Importers of lithium, graphite and cobalt for use in manufacturing in the UK will be granted access to UK Export Finance, a state body that usually helps British exporters and their buyers with financing and insurance, people familiar with the matter said. They will only be eligible for the support if they hold long-term contracts with UK exporters, a move that will benefit the defense, aerospace, electric vehicle and renewable energy industries, they said, asking not to be named discussing measures to be announced in the Oct. 30 budget.

Western countries in recent years have been stepping up efforts to secure supplies of critical minerals that are crucial to advanced manufacturing but are currently dominated by China. Reeves’s initiative next week will make it easier for UKEF to secure finance contracts for suppliers in Commonwealth countries who have large mineral deposits, such as Australia, the people said. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is holding a series of bilateral meetings on trade and economic growth at the Commonwealth heads of government meeting in Samoa this week.

Reeves is preparing to unveil a package of tax rises and further borrowing in Labour’s first budget in 14 years. She’s seeking to raise some £40 billion ($52 billion) to help fund party priorities like the National Health Service and to plug a fiscal void that she blames on her Conservative predecessors. Reeves has also been debating changing the measure of debt used to inform the country’s fiscal rules, freeing up as much as an extra £50 billion of government spending on infrastructure.

While the government didn’t specify which companies it expects the move on export finance to benefit, manufacturers such as jet engine maker Rolls Royce Holdings Plc are significant users of imported metals, and Indian firm Tata Motors Ltd. is building a battery plant in southwest England that will require lithium supplies.

Labour is also relying on attracting on an influx of private investment into the UK to get the economy firing and spur the growth needed to generate more tax income. The government said it drummed up £63 billion at its international investment summit earlier this month, though some of that had previously been committed.

On Friday in Samoa, Starmer unveiled an additional £1 billion investment in the UK property market by Aware Super, an Australian fund and Delancey Real Estate. AustralianSuper, the country’s biggest pension fund, is also preparing to bolster its international investment team in London, expecting to manage £250 billion from its London office by 2035, the UK government said in a statement.

Starmer hosted a business meeting with AustralianSuper chief executive Paul Schroder, Bank of America chair Brian Moynihan and Lloyd’s of London CEO John Neal in Samoa on Thursday.

(By Ellen Milligan)

The Canadian explorer and developer, which received £25 million ($33m) from Vision Blue in 2022, said it would use the fresh funding on general operating and corporate purposes.

“This funding signals Vision Blue’s continued support for Cornish Metals and our plans to bring tin mining back to Cornwall through the restart of South Crofty, “ chief executive officer Don Turvey said. “We plan to generate value by unlocking the project’s potential as a long-term supplier of tin needed for electrical applications in the UK and Europe.”

Now part of the UK’s critical metals list, tin is experiencing a revival. Cornish Metals has spent the last eight years working on reopening the past-producing South Crofty tin mine. The operation was shut in 1998, following more than 400 years of almost continuous production.

South Crofty was the last tin mine in Europe when it closed. Several companies attempted to revive the flooded mines between 2001 and 2013, but due to persistent poor market conditions, the assets were put into administration in 2013.

The new South Crofty is expected to produce 49,310 tonnes of tin metal in concentrate over its productive life, peaking at over 5,000 tonnes in year four. 

The goal is achieving first tin production in 2026, as Cornish Metals has already obtained permission for underground mining until 2071, and has also secured the environmental permit to dewater the mine.

Laser vision

Vision Blue Resources’ (VBR) main strategy is acquiring stakes in assets linked to electric vehicles (EVs) and grid storage growth. 

The company is led by mining veteran Mick Davis, who led Xstrata from a $500 million business in the early part of the last decade to an operation so big that — at one point — it made a takeover offer for Anglo American (LON: AAL).

In 2012, he sold Xstrata to Glencore (LON: GLEN) and ventured into setting up X2 Resources, a mining fund that was unable to score any deals in the three years after its launch.

Davis did not get discouraged by that failure. In 2019, he co-founded Niron Metals, an investment vehicle involved in bringing Guinea’s Zogota iron ore deposit into production.

