don’t need autocatalysts.

Analysts see a long tail for PGMs use in traditional internal combustion engines, and a drop in supply as mining becomes less economic has kept prices relatively well supported. But with fellow precious metal gold at all-time highs this year, that’s a disappointing performance.

“The PGM sector is facing a shift in which palladium and rhodium will see declining demand with no major alternative demand sector on the forecast horizon,” Wilma Swarts, head of PGMs at consultancy Metals Focus, told Reuters.

Estimates of when the erosion of PGM demand from auto makers will become significant vary, and depend on views of future sales of pure internal combustion vehicles versus hybrid or electric vehicles.

According to analysts at Macquarie, demand for both platinum and palladium from the auto sector will start falling beyond 2025.

Earlier this decade palladium was a standout performer among precious metals, more than tripling in price between late 2018 and early 2022 to more than $3,000 an ounce. At just over $1,000 an ounce, it has now given up the price premium it had held to platinum since 2018.

Both palladium , down 9% so far this year after a 39% slump in 2023, and rhodium, a small, illiquid market which has clawed back a little ground this year after dropping almost two-thirds in 2023, have further to slide, according to analysts whose estimates cover the next five years.

But platinum , down 9% so far in 2024 after sliding 8% in 2023, may fare better. It is the only major metal in the group that is expected to rise by 2028 from last year’s level, helped by demand in non-auto industries such as jewellery.

Producers and analysts also hope the metal has potential to benefit from new demand from the hydrogen economy via fuel cell vehicles, a slower-growing competitor to battery electric technology in cars.

But hopes for an acceleration of demand from fuel cell vehicles appear to be built on shaky ground.

“The current pace of deployment of fuel cell vehicles is certainly disappointing,” said one person at a company involved with the technology.

In Macquarie’s base case scenario, total annual hydrogen-related demand will struggle to rise materially above 250,000 ounces of platinum by 2030. For comparison, the auto sector currently consumes 3.3 million ounces of platinum a year.

Analysts are more certain that the supply side will support platinum in the future through declining output from mines.

The World Platinum Investment Council, whose members are major Western producers, expects platinum to be in an average annual deficit of 500,000 ounces until 2028. Shortages will cut above-ground stocks to six weeks of demand by end-2028 from 23 weeks at end-2023.

Macquarie’s five-year outlook, which sees average 2028 palladium prices falling by 40% from 2023 levels to $800 per ounce, conversely expects platinum prices to rise to $1,250 an ounce by 2028, up 29% from 2023.

For South Africa’s platinum miners, that is cold comfort. According to consultancy Metals Focus, South African PGM miners currently get just 35% of their revenue from platinum.

Even at current prices, around half of South African mines are producing their PGMs at a loss, prompting them to rely on other products such as chrome. Mines in North America are under pressure too, according to Metals Focus.

“Palladium was over-valued compared to platinum in recent years,” said a major PGMs producer. “That was certainly very pleasant, but it’s over.”

(By Polina Devitt and Ashitha Shivaprasad; Editing by Veronica Brown and Jan Harvey)

African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) said on Friday it was deferring plans to expand output at its Bokoni mine due to low platinum group metal (PGM) prices after reporting a 43% drop in its half-year profit.

The diversified South African miner’s headline earnings declined to 2.96 billion rand ($158.5 million) in the six months to December 2023, from 5.17 billion rand previously, as lower thermal coal and PGM prices hit income.

ARM cut its interim dividend to 6 rand per share, from 14 rand per share previously.

The miner acquired the Bokoni mine in South Africa from Anglo American Platinum and Atlatsa Resources Corporation in 2022 as part of its plans to expand PGM output.

Bokoni mine, which had been put under care and maintenance by its previous owners in 2017, resumed production in November 2023, with plans to further expand output.

However, the sharp fall in PGM prices over the past year, mainly due to weaker demand in China and an uncertain global economic outlook, has forced South African miners, who account for 70% of world output, to suspend projects and cut costs.

ARM said a bankable feasibility study for the phased development of Bokoni, a key step towards securing funding, had been deferred “due to depressed commodity prices and uncertain immediate outlook”.

The company said the prices of palladium and rhodium fell 42% and 70%, respectively, during the period under review, resulting in a 40% decline in the average realized rand price for its set of PGMs.

ARM said its immediate priority is to conserve cash while ramping up production on a phased basis from the installed capacity of 60,000 metric tons of ore per month using existing infrastructure.

($1 = 18.6702 rand)

(By Nelson Banya; Editing by Jamie Freed, Eileen Soreng and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

The precious metals producer kicked off in October a restructuring process at its four loss-making mines that was expected to result in the loss of 4,095 jobs. 

Sibanye-Stillwater said the reduction in the number of layoffs was possible thanks to strategic decisions taken in consultation with interested parties. These include going ahead with the announced closure of the Simunye shaft, which ceased production in 2023, as well as keeping the 4 Belt (4B) shaft at Marikana open.

The miner said that the Marikana mine shaft, which employs 1,496 permanent workers and 54 contractors, will only stay in production if it does not run up net losses on a monthly basis.

Two other shafts, Rowland and Siphumelele, which were hit by operational and geological issues, “have been repositioned for sustainable levels of production at a lower cost structure”, Sibanye-Stillwater said.

The Johannesburg-based firm noted that almost 1,300 employees had voluntarily left their jobs or accepted early retirement packages, while 467 people left since September due to “natural attrition”.

The company said earlier this week that it expects to report a 91% loss for 2023 due to multiyear-lows for platinum-group metals prices. It also flagged an impairment of 47.5 billion rand ($2.58 billion). 

Palladium and platinum prices decline has driven producers in South Africa, including Sibanye-Stillwater to apply severe cost-cutting measures. 

Impala Platinum Holdings has offered voluntary job cuts, including at its deep-level Rustenburg complex, while Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) has announced plans to cut 3,700 jobs after its profit plunged 71% last year.

The company said it expects to report in March a loss per share for 2023 of 12.68 rand to 14.01 rand, compared with a profit of 6.51 rand a share the previous year. This is equivalent to an eye-popping 91% drop in annual profit.

The announcement comes only two months after the South African miner announced it would lay off 1,500 workers from its gold mines. It also said at the time it had begun talks that could affect 4,000 more employees at its platinum group metals (PGMs) operations, including those in the United States.

“We have already taken proactive steps to address loss-making production at unprofitable operations and the group remains focused on ensuring the sustainability of our business and delivering on our strategical essentials through this period of low commodity prices,” the company said in a statement.

Sibanye shares fell more than 5% in afternoon trading in Johannesburg, closing at ZAC 1,994. The stock has lost almost 48% of its value in the past year, mainly due to the prices decline of palladium and rhodium.

The sharp drop of PGMs prices decline has driven producers to apply severe cost-cutting measures. Anglo American Platinum said on Monday it would cut 3,700 jobs at its South African operations, or 17% of the Anglo American unit’s workforce. 

Impala Platinum Holdings has offered voluntary job cuts, including at its deep-level Rustenburg complex.

Despite the challenges, Sibanye noted that all its South African and Australian operations were profitable before the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. 

RELATED: In election year, South African mines bleed cash, jobs

A year where the gold price sets an all-time record should be unalloyed good news for the mining and exploration industry, which despite all the buzz surrounding battery metals and the energy transition still represents the backbone of the junior market.

Metal and mineral markets are volatile at the best of times – the nickel, cobalt and lithium price collapse in 2023 was extreme but not entirely unprecedented. Rare earth producers, platinum group metal watchers, iron ore followers, and gold and silver bugs for that matter, have been through worse.

Mining companies have become better at navigating choppy waters, but the forced closure of one of the biggest copper mines to come into production in recent decades served as a stark reminder of the outsized risks miners face over and above market swings.

