The total stock market valuation of the world’s biggest mining companies is up a fairly modest 8% year to end-September and despite the good run is still $240 billion below the peak hit in the second quarter of 2022. And judging by the performance of the top tier in the final quarter (BHP down 8% QTD, Rio Tinto –5%, Vale –3%, Glencore –5%, Newmont –9%, Zijin –5%, Freeport –7%) the gap won’t be closing anytime soon.

In contrast, Nvidia — the maker of chips highly prized for artificial intelligence (AI) computing — is up nearly 200% so far this year (and 2,600% over five). When comparing the graphics card maker’s stock valuation to the mining industry’s collective worth, it’s difficult not to wonder if something is not awry with how global investors appraise the industrial economy.  

Should Nvidia (or Microsoft or Apple for that matter) be worth more than twice the top 50 miners? Outside the top 50 the average market cap quickly shrinks to the low teens so Nvidia is in fact worth more than the entire listed mining industry. 

Even when extending the top 50 into metals and energy –  steel, aluminium and electricity companies often operate their own mines – Nvidia can still throw shade. BHP does not even crack the top 100 most valuable companies in the world and is worth less than Booking.com, and Temu and Zara’s owners, none of which can exactly be called the building blocks of the global economy. 

Nvidia briefly surpassed Apple on Friday to become the world’s most valuable company. Its market capitalization is approximately $3.5 trillion, just below Apple’s, which remains the highest-valued firm globally.

The company said on Monday that its full-year nickel production forecast was now at 196,000-204,000 metric tons, up from 184,000-194,000 tons previously. The new target was still below the 209,000 tons produced in 2023.

The company said it had produced 146,210 tons of nickel in the first nine months of the year as the furnace at its flagship Nadezhda smelter went back into operation after major repairs in August.

As a result, the company reported a 16% quarter-on-quarter increase in nickel output in the third quarter.

Its palladium production guidance was increased to between 2.624 million and 2.728 million ounces, up from 2.296 million to 2.451 million ounces previously. Palladium output was up 1% year on year at 2.156 million ounces in the nine months of 2024.

Nornickel’s operations director Alexander Popov said the company increased nine-month copper and palladium output year on year while platinum and nickel were unchanged.

The “positive dynamics” were attributed to improved operational efficiency and increase mined ore, he said in a statement.

Nornickel is not subject to direct Western sanctions, though sanctions against Moscow have prompted some Western producers to avoid buying Russian metal and complicated payments, leading Nornickel to redirect sales to Asia.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova and Gleb Bryanski; Editing by David Goodman)

The move, Blue Evolution said, creates a combined entity that will leverage enhanced R&D capabilities to drive innovation and commercialize new seaweed-based products across multiple sectors – agriculture, biomaterials – and critical minerals.

In December of last year, the US Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) first announced its selection of scientific teams to explore the feasibility of extracting critical minerals from ocean macroalgae.

In July this year, Blue Evolution announced a groundbreaking advancement in sustainable biomining after it partnered with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Virginia Tech to develop a revolutionary method for sustainably extracting critical minerals and rare earth elements from seaweed.

The company operates seaweed farms in California and Alaska, and this month finalized a joint venture with the Māori Iwi Tribe to scale regenerative seaweed farming in Aotearoa, New Zealand.

From biofuels to rare earths

Blue Evolution CEO Beau Perry has been working with ARPA-E since 2017, first on large-scale systems for cultivation of seaweed for biofuels in Kodiak, Alaska, testing new hardware to grow seaweed in abundance, sustainably and economically.

Alaska is unparalleled in the US in terms of seaweed farming because of its size, environmental conditions and infrastructure. Perry noted both the state and the public are much more receptive to seaweed farming than to mining projects.

“It’s a relatively new industry. In post-war Japan, the coastal seaweed the Japanese had harvested for a long time was kind of destroyed…A British woman had closed the life cycle on nori in the early 50s. Seaweed farming was fairly new as a major agricultural sector, but now we grow, globally, 30 million tons of it,” Perry told MINING.com in an interview.

More than half of it is grown in China, but also Japan, Korea, Philippines and Indonesia.

The United States only entered the market ten years ago, and Perry said the US has grown a couple thousand tons so far.

Of over 10,000 species of seaweed worldwide, 300 species have been commercialized. Blue Evolution is working with six different species – four that they are growing in Alaska. Perry said seaweed has the potential to enter multiple markets because of its sustainability.

“It soaks up a lot more carbon than any terrestrial biomass per area, and it really only needs sunlight and seawater,” he said.

“We were looking [at] how to render biofuels from seaweed. PNNL was doing very in-depth content analyses of different samples of different species from different locations in our farmer network. We worked with different farmers that we’ve helped set up in Alaska, including the first ever commercial farm in Kodiak.”

The team started to find some unusual levels of minerals designated as in the strategic interest of US economic development and national security, but Perry said what got the Department of Energy’s attention was the rare earths.

The discovery is a positive development for a nascent North American rare earths market and taps into the broader issue of the glaring lack of domestic production. China has a near monopoly on mining and refining the group of 17 metals that are crucial to the development of smart electronic devices and wind turbines, and which are notoriously difficult to extract and expensive to process.

“This was sort of a beautiful accident, and it’s all a function of what’s in the water where the seaweed is growing,” Perry said.

“They’re a prolific sponge – they soak up nitrogen, phosphorus, carbon and a lot of minerals, and so in this first pass at the content analysis, we got a certain set of signals around REEs and precious metals, like rhodium, palladium and scandium.”

Each species of seaweed is metabolically prone to take up a certain set of minerals, and Perry noted some are really fascinating.

“We’ve seen sort of peaks and flat lines from different locations around the globe, and now we’re starting to fill in the puzzle of which seaweed could grow where to get what minerals,” he said.

“It’s clear that each one is taking up some combination of precious minerals, REEs and these other strategic minerals.”

The team has preliminary data and is working to understand which species, where, how they are grown, and determining scalable extraction methods.

“There’s kind of this matrix of ‘what am I growing the seaweed for?’ I think critical minerals past a certain scale will always be part of that based on what we’re seeing,” Perry said. “ In certain locations, that might be the primary one if we find a species that really soaks this stuff up. We’re talking parts per million, and even parts per billion as a baseline. It’s perfectly standard in mining.”

Doubling seaweed value

Perry said the company is forging ahead with a “very critical mineral centric expedition” to find if there are places to focus on critical minerals and develop farms that are primarily oriented towards producing them.

“It’s possible that the critical minerals are disruptive to seaweed farming economics generally. They could double the value of the biomass,” he said.

“If I were to grow at a level where … at a significant scale relative to that market, the amount of critical minerals that will be running through our supply chain will be significant. In some cases, maybe fundamentally changing the supply picture for specific critical minerals.”

“There are some tricks that we’re going to explore to really enhance the amount of rare earths per ton of biomass. It’s taking these things up all the time.

There are ways to coax maybe orders of magnitude more than we’re finding by accident, not really trying. We can do things at the genetic level, selecting for strains that are going to bioaccumulate more of a given target critical mineral.”

The goal, Perry said, is to really understand what’s possible from an extraction standpoint.

“There’s a certain amount of critical minerals that are economically recoverable from a site, but around it are a million years of sediment that the seaweed will be sort of steeped in, like a sponge. And that yield should actually increase over time, given that the baseline of those minerals should stay the same pretty much over a long period of time. And we’re going to get better at getting the seaweed to accumulate them and getting them out.”

When you think about a seaweed farm as a mine, it’s unlikely to run out anytime soon,” Perry said. “It will be replenished constantly by the ocean. So that, I think, from a mining perspective is pretty radical – I don’t need to spend $100 million to maybe break ground on a mine in 20 years.”

BHP walked away from a $49 billion bid to acquire Anglo in May after it was rebuffed three times. With a six-month block on another approach set to expire at the end of November, a deal is again under scrutiny.

Anglo was able to convince investors during BHP’s approach that it had a better plan to grow value, focused on shedding underperforming platinum, diamonds and coal to focus on copper, a metal key for the energy transition.

If that succeeds, the higher value that comes with copper assets may help keep Anglo safe, one portfolio manager at a Cape Town fund manager said.

But the longer it takes to achieve a transformation, the more likely it is that investors will be tempted by another bid.

Investors with shares in both companies told Reuters that even though they expect BHP CEO Mike Henry to renew his pursuit for the London-listed miner, the timing and even the rationale for such an approach could be shaped by whether Anglo can grow beyond the grasp of cash-rich rivals.

Anglo CEO Duncan Wanblad is rushing to sell coking coal mines in Australia and nickel assets in Brazil while spinning off platinum mines in South Africa. The company is also weighing whether to sell or separately list its De Beers diamonds unit.

Anglo’s world-class copper assets in Latin America are the prize for rivals seeking increased exposure to copper.

But its copper mines are still dogged by operational issues. On Thursday, it said copper output declined 13% in the third quarter, though the company remains on course to meet this year’s output guidance of 730,000 tons to 790,000 tons.

Anglo declined to comment. BHP did not respond to emailed requests for comment.

Choosing the moment

Anglo’s shares rose as much as 4.3% in London on Monday amid a broad uptick in mining stocks, but have shed most of the premium they added in the wake of BHP’s approach.

If Anglo’s valuation takes time to catch up with its restructuring, it could present a golden opportunity for BHP.

According to a source at a top investor in both companies, a restructured Anglo creates more value for BHP, which is still wary of the risks associated with absorbing South African assets.

“If I was BHP, I would say let Anglo do most of the heavy lifting, the restructuring it promised it will do by end 2025,” the source told Reuters.

Any potential new bid should come when some of the restructuring is expected to completed by June or July next year, they added.

BHP may have to wait until Anglo spins off its platinum business by mid-2025 to make the deal less complex, UBS Group analysts said. “We expect Anglo to re-rate as the group simplifies,” UBS said. “If not, we see potential for another takeover approach.”