Seeking to seize the opportunity presented by the increasing need for battery metals, which include a host of materials from lithium to nickel, cobalt and copper, Davis launched VBR in December 2020.

The fund has since invested in several companies, including Canada’s NextSource Materials (TSX: NEXT), which is building a graphite mine in Madagascar.

At the end of the third quarter of 2024, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners had a combined market capitalization of $1.51 trillion, up just under $76 billion from end-June, largely on the back of gold and royalty stocks.

The total stock market valuation of the world’s biggest mining companies is up a fairly modest 8% year to end-September and despite the good run is still $240 billion below the peak hit in the second quarter of 2022.  

Ranks, value of gold stocks swell

The value of precious metals and royalty companies climbed by a combined $42 billion, or 16% during the quarter and gold counters dominate the best performing ranks. 

Were it not for the limited tradability of stock in Russia’s Polyus, which lost some ground over the last three months despite gold’s stellar performance, bullion’s effect on the Top 50 would have been even more pronounced. 

Canada’s Alamos Gold joins the top 50 for the first time with a more than 31% jump in value, lifting it six places to number 48 with a valuation of $8.2 billion at the end of the quarter while the second quarter’s newcomer Pan American Silver (following its absorption of Yamana Gold) hangs on at no 50.

Alamos Gold last month raised its production guidance by over 20% for 2025-2026 with the inclusion of the Magino mine and its integration with its Island Gold operation in Ontario. The Toronto- based miner has long term ambitions to grow its production base to 900,000 ounces per year.

Uzbekistan is readying an IPO for Navoi Mining and Metallurgy Combinat – the world’s fourth largest gold mining company and significant uranium producer in 2025. NMMC debuted a $1 billion bond offering last week, marking the first global debt market issuance from a gold mining company since June 2023.

Navoi should easily join the ranks of gold producers in the top 50 thanks to ownership of the world’s largest gold mine, Muruntau, and annual production of 2.9 million ounces at grades and per ounce extraction costs the envy of the sector.  

The Muruntau open pit mine southwest of the Kyzylkum desert, originally developed during the Soviet era as a source of uranium, has estimated reserves of around 130 million ounces of gold. 

Goldilocks copper

Copper specialists, and those with fat gold credits, have gained a combined 36% year to date as the copper price continues to flirt with the $10,000 a tonne level, but momentum slowed dramatically during Q3 with the group contributing only $7.2 billion in added market worth during the quarter. 

Amman Mineral’s fierce rally also came to an abrupt halt during the quarter with the counter losing 18% over the three months and coming close to falling out of the top 10.

Investors who bought Amman, owner of the world’s third largest mine worldwide in terms of copper equivalent, at the IPO price in Jakarta a year ago, are still enjoying 400% gains since then, however. 

Southern Copper’s position as the world’s third most valuable mining stock seems entrenched after a double digit percentage gain in Q3 compared to a much more sedate performance by Freeport-McMoRan, which now has to gain a full $20 billion in market cap to haul in its Mexico City-based rival.

Light on lithium 

Rio Tinto’s vote of confidence in the long term future of the lithium sector (and its own ability to make M&A work) dominated the news at the start of the December-quarter but it’s worth noting that Arcadium’s more than 90% surge since the all-cash offer was first announced is not enough for the stock to enter the rankings.

Three lithium counters exited the rankings this year, Australia’s Pilbara Minerals and Mineral Resources and China’s Tianqi Lithium as the deep slump in prices for the battery metal continues to take its toll.  

Last quarter’s no 50, Ganfeng Lithium jumps six places after being swept up in the stimulus-induced rally on Chinese stock markets at the end of the quarter, while Tianqi’s performance so far in October should see it reenter the Top 50 in due course. 

Ganfeng was barely holding on at position 50 at end-June and with gold price momentum continuing and two gold mining companies waiting in the winds – Yintai and Alamos – only three lithium counters in the top 50 may be a reality for some time to come. 

After peaking in the second quarter of 2022 with a combined value of nearly $120 billion, the remaining lithium stocks’ market value has now shrunk to $34 billion.  

