Ukrainian military analysts said this week that Russian troops had moved to within about 7.5 km (4.6 miles) of Pokrovsk, overwhelming Ukraine’s stretched defences with vastly superior numbers and equipment.

Over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces repelled 31 Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk sector, the military said.

The mine lies 10 km (6.2 miles) west of the town, a strategic supply hub, in the opposite direction to the advancing Russian forces.

The industry source, who asked not to be named, did not say at what point the mine’s owner, metallurgical group Metinvest, might be forced to halt operations and evacuate staff.

Earlier, Metinvest said it was prioritizing workers’ safety and was helping to evacuate the families of employees from the frontline area.

Ukraine’s steelmakers’ union said this month the potential closure of the Pokrovsk mine, the only domestic source of coking coal essential for steelmaking, could cause steel production to slump to 2 million-3 million metric tons next year from the 7.5 million expected in 2024.

Producers hope to find alternative sources of coking coal from elsewhere in Ukraine should the Pokrovsk mine be seized by Russian troops, but imports would inevitably be needed – hiking their costs.

(By Pavel Polityuk; Editing by Helen Popper)

The company said on Monday that its full-year nickel production forecast was now at 196,000-204,000 metric tons, up from 184,000-194,000 tons previously. The new target was still below the 209,000 tons produced in 2023.

The company said it had produced 146,210 tons of nickel in the first nine months of the year as the furnace at its flagship Nadezhda smelter went back into operation after major repairs in August.

As a result, the company reported a 16% quarter-on-quarter increase in nickel output in the third quarter.

Its palladium production guidance was increased to between 2.624 million and 2.728 million ounces, up from 2.296 million to 2.451 million ounces previously. Palladium output was up 1% year on year at 2.156 million ounces in the nine months of 2024.

Nornickel’s operations director Alexander Popov said the company increased nine-month copper and palladium output year on year while platinum and nickel were unchanged.

The “positive dynamics” were attributed to improved operational efficiency and increase mined ore, he said in a statement.

Nornickel is not subject to direct Western sanctions, though sanctions against Moscow have prompted some Western producers to avoid buying Russian metal and complicated payments, leading Nornickel to redirect sales to Asia.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova and Gleb Bryanski; Editing by David Goodman)

Without Ozernoye’s substantial contribution to global mined zinc supply next year, a shortage of zinc concentrate – a raw material to make zinc metal, used to galvanize steel, is likely to persist. Concern over tight supplies is one of the drivers that has pushed zinc prices to a 20-month high.

Asked about the possible delay, Ozernoye told Reuters it plans next year to produce concentrate “in volume comparable to the previously announced targets”.

Ozernoye officially launched production in September, saying that it would reach full capacity of about 320,000 metric tons of zinc in concentrate in 2025.

That represents 2.5% of next year’s global mined zinc supply estimated at 12.86 million tons, industry group the International Lead & Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said.

The ILZSG included the ramp-up of Ozernoye in its forecasts of robust growth of 8.9% in new mining zinc supply outside China in 2025.

The sources, who asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said Ozernoye had yet to produce any material as it could not find an adequate replacement for the components that process rocks into powder-form concentrate.

Those parts were damaged by a fire in November 2023.

Ozernoye did not give any production targets when approached by smelters and traders interested in buying their concentrates next year, the sources said.

The components Ozernoye needs were developed and are made by commodity trader Glencore’s subsidiary Glencore Technology. Glencore taps an Australian zinc-lead deposit with a similar mineral composition to that of Ozernoye.

Glencore can no longer sell the concentrator parts to Ozernoye, which the US government placed under sanctions shortly after the fire.

Glencore declined to comment. The Swiss trader-miner said only it would “fully comply with all sanctions applicable to our business activities”.

Ozernoye is working with local company TEM Partner to try to replicate Glencore’s system, one source said. Production may start in November, the same source said.

The company statement said its equipment was made in Russia by its “in-house design bureau”.

It said it expected to achieve “project capacity within a year from the start of commissioning,” without specifying when that was.

“The part of the flotation equipment, which has already been commissioned, is behaving stably and the first batches of zinc concentrates have been received,” it said.

The uncertainty over Ozernoye’s output adds to the impact of other disruption, including Century’s force majeure and a slower-than-expected ramp-up at Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Reflecting the difficulty of sourcing concentrate, zinc treatment charges (TC), the fees a smelter earns for converting concentrate into refined metal and a gauge of concentrates’ availability, dropped to minus $40 a ton end of September, according to pricing agency SMM.

The lower TC pushed some zinc smelters into losses and they had to cut production.

(By Julian Luk; Editing by Pratima Desai and Barbara Lewis)

The Biden administration floated the potential restrictions at a meeting of G-7 finance officials in Washington this week as it mulls fresh ways to squeeze President Vladimir Putin’s war efforts. Russia’s MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC is the biggest producer of palladium, which is mainly used in catalytic converters for automobiles. Norilsk Nickel’s press service declined to comment.

While Norilsk Nickel accounts for around 40% of global output, the company now sells most of its output to China, according to a person familiar with situation. It still sells some to the US, as no import ban for the metal is currently in place, the person said.

Still, sanctions risks “have reignited buying activity,” said Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities. Commodity trading advisor trend followers are adding to their palladium bullish positions, he said. “Fear is the trade.”

Shares of the four biggest palladium producers in South Africa — the world’s second-largest source of the metal — all jumped by more than 10%. One of them, Sibanye Stillwater Ltd., recently announced cuts to palladium output at its US mines due to weak prices.

Palladium has fallen about 37% since the start of last year and almost two-thirds from a March 2022 peak, which miners attribute to a subdued global economy and destocking by manufacturers.

The possibility of removing Russian palladium from the market may tighten the market as “South Africa and the other major producers won’t be able to fill the gap,” said Dan Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading.

Gold pared gains after latest data pointed to economic resilience in the US, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve may take a measured approach to monetary easing. Rising yields and higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on gold, as the metal doesn’t pay interest.

Palladium rose 5.1% at $1,119.88 an ounce as of 10:38 a.m. in New York. Gold gained 0.3% at $2,723.98 after earlier rising by as much as 1%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0.1%. Silver slid while platinum advanced.

(By William Clowes and Yvonne Yue Li)

Biden administration officials floated the possibility during a meeting of G-7 deputy finance ministers on Tuesday in Washington, according to the person, who asked not to be identified discussing a private discussion. Finance officials from around the world have gathered in the US capital for annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

The US raised the idea to spur conversation about further choking off the Russian economy almost three years after Putin’s forces invaded Ukraine, the person said.

Palladium is a key ingredient in computer chips and in catalytic converters for automobiles, while titanium has uses from airplanes to medical implants.

One major challenge is that Europe is reliant on the metals and has shown little appetite to target them in the past. G-7 members Germany, France and Italy would also need the backing of the other 24 members of the European Union for such sanctions.

The US has already blacklisted Russian titanium, but the metals are key inputs for everything from catalytic converters to semiconductors to airplanes, and western governments have been wary of cutting off supplies for fear of roiling global markets and disrupting their own supply chains.

The Treasury Department declined to comment.

Western nations have long struggled with their approach to metals sanctions on Russia. The price of palladium rose as much as 12% in December on speculation the metal could be next in line for restrictions after the UK issued sanctions on purchases of certain Russian metals. Earlier this year, the US and UK imposed restrictions on trading Russian aluminum, copper and nickel.

Sanctioning titanium would also provide a combative response to a recent proposal by Putin. In September, he suggested his government should think about limiting exports of some commodities such as nickel, titanium and uranium in retaliation for western sanctions after ensuring that it wouldn’t hurt Russia.