Christiaan Bothma, an investment analyst at Johannesburg-based money manager Sanlam Private Wealth, which has shares in both companies, told Reuters it would “make sense” for BHP to wait for Anglo to do the asset separation for them.

But he added: “The counter argument to this would be if they wait (too) long, Anglo’s valuation premium may be too high or iron ore prices too low (BHP’s primary currency).”

(By Felix Njini; Editing by Veronica Brown, Pratima Desai and Jan Harvey)

Anglo said its copper output fell 13% in the July to September quarter, while rough diamond production decreased by 25% on cuts due to prolonged lower demand.

Its De Beers diamonds unit is exploring options for further output cuts in future, Anglo said.

For the first nine months of 2024, copper output fell 4% to 575,000 tons and diamond production was down 21% at 18.9 million carats.

Anglo still expects to produce 730,000-790,000 tons of copper and 23-26 million carats of rough diamonds this year, even as it assesses additional production cuts going forward.

Its shares, which have risen around 18% this year, opened up 2.2%.

The mining giant is restructuring its business to mainly focus on energy transition metal copper after fending off a $49 billion takeover offer from bigger rival BHP Group in May.

Copper will make up 60% of Anglo’s business after it sells its Australian steelmaking coal assets and nickel mines in Brazil, as well as divesting De Beers and its platinum business Amplats in South Africa.

Apart from its copper assets in Chile, Anglo will also retain iron ore mines in South Africa and Brazil, as well as the Woodsmith fertilizer project in the United Kingdom, which it has now slowed down.

Anglo said steelmaking coal’s production fell by 6% in the third quarter after shutting its Grosvenor mine in Queensland due to an underground fire.

The London-listed miner, the world’s third-largest exporter of metallurgical coal, lowered its yearly production guidance to 14-15.5 million tons from a previous forecast of 15-17 million.

Anglo said the final round of bidders for the coal assets was in place and it expected to announce the sale agreement within months.

(By Clara Denina and Felix Njini; Editing by Stephen Coates and Mark Potter)

Sliding prices for several critical minerals this year – in part due to overproduction in China, Russia and elsewhere – have put the traditionally conservative US mining companies in the unusual position of seeking Washington’s help to survive, a reliance that helps link their corporate fates to American government decisions.

US industrial policy has shifted in recent years to more fully embrace tariffs, tax credits and other financial tools that directly inject government dollars into critical sectors, including through the IRA, the CHIPS Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, among others.

“One of the biggest challenges we have in mining in America – setting aside permitting – is that mines here are just not commercially competitive,” said Gracelin Baskaran, director of the critical minerals security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

A fight over government largesse shows how much the stakes have changed for US mines as overseas rivals have expanded market control.

South African miner Sibanye’s Stillwater palladium mine, located roughly 40 miles (64 km) from Montana’s border with Wyoming, last year lost nearly $600 on every ounce it mined, or roughly $269 million, as Russian rivals boosted production at safety standards below what is acceptable in the US Palladium prices fell 40% in 2023.

The mine’s loss, executives said, would have been lessened by a little-known tax credit provision of the IRA known as 45X, which reimburses 10% of production costs. That, they said, could have helped save some of the roughly 800 jobs slated to be cut next month, with the fate of the entire mine uncertain.

The US Treasury Department issued draft rules last year saying the 45X credit does not apply to mining but rather final processing of a mineral.

The draft rule was seen as a strict interpretation of the IRA’s language and meant to appease conservationists and environmental groups, although the United Steelworkers and other labor unions have called for the 45X provision to apply to mining.

While miners lobbied behind the scenes for months, the draft rule appears on track to be finalized in coming days, analysts said. The Treasury Department said it expects to issue final draft rules soon.

Sibanye estimates its costs for labor, electricity and related areas have increased 30% since 2020, part of the reason why it is cutting staff now but did not when prices for palladium – used to make semiconductors, among other goods – were near similar levels in 2018.

“It’s very hard to compete when Russia is selling the exact same product,” said Heather McDowell, a Sibanye executive. “We believe Congress intended for the tax credit to incentivize those of us who produce critical minerals the right way, in this country.”

Other US mining projects have pushed for Washington to support two-tiers of metals pricing, stop negotiations with Indonesia and other minerals-rich countries using controversial mining practices, and forcing government contractors to buy American-produced minerals.

That shift in US industrial policy in a way paradoxically reflects steps that China has already taken, said George Cheveley of Ninety One, a London-based asset manager with investments across the mining sector.

“If you look at the way the US and China are approaching the energy transition, they’re actually doing it the same way,” said Cheveley. “Their view is, ‘We will subsidize the industry to get it up to scale and then we’ll have a profitable, functioning industry with the latest technology.'”

Election ramifications

The 45X issue has now worked its way into control of the US Senate. Montana Senator Jon Tester, a Democrat facing a tough re-election race next month, said little about 45X when the draft rules were issued, but in the wake of Sibanye’s layoffs, has gone public with calls for the credit to cover mining and has lobbied Treasury officials.

Mining is the highest-paying industry in Montana, with an average annual wage of $98,000, 81% higher than the state’s average.

Tester has called the layoffs “unacceptable,” blamed Russia and asked the Treasury Department to expand the 45X credit to mining.

“This mine is a big deal for local economies and our national security,” Tester, a farmer by profession, said in an emailed statement to Reuters.

Tester’s Republican opponent, businessman Tim Sheehy, has blamed what he sees as Democrats’ “job-killing, climate cult agenda” for the job losses in recent public statements. Sheehy’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Polls show Tester trailing Sheehy, although the race remains tight and the winner could help determine control of the Senate given close races elsewhere in the country.

(By Ernest Scheyder; Editing by Veronica and Marguerita Choy)

Bullion hit an all-time high of $2,748.36 an ounce, topping Monday’s record. Traders have flocked to the market amid a tight US presidential vote and persistent concern that violence in the Middle East may escalate into a wider war. The sentiment spilled over to the silver market, with prices of the white metal climbing for its sixth-straight session to within striking distance of $35 an ounce.

Robust central-bank buying and expectations of US interest-rate cuts have also underpinned gold’s 33% run this year. Federal Reserve officials continue to opine on the path forward, with Jeffrey Schmid favoring a slower pace of rate reductions and Mary Daly forecasting more cuts.

“Haven demand amid heightened geopolitical risks, as well as uncertainty ahead of the US election in November, have also supported gold’s record-breaking rally,” ING Bank NV wrote in a note.

While the outcome of the US election remains uncertain, Saxo Bank A/S Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen suggests gold and silver are getting caught up in bets of a Republican victory.

Meanwhile, money managers have increased net-long positions in gold, while investors have added to holdings in exchange-traded funds. Citigroup Inc. analysts boosted their three-month price forecast by 3.7% to $2,800 an ounce amid expectations that further labor-market deterioration will drive demand.

Spot gold rose 1% to $2,746.41 an ounce at 2:01 p.m. in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed. Palladium, platinum and silver all gained.

(By Jack Wittels and Yvonne Yue Li)

Graphic: Gold’s allure spreads as bulls lock in on fresh records

Yet prices for all three EV battery inputs have fallen to such bombed-out levels that producers are curtailing output and deferring new projects.

This is partly a problem of oversupply. Explosive price rallies in 2021 and 2022 resulted in too much new production capacity being brought online too quickly.

But it is also a problem of demand.

The transition away from the internal combustion engine has by no means ground to a halt. Global new energy vehicle sales were up by 20% year-on-year in January-August, according to consultancy Rho Motion.

Rather, the mix of vehicles being sold and the evolution of battery chemistry have dramatically changed the metals demand dynamic.

The rise of the hybrids

Pure battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales have underperformed expectations due to buyers’ concerns about limited driving range and charging infrastructure.

By contrast, hybrid and plug-in hybrid cars, which have both a battery and internal combustion engine, have soared in popularity.

The increase in global sales of BEVs slowed to 10% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2024, while plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales jumped 46%, according to Rho Motion.

This trend has been led by China, the world’s largest EV market. The key driver is the emergence of the extended range electric vehicle (EREV), a type of PHEV that uses the gasoline engine solely to charge the battery, giving the vehicle an extended driving range of more than 1,000 kilometres (621 miles).

EREVs now account for 31% of all plug-in hybrid sales in China, according to research house Adamas Intelligence, which expects them to enjoy similar success in both Europe and the United States.

Major automakers are embracing hybrids in all forms as a relatively low-cost transition technology between gasoline and pure electric vehicles.

Hybrids don’t need the same battery power as a BEV. Adamas calculates that battery pack capacity in a PHEV is a third of that in a BEV, which means a similar-sized reduction in the amount of lithium, nickel and cobalt used per vehicle.

Other metals, however, stand to benefit from the rise of the hybrids. Platinum and palladium, which are used to clean auto exhausts, have been granted an unexpected new lease of life.

Changing chemistry

While the new energy vehicle mix is changing, so too is battery chemistry.

Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries (LFP) have become the rising stars of the battery industry, accounting for around 40% of battery demand in 2023, more than double the share recorded in 2020, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

As with the new extended range hybrids, the LFP revolution is being led by China, where two-thirds of EV sales used this technology in 2023, the IEA estimates.

Chinese battery makers have turned what was once regarded as a low-power technology suitable only for short city commutes into a product that can compete with nickel-manganese-cobalt battery chemistries.

China’s CATL unveiled a new break-through LFP battery at the Beijing auto show in April. The Shenxing Plus boasts a driving range of 1,000 kilometres on a single charge, effectively eliminating range anxiety.

The only critical metal input for an LFP battery is lithium. It doesn’t require either nickel or cobalt, which makes an LFP battery both cheaper and more environmentally friendly than other chemistries.

The market has taken note. Demand forecasts for nickel and cobalt use in batteries have been steadily downgraded over the last year to factor in China’s pivot towards LFP technology.