Iron ore ground down

Despite a modest improvement during the quarter, the mining industry’s traditional big 5 – BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Vale and Anglo American – remain in the red for 2024, losing $24 billion since the start of the year. 

The big 5 diversifieds now make up 29% of the total index, down from a height of 38% at the end of 2022.  

Iron ore’s less than rosy outlook – the late boost China’s recent stimulus package notwithstanding – saw Fortescue once again feature on the biggest losers list and Cleveland Cliffs exit the ranking with the US iron ore miner’s 37% decline this year exacerbated by its inability to capitalize on the blocking of the Nippon-US Steel tie up. 

Iron ore’s representation in the top 50 have diminished in the last couple of years – Brazil’s CSN Mineração dropped out during Q1 this year while Anglo-controlled and separately-listed Kumba Iron Ore has lost touch with the top tier after a 40% fall year to date.

Click on image for full size table.

NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, stock exchange data, company reports. Share data from primary-listed exchange at close Oct 4, 2024 close of trading converted to US$ where applicable. Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.  

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining (the gold and uranium giant may list later this year), Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like China’s CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining will continue to represent a small portion of its valuation.  

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.

After buying mining assets around the world over the past two decades to secure metals needed for industrialization and more recently to meet its carbon emissions targets, China now wants a bigger say in how prices of those metals are determined.

But it has lost market share in metals futures trading and needs to persuade international investors to use the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE), according to interviews with more than 10 brokers, traders, analysts, risk managers and consultants with direct knowledge of ShFE’s plans.

If successful, the push would help give Shanghai’s contracts benchmark status and upend the system for reference prices of industrial metals in place since 1877 when the London Metal Exchange (LME) started life above a hat shop in London.

ShFE benchmarks would eliminate the need for Chinese firms to link their physical contracts to LME prices and create a need for foreigners to trade on ShFE to influence reference prices in their contracts, shifting market sway from the west to China.

In recent meetings, the exchange told industry players the plan is high on its agenda and was likely to be put in place soon, but it did not discuss deadlines, two people said.

ShFE did not respond to requests for comment or to questions on timelines, amounts available to invest in this project, the challenges it faces or how success would be measured.

However, state media in June reported Wang Fenghai, general manager at ShFE, as saying: “Only through opening up can we draw in foreign investors, participate in the process of ShFE’s price establishment, therefore enhance price influence.”

Wang added that cross-border delivery capability was an area ShFE would focus on in terms of attracting global participation.

In a key step, the exchange has been looking to line up warehouses outside China to store metal delivered for copper contracts that were launched on its International Energy Exchange (INE) for foreigners in 2020.

ShFE has told industry stakeholders it intends to expand soon into international metals storage, two other sources with direct knowledge said, bidding to rival the LME’s global network of more than 450 registered warehouses that hold thousands of tons of aluminum, copper and other metals.

“They (ShFE) have a plan, they are coming out, they will list warehouses outside China, … the government wants this to happen,” one source familiar with the exchange’s thinking said.

While the metals industry has known since last year that ShFE plans to line up warehouses offshore, starting in Singapore, its latest comments to foreign firms suggest it is closer than ever to going ahead.

“A real price people want to use needs warehouse stocks the world over,” a source at a consultancy with knowledge of ShFE’s plans said.

Once ShFE makes a firm decision to offer metal storage outside China, the process of registering warehouses would be a matter of weeks if not days, as facilities already exist at ports that see large flows of metals, warehousing sources said.

ShFE will not need regulatory approvals for warehouses that can store metal deliverable against its contracts as long as they are located in free trade zones, so metal can be stored free of taxes until delivered to customers.

Singapore makes a good starting point as it is already a location for LME warehouses, which means the regulatory framework already exists.

All of the people who spoke to Reuters asked not to be named as their conversations with ShFE were private.

Rivals take market share

The Shanghai exchange faces a difficult road countering the LME, even as China consumes more than half of global supplies of copper, aluminum and zinc and produces large amounts of these metals.

“Any exchange that wants to achieve internationalization would face challenges … ShFE would face many challenges and various constraints if it aims to become a global pricing center,” Luo Xufeng, chairman of Nanhua Futures told Reuters.