Panama shuts down giant copper mine

After months of protests and political pressure, at the end of November the Panama government ordered the closure of First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panama mine following a ruling by the Supreme Court that declared the mining contract for the operation unconstitutional.

Public figures including climate activist Greta Thunberg and Hollywood actor Leonardo Di Caprio backed the protests and shared a video calling for the “mega mine” to cease operations, which quickly went viral. 

FQM’s latest statement on Friday said Panama’s government hasn’t provided a legal basis to the Vancouver-based company for pursuing the closure plan, a plan that the industries ministry of the central American nation said will only be presented in June next year.

FQM has filed two notices of arbitration over the closure of the mine, which has not been operating since protesters blocked access to its shipping port in October. However, arbitration would not be the company’s preferred outcome, said CEO Tristan Pascall.

In the aftermath of the unrest, FQM has said it should have better communicated the value of the $10 billion mine to the wider public, and will now spend more time engaging with Panamanians ahead of a national election next year. FQM shares have bounced in the past week, but is still trading more than 50% below the high hit during July this year.

Projected copper deficit evaporates

Cobre Panama’s shutdown and unexpected operational disruptions forcing copper mining companies to slash output has seen the sudden removal of around 600,000 tons of expected supply would, moving the market from a large expected surplus into balance, or even a deficit.

The next couple of years were supposed to be a time of plenty for copper, thanks to a series of big new projects starting up around the world.

The expectation across most of the industry was for a comfortable surplus before the market tightens again later this decade when surging demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure is expected to collide with a lack of new mines.

Instead, the mining industry has highlighted how vulnerable supply can be — whether due to political and social opposition, the difficulty of developing new operations, or simply the day-to-day challenge of pulling rocks up from deep beneath the earth.

Lithium price routed on supply surge

The price of lithium was decimated in 2023, but predictions for next year are far from rosy. Lithium demand from electric vehicles is still growing rapidly, but the supply response has overwhelmed the market.

Global lithium supply, meanwhile, will jump by 40% in 2024, UBS said earlier this month, to more than 1.4 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent.

Output in top producers Australia and Latin America will rise 22% and 29% respectively, while that in Africa is expected to double, driven by projects in Zimbabwe, the bank said.

Chinese production will also jump 40% in the next two years, said UBS, driven by a major CATL project in southern Jiangxi province.

The investment bank expects Chinese lithium carbonate prices could fall by more than 30% next year, dipping as low as 80,000 yuan ($14,800) per tonne in 2024, averaging at around 100,000 yuan, equivalent to production costs in Jiangxi, China’s biggest producing region of the chemical.

Lithium assets still in high demand

In October, Albemarle Corp. walked away from its $4.2 billion takeover of Liontown Resources Ltd., after Australia’s richest woman built up a blocking minority and effectively scuppered one of the largest battery-metals deals to date.

Eager to add new supply, Albemarle had pursued its Perth-based target for months, eying its Kathleen Valley project — one of Australia’s most promising deposits. Liontown agreed to the US company’s “best and final” offer of A$3 a share in September — a near 100% premium to the price before Albemarle’s takeover interest was made public in March.

Albemarle had to contend with the arrival of combative mining tycoon Gina Rinehart, as her Hancock Prospecting steadily built up a 19.9% stake in Liontown. Last week, she became the single largest investor, with enough clout to potentially block a shareholder vote on the deal.

In December, SQM teamed up with Hancock Prospecting to make a sweetened A$1.7 billion ($1.14 billion) bid for Australian lithium developer Azure Minerals, the three parties said on Tuesday.

The deal would give the world’s no.2 lithium producer SQM a foothold in Australia with a stake in Azure’s Andover project and a partnership with Hancock, which has rail infrastructure and local experience in developing mines.

Chile, Mexico take control of lithium

This week Chile’s President Gabriel Boric hailed the formation of a new government-controlled lithium partnership that fuses assets of state-run Codelco with private miner SQM, as the leftist leader advances his push for greater public control over the battery metal. 

SQM said it would partner with copper giant Codelco for the future development and production of the metal in the Atacama salt flat, in a tie-up set to kick off in 2025 and run through 2060.

The deal gives Codelco majority control in line with the president’s plans announced in April to strengthen state control of lithium to generate more broad-based benefits from surging demand and to allow only public-private partnerships to participate in its exploitation.

For much of the year, the firms had been locked in talks over the future of lithium mining and production in the salt flat, located in Chile’s north and the home to 90% of the nation’s lithium reserves. The South American country has the world’s largest proven lithium reserves.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in February signed a decree handing over responsibility for lithium reserves to the energy ministry.

Lopez Obrador urged the private sector to work with the new state miner, saying the size of the investment needed means the government needs partners.

But analysts argue that companies are more likely to focus near-term investments in Chile or Argentina’s sprawling salt flats, where industries are more established and policies more market-friendly.

In August, Chinese lithium giant Ganfeng said Mexico’s mining authorities had issued a notice to its local subsidiaries indicating nine of its concessions had been terminated.

Gold to build on record-setting year

The New York futures price of gold set an all-time high at the beginning of December and looks set to surpass the peak going into the new year. 

London’s gold price benchmark hit an all-time high of $2,069.40 per troy ounce at an afternoon auction on Wednesday, surpassing the previous record of $2,067.15 set in August 2020, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) said.

“I can think of no clearer demonstration of gold’s role as a store of value than the enthusiasm with which investors across the world have turned to the metal during the recent economic and geopolitical turmoils,” said LMBA’s chief executive officer Ruth Crowell. 

JPMorgan predicted a new record back in July but expected the new high to occur in the second quarter of 2024. The basis of JPMorgan’s optimism for 2024 – falling US interest rates – remains intact:

“The bank has an average price target of $2,175 an ounce for bullion in the final quarter of 2024, with risks skewed to the upside on a forecast for a mild US recession that’s likely to hit sometime before the Fed starts easing.”

Even as gold climbed new peaks, exploration spending on the precious metal dipped. A study published in November overall mining exploration budgets fell this year for the first time since 2020, dropping 3% to $12.8 billion at the 2,235 companies that allocated funds to find or expand deposits.

Despite the sparkling gold price, gold exploration budgets, which historically have been driven more by the junior mining sector than any other metal or mineral, dropped by 16% or $1.1 billion year-on-year to just under $6 billion, representing 46% of the global total. 

That’s down from 54% in 2022 amid higher spending on lithium, nickel and other battery metals, a surge in spending on uranium and rare earths and an uptick for copper. 

Mining’s year of M&A, spin-offs, IPOs, and SPAC deals

In December, speculation about Anglo American (LON: AAL) becoming the target of a takeover by a rival or a private equity firm mounted, as weakness in the shares of the diversified miner persisted.

If Anglo American doesn’t turn operations around and its share price continues to lag, Jefferies analysts say they can’t “rule out the possibility that Anglo is involved in the broader trend of industry consolidation,” according to their research note.

In October, Newcrest Mining shareholders voted strongly in favour of accepting the roughly $17 billion buyout bid from global gold mining giant Newmont Corporation.

Newmont (NYSE: NEM) plans to raise $2 billion in cash through mine sales and project divestments following the acquisition. The acquisition brings the company’s value to around $50 billion and adds five active mines and two advanced projects to Newmont’s portfolio.

Breakups and spin-offs were also a big part of 2023 corporate developments.

After being rebuffed several times in its bid to buy all of Teck Resources, Glencore and its Japanese partner are in a better position to bring the $9 billion bid for the diversified Canadian miner’s coal unit to a close. Glencore CEO Gary Nagle’s initial bid for the entire company faced stiff opposition from Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government and from the premier of British Columbia, where the company is based.