Going global

European and US automakers have until now stuck with high-nickel chemistries in their EV batteries but that may be starting to change.

Both Ford Motor and General Motors have shown interest in using CATL’s LFP technology.

Moreover, while China has been the only mass-producer of LFP batteries since the 2010s, the core patents that enabled this dominance expired in 2022.

This has sparked interest outside China.

For example, the IEA has noted a surge of LFP investment in Morocco, which is home to the world’s largest phosphate reserves. Importantly, it also holds free-trade agreements with both the European Union and the United States.

A twisting road

Li Auto’s L6 family sports utility vehicle is an example of how hybrid and LFP technologies have come together to upset preconceived notions about the EV market.

Boasting what the company calls “the latest generation of lithium-iron-phosphate battery”, the vehicle has a range of 212 kilometres in pure battery mode and a range of 1,390 kilometres in mixed battery-engine mode.

The Li6 can accelerate from zero to 100 kilometres an hour in 5.4 seconds, which lays to rest any fear that LFP batteries can’t deliver the same performance as nickel-rich batteries.

Such products are good news for the broader energy transition, offering consumers a cheap, reliable alternative route to an all-electric future.

But they challenge the idea that the global auto market will jump straight from the internal combustion engine to a pure battery vehicle.

They also defy expectations that all EV batteries need nickel and cobalt to enhance power and performance.

What’s more, the battery revolution has only just begun. Battery makers are investing heavily in research and development with the goal of developing ever cheaper, more powerful batteries.

Even lithium is at risk of substitution from sodium-ion batteries as CATL and other Chinese companies such as BYD expand capacity for the new technology.

Sodium-ion batteries could cost up to 20% less than incumbent technologies and can be used for both stationary storage and compact urban EVs, according to the IEA.

They use no lithium but, depending on chemistry, need both nickel and manganese, which foreshadows the potential for more metallic twists in the unpredictable electric vehicle revolution.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Louise Heavens)

Explorers and developers often overstate the certainty of mineral resource classifications based on inadequate data, Desharnais said at an event in Vancouver on Wednesday. The practice has in some instances led to unexpected analyst downgrades, soaring costs and debt, and the derailment of promising assets.

“That classification debt, unfortunately, needs to get paid,” he told about 430 conference participants from 21 countries at CIM’s first Mineral Resources & Mineral Reserves conference. “The CEO may be walking around with a 3-million-oz. resource estimate, but they haven’t earned that classification with sufficient drilling. When the debt comes due, it’s often through painful reclassifications and revisions.”

Decade of missteps

Several recent projects have demonstrated the high cost of classification debt.

Rubicon Resources’ catastrophic 91% downgrade in resource estimates in 2015 stands as one of the most glaring examples. After it began initial production at the F2 gold deposit on its Phoenix property in Ontario’s Red Lake district, the company found the deposit to be uneconomic, shuttering the operation. It had not completed a feasibility study for the high-grade project.

The size of the downgrade blindsided investors and stakeholders, and the company had to undergo a painful restructuring to survive. Rebranded as Battle North Gold, Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) bought it and its renamed Bateman project in 2021 for $343 million.

In 2018, Pretium Resources promoted the Brucejack gold project in northwestern British Columbia’s Golden Triangle, now owned by Newmont (NYSE: NEM, TSX: NGT, ASX: NEM, PNGX: NEM), as a high-grade gold deposit. Yet, the asset disappointed when gold production grades fell far below expectations.

The nuggety nature of the gold, with Brucejack’s steeply dipping quartz veins and erratic grade distribution, made it difficult to consistently meet production targets, forcing the company to push tonnage through the mill to compensate for lower-than-expected grades.

Aurora (2018), Rainy River (2019), and Gold Bar (2020) show how resource overestimation hurt Guyana Goldfields, New Gold (TSX: NGD; NYSE: NGD) and McEwen Mining (TSX: MUX; NYSE: MUX). They had to downgrade estimates mid-operation. This triggered mine plan revisions, soaring costs, production delays, and financial strain.

Grade versus geometric risk

Desharnais identifies two types of risk that contribute to resource misclassification: grade risk and geometric risk.

Grade risk reflects patchiness in ore quality, while geometric risk involves uncertainty about the size and shape of mineralized domains within the deposit.

Conditional simulations help assess grade risk, Desharnais said, but tools to quantify geometric risk are lacking.

Companies often overestimate deposit geometry without tighter drilling, leading to costly misjudgments.

“Sparse drilling gives us a simpler picture than reality,” he explained, adding that only closely spaced drilling can reveal the true complexity of orebodies.

Best practices

Mathieu Doucette, a senior geologist at ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT), talked about the difficulty of classifying resources at Canada’s largest iron mine, the Mont-Wright iron ore mine in Quebec, producing continuously since 1974. Outdated data can affect current resource estimates. He illustrated how mixing in fresh drill holes helps manage geological risk as part of a dynamic model essential to avoid misclassification.

“The first thing [a QP] will do is akin to lighting a torch,” he said. “But everything on the edges is dark, and you can’t really see it. Drill holes are our ability to try and get some information, but sparse data hides the full picture.”

David Machuca-Mory, a principal consultant at SRK Consulting, said fixed models are risky. Deposits can be more unpredictable than they seem. Adaptive methods help ensure estimates reflect reality, reducing the chance of costly surprises.

“Even with dense drilling, some areas remain highly uncertain,” Machuca-Mory said. “Confidence intervals are large, and relying solely on drill spacing doesn’t always guarantee accurate classification.”

Cognitive biases

Desharnais said that misclassification is not just a technical problem; human psychology plays a significant role.

Anchoring bias makes companies stick with initial estimates despite new data. Authority bias pressures geologists and consultants to confirm favourable results to please management or investors.

“The consulting firm wants the next contract,” Desharnais said. “The CEO has family and friends invested and needs good news. These biases create a system where classification debt builds up across projects, only to be paid through painful revisions later.”

Owning up

Desharnais argued for more conservative resource models and said benchmarking against operating mines would help set realistic expectations. He suggested that technical reports include histograms that show the distance between drill holes and classified resources, he added.

“It forces the QP or CP to look at what they’ve done and ask: Does this make sense?” he said. “Transparent reporting would help prevent overly aggressive classifications, ensuring companies earn their resource classifications with sufficient data.”

Such measures may slow development, but they could also reduce the prevalence of misclassified resources in the industry. Desharnais urged geologists to scrutinize each block of material above the cut-off grade.

“Over-promising today only delays the inevitable correction tomorrow,” he said.

The contracts will be the first domestic price-hedging mechanism for platinum and palladium in the world’s second-largest economy, where the metals are used by auto makers and other industries, including jewellery and investment products.

The GFEX declined to comment.

The World Platinum Investment Council, whose five members are major platinum producers, hopes hedging will help revive demand for platinum jewellery, Deng told the London Bullion Market Association’s annual conference in Miami on Monday.

Hedging by jewellery makers could reduce the premium they charge clients and the discount on buybacks of jewellery and platinum products, which could boost demand, the council said.

While China is the key market for platinum group metals, platinum jewellery demand in the country has slumped 79% from a peak of around 2 million troy ounces in 2014 amid a downturn in consumer preference for the metal.

(By Polina Devitt and Amy Lv; Editing by Sonali Paul)

India and the UAE signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2022 after 88 days of negotiations. The agreement has become a template for similar trade pacts the UAE has since signed with many other nations.

The two countries held a meeting of the Joint Committee under CEPA on Monday, where officials discussed growth in bilateral trade.

India raised the issue of higher imports of silver products, platinum alloy and dry dates and “urged UAE to verify compliance to the rules of origin norms and ensure that the rules are not circumvented,” New Delhi said in a statement.

UAE has agreed to examine India’s concerns, it added.

Reuters reported last month that Indian and Emirati officials were expected to review their trade agreement amid concerns raised by Indian industry over a sharp increase in imports of precious metals from UAE.

(By Tanvi Mehta and Shivangi Acharya; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

An Appian spokesperson told MINING.COM on Monday that the company will seek $522 million, plus additional interest and legal costs accrued from the liability trial in July 2024 until the upcoming trial to determine the exact amount Sibanye will have to pay, in November 2025. “The total claim by the time of the quantum trial will be in excess of $600 million,” the person said.

Sibanye-Stillwater spokesperson James Wellsted told Reuters on Monday that Sibanye’s case is that Appian “is entitled to either no or significantly reduced damages.” 

Appian took Sibanye-Stillwater to court in 2022, after the South African precious metals miner scrapped a transaction to buy shares in Atlantic Nickel and Mineração Vale Verde, owners of the Santa Rita nickel and Serrote copper mines in Brazil, respectively.

The acquisition of the two operations was meant to boost Sibanye’s critical metals portfolio as it sought to diversify away from platinum and gold.

Sibanye cited a geotechnical event at Santa Rita as the reason for terminating the deals. Appian claimed the miner’s decision was based on an “incorrect assertion”.

In the ruling, handed down following a five-week trial, Justice Butcher said the geotechnical event used by Sibanye as reason for withdrawing from the deal was neither expected to be material nor reasonably anticipated to become so.

Butcher noted there was “no other basis on which Sibanye was entitled to terminate the sale and purchase agreements (SPAs).”

Appian said it plans to recover the full extent of its losses, including all interest accumulated since January 2022, when Sibanye walked away from the deal.

Should Sibanye fail to pay the full amount awarded in the November 2025 trial, Appian said it would pursue all available enforcement measures.

In a separate statement, Sibanye noted the company was successful in having Appian’s claim of willful misconduct dismissed.

“The judge ruled that Sibanye-Stillwater management genuinely believed that it was entitled to terminate the SPAs in what they perceived as the best interests of Sibanye-Stillwater,” it said.

The company argues that Appian could have sold the Santa Rita and Serrote mines to another buyer for a similar price, which in Sibanye’s view means that Appian cannot claim all losses to be covered by Sibanye-Stillwater.