Ultimately the exchange aims to list aluminum, zinc, nickel, lead and tin on the INE, sources with knowledge of ShFE’s plans said. Those metals are already traded on the LME, the world’s largest and oldest forum for metals, owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEx).

On the LME, volumes for copper, essential in construction, power systems and electrical goods, have stabilized at around 60% of copper futures globally.

But ShFE’s domestic market has lost ground to US-based COMEX, part of CME Group, since 2015, with ShFE last year accounting for around 15% of copper futures traded globally, while COMEX’s share was 22%.And in the first nine months of 2024, trading volumes on ShFE’s INE copper futures have dropped nearly 43% from the same period last year.

“The only way to increase volumes is get more international involvement in ShFE,” a metals trader with direct knowledge of the matter said, adding that China’s government was behind the project to internationalize ShFE’s contracts.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), which regulates ShFE, and the State Council, China’s cabinet, did not respond to questions from Reuters.

Meanwhile, LME is working on plans to list new contracts using ShFE prices and is set to approve the expansion of its metals warehousing network into Hong Kong before the end of this year.

LME said it intends to “deepen our collaboration with ShFE by working together in product innovation to better serve international participants in risk management and price discovery,” in response to a request for comment on its plans.

Hurdles for ShFE

ShFE’s ambition has been long in the making. When HKEx bought the London exchange in 2012 with a plan to turbo-charge revenues by expanding LME warehousing into China, ShFE told local authorities it could mimic the LME’s network and give China power and influence over global metals markets.

Some of that influence would come from more foreigners trading on ShFE having to hold yuan accounts, which would boost Beijing’s aim to gain global acceptance of its currency. Contracts on ShFE and its INE platform are priced in yuan.

“ShFE has been trying to do this for over 10 years,” said Dan Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading.

“The biggest challenge is that there are still restrictions on the conversion of yuan to dollars.”

China’s currency exchange controls that limit the amount of money companies can take out of the country at any one time, partly a measure to control currency volatility, are potential deterrents for foreign investors.

Sources also mentioned fear of Chinese authorities’ policies designed to steer commodities markets and government market interventions, such as on margin requirements – the deposits of cash or collateral clearing houses need to cover potential losses.

“They don’t like volatility. They could double, triple transaction fees and margins overnight if they want. It makes people nervous,” a source familiar with the matter at a resources-focused fund said.

(By Pratima Desai, Siyi Liu and Beijing Newsroom; Editing by Veronica Brown, Tony Munroe and Sonali Paul)

Under the letter of intent signed Monday, the company said it will acquire these projects through the issuance of 10 million shares, with a total value of C$5.6 million. The stock traded at C$0.75 at market open, and by noon ET, it had gone up 4% to C$0.78 apiece for a market capitalization of C$25.5 million.

A definitive agreement for the acquisition is expected to be reached this month, Military Metals said.

The main asset highlighted is the Trojarova antimony project near Pezinok in western Slovakia, which has been extensively explored during the Soviet era. The project was previously held by Molten Metals (CSE: MOLT), which published a historical resource of 415,000 tonnes grading 0.162% antimony and 1.148 g/t gold based on underground exploration data.

Also containing historical resources dating back to the Soviet era and worked on by Molten Metals is the Medvedi tin project. It has a calculated reserve of 863,000 tonnes grading 0.19% tin using the Soviet-style classification of mineral deposits.

While these project estimates are not yet compliant with modern standards, Military Metals said it will work to validate them with new drilling, ensuring compliance with NI 43-101 requirements.

The second antimony project, Tiennesgrund, is located in eastern Slovakia and has no published resource estimate. The project holds a 10 km fault-hosted vein system.

CEO Scott Eldridge said the new acquisition strategically positions Military Metals as a leading explorer and developer of antimony — a critical component for battery technology, advanced military systems and other industrial applications. Due to its importance and high demand, the metal is currently classified by the US, European Union and other leading economies as a critical mineral.