The US still buys Russian palladium. Russian company Norilsk Nickel represents about 40% of global output, a share of the market that would be hard to replace quickly.

For the European Union, supplies of both metals from Russia are critical, especially for titanium used in aviation. Putin has asked his government to consider limiting exports of titanium, which could drive prices up and hurt European airplane manufacturers such as Airbus.

(By Daniel Flatley)

Potash production is expected to reach 73 million metric tons this year, with Russian exports at 12-13 million tons and those from Belarus at around 10 million tons, Julia Campbell, head of the potash pricing service at commodity price agency Argus, said.

Potash prices have started to normalize following a period of volatility following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Russian exports dropped sharply after the war in Ukraine began due to financial and logistical challenges. But these problems have since eased,” Campbell said.

Increased exports from Canada, Jordan and Laos have also boosted global supply and brought down prices, adding to the fears of possible oversupply, with a slight improvement in demand expected only in 2025.

During their half-year earnings reporting, major potash producers such as Germany’s K+S sounded optimistic about growing demand and stabilizing prices.

However, analysts have since warned the abundant global supply would put a cap on pricing, dampening the companies’ earnings prospects.

“I don’t think there’s likely to be any sort of premium pricing or any real pricing benefit as a result of the global supply shift and the global trade shift. We saw that mostly in 2022 and into 2023 when prices were still moderating,” Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein told Reuters.

As such, Canada’s share of global potash trade increased significantly in 2022, while those of Belarus and Russia declined. Prices have since dropped below $300 a ton from a mid-2022 peak of $1,000, on weak demand, data from Argus showed.

“We are likely nearing the operational cost of production, which may force some companies to curb production,” Rabobank analyst Paul Joules said.

Canada’s Nutrien, the world’s top producer of the mineral mainly used in fertilizers, suspended its ramp-up plans for potash production in August, citing market conditions.

Rising shipments, growing concerns

Russian producers have increased shipments to China and India via new rail routes since Russia exited the Black Sea grain deal last year. This has boosted demand in Southeast Asia and South America, Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein said.

Belarusian exporters have shifted cargo from Baltic ports to Russian ones and are offering potash at a discount via these new routes bypassing sanctions, he added.

Meanwhile, Swiss-based Eurochem is expanding facilities at its Usolskiy and Volgakaliy sites in Russia.

“The MOP (muriate of potash, or potassium chloride) sector specifically, is already experiencing a period of very heavy supply,” said Humphrey Knight, an analyst at CRU London.

Farming the price drop

The fall in potash prices has improved affordability of some grains and oilseeds, fertilizer consultant Delphine Leconte-Demarsy from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization said.

“In the US, potash remains more expensive than it was before the price hike, but this is compensated by comparatively higher crop prices,” Leconte-Demarsy said.

But she added local farmers were affected differently depending on logistical costs and exchange rates.

“In China, while potash is currently more affordable than before the price hike for wheat and maize, depressed rice markets curb potash use for this crop,” she said.

In Brazil, a major exporter of agricultural products, potash prices are back to 2019 levels, boosting its use for more highly priced crops such as soybeans and maize.

Farmers will continue to reap the benefits as the tight market is expected to keep potash prices below historical averages, Rabobank’s Joules said.

($1 = 0.9215 euros)

(By Tristan Veyet, Jesus Calero and Luca Fratangelo; Editing by Milla Nissi, Matt Scuffham and David Evans)

Latin America’s biggest economy holds 5% of the world’s uranium resources and only produces a tiny amount of the nuclear reactor fuel, according to the World Nuclear Association. Brazil’s resources rank eighth globally, well behind Australia, Kazakhstan and Canada. The last assessment of Brazilian reserves took place 40 years ago, but elevated uranium prices are reviving the nation’s ambitions to seek out new deposits.

Nuclear Industries of Brazil — or INB — is seeking to collaborate with global companies to carry out new research in regions known for their mineral potential. The state-owned company plans to call for bids from partners interested in exploring areas in Brazil’s northeast, midwest and south by year end.

“We aim to move forward 40 years in four,” INB President Adauto Seixas said in an interview. “We have already received visits from companies from Russia, India, Korea, France, Australia, the United States and China.”

Brazil’s push comes amid surging interest in uranium, with investors piling into a radioactive metal that underpins a global push to tap carbon-free energy in the form of nuclear power. Uranium prices this year peaked in early February and though they’ve since retreated, levels are still above the historical average.

The Brazilian initiative is called the Uranium and Associated Mineral Resources Prospecting and Mining Partnership Program — or Prouranio. Exploration will be in areas that hold other minerals including copper, gold and rare earth elements that occur alongside uranium. INB’s strategy includes mining already mapped areas with help from private firms.

Yet, Brazilian minerals research industry group ABPM argues that a partnership model doesn’t suit the private sector, which would want to operate independently. The group’s head, Luis Mauricio Azevedo, suggests that Brazil should open up uranium exploration and development — a move that could help boost global supplies.

“If we have the reserves we imagine, Brazil could be a storehouse of energy for the world,” he said.

Miners are already approaching INB to collaborate on developing potential uranium from its rare earth deposits. Australia’s OAR Resources signed a memorandum of understanding in August to determine the potential for some projects. Brazil produces 105 tons a year — enough to cover about a quarter of uranium the country uses to feed two nuclear reactors west of Rio de Janeiro.

Despite Brazil’s desire to go big in uranium, government bureaucracy may be a hurdle. Fertilizer producer Galvani partnered with INB to extract and process phosphate products and uranium concentrate more than a decade ago, yet the company is still waiting for permits to operate a project known as Santa Quiteria.

Galvani expects to get its first environmental license for the mine this year after Brazil’s nuclear regulator approved the location and authorities agreed to analyze the project’s environmental impacts, chief executive officer Marcelo Silvestre said. He said the operation, which could start by 2028, may produce 2,300 tons of uranium a year — enough to turn Brazil into an exporter.

Galvani expects to invest 2.5 billion reais ($438 million) in Santa Quiteria, according to the CEO, who also said the firm would consider bidding in future INB auctions.

INB is also seeking partners for production in the southeast mining area of Gandarela as well as northeast Brazil’s Lagoa Real, which would involve expanding its Caetite mine and concentration plant — the country’s only operational facility. INB plans to raise 66.7 billion reais through production partnerships over three decades.

(By Mariana Durao)

Explorers and developers often overstate the certainty of mineral resource classifications based on inadequate data, Desharnais said at an event in Vancouver on Wednesday. The practice has in some instances led to unexpected analyst downgrades, soaring costs and debt, and the derailment of promising assets.

“That classification debt, unfortunately, needs to get paid,” he told about 430 conference participants from 21 countries at CIM’s first Mineral Resources & Mineral Reserves conference. “The CEO may be walking around with a 3-million-oz. resource estimate, but they haven’t earned that classification with sufficient drilling. When the debt comes due, it’s often through painful reclassifications and revisions.”

Decade of missteps

Several recent projects have demonstrated the high cost of classification debt.

Rubicon Resources’ catastrophic 91% downgrade in resource estimates in 2015 stands as one of the most glaring examples. After it began initial production at the F2 gold deposit on its Phoenix property in Ontario’s Red Lake district, the company found the deposit to be uneconomic, shuttering the operation. It had not completed a feasibility study for the high-grade project.

The size of the downgrade blindsided investors and stakeholders, and the company had to undergo a painful restructuring to survive. Rebranded as Battle North Gold, Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) bought it and its renamed Bateman project in 2021 for $343 million.

In 2018, Pretium Resources promoted the Brucejack gold project in northwestern British Columbia’s Golden Triangle, now owned by Newmont (NYSE: NEM, TSX: NGT, ASX: NEM, PNGX: NEM), as a high-grade gold deposit. Yet, the asset disappointed when gold production grades fell far below expectations.