“The judgment notes that Appian received multiple offers for the mines after Sibanye-Stillwater terminated the SPAs. Accordingly, Sibanye-Stillwater will continue to defend the claim vigorously at the trial in November 2025,” it said.

Atlantic Nickel’s Santa Rita open pit mine in the Brazilian state of Bahia is one of the few long-life nickel sulphide mines currently in production. It also yields copper, cobalt, and platinum group metals as by-products.

The company is advancing the mine’s underground extension as it transitions from open-pit to underground operations. This shift to higher-grade nickel is expected to boost production rates and extend the mine’s operational life to over 20 years.

At the end of the third quarter of 2024, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners had a combined market capitalization of $1.51 trillion, up just under $76 billion from end-June, largely on the back of gold and royalty stocks.

The total stock market valuation of the world’s biggest mining companies is up a fairly modest 8% year to end-September and despite the good run is still $240 billion below the peak hit in the second quarter of 2022.  

Ranks, value of gold stocks swell

The value of precious metals and royalty companies climbed by a combined $42 billion, or 16% during the quarter and gold counters dominate the best performing ranks. 

Were it not for the limited tradability of stock in Russia’s Polyus, which lost some ground over the last three months despite gold’s stellar performance, bullion’s effect on the Top 50 would have been even more pronounced. 

Canada’s Alamos Gold joins the top 50 for the first time with a more than 31% jump in value, lifting it six places to number 48 with a valuation of $8.2 billion at the end of the quarter while the second quarter’s newcomer Pan American Silver (following its absorption of Yamana Gold) hangs on at no 50.

Alamos Gold last month raised its production guidance by over 20% for 2025-2026 with the inclusion of the Magino mine and its integration with its Island Gold operation in Ontario. The Toronto- based miner has long term ambitions to grow its production base to 900,000 ounces per year.

Uzbekistan is readying an IPO for Navoi Mining and Metallurgy Combinat – the world’s fourth largest gold mining company and significant uranium producer in 2025. NMMC debuted a $1 billion bond offering last week, marking the first global debt market issuance from a gold mining company since June 2023.

Navoi should easily join the ranks of gold producers in the top 50 thanks to ownership of the world’s largest gold mine, Muruntau, and annual production of 2.9 million ounces at grades and per ounce extraction costs the envy of the sector.  

The Muruntau open pit mine southwest of the Kyzylkum desert, originally developed during the Soviet era as a source of uranium, has estimated reserves of around 130 million ounces of gold. 

Goldilocks copper

Copper specialists, and those with fat gold credits, have gained a combined 36% year to date as the copper price continues to flirt with the $10,000 a tonne level, but momentum slowed dramatically during Q3 with the group contributing only $7.2 billion in added market worth during the quarter. 

Amman Mineral’s fierce rally also came to an abrupt halt during the quarter with the counter losing 18% over the three months and coming close to falling out of the top 10.

Investors who bought Amman, owner of the world’s third largest mine worldwide in terms of copper equivalent, at the IPO price in Jakarta a year ago, are still enjoying 400% gains since then, however. 

Southern Copper’s position as the world’s third most valuable mining stock seems entrenched after a double digit percentage gain in Q3 compared to a much more sedate performance by Freeport-McMoRan, which now has to gain a full $20 billion in market cap to haul in its Mexico City-based rival.

Light on lithium 

Rio Tinto’s vote of confidence in the long term future of the lithium sector (and its own ability to make M&A work) dominated the news at the start of the December-quarter but it’s worth noting that Arcadium’s more than 90% surge since the all-cash offer was first announced is not enough for the stock to enter the rankings.

Three lithium counters exited the rankings this year, Australia’s Pilbara Minerals and Mineral Resources and China’s Tianqi Lithium as the deep slump in prices for the battery metal continues to take its toll.  

Last quarter’s no 50, Ganfeng Lithium jumps six places after being swept up in the stimulus-induced rally on Chinese stock markets at the end of the quarter, while Tianqi’s performance so far in October should see it reenter the Top 50 in due course. 

Ganfeng was barely holding on at position 50 at end-June and with gold price momentum continuing and two gold mining companies waiting in the winds – Yintai and Alamos – only three lithium counters in the top 50 may be a reality for some time to come. 

After peaking in the second quarter of 2022 with a combined value of nearly $120 billion, the remaining lithium stocks’ market value has now shrunk to $34 billion.  

Iron ore ground down

Despite a modest improvement during the quarter, the mining industry’s traditional big 5 – BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Vale and Anglo American – remain in the red for 2024, losing $24 billion since the start of the year. 

The big 5 diversifieds now make up 29% of the total index, down from a height of 38% at the end of 2022.  

Iron ore’s less than rosy outlook – the late boost China’s recent stimulus package notwithstanding – saw Fortescue once again feature on the biggest losers list and Cleveland Cliffs exit the ranking with the US iron ore miner’s 37% decline this year exacerbated by its inability to capitalize on the blocking of the Nippon-US Steel tie up. 

Iron ore’s representation in the top 50 have diminished in the last couple of years – Brazil’s CSN Mineração dropped out during Q1 this year while Anglo-controlled and separately-listed Kumba Iron Ore has lost touch with the top tier after a 40% fall year to date.

Click on image for full size table.

NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, stock exchange data, company reports. Share data from primary-listed exchange at close Oct 4, 2024 close of trading converted to US$ where applicable. Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.  

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining (the gold and uranium giant may list later this year), Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like China’s CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining will continue to represent a small portion of its valuation.  

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.

US Strategic Metals (USSM) and Stillwater Critical Minerals (TSXV: PGE) have entered into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that includes lobbying collaboration to the US government, metallurgical and mineral processing development, offtake and logistics, and potential strategic financing.

Stillwater Critical Minerals is currently developing its flagship Stillwater West project, which is host to a nickel-PGE (platinum group elements)-copper-cobalt (plus gold) deposit situated in the Stillwater mining district of Montana.

USSM is planning to mine what it considers to be the largest cobalt reserve in North America. It holds an 18-year mineral supply of cobalt (plus nickel and copper) on a 7.3-square-kilometre site in Missouri, known as the Madison mine project.

USSM currently has an has an offtake relationship with Glencore (LON: GLEN), and in August was tapped by the Export-Import Bank of the United States for a loan package worth $400 million with a term of 15 years to support the development of its mining and metallurgical project.

The goal of USSM, said the company, is to build a large critical metal supply chain that provides reliable, traceable and conflict-free battery metals to the country.

“USSM aims to significantly expand production in the coming years and, as such, is successfully developing relationships with raw materials suppliers to allow it to meet rapidly growing critical metal demand,” CEO Stacy Hastie stated in a news release.

“Stillwater West fits this mandate extremely well, for its scale, grade and suite of critical minerals, nearly all of which the US is heavily reliant upon imports,” she said, adding that it is “one of the most important potential future sources of at least eight critical minerals”, and its development is “perfectly in line” with the US government’s mandate on securing domestic supply of these materials.

Stillwater Critical Minerals CEO Michael Rowley said the MOU has the potential to accelerate necessary engineering and metallurgical studies and follow-on to the company’s expanding base of government grant funding and partnerships with the US Geological Survey, Cornell University and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory for CO2 sequestration, hydrogen and hydrometallurgical studies.

“This MOU also reflects our broad alignment on ESG values and a shared vision for a large-scale, low-carbon American critical mineral supply chain based in an iconic and famously metal-rich US mining district that has produced critical minerals for over a century,” Rowley said.

At the end of the third quarter of 2024, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners had a combined market capitalization of $1.51 trillion, up just under $76 billion from end-June, largely on the back of gold and royalty stocks.

The total stock market valuation of the world’s biggest mining companies is up a fairly modest 8% year to end-September and despite the good run is still $240 billion below the peak hit in the second quarter of 2022.  

Ranks, value of gold stocks swell

The value of precious metals and royalty companies climbed by a combined $42 billion or 16% during the quarter and gold counters dominate the best performing ranks. 

Were it not for the limited tradability of stock in Russia’s Polyus, which lost some ground over the three months despite gold’s stellar performance, bullion’s effect on the Top 50 would have been even more pronounced. 

Canada’s Alamos Gold joins the top 50 for the first time with a  more than 31% jump in value lifting it six places to number 48 with a valuation of $8.2 billion at the end of the quarter while the second quarter’s newcomer Pan American Silver (following its absorption of Yamana Gold) hangs on at no 50.

Alamos Gold last month raised its production guidance by over 20% for 2025-2026 with the inclusion of the Magino mine and its integration with its Island Gold operation in Ontario. The Toronto based miner has long term ambitions to grow its production base to 900,000 ounces per year.

Uzbekistan is readying an IPO for Navoi Mining and Metallurgy Combinat – the world’s fourth largest gold mining company and significant uranium producer in 2025. NMMC debuted a $1 billion bond offering last week, marking the first global debt market issuance from a gold mining company since June 2023.

Navoi should easily join the ranks of gold producers in the top 50 thanks to ownership of the world’s largest gold mine, Muruntau, and annual production of 2.9 million ounces at grades and per ounce extraction costs the envy of the sector.  

The Muruntau open pit mine southwest of the Kyzylkum desert, originally developed during the Soviet era as a source of uranium, has estimated reserves of around 130 million ounces of gold. 

Goldilocks copper

Copper specialists, and those with fat gold credits, have gained a combined 36% year to date as the copper price continues to flirt with the $10,000 a tonne level but momentum slowed dramatically during Q3 with the group contributing only $7.2 billion in added market worth during the quarter. 

Amman Mineral’s fierce rally also came to an abrupt halt during the quarter with the counter losing 18% over the three months and coming close to falling out of the top 10.

Investors who bought Amman, owner of the world’s third largest mine worldwide in terms of copper equivalent, at the IPO price in Jakarta a year ago, are still enjoying 400% gains since then however. 