Vale (NYSE: VALE) is not seeking new partners for its base metals unit following a recent equity sale, but could consider an IPO for the unit within three or four years, CEO Eduardo Bartolomeo said in October.

Vale recruited former Anglo American Plc boss Mark Cutifani in April to lead an independent board to oversee the $26-billion copper and nickel unit created in July when the Brazilian parent company sold 10% to Saudi fund Manara Minerals.

Shares in Indonesian copper and gold miner, PT Amman Mineral Internasional, have surged more than fourfold since listing in July and are set to keep rising after its inclusion in major emerging market indexes in November.

Amman Mineral’s $715 million IPO was the largest in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy this year and counted on strong demand by global and domestic funds.

Not all dealmaking went smoothly this year.

Announced in June, a $1 billion metals deal by blank-cheque fund ACG Acquisition Co to acquire a Brazilian nickel and and a copper-gold mine from Appian Capital, was terminated in September.

The deal was backed by Glencore, Chrysler parent Stellantis and Volkswagen’s battery unit PowerCo through an equity investment, but as nickel prices slumped there was a lack of interest from minority investors at the stage of the $300 million equity offering which ACG planned as part of the deal.

Talks in 2022 to acquire the mines also fell through after bidder Sibanye-Stillwater pulled out. That transaction is now the subject of legal proceedings after Appian filed a $1.2 billion claim against the South African miner.

Uranium upsurge

In late November uranium prices scaled $80 per pound for the first time in 15 years, driven by a resurgence in demand for nuclear power and supply disruptions.

Global yellowcake supply might reach 145 million lb. this year or next according to the World Nuclear Association. But annual demand is already at 180 million lb. and the industry group expects it to nearly double to 300 million lb. by 2040.

Some 60 nuclear plants are under construction globally and more are planned. Countries like Germany and Japan that considered phasing them out are reversing course.

Activity in northern Saskatchewan’s Athabasca uranium hotspot is intensifying. NexGen received environmental approval for its Rook I project in November, the province’s first OK for such a project in two decades. Denison Mines released a feasibility study for its Wheeler River project before investing in junior explorer F3 Uranium’s Patterson Lake North property.

Also, IsoEnergy took over Consolidated Uranium in September. Uranium Energy spent C$570 million over the past two years buying Uranium One, UEX Corp. and Rio Tinto’s Roughrider project. Cameco and Brookfield Renewable Partners in October closed their deal to buy Westinghouse’s nuclear plant construction unit for $7.9 billion.

Nickel nosedive

In April, Indonesia’s PT Trimegah Bangun Persada, better known as Harita Nickel, raised 10 trillion rupiah ($672 million) in what was then Indonesia’s largest initial public offering of the year. 

Harita Nickel’s IPO quickly turned sour for investors, however, as prices for the metal entered a steady and long decline. Nickel is the worst performer among the base metals, nearly halving in value after starting 2023 trading above $30,000 a tonne.

Next year is not looking great for the devil’s copper either with top producer Nornickel predicting a widening surplus due to lacklustre demand from electric vehicles and a ramp-up in supply from Indonesia, which also comes with a thick layer of cobalt:

“…due to the continuing destocking cycle in the EV supply chain, a greater share of non-nickel LFP batteries, and a partial shift from BEV to PHEV sales in China. Meanwhile, the launch of new Indonesian nickel capacities continued at a high pace.” 

Palladium also had a rough year, down by more than a third in 2023 despite a late charge from multi-year lows hit at the start of December. Palladium was last trading at $1,150 an ounce.

China flexes its critical mineral muscle

In July China announced it will clamp down on exports of two obscure yet crucial metals in an escalation of the trade war on technology with the US and Europe.

Beijing said exporters will need to apply for licenses from the commerce ministry if they want to start or continue to ship gallium and germanium out of the country and will be required to report details of the overseas buyers and their applications.

China is overwhelmingly the top source of both metals — accounting for 94% of gallium supply and 83% of germanium, according to a European Union study on critical raw materials this year. The two metals have a vast array of specialist uses across chipmaking, communications equipment and defence.

In October, China said it would require export permits for some graphite products to protect national security. China is the world’s top graphite producer and exporter. It also refines more than 90% of the world’s graphite into the material that is used in virtually all EV battery anodes, which is the negatively charged portion of a battery.

US miners said China’s move underscores the need for Washington to ease its own permit review process. Nearly one-third of the graphite consumed in the United States comes from China, according to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents auto supply chain companies.

In December, Beijing banned the export of technology to make rare earth magnets on Thursday, adding it to a ban already in place on technology to extract and separate the critical materials.

Rare earths are a group of 17 metals used to make magnets that turn power into motion for use in electric vehicles, wind turbines and electronics.

While Western countries are trying to launch their own rare earth processing operations, the ban is expected to have the biggest impact on so-called “heavy rare earths,” used in electric vehicle motors, medical devices and weaponry, where China has a virtual monopoly on refining.

Rhodium has lost two thirds of its market value and palladium a third during 2023, pushing the six-element PGM basket price to $1,250 per oz., two thirds lower than its peak in April 2021, the World Platinum Investment Council says in a report released on Thursday.

The PGM supply deficit is forecast at 8% of demand through 2027 while above ground stocks may fall by 70% during the period to 1.4 million oz., the council said. A quarter of mines are operating unprofitably and putting them on care and maintenance will worsen the supply problem, it said.

“The decline in PGM basket prices over the last 12 months has materially undermined the economic sustainability of significant portions of primary supply,” the council said. “Markets are already projected to be in deficit through our two- to five-year forecast horizon. This, we believe, strengthens the investment case for platinum.”

The price drop is partially due to how supplies from the main PGM producers South Africa and Russia haven’t been disrupted as much as the industry predicted. Declines in their currencies haven’t offset lower prices in US dollars and production cost inflation, putting profitability of their miners at risk. It is forcing mines to increase production to reduce unit costs, sell excess inventory to generate more cash, slash capital spending, renegotiate supply agreements and cut dividend payments.

Output at risk

Mothballing mines to weather the poor prices could put 1.3 million oz. of platinum output and 1.2 million oz. of palladium production at risk, the council said. Primary platinum production is forecast to average about 5.6 million oz. a year between 2020 to 2024, which is 9% lower than the five-year annual average production of 6.1 million oz. from 2015 to 2019, according to the report. Palladium output may fall 6%, the council said.

The ramp up of projects at Northam Platinum’s Booysendal, Eland and Zondereinde; African Rainbow Minerals’ Two Rivers; Implala Platinum Holdings’ (JSE: IMP) Styldrift and Zimplats; Sibanye-Stillwater’s (JSE: SSW; NYSE: SBSW) Stillwater and K4; and Anglo American’s (LSE: ALL) Motololo could add about 1 million oz. of annual PGM production growth, the council said.

Mines depend on prices when fixed costs account for about a quarter of an open pit mine and two thirds of an underground mine, the council says. The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of primary PGM miners have fallen an average of 54% in this year’s first half compared to the same period in 2022. That’s more than double the 21% revenue drop during the same period.

Still, some miners have an operating cushion after higher prices during 2020-22.

“Being largely debt free should provide some headroom to take one or several short-term actions to improve or tolerate current margins,” the council said. “However, we estimate that these types of actions are only likely to reduce loss-making ounces by 5-10%.”

In its Platinum Quarterly report released this week, the WPIC highlights a booming demand for the metal, slated to rocket by 27%, hitting 8.23 million ounces. This overshadows a barely changing supply forecast, stagnating at 7.22 million oz., just 31,000 oz. above last year’s figures.