The nuggety nature of the gold, with Brucejack’s steeply dipping quartz veins and erratic grade distribution, made it difficult to consistently meet production targets, forcing the company to push tonnage through the mill to compensate for lower-than-expected grades.

Aurora (2018), Rainy River (2019), and Gold Bar (2020) show how resource overestimation hurt Guyana Goldfields, New Gold (TSX: NGD; NYSE: NGD) and McEwen Mining (TSX: MUX; NYSE: MUX). They had to downgrade estimates mid-operation. This triggered mine plan revisions, soaring costs, production delays, and financial strain.

Grade versus geometric risk

Desharnais identifies two types of risk that contribute to resource misclassification: grade risk and geometric risk.

Grade risk reflects patchiness in ore quality, while geometric risk involves uncertainty about the size and shape of mineralized domains within the deposit.

Conditional simulations help assess grade risk, Desharnais said, but tools to quantify geometric risk are lacking.

Companies often overestimate deposit geometry without tighter drilling, leading to costly misjudgments.

“Sparse drilling gives us a simpler picture than reality,” he explained, adding that only closely spaced drilling can reveal the true complexity of orebodies.

Best practices

Mathieu Doucette, a senior geologist at ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT), talked about the difficulty of classifying resources at Canada’s largest iron mine, the Mont-Wright iron ore mine in Quebec, producing continuously since 1974. Outdated data can affect current resource estimates. He illustrated how mixing in fresh drill holes helps manage geological risk as part of a dynamic model essential to avoid misclassification.

“The first thing [a QP] will do is akin to lighting a torch,” he said. “But everything on the edges is dark, and you can’t really see it. Drill holes are our ability to try and get some information, but sparse data hides the full picture.”

David Machuca-Mory, a principal consultant at SRK Consulting, said fixed models are risky. Deposits can be more unpredictable than they seem. Adaptive methods help ensure estimates reflect reality, reducing the chance of costly surprises.

“Even with dense drilling, some areas remain highly uncertain,” Machuca-Mory said. “Confidence intervals are large, and relying solely on drill spacing doesn’t always guarantee accurate classification.”

Cognitive biases

Desharnais said that misclassification is not just a technical problem; human psychology plays a significant role.

Anchoring bias makes companies stick with initial estimates despite new data. Authority bias pressures geologists and consultants to confirm favourable results to please management or investors.

“The consulting firm wants the next contract,” Desharnais said. “The CEO has family and friends invested and needs good news. These biases create a system where classification debt builds up across projects, only to be paid through painful revisions later.”

Owning up

Desharnais argued for more conservative resource models and said benchmarking against operating mines would help set realistic expectations. He suggested that technical reports include histograms that show the distance between drill holes and classified resources, he added.

“It forces the QP or CP to look at what they’ve done and ask: Does this make sense?” he said. “Transparent reporting would help prevent overly aggressive classifications, ensuring companies earn their resource classifications with sufficient data.”

Such measures may slow development, but they could also reduce the prevalence of misclassified resources in the industry. Desharnais urged geologists to scrutinize each block of material above the cut-off grade.

“Over-promising today only delays the inevitable correction tomorrow,” he said.

“This is like the early days in Chile, the Escondida discoveries and so on,” he said at the Gold Forum Americas in Colorado Springs, referring to Pakistan’s untapped discovery potential.

Bristow said supply constraints for gold and copper and the strong demand are pushing prices higher, while both suffer from weak development pipelines. The company is expanding its Lumwana copper mine in Zambia and Reko Diq in Pakistan, both of which will add to its copper output while driving local economic development.

“Copper has no substitutes,” Bristow said. “It is as strategic as gold is precious, and we’re bringing new copper projects online just as the supply squeeze hits.”

Bristow also addressed the suspension of operations at Barrick’s Porgera gold mine in Papua New Guinea last month due to local clan violence. He reinforced the company’s commitment to making a positive social and environmental impact, especially in emerging markets.

Watch the final part of Bristow’s three-part interview with The Northern Miner’s western editor, Henry Lazenby.

(By Felix Light; Editing by Louise Heavens)

“The transaction value, cumulative with the previously concluded transactions with CNUC and CNNC Overseas, comprises fifty percent or more of the total book value of the company’s assets,” it said in a statement.

Kazatomprom didn’t provide details on the volume of the deal, which will require shareholders’ approval at a Nov. 15 meeting.

(By Olzhas Auyezov; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

The offering comprises $500 million in four-year notes at 6.70% yield and $500 million in seven-year notes at 6.95%. Ahead of the offering, the company obtained its first-ever credit ratings, with a credit profile confirmed at a level above sovereign: BB+ by S&P and BB by Fitch.

NMMC is currently Uzbekistan’s biggest industrial enterprise and one of the world’s leading gold producers. Last year, its gold production reached 2.9 million ounces, making it the fourth largest globally.

The bond offering, said NMMC, marks a landmark achievement for both the company and the wider region. It represents the largest orderbook for an issuer from Uzbekistan since the sovereign debut in 2019, peaking at $5.5 billion (over 5.5x oversubscribed), as well as one of the largest corporate Notes deal from the CIS since July 2020.

NMMC said it will use to funds to support its investment programs, as well as to repay existing debt and cover operational expenses. The bond offering will also allow the company to refinance existing debt at more attractive rates and longer tenors, it added.

“Our debut notes offering marks the beginning of what we anticipate will be a long and fruitful relationship with the global investor community. This milestone is not only significant for our company but also for the Republic of Uzbekistan, where NMMC is a lynchpin of the local economy,” NMMC’s first deputy CEO and chief transformation officer Eugene Antonov said in a news release.

The note offering follows an earlier investment of $150 million from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), Japan’s largest bank, to support the company’s expansion plans at its mine operations.

The company currently owns a dozen gold mining operations across the Navoi and Samarkand regions of Uzbekistan. The most well-known is the Muruntau open pit mine southwest of the Kyzylkum desert, which was originally developed during the Soviet era as a source of uranium but has since evolved into a large gold mine complex. NMMC says Muruntau is now recognized by geologists as the largest in terms of gold reserve with an estimated 4,500 tonnes of gold.

Combined with its other deposits, NMMC’s total mineral resource base is estimated at 148 million oz. of gold.

France’s Orano SA is boosting uranium mining and processing capacity as supplies of the nuclear fuel tighten on stronger demand and moves to reduce the world’s reliance on Russia.

The state-controlled company is investing to prolong the life of mines in Canada and Kazakhstan, while exploring adjacent and remoter areas in those countries, chief executive officer Nicolas Maes told reporters Thursday. Orano is also developing new projects in Mongolia and Uzbekistan, while remaining “in monitoring mode” for potential acquisitions, he said.

“We have interest in diversifying our projects as there are some tensions in the East and in Africa,” Maes said at the company’s uranium enrichment plant in central France. “Questions over where uranium will come from in the next decade are pulling prices higher.”

Uranium has soared over the past three years as investors piled into the commodity and governments from China to Europe plan more nuclear power plants, partly to curb carbon emissions. At the same time, production issues in Kazakhstan and a military coup in Niger have impacted uranium output.

In Niger, where the military junta revoked one of Orano’s mining permits earlier this year, the company’s other uranium mine will produce just 40% of its capacity this year, Maes said. That production can’t be exported out of the landlocked African nation due to persisting geopolitical issues, he added.

The cost of enriching uranium — a key step to transform the radioactive metal into fuel — has also jumped since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as some western utilities seek to replace Kremlin-controlled Rosatom for their processing requirements.