Southern Copper’s position as the world’s third most valuable mining stock seems entrenched after a double digit percentage gain in Q3 compared to a much more sedate performance by Freeport-McMoRan which now has to gain a full $20 billion in market cap to haul in its Mexico City-based rival.

Light on lithium 

Rio Tinto’s vote of confidence in the long term future of the lithium sector (and its own ability to make M&A work) dominated the news at the start of the December-quarter but it’s worth noting that Arcadium’s more than 90% surge since the all-cash offer was first announced are not enough for the stock to enter the rankings.

Three lithium counters exited the rankings this year, Australia’s  Pilbara Minerals and Mineral Resources and China’s Tianqi Lithium as the deep slump in prices for the battery metal continues to take its toll.  

Last quarter’s no 50, Ganfeng Lithium jumps six places after being swept up in the stimulus-induced rally on Chinese stock markets at the end of the quarter while Tianqi’s performance so far in October should see it reenter the Top 50 in due course. 

Ganfeng was barely holding on at position 50 at end-June and with gold price momentum continuing and two gold mining companies waiting in the winds – Yintai and Alamos – only three lithium counters in the top 50 may be a reality for some time to come. 

After peaking in the second quarter of 2022 with a combined value of nearly $120 billion, the remaining lithium stocks’ market value has now shrunk to $34 billion.  

Iron ore ground down

Despite a modest improvement during the quarter, the mining industry’s traditional big 5 – BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Vale and Anglo American – remain in the red for 2024, losing $24 billion since the start of the year. 

The big 5 diversifieds now make up 29% of the total index, down from a height of 38% at the end of 2022.  

Iron ore’s less than rosy outlook – the late boost China’s recent stimulus package notwithstanding – saw Fortescue once again feature on the biggest losers list and Cleveland Cliffs exit the ranking with the US iron ore miner’s 37% decline this year exacerbated by its inability to capitalize on the blocking of the Nippon-US Steel tie up. 

Iron ore’s representation in the top 50 have diminished in the last couple of years – Brazil’s CSN Mineração dropped out during Q1 this year while Anglo-controlled and separately-listed Kumba Iron Ore has lost touch with the top tier after a 40% fall year to date.

Click on image for full size table.

NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, stock exchange data, company reports. Share data from primary-listed exchange at close Oct 4, 2024 close of trading converted to US$ where applicable. Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.  

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining (the gold and uranium giant may list later this year), Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like China’s CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining will continue to represent a small portion of its valuation.  

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.

The platinum bars — made by Swiss refiner PAMP — are priced at $1,089.99 on the wholesaler’s US website, and are limited to one per Costco member.

The bars are only available online, but cannot be delivered to certain American jurisdictions such as Louisiana, Nevada or Puerto Rico, the company said in an announcement Wednesday.

With the platinum product, Costco is looking to replicate the success it had with the PAMP gold bars, which launched in August 2023 and became an instant hit, often selling out within hours of a restock.

Earlier this year, analysts at Wells Fargo reported that Costco was selling as much as $200 million worth of gold bars a month.

The new offering comes at a time when platinum is struggling to match the performance of gold in what could be a monumental year for precious metals. In 2024, the metal has only risen 1%, compared to a near 30% gain for gold.

This is also despite a noticeably healthy demand and supply shortfall in the global platinum market, which the World Platinum Investment Council says should “offer some support for prices.”

At press time, the spot price of platinum is at $1,009.50 per ounce.

Teck will pay a total of C$275,000 cash over the next two years, and Canterra will retain a 1.5% net smelter royalty. The NSR can be reduced to 0.5% upon the exercise of a buy-back right by Teck for a further C$2 million to Canterra.

Canterra’s Ring of Fire Property covers approximately 30 sq. km. of land acquired through staking in 2023. It is located 40 km from the Eagle’s Nest nickel-platinum group metals deposit, owned by Australian Wyloo Pty.

Canterra calls this area of the James Bay Lowlands ‘largely unexplored’ due to limited bedrock exposure. The property is known to host several strong VTEM anomalies identified as high-priority drill targets.

The property covers several geophysical targets within bedrock units, that based upon their geophysical attributes, are inferred to be similar to host rocks to the Eagle’s Nest deposit, including mafic to ultramafic intrusive rocks prospective for magmatic nickel sulphide deposits.

The investment was announced last week by Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, alongside BC’s Minister of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation Josie Osborne and Yukon Premier Ranj Pillai.

The C$60 million in funding, subject to final due diligence by Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), will be divided between two key infrastructure projects for critical minerals mining, one in each region.

Approximately C$20 million will fund the construction of a 43-km access road linking the proposed Galore Creek copper mine located in Tahltan Territory in northern BC. The deposits at Galore Creek are estimated to contain over 12 billion lb. of copper, which would significantly increase Canada’s annual copper supply once in production. The mine is being developed under a 50/50 joint venture between Newmont and Teck Resources.

The other C$40 million will be used by the Yukon government to undertake pre-feasibility activities to advance a 765-km, high-voltage transmission line network that would connect the Yukon electrical grid to the North American grid in BC. The transmission line, says NRCan, could support projects producing critical minerals such as cobalt, copper, molybdenum, nickel, platinum group metals, tungsten and zinc.

These infrastructure projects, combined with the recently announced Northwest BC Highway Corridor Improvements project, are key to facilitating critical minerals development in the Golden Triangle, which holds approximately 75% of Canada’s known copper reserves, and Yukon, NRCan said.

The fundings, if approved, are to be provided through the Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund (CMIF) — a key program under the Canadian government’s strategy to address infrastructure gaps and enable sustainable critical minerals production.

“These two projects, under the Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy’s flagship program, will develop the necessary infrastructure to access and transport our rich critical mineral resources in northern BC and the Yukon,” Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson said in a press release on Friday.

“Developments like these help mines get built faster, and they are a key element in seizing the generational opportunity before us. These investments are needed to support critical minerals development in the region, improve community access and safety, and create good mining jobs across British Columbia and the Yukon,” he said.

Nevertheless, says McKinsey, the industry is in healthier financial shape compared to historical averages. 

From 2000 to 2023, metals and mining revenues grew by $1.7 trillion, a jump of roughly 75% and affording the industry a 70% slice of the overall materials business which also includes plastics, pulp, and building materials. As a whole, materials represent some 7% of the global GDP.  

Profits in the industry have also been robust with mining, refining and metal fabrication EBITDA nearly doubling over the almost quarter century going from $500 billion to $900 billion. 

Moreover, Mckinsey points out, mining and metal companies’ debt burden has decreased with net debt over EBITDA ratios of 1.3 times, well below the through-cycle average of 1.8 times. 

“However, 2024 has already proven to be a more challenging year for the industry as overall economic growth slows down and the shift toward low-carbon technologies unfolds more slowly than expected, both of which are putting downward pressure on price levels, especially for battery materials, such as nickel and lithium,” McKinsey says.

Not only are battery and other metals associated with decarbonisation facing headwinds, the sector – even when lumping in bellwether copper – hardly makes up 15% of global metals and mining revenues. Until such time the copper price reaches the levels predicted by more outlandish scenarios, the share is not likely to grow much.  

For instance, the market size of rare earths mining, and metal and alloy production (included in the other section of the graph) which is used in defence applications and many energy transition applications including wind turbines and motors for electric vehicles, is below $20 billion.

Thermal coal and steel account for around 60%–70% of revenues and production volumes of 7 billion tonnes and 2 billion tonnes respectively are more than 30 times higher than all other metals and minerals combined. Output by the largest among the latter, aluminum, at roughly 100 million tonnes, does not make much of a dent in the overall total.

The bulk of mining and metals activity and revenues remains subjected to the ups and downs of the global economy, particularly the outlook for China where the signs are not great.  

While the green energy transition may rightfully represent a new dawn for mining, it’s still very early in the morning.

The new PEA, released Tuesday, pegs pre-production cash costs for the nickel-copper-PGE project at C$27.7 million, down from C$81 million in the initial study, and gives the underground mine a base case post-tax net present value (at an 8% discount) of C$194.1 million and a 13-year mine life.

“A low capital approach of establishing a new surface portal will provide quick access to the resource, allowing us to offset capital costs with early revenues,” Jeff Huffman, chief operating officer, said in a release. “The project timeline has been derisked by having environmental permits approved and in-hand, as well as more detailed stope planning and sequence optimization.”

The update comes just over one year after its predecessor and almost six months after Magna inked a toll-milling agreement with Vale (NYSE: VALE). It would send initial production from Crean Hill to Vale’s nearby Clarabelle mill.

Stock uptick

Magna shares gained 2.6% to C$1.18 apiece on Tuesday morning in Toronto, valuing the company at C$201.1 million. Its shares traded in a 52-range of C$0.37 to C$1.35. 

The study assumes metal prices of $8.50 per lb. nickel, $4.00 per lb. copper and $13.00 per lb. cobalt. Also factored in are $900 per oz. platinum, $1,000 per oz. palladium and $2,150 per oz. gold.

Pre-production capital could be paid back within the first year of commercial production, which would be preceded by a 15-month period of advanced exploration, Magna said. Cash costs from that period could be paid back within the second year of commercial production.

The average production rate is estimated at 2,200 tonnes per day, including 1,650 tonnes of higher-margin primary feed and 550 tonnes per day of lower grade feed.

Historic shaft uses

Initial mining is to happen by ramp access through a new surface portal and the eventual re-establishment of the historical Number Two shaft for personnel access and hoisting. The site hosts a past-producing mine that operated between 1900 and 2002 under various owners including Inco and Vale.

Crean Hill’s underground portion hosts 14.5 million indicated tonnes grading 0.96% nickel, 0.84% copper, 0.03% cobalt, 0.88 gram per tonne platinum, 1.02 grams palladium and 0.54 gram gold, according to a resource from 2022. Inferred resources measure 1.1 million tonnes at 0.61% nickel, 0.46% copper, 0.02% cobalt, 0.64 gram platinum, 1.09 grams palladium and 0.21 gram gold.