“These statistics spotlight a market under intense pressure, with potential ramifications for investors and industries dependent on this precious metal,” WPIC research director Ed Sterck tells The Northern Miner in an interview. (See video below)

The recovering automotive sector drives this demand upswing, with Sterck’s data projecting a 13% (or 381,000 oz.) increase in 2023. Ramped-up vehicle production rates underpin this surge, with forecasts indicating a 6% and 7% growth for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicle production, respectively.

Sterck highlighted the ongoing platinum for palladium substitution in gasoline vehicles, an adjustment dictated mainly by the existing price differential between the two materials. On the industrial front, significant capacity additions in the chemical and glass sectors are influencing the demand surge.

The Chinese government has been implementing stricter emission standards from July 1, further bolstering platinum demand as industries integrate more platinum group metal (PGM) coated particulate filter systems. This trend is set to elevate the global platinum automotive demand to an anticipated 3.28 million ounces.

Simultaneously, the industrial sector is smashing records, with predictions setting the demand at 2.67 million oz., a notable 14% year-on-year increase. This rise mainly stems from substantial capacity expansions in the glass and chemical sectors, seeing growth rates of 50% (251,000 oz.) and 12% (82,000 oz.), respectively. In contrast, the electrical and petroleum segments anticipate a dip in demand, slated to fall by 8% (9,000 oz.) and 11% (22,000 oz.).

Investment circles also embrace the platinum trend, with predictions setting the net investment demand at 386,000 oz. for 2023. Platinum ETF holdings experienced a significant surge, growing by 155,000 oz. in the June quarter, marking the most substantial quarterly increase since the third quarter of 2020.

Stagnant supply

However, the supply side fails to mirror this burgeoning demand, notes Sterck.

Refined mine production of platinum has plummeted by 4% or 65,000 oz. over last year, settling at 1.46 million oz. in Q2. South Africa, which contributes 75% of global supply, saw a 9% dip in output year-on-year, a decrease linked to ongoing maintenance activities and relentless power disruptions due to the state-owned power utility’s ongoing load curtailments.

Sterck says recycling avenues, too, are on a downturn, reporting a 12% reduction in global recycling in the second quarter.

According to Sterck, these trends underscore the dwindling availability of above-ground stocks to cushion this growing deficit, hinting at a precarious situation where, by the end of 2023, the stocks might cover only five months of annual demand. “A significant portion of these reserves, held in China, are not readily exportable to meet global demands, potentially heightening concerns over metal availability,” Sterck says.

As the market tightens, the intertwined narratives of soaring demand and constricted supply are positioned to offer both short and long-term value incentives for investors. Moreover, platinum’s pivotal role in facilitating a green hydrogen economy, albeit nascent in 2023, is set to burgeon substantially in the medium term, carving a promising pathway for investors seeking a stake in global decarbonization efforts.

VIdeo is here: https://vimeo.com/862155056

Muller said there was no immediate risk of mine closures, but management would weigh each mine’s potential to generate profit, given the price fall.

The Johannesburg-based miner on Thursday said headline earnings in the year to June 30 declined 41% to 18.8 billion rand and cut its full-year dividend by 65% to 5.85 rand per share.

Impala and its South African peers, including Sibanye Stillwater and Anglo American Platinum, had been making record returns when rhodium hit almost $30,000 an ounce in 2021 and palladium surged to more than $3,400 an ounce after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.

Rhodium, which was trading around $4,100 per ounce on Thursday, has dropped more than two thirds in 2023 so far, while palladium, at around $1,230 an ounce, is down 31% this year.

Muller said the company understood the record high prices were not sustainable, but the precipitous decline, particularly in rhodium and palladium, was a surprise.

“It was the speed at which it happened that surprised us, not necessarily the fact that record highs we experienced from 2021 have not been maintained,” Muller told a conference call.

South Africa is the world’s top rhodium supplier and second-largest palladium producer behind Russia. The metals are used in catalysts that curb toxic vehicle emissions.

Production of the metals has also been hit by rolling power cuts in South Africa that reduced Impala’s platinum metals output by 4% to 2.9 million ounces in the year to June 30.

Impala shares in Johannesburg were down 3% by 1241 GMT.

The company hopes to boost output from next year, which could proportionately lower its production costs.

Its output should rise as it incorporates assets acquired from Royal Bafokeng Platinum, which it acquired in a deal finalized this month. Its refined platinum group metals output is expected to rise to between 3.3 million and 3.45 million ounces.

Analysts said that weaker demand from China and the impact from Russian metal being sold at a discount in the Asian economy could be contributing to the fall in prices.

“China’s lower platinum group metals demand and the prioritization of discounted Russian material has been a key driver in our view,” UBS said in a note.

(By Felix Njini and Swati Verma; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Barbara Lewis and David Goodman)

The restrictions — most frequently taxes, but also quantitative limits — have increased more than five-fold in the last decade to a point where 10% of the global value of exports is subject to at least one measure, the OECD said.

China, India, Argentina, Russia, Vietnam and Kazakhstan are the top six in terms of new curbs in the last decade. Those are also among the countries many of the OECD’s members depend on for supply, the organization said.

“The research so far suggests that export restrictions may be playing a non-trivial role in international markets for critical raw materials, affecting availability and prices,” researchers Przemyslaw Kowalski and Clarisse Legendre said. “Taking into account OECD dependencies on relevant imports described in this paper, this situation warrants scrutiny.”

The findings come as the OECD also said a significant scaling up of production and trade in the materials is needed to meet an expected four-to-six-fold increase in demand for the green transition.

Lithium, rare earth elements, chromium, arsenic, cobalt, titanium, selenium and magnesium saw the largest increase in production in recent years.

“While the production and trade of most critical raw materials has expanded rapidly over the last ten years, growth is not keeping pace with projected demand for the metals and minerals needed to transform the global economy,” the OECD said.

(By William Horobin)

South Africa’s Northam Platinum has terminated its offer to buy Royal Bafokeng Platinum, citing low prices of platinum group metals (PGM) as it ended a year-long takeover battle with bigger rival Impala Platinum.

Northam had outbid Impala’s initial offer to acquire RBPlat, but on Wednesday said that PGM prices had fallen to levels amounting to a “material adverse change” that proved fatal to its offer.

“Northam Holdings hereby notifies RBPlat shareholders that the offer is terminated with immediate effect,” it said.

The miner said that the rhodium closing price has remained below $9,000 an ounce for 12 consecutive trading days, while the basket price for four PGMs had fallen below 33,000 rand ($1,830.91) per ounce for 10 consecutive trading days.

Northam’s decision to end its pursuit of RBPlat clears the path for Impala, the world’s second-biggest PGM producer, to strengthen its hold on a miner with high-grade assets that made it an attractive takeover target.

Impala and Northam have built holdings in RBPlat of 40.71% and 34.52% respectively during the takeover battle.

Northam did not say whether it would retain its stake or sell to Impala, but Northam chief executive Paul Dunne told analysts on March 24 that his company could consider jointly running RBPlat with Impala.

($1 = 18.0238 rand)

(By Anait Miridzhanian and Nelson Banya; Editing by Jan Harvey and David Goodman)

“Will our investors continue to get their returns? Yes, they will, but the size of returns will be slightly softer,” Chief Executive Officer Natascha Viljoen said in an interview. “Will it be the returns we had in 2021? probably not.”

A year ago, the Anglo American Plc unit announced a record payout as automaker demand buoyed the price of rhodium and palladium, which are produced as byproducts of platinum mining. While metal prices have slipped back from 2021 levels, the biggest drag faced by miners are intensifying power blackouts as state-owned utility Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. struggles to keep its unreliable coal-fired plants working.