To help fill that gap, Orano broke ground on the expansion of its French enrichment facility this year. It expects to boost its global market share of enrichment services to 16% from 12%, when the project is completed by the end of the decade, the CEO said.

Rosatom is the world’s largest enricher of uranium, with 43% of total production capacity, according to Orano. That’s followed by Urenco Ltd., a UK-Dutch-German group with a 31% share, and China National Nuclear Corp. with 13%.

Earlier this year, President Joe Biden signed a ban on imports of enriched uranium from Russia, which provides about a quarter of the reactor fuel in the US. The country has just one commercial enrichment facility in New Mexico, owned by Urenco.

Orano may seek to further displace Russian supplies by building an enrichment plant in the US if it secures Federal government support, regulatory approval, and enough customer commitments, Maes said. The multi-billion-dollar facility could be built in Tennessee, Orano has said.

(By Francois de Beaupuy)

Read More: Orano sees progress developing uranium mine in Mongolia

The share of aluminum of Indian origin rose to 32% from 31%, the data showed.

On-warrant aluminum stocks in LME-registered warehouses of all origins rose by 13% in September, the first gain after three months of decline.

Stocks jumped in May followed a decision by the LME to ban all Russian aluminum, copper and nickel produced from April 13 from its system to comply with US and British sanctions imposed over Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Russian aluminum stocks on LME warrant – a title document conferring ownership – ended September at 258,525 metric tons, the data showed.

For copper, the largest share of inventories in September was from China at 57%, while Russian material accounted for 17% of the total.

(By Eric Onstad; Editing by David Evans)

The number and repurchase price of the shares have not been determined yet and the repurchase may or may not proceed, Rusal said in a filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

($1 = 96.7455 roubles)

(By Himanshi Akhand; Editing by Alan Barona)

A bid of 3.94 billion hryvnia ($96 million) for UMCC-Titanium was approved, the State Property Fund said Wednesday in a website statement. Cemin Ukraine, a Neqsol Holding unit, was the only participant in the auction.

Even before the start of the war in February 2022, the government in Kyiv struggled to sell assets due to a poor investment climate marred by corruption. Now with military spending boosted to help fight Russian advances in the east, the Finance Ministry has become increasingly reliant on foreign aid and the domestic bond market to address a budget gap of around 20% of economic output this year.

“The budget will receive a significant resource for strengthening our defense capability,” Ivanna Smachylo, acting head of the property fund, said in the statement. Following the sale of a hotel in Kyiv last month, more privatizations are planned.

UMCC is one of the world’s largest producers of titanium, mining and processing ores into sands and concentrates. More than 90% of titanium ore it manufactures is used in paints, while it also supplies to industries like glass, ceramics and refractory.

The successful bidder at auction is obligated to maintain the enterprise’s core operations, invest at least 400 million hryvnia in technical conversion and modernization, as well as to pay wage arrears and debts to the budget, the property fund said.

Neqsol Holding is an international group of companies founded by Azeri businessman Nasib Hasanov and active in the energy, telecommunications, construction and high-tech industries, according to its website. The company owns Ukraine’s second-largest mobile operator, Vodafone Ukraine.

The holding plans not only to fulfill all privatization commitments, but also to modernize, develop new products through deep processing of raw materials and expand into global markets, Volodymyr Lavrenchuk, the company’s regional director, told Forbes Ukraine before the auction winner was announced.

Lavrenchuk didn’t respond to a Bloomberg request for comment on Wednesday, while calls to the company’s headquarters in Amsterdam went unanswered.

(By Volodymyr Verbianyi)

Under Bristow’s leadership, Barrick has prioritized growth investments with shareholder returns and loan retirements, distributing $5 billion and cutting debt by $3.5 billion.

“We’ve invested over $9 billion in our business and created real value for shareholders,” Bristow said last month during the Gold Forum Americas in Colorado Springs.

Barrick continues growing its copper exposure. Bristow says the company’s Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is a bright spot in its growth pipeline. The company aims to grow copper output in the long term, planning to lift its Lumwana mine in Zambia into the top 25 global copper producers.

Watch below the first part (of three) of the interview with The Northern Miner’s western editor, Henry Lazenby.

ENRC sued the SFO, the agency’s former case controller for the ENRC probe and a former employee over alleged leaks during a decade-long criminal investigation into alleged bribery by the former FTSE 100 company. The SFO had denied the claims.

The SFO confirmed on Tuesday that the lawsuit at London’s High Court had been settled, saying: “Throughout this case we robustly defended the claims. A confidential settlement has now been agreed.”

An ENRC spokesperson said: “ENRC is pleased to report that a confidential settlement has been reached on the terms set out in the consent order.”

Confidential settlements are common in such cases.

Campaign group Spotlight on Corruption said the fact the settlement was confidential was “deeply troubling given the public interest in scrutinizing one of the SFO’s longest-running and most controversial cases”.

ENRC’s case against the SFO over alleged leaks was just one of several pieces of litigation arising out of the SFO’s investigation.

The SFO last year dropped without charges the probe it began in 2013 into alleged bribery by ENRC to secure mining contracts in the Democratic Republic of Congo between 2009 and 2012.

ENRC separately sued the SFO and its former lawyers, which led to the High Court ruling in December that ENRC was entitled to millions of pounds in damages.

The High Court found the SFO would not have launched the probe if the agency had not first induced ENRC’s former lawyer to act against its interests. The SFO has also been refused permission to appeal against that ruling.

ENRC had provisionally suggested it was seeking nearly $1 billion for losses it said were caused by the probe, which will be the subject of another trial, in 2025 or early 2026.

The company said in court filings made public last month that it had “taken a conservative approach” and was seeking approximately $300 million. The SFO is fighting that case.

A spokesperson for ENRC’s former lawyers Dechert said: “The firm was not a party to the claim and it would be inappropriate to comment.”

(By Sam Tobin; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

Kazakhstan’s central election commission said on Monday that 71% of voters cast their ballots in favor of the government plan to build a new reactor. Turnout was about 64%, well above the threshold necessary for the result to be valid, the commission said, citing preliminary calculations.

Central Asia’s largest oil producer hasn’t used nuclear generation since 1999. The country has been grappling with a power shortage partly due to growth in the energy-intensive crypto industry and emergency shutdowns at old plants. The nation is seeking to significantly expand power generation by 2035, with nuclear sources as part of the mix, according to the Energy Ministry. The ministry said an initial estimate for the cost of the nuclear power plant was about $10 billion-$12 billion.

Kazakhstan’s backing for atomic energy underscores rising global interest in stable, round-the-clock nuclear power as countries attempt to meet rapidly rising energy demands while also reducing dependence on fossil fuels to slash emissions.

China National Nuclear Corp, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co., Russia’s Rosatom Corp and Electricite de France SA were on a list of possible builders, according to a presentation from the Energy Ministry.

“My personal opinion is that an international consortium, consisting of global companies with the most advanced technologies, should work in Kazakhstan,” President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said after he cast his vote on Sunday, according to his press office.

The nation had a 1.5 gigawatt power deficit last fall and winter, according to the Energy Ministry. Kazakhstan covers the shortfall by buying electricity from Russia.

(By Nariman Gizitdinov)

Rusal, the world’s largest aluminum producer outside China, launched the first production line at Boguchansky in 2019, investing $1.6 billion. The total project cost to reach full capacity was initially estimated at $2.6 billion.

The plant is jointly owned with the state-controlled power generating company Rushydro.

The local government’s statement quoted Rusal vice president, Elena Bezdenezhnykh, as saying that construction work at Boguchansky will start in 2025.

A Rusal representative confirmed the plans, saying that the financial model and investment volumes would be recalculated by the end of 2024.