Its open-pit portion hosts 16.7 indicated tonnes at 0.53% nickel, 0.49% copper, 0.02% cobalt, 0.48 gram platinum, 0.37 gram palladium and 0.25 gram gold. Inferred resources total 430,000 tonnes at 0.43% nickel, 0.49% copper, 0.02% cobalt, 0.29 gram platinum, 0.14 gram palladium and 0.07 gram gold.

Total contained metal is estimated at more than 500 million lb. nickel, 450 million lb. copper, 650,000 oz. platinum, 675,000 oz. palladium and 385,000 oz. of gold. Magna bought Crean Hill, formerly known as Denison, in August 2022 for C$16 million when it acquired Lonmin Canada.

Palladium – the main metal produced at Sibanye’s US operations – is trading at less than a third of its peak in March 2022. The company says more cost-cutting is required at its American mining assets, after previously writing down their value by about $2.4 billion.

“Further restructuring of the US PGM operations is necessary to reduce cash outflows,” Sibanye said in a statement on Thursday.

The company said it would undertake a “fundamental review” of the operations to bring down costs. Sibanye shares jumped more than 13% in Johannesburg trading.

Sibanye’s diversification into platinum-group metals — from its original dependence on aging South African gold mines — yielded bumper profits in the early years of this decade. Now slumping prices have forced the company and peers like Anglo American Platinum Ltd. to slash costs and reduce their workforces.

The restructuring is likely to result in platinum and palladium production from the Stillwater assets in the US being reduced by approximately 200,000 ounces from 2025. Sibanye is forecasting output of 440,000-460,000 ounces this year.

The company intends to suspend operations at the Stillwater West project and curtail production at the East Boulder mine, while increasing output of higher grade material from Stillwater East. That will result in the loss of about 800 jobs, following smaller reductions that came when Sibanye shelved an expansion late last year.

The South African firm announced the new cost-cutting plans as it posted a first-half loss of 7.1 billion rand ($396 million). That included a 7.5 billion-rand impairment at the US mines.

Sibanye – which has about 15% fewer workers in South Africa than at the end of 2022 – said that PGM operations in its home country remained profitable even as the average price received for the metals was 28% lower than a year earlier.

The firm also cut its guidance for gold output in 2024 by as much as 19% following disruptions at two projects.

North American mines, which tend to contain more palladium, are particularly vulnerable in the current market. Sibanye’s peer Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. is shortening the life of its asset in Canada. Projects in South Africa typically produce a greater share of platinum, which has dropped by a smaller amount.

Producers of PGMs – which are used in devices to curb emissions in gasoline and diesel vehicles – are focused on finding alternative long-term applications for the metals as electric vehicles increase their market share.

Sibanye has been bolstering its financial position. Last month, the company announced it had agreed €500 million of financing for a lithium project in Finland, concluded a 1.8 billion rand prepayment deal for gold production and increased its rand revolving-credit facility to 6 billion rand.

The miner said on Thursday that it’s in the advanced stages of securing an additional $600 million to $700 million through prepay and stream agreements for chrome, gold and PGM production.

Profit before some one-time items – known as headline earnings – declined 98% to 137 million rand.

(By William Clowes)

The industry body, funded by South African platinum miners Anglo American (LON: AAL), Northam Platinum, Sedibelo Platinum Mines, Impala Platinum Holdings (JSE: IMP), and Tharisa (JSE: THA) – estimates the global industry has shed around 10,000 jobs this year alone.

The WPIC’s latest report highlights the significant impact of declining platinum group metals (PGMs) prices on the sector, especially in South Africa, which accounts for about 70% of global output.

The plunge in PGMs prices has been a key driver behind the current challenges in the sector. Platinum, used in automotive catalytic converters, jewellery, and various industrial applications, has seen demand volatility due to shifts in global markets and the transition toward greener technologies.

The pressure of weak prices on margins has forced companies to slash their workforce in order to remain viable. According to the WPIC, the sector is now operating at levels last seen before the pandemic, which caused major disruptions and uncertainty across global commodity markets.

Long-term production concerns

While job cuts have provided short-term relief for mining companies, the WPIC is concerned about the long-term consequences. Reducing the workforce could erode South Africa’s production capacity, leading to a potential shortfall in global supply over time, it said. 

Production in South Africa this year is expected to fall 2% year-on-year to around 3.9 million ounces.

“The current strategy may risk long-term production erosion,” the Council said, emphasizing the need for a careful balance between cost-cutting and maintaining sustainable output levels.

The WPIC warns that without careful management, the sector could face a deeper supply crisis in the future, which could destabilize not only South Africa’s mining sector but also global platinum markets. 

 With declines in Russian output, global production this year is seen falling 2% to 5.5 million ounces, a four-year low, the Council said.

Some of Zimbabwe’s biggest miners are seeking $182 million to develop 200 megawatts of locally-generated solar power, according to the head of the renewables company responsible for the projects.

The agreement was signed between Grid Africa and the Intensive Energy User Group, whose members include Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd.’s Zimbabwean unit, Tsingshan Holdings Group Co.’s Afrochine Smelting Pvt. Ltd and RioZim Ltd. among others.

“Talks with various funding partners, such as mining companies, banks, developmental financiers, and vendors like Power China and RIC Energy, are progressing,” Norman Moyo, co-founder and chief executive of Grid Africa said in an interview. “The financing structure will consist of about 70% debt and 30% equity.”

Zimbabwe faces an energy shortfall that often triggers the state-owned power company to implement rolling blackouts to balance supply and demand. The worst drought in four decades has compounded the crisis, cutting supplies from hydropower plants. Several miners rely on imported power from neighboring Mozambique to operate.

Zimbabwe boasts the second-largest platinum deposit and high-grade chromium ores in the world, and mining contributes about 12% to the country’s gross domestic product and makes up around 80% of its exports, according to the US International Trade Administration. Additional and cheaper electricity is likely to significantly increase the sector’s contribution to economic growth.

The first phase of the deal focuses on mining companies with ready-to-go projects that have the necessary licenses but lack financing, according to Moyo. “Large mines benefit from dedicated grid infrastructure, enabling them to source power flexibly. Transitioning to local solar generation will offer significant cost and foreign exchange savings compared to importing power,” he said.

Grid Africa emerged from Distributed Power Africa, initially linked to Zimbabwean billionaire Strive Masiyiwa.

(By Godfrey Marawanyika and Loni Prinsloo)

Anglo American South Africa Proprietary Limited sold 13.9 million Amplats shares for $28.84 per share, the miner said.

An accelerated bookbuild offering of about 13 million shares of Amplats was launched on Tuesday, ahead of the South African unit’s demerger expected next year.

“The placing is intended to broaden the free float of Anglo American Platinum, reduce the number of shares distributed to Anglo American shareholders upon demerger and thereby reduce flowback following the demerger,” Anglo American said.

Amplats CEO Craig Miller had said in July that the company was planning a secondary listing in London.

($1 = 17.8824 rand)

(By Aatrayee Chatterjee and Yamini Kalia; Editing by Shreya Biswas and Mrigank Dhaniwala)

London-listed Anglo American had said in May it was considering a demerger of Amplats in a move to reduce costs.

“The placing is intended to broaden the free float of Anglo American Platinum, reduce the number of shares distributed to Anglo American shareholders upon demerger and thereby reduce flowback following the demerger,” Anglo American said.

The shares on offer represent about 5% of Amplats’ total issued ordinary shares.

Amplats CEO Craig Miller had said in July the company is planning a secondary listing in London.

(By Aatrayee Chatterjee; Editing by Shreya Biswas)

A 1-million-oz. deficit is forecast this year, up from 731,000 oz. in 2023, as supply edges 1% lower to nearly 7.1 million oz. while demand is expected to grow 3% – the largest gain in five years – to 8.1 million oz., the World Platinum Investment Council says in a new report released on Tuesday.

The council, which represents miners of platinum group metals, forecasts investor demand – driven by exchange traded funds (ETFs) and metal bar and coin sales in China – to rise 15% to 517,000 oz. this year.

Jewelry use is to increase by 7% while mining production is to ease by 1%. Automotive and industrial demand are each predicted to increase 1%, but their levels are already high, the council’s research director, Edward Sterck, told The Northern Miner by phone.

“Automotive demand is at a seven-year high and very much the theme there is higher-for-longer demand for internal combustion engine-containing vehicles,” Sterck said from London where the council is based. “If you exclude the Covid-impacted 2020, and 2014 which was impacted by strikes, it’s actually the weakest year for mine supply since 2000.”

Electric vehicles

Platinum demand can act as a kind of bellwether for the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), which don’t use catalytic converters to reduce emissions. Leading automakers such as Ford, Toyota and Stellantis have scaled back EV production amid slower than expected sales although hybrids are maintaining growth as vehicle producers lean on them to hit emissions targets. Hybrid autos require more platinum proportionally than traditional cars because their systems operate at lower temperatures, Sterck said.

The council – funded by South African platinum miners Anglo American (LSE: AAL), Northam Platinum, Sedibelo Platinum Mines, Impala Platinum Holdings (JSE: IMP), and Tharisa (JSE: THA) – sees more cost-driven restructuring in South Africa, the leading platinum producer. Production there this year is expected to fall 2% year-on-year to around 3.9 million ounces. With declines in Russian output, global production this year is seen falling 2% to 5.5 million oz., a four-year low, the council said.

Miners have cut back on their capital spending programs substantially and shed about 10,000 jobs, about 6% of the workforce, through the usual legal processes and avoiding labour unrest, Sterck said.

“They’re just effectively trying to improve their labour productivity and drive down their operating costs,” he said. “We’re not expecting any dramatic production cuts as a result of the low palladium and rhodium prices, but the cutback in capex and headcount means you’re probably going to see a gradual erosion of supply going forwards.”