The challenges are “worrying” as they hit hard on a sector that’s already grappling with criminal activities and sabotage at mine sites, said Viljoen. She added that the extra time she devotes to managing power outages means she only gets about six hours sleep a night. Still, at current prices, Amplats’s margins are “really good,” she said.

The power outages could cut South Africa’s output of platinum-group metals by a fifth this year, after an estimated reduction of 10% in 2022, Sibanye Stillwater Ltd. CEO Neal Froneman said in an interview last week. While the lower volumes of metals being mined from South Africa will probably help buoy prices, producers will struggle to keep a lid on costs, he said.

“What is for sure is earnings will be impacted negatively,” Froneman said in an interview. “Companies may still have some flexibility to ensure dividends and payouts to shareholders and stakeholders can still be met.”

(By Felix Njini)

The new inferred resource estimate raised tonnage by 62% compared with figures from 2021, according to a company filing on Wednesday. Contained metal jumped across the board: nickel up 52%; copper 44%, cobalt 31%; platinum 66%, gold 30% and rhodium 76%.

“These increases speak to the fantastic growth potential and under-explored nature of the Stillwater West project,” president and chief executive officer Michael Rowley said in a news release. “Its world-class endowment of eight critical minerals is unique in the United States as a district-scale asset located in an active, producing district that has a long history of large-scale critical mineral production.”

The project about 320 km southeast of state capital Helena in the Stillwater igneous complex lies beside Sibanye-Stillwater’s Stillwater, East Boulder, and Blitz mines, the world’s highest-grade major platinum group metals operations and largest outside South Africa and Russia.

Stillwater is among companies in the exploration surge for battery and other minerals deemed critical by Western nations for modern technology and to challenge China’s dominance in their production. The Vancouver-based company says it sees similarities between the project’s site and the world’s largest reserves of platinum group metals north of Pretoria, where Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) is developing its Platreef project.

Danie Grobler, vice-president of exploration, is working with Prof. Wolfgang Maier at Cardiff University in Wales on models targeting the ultramafic mineralization at Stillwater and how it compares with the bushveld complex in South Africa.

“Our 2023 exploration programs will be focused on expansion of these thick zones of mineralized pegmatoidal pyroxenite/peridotite and associated chromites, as well as broad zones of massive to net-textured sulphides near the base of the layered sequence,” Grobler said in the release. “We are seeing similar metal distribution characteristics when compared to the Platreef.”

The 32-km-long Montana project’s new resource estimate is focused on five deposits in its 9-km central area, all open along strike and at depth with geophysical anomalies showing expansion potential, Stillwater said. The project could use a conventional flotation recovery process since sulphur grades of 1.13% to 6.16% indicate high nickel in the sulphide, it said.

The company has also inventoried 2.3 billion lb. of critical mineral chromium.

The Stillwater West project has 255 million tonnes grading 0.19% nickel, 0.09% copper, 0.02% cobalt, 0.15 gram platinum per tonne, 0.25 gram palladium, 0.05 gram and 0.02 gram rhodium (0.39% nickel-equivalent and 1.19 grams palladium-equivalent per tonne), according to the company filing. The cut-off grade is 0.2% nickel.

Contained metal is 1.1 billion lb. nickel, 499 million lb. copper, 91 million lb. cobalt, 1.2 million oz. platinum, 2.1 million oz. palladium, 395,000 oz. gold and 115,000 oz. rhodium (2.2 billion lb. nickel-equivalent and 9.8 million oz. palladium-equivalent).

That compares with a 2021 estimate of 157 million tonnes grading 0.2% nickel, 0.1% copper, 0.02% cobalt, 0.15 gram platinum, 0.26 gram palladium, 0.06 gram gold, and 0.01 gram rhodium per tonne (0.45% nickel-equivalent and 1.2 grams palladium-equivalent).

Contained metal was 694 million lb. nickel, 347 million lb. copper, 69.4 million lb. cobalt, 758,000 oz. platinum, 1.3 million oz. palladium, 303,000 oz. gold and 61,000 oz. rhodium (1.6 billion lb. nickel-equivalent and 6.1 million oz. palladium-equivalent).

Visualizing the metals you can buy with $1,000

For millennia people have purchased and relied on metals for decorative and industrial uses, figuring out their values based on their practical applications and visual luster.

Today, precious and industrial metals markets quote figures in millions and billions as they exchange thousands of ounces, with varying densities and values of metals making it difficult to compare them.

Using price data from TradingEconomics, this graphic visualizes how much of each metal you can buy for $1,000 so you can see just how much, or how little, of each metal you get for your money.

How we value precious and industrial metals

Characterized by their natural shine, metals are valued using the two key principles of rarity and their industrial uses, with unique properties such as their appearance or cultural significance also affecting their value.

• Rarity: A more scarce metal or resource will often have a higher value than one which is more abundant.
  • For example, while there are an estimated 2.1 billion tonnes of identified copper deposits, there are only 57,000 tonnes of underground gold reserves. While copper is valued at $0.24 per troy ounce, gold is worth around $1,815 per troy ounce.
• Industrial uses: Metals which are needed for important industrial processes will often have a high demand from manufacturers, increasing their valuation.
  • For example, for most of its history cobalt was used decoratively for its striking blue color and for the creation of superalloys and steel products. However, when it was recently discovered that cobalt could be a key component in lithium-ion batteries for EVs, demand for cobalt surged sending its price from around $23,000 per tonne to more than $90,000 per tonne at one point.

Along with these two primary factors, unique properties and historical uses can also affect a metal’s valuation.

Former monetary metals like gold and silver are still sought after by investors for their potential ability to retain value over time compared to today’s fiat currencies. Meanwhile, platinum’s durability, resistance to tarnishing, and its bright white color makes it highly sought after for jewelry, raising the demand and value of the precious metal.

Getting less for more: Comparing metal density

A key factor that determines the volume of a metal you get for a certain price is also the metal’s density. Precious metals tend to be more dense than industrial metals, with sometimes more than double the density depending on the specific metals compared.

As seen in the graphic above, $1,000 worth of highly dense metals like gold (19.32 g/cm³), iridium (22.56 g/cm³), and osmium (22.59 g/cm³) amount to small cubes less than a centimeter across. Meanwhile, $1,000 of a less dense (and also less valuable) metal like aluminum with a density of only 2.7 g/cm³ yields a large cube nearly two feet tall.

To put these densities in comparison, if gold had the same density as aluminum, its cube on the graphic above would be more than seven times larger.

While it’s impossible to directly compare the value of each metal’s industrial uses and applications, seeing just how much (or how little) of a metal you get for $1,000 can give some perspective to their value.

(This article first appeared in the Visual Capitalist Elements)

The proposed mine, located 10 km from Marathon, Ontario, is expected to produce an average of 245,000 ounces of palladium equivalent production annually over an estimated 13-year mine life. 

Platinum group metals, which includes palladium, platinum and rhodium, are key materials used in n the manufacturing of catalytic converters, which remove harmful chemicals from car exhaust emissions. 

Copper, the other metal to be produced at the mine, is a critical in the manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and associated charging infrastructure. An EV battery requires 2.5 times more copper than a standard internal combustion engine vehicle. 

Generation Mining said it would now proceed with obtaining any additional permits from federal offices, including Fisheries and Oceans as well as the department of Natural Resources.

“The minerals mined through this project, mainly palladium and copper, will play an important role in Canada’s transition to a low-carbon economy,” Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault said in a statement.

It is also expected to help build the supply chain for critical minerals and the automotive manufacturing industry in Ontario, the province said in a separate statement.

Hundreds of jobs

Building the Marathon mine will require the construction, operation, decommissioning and remediation of three open pits. It would also need an on-site ore processing facility, a 115 kV transmission line, an access road and a water management system among other infrastructure.