Rusal, which accounts for 5.5% of global aluminum output, operates 11 smelters with a combined capacity of 4.6 million tons.

Regarding another new smelter – Taishet – Rusal’s representative said the company had not yet determined its expansion plans. The first line of the smelter, with a capacity of approximately 430,000 tons, was commissioned in 2021.

Rusal expects a global aluminum surplus of around 500,000 metric tons in 2024 and between 200,000 and 300,000 tons in 2025.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova, Gleb Bryanski and Maxim Rodionov; Editing by Louise Heavens and Alison Williams)

Russian diamond giant Alrosa holds a 41% stake in Angola’s Catoca operation, which also owns just over half of the Luele mine. The southern African nation’s Endiama Mining SA owns a majority of both the mines and has made management changes to shore up its control, according to chief executive officer José Ganga Júnior.

“The diamonds we have in Angola are ours,” Ganga Júnior said in an interview in the country’s capital Luanda.

However, Angola “occasionally encounters difficulties” with clients in certain markets because of Alrosa’s stake in the mines, the CEO said. Ganga Júnior declined to say whether Angola was under pressure to oust Alrosa from Catoca. “Alrosa has no interference in Angola’s operations,” he said.

Group of Seven nations agreed to ban Russian diamond imports from the start of this year to curb the Kremlin’s ability to fund its invasion of Ukraine. The ban initially covered all imports of rough diamonds directly from Russia, but was extended from March to include stones processed in third countries. Alrosa is also sanctioned by the US and European Union.

To comply with G-7 sanctions, Endiama must set up a system to track and identify the diamonds that originate in its mines, Ganga Júnior said.

A diamond’s origin is clear at the start of the supply chain when it is issued a certificate under the Kimberley Process, which was designed to end the sale of so-called blood diamonds that financed wars. But after that, the stones can become difficult to track.

Alrosa helped establish both the Catoca and Luele mines, and still receives revenue from both operations. However, those funds are held in Angola and can’t currently be repatriated to Russia.

Russia said earlier this year that Alrosa may sell its Angolan interests as its partners believe the investment is preventing Catoca’s development, according to Interfax.

In May, Angola’s Minerals and Petroleum Minister Diamantino Azevedo said the country’s long-time partnership with Alrosa had become “toxic.”

Russia’s state-controlled Alrosa vies with Anglo American Plc’s De Beers as the world’s biggest diamond producer.

(By Candido Mendes)

In August, global central banks bought only 8 tonnes, compared to the 12-month average of 33 tonnes (t), according to WGC’s latest report. The August figure also represents the lowest net purchase since March, when banks reported a net sale of 2t.

The WGC notes that only four central banks added gold (of a tonne or more) to their reserves during the month of August. Poland led the way with 6t, continuing its net purchase trajectory over the past five months.

The central banks of Turkey, India and Czech Republic also continued to accumulate gold, each adding 3t, 3t and 2t.  On a year-to-date basis, Turkey remains the largest net purchaser at 52t, followed by India in second place at 45t.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan reduced its gold reserves for a fourth straight months and is now a net seller year-to-date. After shedding 5t in August, its gold holdings now stand at 290t, or about 55% of total reserves.

“While gold’s price performance is not a top strategic driver for central banks purchase, its consistent upward trend could have influenced the deceleration,” WGC’s senior research lead, APAC, Marissa Salim said.

“However, it is worth noting that sales have not increased, which may signal a likely wait and see approach rather than a change in trend. Specially, since all other key drivers of central bank decision making, such as the need for effective diversifiers and gold’s performance in time of risk remain in place.

“In all, our expectation remains positive for the rest of the year but, as we previously discussed, will likely be below last year’s total,” she said.

The move is the latest step in a generational transition at the company, as senior roles pass to a new generation of the families of the trio of oligarchs who founded the group and oversaw its London listing as Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. two decades ago.

Ibragimov, who was also appointed chairman earlier this year, is the son of co-founder Alijan Ibragimov, who died in 2021. The two other co-founders, Alexander Mashkevich and Patokh Chodiev, stepped down from the board this year, replaced by younger family members.

Since being appointed CEO in 2014, Sobotka has steered the group through a long-running battle with the UK Serious Fraud Office over an investigation into suspected corruption, which was eventually dropped without charges last year. He’s also overseen the development of a major new project in the Democratic Republic of Congo and restructuring of the company’s debt with Russian banks.

In a statement, ERG said Shukhrat Ibragimov brought “broad expertise from extensive top-level roles” to the CEO position. He has been working at ERG for a decade “starting from shop floor,” it said.

(By Jack Farchy)

Russia’s Rusal, responsible for 5.5% of global aluminum supply, has been increasing deliveries to China – to compensate for lower sales in Western markets, where demand has taken a hit from sanctions imposed on Moscow over war in Ukraine.

Chinese aluminum demand growth may slow in 2025, but its primary market remains in structural deficit, while the market outside China is oversupplied, Rusal said in written responses to Reuters‘ questions ahead of LME Week, a global industry gathering in London, which started on Monday.

Rusal expects a global aluminum surplus of around 500,000 metric tons in 2024 and between 200,000-300,000 tons in 2025.

Global primary aluminum production stood at 48.2 million tons in January-August 2024, up 3.2% year on year, International Aluminium Institute data shows.

China is now Rusal’s largest export market.

The LME banned deliveries of newly-made Russian aluminum, copper and nickel to the LME-registered warehouses from April to comply with US and British sanctions.

Signalling toughening conditions, Rusal’s first-half revenue fell 4% to $5.7 billion as sales slid 3% to 1.9 million metric tons while the premium it charges over the LME price eased.

Rusal said however, it “continues to witness a broad acceptance of its low carbon aluminum from a variety of end users and across its global customer base.”

Talks about 2025 sales – which coincide with LME Week – “are ongoing and consistent with typical negotiations cycle,” Rusal said. It did not provide further details.

As the majority of global producers are profitable at current prices for the metal, used in the construction, transportation and packaging sectors, production is rising with new capacity ramp-ups in Indonesia and Russia along with resumed capacity in Latin America, Rusal said.

Higher output is largely offset by higher end-use demand, which Rusal expects to rise by 2.5–2.7% in 2024 and by 3.5% in 2025.

Three-month LME aluminum touched $2,659, the highest since June 6, last week. The metal is up 10% so far this year.

(By Polina Devitt; Editing by David Evans)

Mali’s mines ministry said in July it had signed a memorandum of understanding with Uranium One Group, a subsidiary of Russian state nuclear firm Rosatom, to develop a lithium project in the southern area of Bougoula.

“We have given all the legal documents, the feasibility tool is underway. And I think that within 24 months the unit will be able to start the first lithium production in Mali,” Sanou said on state television broadcaster ORTM on Thursday.

The two parties also discussed the development of a 200 megawatt (MW) solar plant in Sanankoroba, 30 km from Mali’s capital Bamako. The plant will be built by Rosatom subsidiary Novawind.

“All the legal documents have been drawn up … Construction of the plant will begin within five months,” Sanou said.

(By Anait Miridzhanian; Editing by Alex Richardson and Paul Simao)

The MRE was completed by Mining Plus UK, confirming a total resource of approximately 900,000 tonnes of copper hosted in 285 million tonnes with average grades of 0.32% copper. This total in-situ mineral resource includes 86.9 million tonnes containing 304,300 tonnes of copper in the indicated category.

The resource estimate, the first for the deposit, was based on 113 third-party drill holes for a total of 25,620 metres, the company said.

To upgrade the resource estimate, Anglo Asian is planning an infill and extensional drill program analyzing 26 core legacy holes drilled by AzerGold, which have not been assayed. Further exploration is also planned to assess the extent of mineralization at the Garadag deposit.