The price of platinum has fallen about 4% this year to about $950 per oz. on Tuesday. Rhodium increased 9.2% this year to $4,750 per ounce​.

Recycling, industries

Global recycling is expected to reach nearly 1.6 million oz. this year, a 2% year-on-year increase.  The spent autocatalyst market should show signs of stabilizing after two years of declines, the council said. Above-ground stockpiles are forecast to drop for the second year in a row, with one-quarter plunge to a four-year low of 3 million oz., just over four months’ worth of demand cover.

Industrial demand is forecast to reach 2.4 million oz. in 2024, marking a 1% year-on-year increase over the elevated levels of 2023. It offsets a sharp decline in platinum chemical offtake, which dropped by nearly half year-on-year to 122,000 oz. in the second quarter, primarily due to a slowdown in China’s petrochemical industry. Chemical demand is expected to decrease by 31% to 542,000 ounces.

Investors

The quarterly report of the council marked the first time it included demand figures from Chinese investors in bars and coins of more than 500 grams. They’re expected to achieve 40% year-on-year growth for full-year 2024 to 188,000 ounces. However, bar and coin investment fell in Japan and in North America.

“We’ve seen, obviously, a lot of demand for gold investment product in China,” Sterck said. “That’s flowing through to platinum investment demand, and that’s grown from effectively from zero five years ago.”

During the second quarter, investment demand surged to its highest level since 2020’s third-quarter, driven by a substantial inflow of 444,000 oz. into platinum ETFs. These included the London-based Wisdom Tree Physical Platinum fund with $629 million under management, and the iShares Physical Platinum fund with $165.9 million.

Jewelry, hydrogen

Historically high gold prices are helping platinum jewelry demand grow to a forecast 2 million oz. this year. India shows strong 28% growth, Japan is forecast to rise by 8% while Europe and North America are expected to reach record high increases of 4% and 3%, respectively. China is set to improve by 3%, reversing a decline in demand that has persisted since 2013, the council said.

The metal’s use is expanding in transportation with the mandated spread of hydrogen fuel cells and charging stations in China and Europe. But its appeal may be limited in North America to long-distance trucking where battery-powered 18-wheelers are impractical on cross-continental routes, Sterck said.

“The challenge is the refueling infrastructure,” he said. “You can’t, with current battery technology, economically electrify coast-to-coast truck transportation because you’re giving up a third of your payload to your battery weight, you’ve got to stop for six hours charging every day, plus arguably in the Midwest, for example, the grids can’t supply that megawatt charging per vehicle requirements.

“So, hydrogen actually is a potential solution to that, and it’s one that’s probably lower cost and easier to implement, but that’s the main scenario where it makes sense in North America.”

PGMs – principally platinum and palladium – face a long-term structural decline in demand as their main use has been to clean auto exhausts, a process that is not needed in pure EVs.

A few years ago, the prospects for PGMs, and producers such as Anglo Platinum, Impala Platinum and Sibanye Stillwater, appeared grim as EV sales soared, and the drop-off in demand was expected to be steep.

But a tapering in growth of EV sales, and a surge in demand for hybrid cars that need catalytic converters to curb pollution, have given PGMs a new lease of life that could put a floor under prices and keep some mines open for longer.

“You’re still facing an outright demand decline, but there’s not an immediate collapse, which could have been the projection in some (previous) scenarios,” said Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie Bank in Singapore.

The increase in sales of pure EVs globally in the first half of 2024 slowed to 11% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales jumped 44%, according to consultancy Rho Motion.

For EVs, the figures are a big fall-off from two years ago when sales rocketed 77%.

Popular PHEVs include BYD’s Song and the BMW 3 Series.

Garvey said the PGM situation had some parallels to coal, which is being phased out as governments slash carbon emissions, but will still be needed for years until more renewable energy is rolled out.

Weak PGM prices are currently curbing investment in production and if miners decide to shut operations due to low profitability, prices could become volatile.

“The scope for the market to get tighter than currently projected seems very, very high if we start to see some producer response,” Garvey said.

Hybrid strength

The rise of hybrids could last until 2030 or longer, extending the period when PGMs are needed, analysts said.

“The shift to hybridization could be quite meaningful for the longer-term sustainability of the PGM industry,” said Wilma Swarts, director of PGMs at consultancy Metals Focus.

The weakness in EV sales means that combined sales of petrol and hybrid cars, which was expected to be flat last year, climbed by 9%, according to catalyst maker and PGM specialist Johnson Matthey.

“This alone added 600,000 ounces to our automotive PGM demand estimates,” it said in a report, adding that total auto PGM demand rose 8% last year to 13.1 million ounces, the second highest total ever.

Surge in plug-in hybrids

The biggest growth area has been in PHEVs in China, which saw sales surge by 70% in the first half.

Consultancy Alix Partners has more than doubled its forecast for the global share of PHEVs to 12% by 2030 from 5% two years ago.

“We have marked it up quite significantly because of the developments in the last couple of years,” said Gerrit Reepmeyer at Alix.

A survey by Alix this year showed that in the world’s two biggest car markets, the United States and China, more than 80% of consumers who were likely to buy an EV were veering towards a PHEV rather than a pure EV.

That could boost PGM demand as about 10-15% more platinum metals are needed in PHEVs than petrol vehicles because engine pollution is higher when starting a cold engine, Swarts said. Petrol engines in hybrids, especially PHEVs, are infrequently used and so often start cold.

Shifting resources

Analysts say the trend towards hybrids is expected to persist until EVs can compete on price with petrol cars worldwide, batteries offer longer driving ranges, and more charging stations are rolled out.

Many carmakers are happy shifting resources to hybrids, which have higher margins than EVs.

Last week, the world’s biggest automaker Toyota was reported to have slashed its EV production plans for 2026 by a third, while Sweden’s Volvo Cars scrapped its target of going all electric by 2030.

Ford, Toyota and Stellantis have all burnished their hybrid plans in recent months.

“Automakers are trying to find that sweet spot in terms of profitability, consumer acceptance and compliance with regulations,” Swarts said.

New US auto emission regulations also bolster the outlook for hybrids by allowing automakers to comply with an EV mandate by producing more gas-electric hybrids.

The US and Canada have seen the biggest gains in conventional hybrid sales, up 33% in the first half of 2024.

Each additional million cars that need catalysts will add about 150,000 ounces of PGM demand, Swarts said.

In China, where EVs are already similar in price to petrol cars, many consumers are opting for extended range plug-in hybrids. In such vehicles the petrol engine is solely used for charging the battery, providing longer driving distances.

No help for nickel, cobalt

The shift to hybrids is expected to curb demand for key battery materials such as cobalt and nickel, since hybrid batteries are smaller than those in EVs.

The weighted average battery size for PHEVs for the first half of this year was 23.3 kilowatt hours (kWh), versus 64.5 kWh for pure battery EVs (BEVs), according to consultancy CRU.

“The shift towards PHEVs and the pullback of BEV targets is likely to be an overall negative to battery material demand growth over the next few years,” said Sam Adham, head of battery materials at CRU.

(By Eric Onstad and Polina Devitt; Editing by Veronica Brown and Mark Potter)

The shareholders’ meeting will be held on Sept. 30.

Rusal, controlled by EN+ group, last paid а dividend for the first half of 2022, the first time in five years. It returned $304 million to shareholders.

The company decided not to pay a final dividend for 2022 and did not pay for 2023.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

ARM’s headline earnings slumped to 5.08 billion rand ($286.89 million) in the year ended June 30, from a restated 8.98 billion the previous year, mainly due to lower PGM and coal prices.

The company’s board has approved the construction of a chrome recovery plant at its Bokoni platinum mine, where the platinum ramp up will be “phased and measured” due to the lower prices.

The basket price of PGMs fell about 40% last year and the slide has continued into 2024.

South African platinum miners are increasingly turning to chrome, which is a by-product of their primary production, to offset the impact of low PGM prices.

“That is additional revenue. It comes on top of what you already have in terms of fixed costs, therefore diluting your overall operating costs,” ARM CEO Phillip Tobias said during a results call.

“If you look at the trends, you would have seen that China has been buying a lot of chrome ore,” he added.

Other miners, including Sibanye Stillwater and Harmony Gold have recently diversified into critical metals such as lithium and copper, which are vital for renewable energy systems.

In May, ARM acquired a 15% stake in Surge Copper, which has two copper exploration projects in Canada.

“We want to get in there. It is part of ARM’s strategy of diversification into copper,” Mike Schmidt, ARM’s executive for growth and strategic development, said during the same call.

Tobias said the ARM board considered its 12% shareholding in Harmony Gold to be more strategic now due to the gold miner’s copper assets.

Harmony expects to start producing from its Eva Copper project in Australia by 2028. It also jointly owns the Wafi-Golpu gold-copper project in Papua New Guinea with Newmont.

($1=17.6982 rand)

(By Nelson Banya; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and David Evans)

The South African miner expects to report a loss per share

of between 2.508 rand and 2.772 rand for the six months to June 30 after posting a profit of 2.62 rand per share for the period last year.

Sibanye said its earnings were impacted by the impairment of its two US mines, which predominantly produce palladium. The US operations produced 238,139 ounces of palladium and platinum in the first half of 2024.

The writedown was “primarily due to lower medium- to long-term forecast consensus palladium price assumptions that resulted in a decrease in expected future net cash flows”, Sibanye said in a trading statement.

There had been a 5% to 8% reduction in medium to long-term market consensus palladium price forecasts assumed for valuation purposes, Sibanye said.

The long-term prospects of PGMs have dimmed as the auto sector switches its focus to electric vehicles.

The price of palladium, which along with other platinum group metals (PGMs) is used in vehicle exhaust systems to curb emissions, fell 40% in 2023 and is down 10% this year.

Sibanye said in the half year it saw a 30% decline in the average dollar price for its US metal and a 28% decline in the rand basket price for its southern African PGMs, significantly reducing revenue.