The processing plant will operate at about 9.2 million tonnes a year of ore to produce about 87,000 tonnes of copper concentrate annually. The concentrate will be delivered to a third-party facility for further downstream processing into refined critical minerals.

Site construction is anticipated to take 18 to 24 months and will employ around 900 workers. The operating workforce is estimated at 375 people, Ontario’s Minister of Mines George Pirie said.

Based on current mineral reserves, Marathon is expected to deliver 1.91 million ounces of palladium, 467 million pounds of copper, 537,000 ounces of platinum, 151,000 ounces of gold and 2.82 million ounces of silver in payable metals.

Guilbeault, who is also responsible for the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada, noted that approving the Marathon project will also result in important benefits for members of Biigtigong Nishnaabeg First Nation.

Ontario’s mining industry generates more than C$11 billion in annual mineral production and supports 75,000 direct and indirect jobs.

The sector is the largest private employer of Indigenous peoples in Canada. In Ontario, First Nation workers made up 11% of the province’s direct mining jobs.

Law enforcement officials also executed 32 search warrants and seized millions of dollars in assets including homes, bank accounts, cash and luxury vehicles, the Department of Justice said Wednesday in a news release. The government is seeking forfeiture of more than $545 million in connection with the case.

“This national network of criminals hurt victims across the country,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said in the statement. “They made hundreds of millions of dollars in the process — on the backs of thousands of innocent car owners.”

Metal thieves in search of platinum, rhodium and palladium have been stealing catalytic converters in ever-greater numbers, sending auto-insurance claims soaring across the country, State Farm said earlier this year. The insurer said it paid $62.6 million for 32,265 catalytic converter theft claims nationally — a 1,173% increase from 2019.

A catalytic converter is an emissions-control device that’s in the exhaust system under many gas-powered vehicles.

The defendants in the theft ring were charged in two separate indictments in California and Oklahoma federal courts.

California has higher emissions standards than the rest of US, so catalytic converters on vehicles registered in the state contain higher concentrations of precious metals, the US said in a court filing in Sacramento federal court.

“Last year approximately 1,600 catalytic converters were reportedly stolen in California each month, and California accounts for 37% of all catalytic converter theft claims nationwide,” said US Attorney Phillip Talbert for the Eastern District of California.

The thieves know which vehicle makes and models contain the most precious metals in the catalytic converters, the government said in the court filing.

“The design of the Toyota Prius and other hybrid vehicles employ a very high concentration of palladium,” the US said. “Therefore, they are targeted by thieves for their high value, specifically the 2004-2009 model years.”

The nine people charged in Sacramento were involved in a conspiracy to ship the stolen catalytic converters from California to DG Auto facilities in New Jersey, where the precious metal powders were extracted and sold for profit, the US said.

DG Auto employees created a pricing application for both Apple and Android platforms that provided real-time pricing information for catalytic converter thieves and their customers, according to the indictment.

A call to DG Auto was forwarded to an answering machine, which said the mailbox was full and couldn’t accept any more messages.

The cases are US v. Khanna, 22-cr-0213, US District Court, Eastern District of California (Sacramento) and US v. Khanna, 22-cr-348, US District Court, Northern District of Oklahoma.

(By Joe Schneider)

 The mining industry relies on a relatively small number of giant deposits to fuel growth — and new discoveries of this nature are few and far between. 

Using data from sister company Miningintelligence, MINING.COM compiled a ranking of the world’s 10 richest working base and precious metal mines by calculating the aggregate value of mineral resources based on ruling prices. 

Number 1 on the list, Norilsk Nickel’s eponymous operations in Russia’s far north, date back to 1960 with the discovery of the Talnakhskoye field although the refinery processing Soviet nickel output started up decades earlier. Today a complex of several mines around Norilsk extract the Ni, Cu, Pt, Pd and Au metals from the magmatic sulphide deposit.      

The second most valuable orebody in the world being mined today – Olympic Dam in South Australia – was discovered in the mid-1970s, while no. 3 Mogalakwena in South Africa began operations in the 1990s. The world’s largest copper mine Escondida, which sits at no. 4 on the list, was discovered in 1981 but wouldn’t hit current production in excess of one million tonnes per year before 2004. 

While these mines are approaching middle age, they are relative newcomers considering that no 8 Morenci began operations in 1873, mining activity at no. 4 Collahuasi dates back to the 1880s,  no. 10 Los Bronces went into production in 1916 and Grasberg (then Ertsberg or Ore Mountain) was first explored in 1936. Indeed, the world’s top 20 copper mines have a weighted average age of nearly 100 years from initial discovery.     

The discovery of Congo’s Tenke Fungurume dates back to the 1970s, but standout on the list for its youth is Kamoa Kakula with first production only in May last year although the high-grade copper deposit in the DRC was first discovered in the early 2000s. 

Mining’s 2022 has been a particularly volatile year with a few metals – including bellwether copper – hitting all-time highs during the first quarter only to plunge to multi-year lows during the summer. 

Measured from the start of the year all base metals – except nickel – are down by double digit percentage points with copper officially in a bear market with a 20% drop in 2022. Among precious metals palladium is showing gains for the year and platinum is trading flat, but gold is down nearly 10% and silver has lost 16% in value. 

A back of the envelope calculation shows the value of the contained metal at Norilsk would’ve pushed $1.5  trillion back when palladium (representing 43% of the dollar value) was trading above $3,000, nickel (30%) over $48,000 and copper (19%) more than $10,000 back in March. 

The same sum for Olympic Dam sees the copper (64% of the overall value), gold (19%), uranium (15%) and silver mine also top a $1  trillion measured using the 52-week highs of the metals and nuclear fuel. Uranium’s comeback continues to gain momentum and the price of yellowcake is up more than 20% since the start of the year.

While not nearly all the contained metals in measured and indicated resources in these deposits will be extracted, the exercise does illustrate just what valuable assets mines like these are. And perhaps more pertinent – just how uneven rich deposits like these are scattered across the planet.

More data is at Miningintelligence.

Platreef is a palladium, rhodium, nickel, platinum, copper and gold development project that is 64% owned by Ivanhoe. A 26% interest is held by Ivanhoe’s broad-based, black economic empowerment (B-BBEE) partners, which include 20 local host communities with approximately 150,000 people, project employees and local entrepreneurs. A Japanese consortium owns the remaining 10% interest.

The project hosts a thick, underground deposit known as Flatreef, containing approximately 58.8 million oz. of precious metals (palladium, rhodium, platinum and gold), as well as 6.2 billion lb. of copper and nickel in indicated resources, plus 94.3 million oz. of precious metals and 11.9 billion lb. of copper and nickel in inferred resources.

It is located on the northern limb of South Africa’s Bushveld Complex, where platinum group metals mineralization is primarily hosted within the Platreef, a mineralized sequence that is traced more than 30 km along strike.

Ivanhoe’s project, within the Platreef’s southern sector, comprises two contiguous properties: Turfspruit and Macalacaskop. Turfspruit, the northernmost property, is contiguous to Anglo Platinum’s Mogalakwena group of properties. The Flatreef deposit lies entirely on the Turfspruit and Macalacaskop properties.

The initial scope of the development plan is to fast-track Platreef into production, starting with an initial 700,000 t/y underground mine using the existing Shaft 1 and a new on-site concentrator. First concentrate production from Phase 1 is planned for Q3 2024, with the Phase 2 expansion expected following the commissioning of Shaft 2 in 2027.

Phase 1 average annual production is expected to be 113,000 oz. of precious metals, plus 5 million lb. of nickel and 3 million lb. of copper. The average annual production of the Phase 2 expansion is expected to increase to 591,000 oz., plus 26 million lb. of nickel and 16 million lb. of copper.