“We are pleased to announce that this independent mineral resource estimate confirms the large amount of copper and significant potential of the Garadag deposit,” Anglo Asian vice-president Stephen Westhead said in a news release.

Westhead added that the copper contribution from Garadag will be significant in the delivery of Anglo Asian’s strategic growth plan to become a multi-asset, mid-tier primarily copper producer.

Anglo Asian has been expanding its copper footprint in Azerbaijan since 2021, when it was awarded three new copper concessions in the country. Two of the new concessions border the company’s existing Gedabek and Gosha contract areas and contain the large-scale Garadag porphyry deposit and the adjacent Xarxar copper deposit.

As part of the deal, Anglo Asian will relinquish its rights to the open pit Soyudlu gold mine, located on the border between Azerbaijan’s Kelbajar district and Armenia.

Anglo Asian’s stock closed the day’s trading in London up 3.5%. The company has a £102.82 million ($138 million) market capitalization.

Russian president Vladimir Putin’s suggestion that Moscow should cap exports of titanium in retaliation for Western sanctions won’t force Apple to revert to stainless steel casing as its main supplier is China.

European policymakers, however, should be worried.

The bloc’s aerospace sector is still dependent on imports of Russian titanium produced by VSMPO-AVISMA, the world’s largest integrated producer.

Europe has banned or restricted imports of other Russian metals but not titanium.

When Canada imposed sanctions on VSMPO-AVISMA in February, French President Emmanuel Macron intervened personally to persuade Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to grant Airbus and other aerospace firms waivers. He did.

Europe’s problem is that even if it can extricate itself from the arms of its Russian supplier, it risks swapping one dependency for another.

The right stuff

Airplane makers such as Airbus and Boeing value titanium for exactly the same reason Apple has chosen it for both the 15 and 16 Pro series iPhones.

It is lightweight, incredibly strong, has a high melting point and is corrosion resistant.

Titanium in alloy form has become one of the major manufacturing inputs for the aerospace sector, used in engines, landing gear and fuselage.

The purity standards for such applications must be very high.

Titanium ore is abundant in the form of rutile and ilmenite but very little is of sufficiently high quality to make it suitable for processing into aviation-grade sponge – an intermediate product in the metal’s processing chain – and then aerospace alloy.

That’s why titanium metal is considered a critical raw material, while titanium ore is not.

Moreover, supply of aerospace-grade titanium is further limited because providers must have their product accredited by airplane makers.

Even a paperwork issue can create serious ripples in the supply chain. Boeing is asking suppliers for a 10-year paper trail of their titanium purchases after discovering that some parts may have come with falsified documentation.

The number of titanium sponge producers that can meet these high standards is limited to a handful of Japanese and Kazakh companies. And, of course, VSMPO-AVISMA.

Indeed, the Russian company, which is unique in processing ore all the way through to alloy, is thought to have supplied up to a third of the global aviation sector prior to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Europe’s dependency

Europe was the top destination for Russian exports of titanium products in 2019, accounting for 45% of total export value, according to a European Commission briefing note.

In turn, Russian metal, mostly in the form of wrought alloy products for the aviation sector, accounted for 16% of European Union imports that year, the Commission added.

The European supply chain has been trying to wean itself off Russian titanium but the reaction to Canadian sanctions is proof that the dependency is still there.

Europe’s problem is that it has no domestic titanium sponge production, limited ingot capacity and virtually no recycling facilities.

Even though Ukraine could be a potential future supplier of sponge, Europe doesn’t have any way to process it all.

The United States has also been almost wholly dependent on sponge imports since the 2020 closure of TIMET Corp’s Henderson plant in Nevada.

But it boasts a dominant position in the mid-value part of the aerospace titanium chain, mixing imports of Japanese sponge with domestic scrap to produce ingots and transform them into wrought products, according to a July research paper published by think tank Chatham House.

Indeed, US processing capacity is expanding with the arrival of new players such as IperionX, which is aiming to ramp up output at its new titanium recycling plant in Virginia to 10,000 metric tons per year.

Breaking the transatlantic loop

The irony for European policymakers is that European scrap is a significant source of US titanium production.

Nearly 70% of Europe’s titanium scrap goes to the United States, according to the research paper’s authors.

Europe’s recycling loop is transatlantic rather than domestic thanks to buy-back agreements which oblige European machine parts manufacturers to return fabrication scrap to their US suppliers.

This, the policy paper argues, locks Europe into “an asymmetric relationship” with US suppliers. That in turn disincentivizes investments in domestic recycling capacity, “in effect deepening the problem of European strategic dependency on both Russia and the United States”.

Does it matter if Europe is dependent on “friend-shoring” for its titanium sector?

Yes. The European Union Critical Raw Materials Act, which came into force in May this year, stipulates that by 2030 domestic extraction should account for 10% of the block’s annual consumption, processing 40% and recycling 25%.

Europe is not even close to any of those targets when it comes to titanium.

While Ukraine’s titanium sponge production could be integrated into the European supply chain, it’s highly uncertain how quickly that could happen.

The better short-term solution is to re-shore scrap processing, the authors of the Chatham House report argue.

This, however, is going to be a difficult balancing act between the interests of European aerospace companies and the leverage of US suppliers in the context of a limited domestic recycling base.

The policy paper calls for government-level talks to renegotiate the current titanium buy-back agreements coupled with a joint agreement on future cooperation, similar to the 2021 deal that ended the long-running dispute between Boeing and Airbus.

But, ultimately, breaking the transatlantic dependency loop is a challenge for the future. Loosening VSMPO-AVISMA’s chokehold on strategically-important titanium products is the more pressing concern.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

The company, a major producer of high-grade nickel, said that the launch “is expected to lay the groundwork for future projects aimed at establishing production facilities in the battery materials sector.”

Nornickel, which reported a 22% fall in first-half profit on Aug. 23 due to weak nickel prices, logistical difficulties, and issues related to cross-border payments, is closely looking at the EV batteries sector.

Nornickel’s Vice President for Innovations, Vitaly Busko, said the move to open an R&D centre also “aligns with Russia’s goals of ensuring a full-cycle battery production for electric transportation.”

Busko told the Russian media at the launch event that the company will decide within one year whether to open a cathode active materials production facility. He said that the company is looking for a possible location for such a facility.

Nornickel’s CEO, Vladimir Potanin, said in April that the company planned to develop a nickel supply chain in the EV batteries sector and create joint ventures with Chinese EV battery producers.

Potanin also named Russia’s nuclear power monopoly, Rosatom, as a potential partner for an EV battery venture in Russia.

The company also said it is looking for ways to integrate in the global EV battery production as a way to weaken the impact of the Western sanctions against Russia on its business.

In July, sources told Reuters that Nornickel is in talks with several Chinese battery companies to build a plant jointly producing nickel material from Russian semi-finished products.

EV batteries are charged and discharged by the flow of lithium ions between the graphite-containing anode and the cathode. Cathodes contain nickel, which delivers high energy density, allowing the vehicle to travel further.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova and Gleb Bryanski; Editing by David Evans)

A meeting between Sudanese mining officials and Russia’s ambassador and representatives of its chamber of commerce in the Red Sea city of Port Sudan touched on ways to expand investment opportunities, Sudan’s minerals ministry said in a statement.

The encounter is the latest sign of Russia’s deepening relations with Sudan’s army, which is battling the rival Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group in a conflict the US estimates may have killed as many as 150,000 people. A Sudanese army official in May suggested his side might get weapons in exchange for letting the Kremlin establish a logistical support center on its coast, although no formal deal has been signed.