In 2023, Sibanye reported a $2 billion loss after taking $2.6 billion impairments at its US palladium mines, a nickel operation in France and a gold mine in South Africa.

Sibanye’s peers Impala Platinum and Northam Platinum have recently raised concerns about the country’s platinum industry’s long-term prospects due to the metal price slump.

Sibanye will release its financial results on Sept 12.

($1 = 17.8435 rand)

(By Nelson Banya; Editing by Jason Neely)

Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd. said profit fell almost 30% in the last fiscal year as lower prices countered higher production at the South African miner.

Northam – a smaller rival to Anglo American Platinum Ltd., Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. and Sibanye Stillwater Ltd. – said the average price received for platinum-group metals declined sharply during the period, including a 38% drop for palladium and a 61% slump for rhodium.

Platinum miners in South Africa – the largest producer of the metal – have been cutting costs and shelving expansion projects after the industry flipped from a boom in the early part of the decade to a slump as prices fell. Unlike the three bigger firms, which have scrapped thousands of jobs, Northam marginally increased its workforce last year as it is ramping up annual output of platinum-group metals from its three mines toward 1 million ounces.

Consistent production growth “continues to underpin our defensive position and resilience in the face of the current soft metal price environment,” Northam said. PGM output rose 10% last year to 893,000 ounces.

The PGM industry in South Africa, however, “is not sustainable” at current prices, with production from the country’s “aged and underinvested” mines set to decline in the coming years, Northam chief executive officer Paul Dunne said after the company released its results. Impala CEO Nico Muller made similar remarks a day earlier, saying it’s “highly improbable” there will be investment in new assets.

Johannesburg-based Northam posted earnings of 1.8 billion rand ($101.3 million) in the 12 months through June, down from 2.6 billion rand the previous year, according to a statement released on Friday. The decline would have been sharper, but profit in fiscal 2023 was cut by impairments of 6.8 billion rand on one of the firm’s mines and its investment in Royal Bafokeng Platinum Ltd., which was part of an abortive takeover bid.

Northam declined over 9% in Johannesburg trading.

Revenue fell 22%, but the contribution of chrome — extracted as a byproduct of platinum mining — increased significantly to a tenth of total sales. Profit before some one-time items – known as headline earnings – fell almost 82% to 1.7 billion rand.

Devices used to curb emissions from gasoline and diesel vehicles are a major source of PGM demand. Producers of the metals are focused on finding alternative long-term applications for PGMs as electric vehicles increase their market share.

(By William Clowes)

Johannesburg-based Impala said projects it had halted in South Africa and Zimbabwe were unlikely to be revived due to the growing market for electric vehicles – which don’t need platinum-group catalysts in their engines.

“It’s highly improbable that you’re going to see material investment in new PGMs (platinum group metals) production in South Africa,” Muller said on a media call.

Impala, which has mines in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Canada, is curbing new investment after headline earnings in the year through June 30 plunged 87% to 2.4 billion rand ($135.4 million).

Impala has also shortened the life of its Canadian palladium operations due to a slump in prices and Muller said investors were balking at spending on new mines, which take as many as 20 years to build.

Platinum, of which South Africa is the world’s top supplier, and palladium prices will continue to hover below $1,000 an ounce this year due to overstocking, according to a Reuters poll.

Platinum was trading around $940.85 an ounce and palladium at $946.16 on Thursday.

Platinum miners are bound by antitrust rules which prohibit them from voluntarily cutting output to stimulate prices, Muller said.

“We are not (as an industry) in a position where we can sit around a cigar table and agree to cut production in order to rebalance the market,” the CEO said. “That is the dilemma we sit with.”

The industry’s plight also reflects “the long-term state of electrification (of vehicles)”, Muller said.

“I’m not convinced that any shareholder or company is going to see a clear and attractive return for development in new assets,” he added.

Impala will place its Two Rivers project on “care and maintenance” after halting a planned 5.7 billion rand investment, in addition to spending curbs at the North Hill project in Zimbabwe where a $134 million investment was initially planned, and job cuts in South Africa.

($1 = 17.7210 rand)

(By Nelson Banya and Felix Njini; Editing by Helen Popper and David Holmes)

The group had previously said it was seeking to raise more than $500 million through metals prepayment deals to shore up its balance sheet after earnings plunged due to the PGM price collapse.

Metals prepayment arrangements allow miners to sell their future production in return for an upfront cash payment.

The metals producer’s profits tumbled $2 billion last year due to lower prices and after it wrote down $2.6 billion in the carrying value of its US palladium mines, a nickel operation in France and a gold mine in South Africa.

Sibanye Stillwater CEO Neal Froneman said in a statement on Wednesday the prepayment deal was a “proactive, strategic financing alternative that improves the group’s liquidity and balance sheet”.

Sibanye said it would deliver 1,497 kg of gold in equal monthly tranches from October 2024 to November 2026 in return for the prepaid cash. The cash will help to repay the group’s loans, it said.

The miner said it had also reached an agreement to refinance and increase its 5.5 billion rand revolving credit facility with South African lenders, which was due to mature in November 2024.

Refinancing allows a borrower to replace an existing debt obligation with a new one on more favourable terms.

The refinanced 6 billion rand facility will now mature in August 2027, with an option to extend it by a further two years, Sibanye said.

($1 = 17.8542 rand)

(By Nelson Banya; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

The sale is part of a comprehensive sweeping restructuring program triggered by a failed takeover attempt by its larger rival BHP (ASX, LON, NYSE: BHP). The explosion and subsequent fire at the company’s Grosvenor coal mine in Queensland rose questions about the process. Anglo continued as planned, enlisting the services of three top banks in July to assist in the sale.

Bids will be open for Anglo’s Grosvenor and Moranbah North mines, as well as three smaller mines in Queensland, according to two unnamed sources cited by Reuters.

Analysts predict that potential bidders may include Glencore (LON: GLEN), already a major supplier of Australian coal, Indonesian companies and Yancoal (ASX: YAL), which operates several coal mines in the country. 

Glencore recently abandoned plans to spin off its coal unit following discussions with shareholders, who pushed back against the move. The Swiss miner and commodities trader’s business has long been centred around the fossil fuel, and the prospect of abandoning it seemed improbable for a company built on the commodity.

Following the announcement, chief executive Gary Nagle said the company would even consider buying more steelmaking coal assets, given they were “fair priced” and located in “the right place”.

A group of Indonesian companies led by Golden Energy and Resources is reportedly considering making an offer. Delta Dunia Group, a Jakarta-listed company that operates the BUMA coal mining services business in Australia, announced in July its intention to expand through acquisitions.

China-backed Yancoal is another strong candidate to bid for Anglo’s assets. The miner said on Monday it was on the hunt for metallurgical coal deals in Australia, backed by A$1.5 billion ($1bn) in available funds. If successful, the move would position Yancoal as one of the nation’s top producers, capitalizing on rising demand across Asia.

Geologic hydrogen refers to hydrogen gas that occurs naturally within the Earth’s crust, generated through natural processes such as the reaction of water with certain types of iron-rich rocks. The company’s Stillwater West project is situated within the iconic Stillwater mining district, which hosts layered ultramafic rocks that provide favorable settings for geologic hydrogen accumulation.

The Berkeley Lab has secured funding in the amount of $2 million from the US Department of Energy via the Advanced Research Projects Agency program (ARPA-E) for this study.

The research, known as Cyclic Injection for Commercial Seismic-Safe Geologic H2 Production (CyclicGeoH2)” project, will be led by Berkeley Lab research scientist Dr. Mengsu Hu in collaboration with the University of California at Berkeley and the University of Texas at Austin.

Dr. Hu’s research focuses on multiscale numerical modeling and machine learning for analyzing coupled thermal-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes from fundamental Earth science to subsurface energy geoscience applications.

For this study, the research team is developing technologies for geologic hydrogen production that address the challenge of extracting hydrogen both safely and economically at commercial scale. It involves the use of adaptive controls of fracture creation followed by serpentinization reactions to generate and subsequently extract hydrogen to a wellhead.

Using rock samples from the Stillwater igneous complex, the team is applying an integrated approach for developing and testing novel technology that includes laboratory tests, field characterization and multiscale numerical modeling. The research effort in the project will benefit from studies conducted by other projects supported by ARPA-E that are focusing on the enhancement of the rate of geologic hydrogen generation.

“We are excited for our Stillwater West project to be selected for this cutting-edge work in the burgeoning field of geologic hydrogen generation,” stated Michael Rowley, Stillwater Critical’s CEO. “We look forward to continued work with Dr. Hu’s team given our shared vision of securing domestic supply of the critical minerals so urgently needed by the US while also potentially generating clean energy in the form of hydrogen based on the rare geology of the Stillwater igneous complex.”

Its Stillwater project currently contains five Platreef-style nickel and copper sulphide deposits hosting a total of 1.6 billion pounds of nickel, copper and cobalt, and 3.8 million ounces of palladium, platinum, rhodium and gold.

“With the largest nickel resource in an active US mining district and a wealth of other minerals listed as critical by the US government, Stillwater Critical Minerals is exceptionally well-positioned to play a significant role in achieving these goals as we continue to advance Stillwater West as a large-scale, low-carbon source of at least nine minerals listed as critical,” he added.

One such practice investors should watch out for is ‘grade smearing.’ That’s when companies stretch high-grade results over larger intervals to create the illusion of more substantial findings, the economic geologist and adviser to the Exploration Insights newsletter explained.

“Most of what we do is try and find the fatal flaw as soon as possible,” Cook said last month during the Rule Symposium in Boca Raton, Fla. “We know most of these companies aren’t going to find anything economic.”

Cook also discusses the worrying trend of traditional mining investors retreating and younger investors turning to tech stocks, leaving the sector underfunded.

Watch the full interview with The Northern Miner’s western editor, Henry Lazenby.