Platreef is projected to become Africa’s lowest-cost producer of platinum group metals, nickel, copper and gold.

New exploration territory

The new exploration rights form a continuous block situated on the southwest border of Ivanhoe’s existing Platreef mining rights at Turfspruit and Macalacaskop, which together cover 78 square kilometres in area.

The exploration rights overlap a significant geophysical gravity anomaly known as the “Mokopane Feeder”, the centre of which is located approximately 10 km from Platreef’s Shaft 1.

“The Bushveld Complex sits among the most unique and valuable mineral endowments on our planet. These exploration rights are postulated to be geologically significant by our leading geoscientists. The new exploration rights are located at the intersection of a highly significant gravity geophysical anomaly and major regional geological structures,” said Robert Friedland, Ivanhoe’s executive co-chairman.

“Therefore, the ‘Mokopane Feeder’ may be related to the actual source of the giant mineralizing system feeding the entire northern limb of the Bushveld Complex,” he added.

The Bushveld Complex is currently the largest known, layered igneous complex in the world and is host to the largest known reserves of platinum group metals, chromium and vanadium, as well as gold and base metals including nickel and copper.

According to the geological team at Ivanhoe, the “Mokopane Feeder” anomaly is the most significant gravity feature in the entire Bushveld Complex. Academic studies based on historical data hypothesized that the anomaly represents a primary feeder zone to the Rustenburg layered suite of the northern limb.

To better understand the conceptual “Mokopane Feeder” target, Ivanhoe said it will begin a detailed high-resolution, airborne-magnetic and gradiometer-gravity survey over the project area. The surveys are expected to be completed in early 2023.

The company’s evaluation of the flagship Stillwater West project continues to confirm more parallels to South Africa’s Bushveld Igneous Complex, and positions the company as the second-largest landholder in the Stillwater Complex, with a 100%-owned position next to Sibanye-Stillwater’s (JSE: SSW; NYSE: SBSW) PGE mines in south-central Montana.

“Given global geopolitical tension on several fronts, the world is increasingly looking towards North America and other first-world jurisdictions to supply the critical minerals such as PGMs, nickel, cobalt, copper and gold the modern economy requires,” Rowley said in an interview with The Northern Miner.

“With Stillwater West, we’re at a remarkable sweet spot. It’s got a lot of data, a supportive U.S. Geological Survey backing, but it’s, remarkably, not well understood,” Rowley said. “We’re rewriting the book on the Lower Stillwater Complex, quite literally. And there’s a lot of potential there. It’s a big and well-mineralized system.”

Since acquiring the project in 2017, Stillwater Critical, then known as Group 10 Metals, has focused on the potential for Stillwater West to host large-scale Platreef-style nickel and copper sulphide deposits, enriched in palladium, platinum, rhodium, gold and cobalt.

The company’s work to date has confirmed Stillwater West’s location in the Stillwater Igneous Complex relative to Sibanye-Stillwater’s productive J-M Reef deposits as comparable to Ivanhoe Mines’ (TSX: IVN; US-OTC: IVPAF) Platreef deposit and Anglo American’s (LSE: AAL) PGE-nickel-copper Mogalakwena mine in a similar geologic setting in the U.S.

Stillwater’s most important milestone yet was the release in October 2021 of an initial inferred resource estimate encompassing five Platreef-style deposits totalling 1.1 billion lb. of nickel, copper and cobalt, and 2.4 million ounces of palladium, platinum, rhodium and gold. The constrained model totals 157 million inferred tonnes averaging 0.45% total nickel-equivalent (or 1.2 grams palladium-equivalent per tonne), using a 0.2% nickel-equivalent cut-off.

Since then, Stillwater Critical has reported several wide, high-grade battery and precious metal intercepts in wide step-outs from known mineralization in expansion drilling.

Notable comparables

The $16 million, 5-year, government-funded project will employ NASA’s Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer high-altitude earth remote sensing platform and MODIS/ASTER Airborne Simulator to collect hyperspectral data over large regions in the arid and semi-arid western United States. 

Hyperspectral data are reflections of light from surfaces, measured across hundreds of frequency bands. These measurements capture not only light visible to the eye, but also bands of light beyond the visible, into the infrared.

According to the USGS and NASA, the data collected can be very useful in studying surface rock formations because each mineral in rocks has its own unique reflection characteristics across the various bands of light. Thus, looking for these patterns or ‘spectral signatures’ can help identify locations with high potential for mineral resources.

The research will also include evaluating critical mineral potential in mine waste.

“Mine waste is receiving increasing attention for its potential to contain critical mineral resources, particularly those that are most often produced as byproducts, while also offering an opportunity for remediation of contaminated sites,” the agencies said in a media statement.

“For instance, the USGS recently analyzed mine tailings from historical iron production in the Adirondacks of New York for rare earth element potential.”

The Geological Survey has also used hyperspectral data in the past to analyze mineral potential in Alaska, while finding these data useful for understanding a variety of other earth science and biological issues including geologic acid mine drainage, debris flows, agriculture, wildfires and biodiversity.

“This exciting scientific effort is made possible through President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law’s investments and will enable NASA and the USGS to leverage our unique capabilities toward a common goal,” USGS director, David Applegate, said in the press brief.

“The data we’re collecting will be foundational for not only critical minerals research but also for a wide range of other scientific applications, from natural hazards mitigation to ecosystem restoration.”

The $16 million allocated to this project are part of a larger, $510.7 million investment provided by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law for the USGS to support integrated mapping and interpretation of mineral resources data, the preservation of data from geochemical samples from Earth MRI, and the construction of a USGS energy and minerals research center in Golden, Colorado.

In a paper published in the journal JACS Au, the scientists explain that, globally, more than 1 billion people contract a fungal infection and that although they are harmless to most, over 1.5 million patients die each year as a result of such infections.

According to the group led by Angelo Frei, despite more and more fungal strains becoming resistant to one or more of the available drugs, the development of new drugs has come to a virtual standstill in recent years. This lack of interest is what inspired him and his colleagues to look into using metals to breathe new life into the search for treatments.

“The opinion that metals are fundamentally harmful to us is widespread. However, this is only partially true. The decisive factor is which metal is used and in which form,” Frei said in a media statement. “Many of the metal compounds [tested] demonstrated a good activity against all fungal strains and were up to 30,000 times more active against fungi than against human cells.”

The researcher said that out of the 21 compounds, the 11 most active ones were tested in a model organism, the larvae of the wax moth. Only one of the metal compounds showed signs of toxicity, while the others were well tolerated by the larvae. In a subsequent step, some metal compounds were tested in an infection model, and one compound effectively reduced the fungal infection in larvae.

“Our hope is that our work will improve the reputation of metals in medical applications and motivate other research groups to further explore this large but relatively unexplored field,” Frei said.

“If we exploit the full potential of the periodic table, we may be able to prevent a future where we don’t have any effective antibiotics and active agents to prevent and treat fungal infections.”

Extreme volatility on metal and mining markets intensified in the second quarter and after hitting record highs in March, copper, nickel, aluminium, zinc and tin went into meltdown mode over the three months to end June. 

Copper is trading at its lowest since November.  After soaring above $200 this time last year iron ore prices are again coming dangerously close to double digits. 

Despite historically low stockpiles – 700kt vs 2.4m tonnes a year ago – industrial metals continue to be hammered down. Nickel’s wild ride ended up going nowhere with the price of the stainless steel ingredient back to where it started the year. 

After initially offering safe harbour for investors, gold has now also succumbed to weakness dropping to nine month lows this week.

While prices for lithium have held not far off recent all-time highs, stock prices have not. The Ukraine war lit a fire under PGMs, only to give up those gains and more.