Russian-controlled mercenaries from the Wagner Group had previously been accused by the US of delivering surface-to-air missiles to the RSF. Russian support for the RSF was likely to protect the country’s interests in Sudanese gold, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.

US President Joe Biden on Tuesday urged Sudan’s warring sides to halt attacks that are harming civilians, allow unhindered humanitarian access and restart talks to end the conflict.

(By Mohammed Alamin)

The $450 million program, said NMMC, is in line with efforts by the government of Uzbekistan to boost the share of renewable energy to 40% of the country’s total power generation by the year 2030.

NMMC is currently the largest enterprise in the country and the fourth-largest gold producer globally, with nearly 3 million oz. of the metal produced annually.

In the first half of 2024, the NMMC installed photovoltaic panels across 21 major industrial sites with a total capacity of 5,750 kW, enabling the annual generation of up to 9.7m million kWh.

The company is further advancing its renewable energy program through the construction of a 500 MW solar power facility near its operations in the Tomdi district of Navoi region, set to be completed in two phases.

Phase 1, with a capacity of 220 MW and annual power generation of 374 million kWh, is scheduled to be launched in the fourth quarter of this year. Phase 2, with a 280 MW capacity and annual generation of 476 million kWh, will be completed in the fourth quarter of 2025. 

The renewable energy investment program, including the launch of the solar power station, will enable total generation of about 1 billion kWh of per year, or 21.4% of the company’s annual consumption, NMMC estimates.

This year’s progress follows the installation of 1,200 kW of solar panels in 2023, including 1,000 kW at the Navoi Machine-Building Plant, 100 kW at the Kyzylkum mining department and 100 kW at corporate headquarters. These solar arrays can produce a total of 2.465 million kWh per annum.

In addition to power generation, NMMC is harnessing the sun’s energy to heat water, thereby reducing consumption from other energy sources. With the aid of 4,993 solar water heaters, the company can fully supply its hot water needs during the summer months, conserving an estimated 1.7 million cubic meters of natural gas per year.

“NMMC is committed to sustainable development and to doing its part to contribute to the global transition to renewable sources of energy,” Eugeny Antonov, first deputy CEO for transformation at NMMC, said in a news release.

“By investing in renewable energy now, we have an opportunity to lower operating costs over the long term and to reduce pollution, while also ensuring a greener future for our communities.”

This potential combination of Ma’aden’s aluminum business and Alba would create a global powerhouse in aluminum production, the companies said in a news release. They also said the deal would bring together more than 75 years of combined experience with the financial strength and production capacity to compete globally.

As part of the proposed business combination, Ma’aden has agreed to buy shares in Alba in exchange for the entire share capital of two of its subsidiaries – Ma’aden Aluminium and Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina – both part of a joint venture with US aluminum producer Alcoa.

“Harnessing the combined scale and expertise of both businesses to forge a new global champion will not only advance Ma’aden’s ambitions for aluminum but also significantly boost the economic ties between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia,” Ma’aden CEO Bob Wilt said in the statement.

“By bringing together two of the region’s most experienced players in the sector, we are setting the stage for stronger economic growth, enhanced job creation, and increased aluminum production capacity,” Wilt said, adding that the venture would ensure Ma’aden and Alba will provide access to a more expansive and reliable supply of aluminum.”

The companies have also agreed to explore a cross listing on the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul), subject to terms to be agreed at a later stage.

“The potential partnership accelerates Alba’s growth strategy, creating a global champion and cementing our position as the largest regional aluminum producer,” Alba’s chairman HE Khalid Al Rumaihi said.

“This combination will allow both companies to scale-up production, extend our global presence and explore new opportunities in clean energy. Our partnership will not only deepen the strong ties between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, but also contribute to Bahrain’s economic diversification.”

“Uralkali confirms the signing of a contract with India at a price that objectively reflects current market conditions, with a supply volume of 600,000 tons of potassium chloride,” an Uralkali representative said.

The contract was signed earlier this year, according to source with direct knowledge of the matter.

The source said the price for April-September supplies was $279 per ton on a CFR or delivered basis and $285 per ton for October-December. Russia is a major supplier of fertilizers to India.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova, Gleb Bryanski and Nidhi Verma; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

The experts predict gold, which hit an all-time high of $2,554.78 per oz. on Thursday, to be on a long-term bull run. Some of the sector’s most respected voices, including Sprott’s John Hathaway, mining entrepreneur Frank Giustra, gold fund manager Ronald-Peter Stöferle and investor guru Rick Rule, said central bank gold buying, geopolitical tension and a divergence from traditional asset classes are boosting gold’s price.

Hathaway, managing partner of Sprott Asset Management, says less than 1% of most investment portfolios are allocated to gold, showing how the asset is misunderstood. Reallocating just 2-3% to gold could push up prices by $1,000 per oz., he said.

“Positioning in gold is still incredibly low among mainstream investors,” he said during a keynote discussion with Stöferle, managing partner at Liechtenstein-based Incrementum. “Yet, with today’s new record, we are already seeing signs of the market shifting.”

Central banks

Stöferle, who publishes the annual In Gold We Trust report, said central banks have been soaking up as much as 30% of annual global gold production. In the first half of 2023 alone, central banks purchased 483 tonnes of gold — a record, according to Stöferle’s data — since sanctions against Russia began in 2022.

“It’s clear that we’re seeing a de-dollarization trend, with emerging markets increasingly looking to gold as a reserve asset,” Stöferle said.

The fund manager says that while inflation may not be a short-term concern, the longer-term outlook is inflationary.

“We’ve spent the last 30 years globalizing, and now we’re moving in the opposite direction. De-globalization is inherently inflationary,” he said.

Giustra, who helped start Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM, NYSE: WPM; LSE: WPM) and Endeavour Mining (TSX: EDV; LSE: EDV) among other businesses, agreed that fiscal stimulus, such as those in the United States, continue to drive inflation.

Even so, US inflation cooled to 2.5% in August and the Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates this month.

US fiscal crisis

Giustra was particularly vocal about the US fiscal outlook, warning that the country’s ballooning debt and deficits will only worsen in a recession.

“The US is running a $1.9 trillion deficit at full employment. What happens when we enter a recession? The deficit could easily balloon to $4 trillion,” he said during a keynote fireside chat with Alex Deluce, editor of Gold Telegraph.

Giustra suggests mainstream media avoids discussing the genuine issues affecting the US economic outlook and the country’s dire fiscal state because no one wants to address the difficult choices ahead. His point is that the only options left—such as inflating away the debt—are highly favourable for gold.

“When the only escape from a fiscal crisis is devaluation, gold becomes the ultimate hedge.”

While the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, both Giustra and Stöferle urged caution in the short term. Stöferle suggested that the gold prices could fall by $200 per oz. in the coming months as the market digests recent gains.

“I’m not overly bullish in the short term. A breather to $2,300 or $2,350 per oz. wouldn’t be a crash—it would be a healthy consolidation,” Stöferle explained.

Longer term, he said it could reach as high as $4,800 per oz., though not all panelists agreed.

Price vs equities

Despite gold’s price surge, mining equities have dramatically underwhelmed.

Rule pointed out that the GDX, an index of gold mining stocks, is down 40% over the past decade. He attributed this underperformance to poor capital allocation, inflationary pressures, and ill-timed mergers and acquisitions.

“There have been some downright stupid capital decisions, especially around M&A and cost inflation,” Rule said. They have tarnished the industry’s image as “a place where money dies.”

Despite these setbacks, he says gold mining equities are poised for a rebound because energy prices have stabilized and input costs have fallen, boosting the earnings potential for gold miners. Rule forecasts the GDX index to double as investors return to the space in the medium term.

Giustra said institutional investors are, frustratingly, still sitting on the equity sidelines, waiting for a more sustained rally before moving back into the space. Like Hathaway, he underlined that once generalist investors re-enter the market, gold mining equities could see a significant upward move.

“The market is waiting for a catalyst. When that comes, we’ll see a flood of capital into mining stocks,” Giustra said.

Macro shifts

Stöferle said the gold price action has shifted to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations, driven by global de-dollarization efforts.

“The marginal gold buyer is no longer in the West,” Stöferle said. “China, India, and other emerging markets now account for 50% of physical gold demand and 66% of global jewellery demand.”

Hathaway echoed these points, adding that gold is no longer viewed as just a hedge but as an integral part of emerging market strategies to rebalance global trade.

“De-dollarization is happening, albeit slowly,” he said. “We’re seeing more trade settled in local currencies, backed by gold reserves, as a means to avoid reliance on US dollar treasuries.”

The Kazakhstan-based company posted a 73% year-on-year jump in adjusted EBITDA to $346 million for the first half of 2024, driven by higher sales volumes and higher gold prices.

Revenue rose 79% to $704 million and its average realized gold price was up 17%.

Gold prices powered higher on Friday, setting records, on expectations of US interest rate cuts.

“The price of gold is significantly higher this year than last year. Therefore, we expect the year-on-year dynamics in terms of profitability to be significantly positive,” Nesis told Reuters.

“…However, we also note that we expect capital costs to increase significantly year-on-year, and mainly against the backdrop of the start of active implementation of the Ertis POX” project.

“We expect positive FCF for the year”, he added, referring to free cash flow.

The company does not expect comparable results in the second half of 2024, given the impact of de-stockpiling from January to June, which is not likely to be repeated in the near future, it said in a statement.

Solidcore, the second-largest gold miner in Kazakhstan, reaffirmed its forecast to produce 475,000 gold equivalent ounces in 2024.

The company’s Russian business came under US sanctions in 2023 after Moscow sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022. The group sold its Russian assets, which represented about 70% of output and more than 50% of core earnings.

The company plans to double output to 1 million ounces of gold equivalent by 2029 through acquisitions in Central Asia and will halt dividends while pursuing that goal, it said in June.

The company confirmed planned investments of more than $1 billion in 2025-2029 focused on the Ertis POX project.

Doubling production will require significant additional investment in M&A, and the amount will become clear by the end of this year, the CEO said.

Access to Western finance remains difficult due to sanction risks, including those linked to the Moscow exchange listing, but the company is working on raising funds, including via equity, Nesis added.

Last year the company re-domiciled to Kazakhstan from Jersey, de-listed from the London Stock Exchange and listed on the Central Asian nation’s Astana International Exchange.

In June, Solidcore applied to delist from the Moscow Exchange due to US sanctions on the exchange. Delisting is expected to happen on Oct. 15.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

The former Soviet republic promotes itself as a dependable supplier of the majority of critical materials outlined by the European Union, at a time when Russia has threatened to curb exports and China is tightening control over rare earths.

Kazakhstan has signed deals with the European Union and Britain on the supply of critical minerals.

“People know that Kazakhstan is very reliable… We’ve been supplying markets for a very long time,” industry minister Kanat Sharlapaev said in an interview this week.

The Central Asian nation, the world’s ninth-largest by land area but sparsely populated, has deposits of 90% of the elements of the periodic table and is already a significant exporter of ferroalloys, gold and copper.

The country wants to gain market share in battery materials such as lithium, cobalt, manganese, nickel and graphite amid rising demand for the materials, Sharlapaev said.

Kazakhstan already mines manganese, but last year it launched processing of manganese sulphate and aims to eventually capture 10% of the global market for the battery material.

It also supplies phosphates for fertilizers and aims to process material needed for LFP (lithium ferro phosphate) batteries that are growing in popularity, he added.

“Building scalable processing of battery grade metals is something we want to expand,” said Sharlapaev, a former banker with Citigroup.

“We already have production facilities, it’s just a matter of expanding the range of those materials.”

Russian threat

Russian President Vladimir Putin said this week that Moscow should consider limiting exports of uranium, titanium, nickel, and potentially other commodities in retaliation for Western sanctions.

Kazakhstan is a major global supplier of both uranium and titanium. It also holds 2% of world nickel reserves, but has, for now, a negligible share in its global output.

The country has also yet to tap its deposits of lithium, another key metal, but exploration is underway.

To speed up exploration and development, the cabinet streamlined the procedures for exploration licences and moved them online, he said.

This has hiked the number of issued licences so far this year to 487 compared to 397 for all of 2023, according to data from the ministry.

Major mining companies involved in exploration in Kazakhstan include BHP, Rio Tinto, First Quantum Minerals, Fortescue and Teck Resources.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said last month it had bought a stake in a firm exploring for graphite in Kazakhstan.

Although Kazakhstan is a member of Russian-led economic and security blocs, it has maintained neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, promised to abide by Western sanctions against Moscow, and actively participates in the development of cargo transit routes bypassing Russia.

(By Eric Onstad and Olzhas Auyezov; Editing by Philippa Fletcher)

The plant will be the first of its kind in Bolivia, with an initial production of 1,000 tonnes a year, ramping up to 14,000 tonnes of certified battery-grade lithium annually, YLB president Omar Alarcón said during the signing ceremony.

The DLE facility in the world’s largest lithium-bearing salt flat, will be located at an altitude of 3,650 meters, spanning over 10,500 square km. 

The battery metal will be mined by using Russian direct sorptive extraction technology, Rosatom’s subsidiary Uranium One said. Operations at the plant are expected to start in the second half of 2025, it added.

Alarcón noted that DLE technology offers a lithium recovery rate of over 80%, compared to only 12% with traditional evaporation ponds, such as those located in neighbouring Chile.

Another advantage, he said, is that the production process will not depend on weather conditions.

Uranium One, along with Chinese firms CBC and Citic Guoan Group, was selected last year through YLB’s first international tender to establish pilot DLE plants that will later scale up to industrial production.

Earlier this month, YLB announced that it had entered negotiations with CBC and Citic, two bidders shortlisted from a tender launched early this year, to install DLE plants in the Uyuni and Coipasa salt flats.

The tender seeks partners to develop DLE plants in seven of Bolivia’s 28 salt flats and it is part of President Luis Arce’s plans to position Bolivia as a major global lithium supplier.

The goal, he has said, is to export 50,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent annually.

“Bolivia has made a clear and sovereign decision to industrialize its lithium—we are doing it,” Arce said.

Known barriers

The South American landlocked country has a history of unfulfilled lithium dreams. It has tried and failed to develop its industry several times since the 1990s, producing only an accumulated 1,400 tonnes since 2018. 

Political moves and red tape have further hindered the nation’s efforts. To advance the construction of industrial plants in Bolivia, bidding companies must first undertake prior, free, and informed consultation processes, along with comprehensive environmental impact assessments. This requires that they share detailed project information with local communities.

Following the completion of such procedures and the conclusion of contract negotiations between YLB and Chinese firms already involved in the local market, the agreements must be submitted to the legislative assembly for approval.

Analysts estimate that the contracts are unlikely to obtain the green light due to the existing political fragmentation within the assembly and the upcoming general elections in 2025.

While the country and YLB are focusing on DLE as the cornerstone of its industrial strategy, market experts caution that the technology remains underdeveloped for large-scale industrial application.

The state has invested more than $800 million in DLE over the past two-years, but only recently admitted to relatively poor results.

The Bolivian government estimates the nation’s lithium resources at 23 million tonnes, slightly higher than the 21 million tonnes calculated by the U.S. Geological Survey, making it the largest in the world.