Tough at the top

As fear overtook greed in Q2, MINING.COM’s TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners fell by $383 billion – based on primary exchange share price movements converted into US dollars – over the course of the second quarter and are now worth $1.37 trillion, down from $1.75 trillion at the end of March this year. 

As an indication of just how volatile the market has become and how much sentiment has changed over the last three months measured from the stocks’ 52-week highs, mining’s top tier stocks lost a stunning $636 billion. 

The top 10 mining companies lost a combined $289 billion – with BHP one of the worst performers. At the end of June, nervous investors had shaved nearly $50 billion, or 28% from the market value of the world’s largest miner since the stock hit a record high little less than a year ago (and came within an inch of that level again in April).  

Among the heavyweights, pureplay copper producers were hardest hit and most of those losses came in the past couple of weeks.

Freeport, the world’s number two copper producer behind Chile’s state-owned Codelco, has lost 30% year-to-date while Southern Copper, Antofagasta, First Quantum and Jiangxi are all down 20% or more.  

Cool coal 

After spending time outside the top 10 last year, Glencore just pipped Vale’s market cap at the end of June to become the world’s third most valuable mining company. Unlike its peers, Glencore has not abandoned coal mining amid a spike in prices, and its trading arm is benefiting from sky high prices for energy, helping the Swiss firm stay in the black year to date.   

Coal companies are the best performers on the index – with Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal both up more than 65% this year and the world’s top producer, Coal India, also enjoying a bull market, up nearly 20% in 2022.

While coal producers did well across the board, the top performer year to date and Chile’s sole entry into the ranking is lithium extractor SQM.

Russian resilience 

While trading on Western markets in Russian stocks have been halted, the country’s miners, much like the rouble and the Moscow Stock Exchange, have proved resilient. 

While there is a measure of artificiality to the valuation of the likes of Norilsk Nickel because of captive investors on the MCX, it is remarkable that the palladium, nickel and copper producer has managed to show gains so far in 2022 and strong gains in Q2 after the resumption of trading.  

Diamond giant Alrosa also returns to the ranking thanks to a robust quarter, and Polyus is just in positive territory YTD.

Chinese cheer

With the addition of Huayou Cobalt at position no 23, the combined value of miners from China has now surpassed that of the US at $236 billion versus $185 billion. The market worth of the country’s miners was boosted by coal and lithium mining, with Tianqi and Ganfeng both jumping in value in the second quarter.  

In terms of numbers, China now also has the most firms represented at ten, followed by Canada, the US and South Africa. Australia is down to 5 representatives after lithium company Mineral Resources had to make way for uranium giant Kazatomprom, which returns to the ranking based on units in the company trading in London. 

*NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, Miningintelligence, Morningstar, GoogleFinance, company reports. Trading data from primary-listed exchange at June 30, 2022 where applicable, currency cross-rates July 4, 2022. 

Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.

Market capitalization calculated at primary exchange from total shares outstanding, not only free-floating shares.

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious issues. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining, which owns the world’s largest gold mine, Eurochem, a major potash firm, Singapore-based trader Trafigura,  and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding was another central consideration. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals.

Lithium and battery metals also pose a problem due to the booming market for electric vehicles and a trend towards vertical integration by battery manufacturers and mid-stream chemical companies.  Battery producer and refiner Ganfeng Lithium, for example, is included because it has moved aggressively downstream through acquisitions and joint ventures.   

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem as do diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking as well as Kumba Iron Ore.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.

Following an initial assessment of the impact of weather-triggered inundation and mudslides, Sibanye-Stillwater said that its operations were largely unaffected.

Access to the East Boulder mine and Columbus metallurgical facilities remains intact and both facilities continued operating during the flooding events, the company said.

Around its Stillwater mine, which accounts for 60% of the company’s production in the US, several bridges were damaged, and sections of the primary access road have been severely eroded. This has restricted access to the mine and required rerouting of water, tailings and other piping, the company said.

Sibanye-Stillwater said it has started remediation work on its east/west access bridge, which will be completed in a month. Operations at Stillwater mine will remain suspended longer, until safe access to the mine is restored and production can resume.

“We will continue to work with the local authorities and other stakeholders to fast-track the recovery of the region,” chief executive Neal Froneman said in a statement.

The South African company’s mines in the US produced a combined 570,400 ounces of platinum group metals last year.

The device, called a “catalytic condenser,” is the first to demonstrate that alternative materials that are electronically modified to provide new properties can yield faster, more efficient chemical processing.

In a paper published in the journal JACS Au, the scientists behind the innovation explain that it opens the door for new catalytic technologies using non-precious metal catalysts for applications such as storing renewable energy, making renewable fuels, and manufacturing sustainable materials.

The inspiration behind this work is what the group sees as a major barrier to advancing technology: the short supply of rhodium and palladium, globally, and their high prices.

Given this state of affairs, the researchers decided to use their knowledge of how electrons behave on surfaces to test a theory that states that adding and removing electrons to one material could turn the metal oxide into something that mimicked the properties of another.

“Atoms really do not want to change their number of electrons, but we invented the catalytic condenser device that allows us to tune the number of electrons at the surface of the catalyst,” Paul Dauenhauer, the professor of chemical engineering and materials science at the University of Minnesota that led the research team, said in a media statement.

“This opens up an entirely new opportunity for controlling chemistry and making abundant materials act like precious materials.”

The catalytic condenser device uses a combination of nanometer films to move and stabilize electrons at the surface of the catalyst. This design has the unique mechanism of combining metals and metal oxides with graphene to enable fast electron flow with surfaces that are tunable for chemistry.

“Using various thin-film technologies, we combined a nano-scale film of alumina made from low-cost abundant aluminum metal with graphene, which we were then able to tune to take on the properties of other materials,” Tzia Ming Onn, a post-doctoral researcher who fabricated and tested the catalytic condensers, said.

“The substantial ability to tune the catalytic and electronic properties of the catalyst exceeded our expectations.”

According to Dauenhauer and Onn, the catalytic condenser design has broad utility as a platform device for a range of manufacturing applications. This versatility comes from its nanometer fabrication that incorporates graphene as an enabling component of the active surface layer.

The scientists also explained that the power of the device to stabilize electrons (or the absence of electrons called “holes”) is tunable with varying compositions of a strongly insulating internal layer. The device’s active layer also can incorporate any base catalyst material with additional additives, that can then be tuned to achieve the properties of expensive catalytic materials.

“We view the catalytic condenser as a platform technology that can be implemented across a host of manufacturing applications,” co-author Dan Frisbie said. “The core design insights and novel components can be modified to almost any chemistry we can imagine.”

The team plans to continue their research on catalytic condensers by applying them to precious metals for some of the most important sustainability and environmental problems.

The company said that sustained warm weather in the past days led to rapid snow melt in mountains, which, together with heavy rainfall over the weekend, caused flooding of numerous rivers in the region where its mines are located.

The torrential rain has also triggered mudslides, which have damaged road and bridges. “This is likely to restrict access to the Stillwater mine for some period that will be better known in the next few days,” spokesman James Wellsted said in a statement.

Wellsted added that the East Boulder mine was less affected and access to it currently remains intact.

The impact of the floods on production is yet to be determined, the company said, noting that no injuries have been reported after the incident.

Sibanye-Stillwater’s Montana mines produced a combined 570,400 ounces of PGMs last year. These operations account for around 20% of the company’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, according to BMO analysts’ estimates.

The record flooding and rockslides forced Yellowstone National Park, which spans parts of Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho, to shut for the first time in 34 years.

It is uncertain how many visitors are stranded or have been forced to leave the park and how many people who live outside it have been rescued and evacuated.