“The Trojarova and Tienesgrund projects offer significant potential for rapid advancement, particularly given Slovakia’s strong mining infrastructure and history. We see this as a perfect alignment with the European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act, opening the door to potential EU funding sources as we advance these projects toward production,” Eldridge said.

The new acquisition follows Military Metals’ recent acquisition of the past-producing West Gore antimony project in Nova Scotia. West Gore consists of an underground mine that operated between 1882 and 1939, extracting antimony from as many as seven mining levels. At one time, it was Canada’s most prominent antimony mine.

All mining activities in the restive region, which is rich in minerals such as gold, copper, diamond, tin, tantalum and cobalt, were suspended in July when Governor Jean-Jacques Purusi Sadiki ordered companies and operators to leave mining sites to “restore order to mining operations”.

In August, the suspension was lifted with the exception of gold extraction. A statement published by a government spokesperson said back then that consultations with operators in the industry would continue.

Following a preliminary investigation after the ban in July, more than 550 mining operators out of nearly 650 were found to be operating without proper authorizations, a provincial mines minister told Reuters in early September.

He added that more than 45 people, including two magistrates, involved in fraud and the illegal exploitation of minerals in the province had been arrested.

“Today, we’re opening up mining activities throughout the region,” governor Sadiki told mining operators during a meeting on Monday.

He added that a team would be dispatched to carry out investigations into each mining company to prevent the exploitation of the local population.

“If they violate any of our commitments, we’ll shut down that company or cooperative and hit them with exemplary fines,” the governor warned.

Authorities in South Kivu province have previously accused several firms of illegal activities, including mining without permits, dumping chemicals into water sources and underpaying workers.

(By Yassin Kombi, Crispin Kyala and Anait Miridzhanian; Editing by Mark Potter)

The agreement will support policy dialogue, sharing of technical knowledge and expertise and cover areas like supply chain resilience, sustainable upstream and downstream processing, and mineral criticality, it said in a statement, which did not prove specific details.

The partnership “puts both countries as key players in the critical minerals supply chain,” Britain’s development minister Anneliese Dodds said in the statement after signing the deal with Indonesia’s energy minister.

Indonesia has rich deposits of tin, copper and bauxite, among others, and is the world’s largest source of nickel ore. It is seeking to extract more value from the mineral by attracting investment into its processing and in the manufacturing of electric vehicle batteries.

The announcement comes two months after the United States said it had approached Indonesia about joining a multinational critical mineral partnership aimed at accelerating development of sustainable critical minerals supply chains.

Indonesia has massively expanded its nickel processing sector since it banned exports of unprocessed ore in 2020, but environmentalists have blamed the industry for deforestation, and water and air pollution caused by smelters.

Earlier on Wednesday, Dodds told Reuters that Britain’s agreement with Indonesia was intended to create local jobs and protect the environment, including from damage created by mining, calling the partnership “incredibly important”.

(By Stanley Widianto; Editing by Martin Petty)

The visible part of the massive crater, Cornwall Live reported, leads to a black hole at one end of the crevice, which could potentially be the start of the mine shaft, extending deep underground.

“Given Cornwall’s rich mining history, it’s not uncommon to discover unmapped mining features during construction,” a spokesperson for the Cornwall Council told the paper. 

“We have recently uncovered two such features along the route, and investigations are underway to determine the best course of remediation,” the person said.

Tin mining in Cornwall can be traced back to around 2100 BC. This was during England’s Bronze Age, in which demand for copper and tin surged.

By the 19th century, Cornwall was the world’s top producer of tin, copper and other base metals, accounting for two-thirds of the market.

Now part of the UK’s critical metals list, tin is experiencing a revival. Canada’s Cornish Metals (LON, TSX-V: CUSN) is working on reopening the past-producing South Crofty tin mine, which was shut in 1998 following more than 400 years of almost continuous production.

It was the last tin mine in Europe when it closed. Several companies attempted to revive the flooded mines between 2001 and 2013, but due to persistent poor market conditions, the assets were put into administration in 2013.

The new South Crofty is expected to produce 49,310 tonnes of tin metal in concentrate over its productive life, peaking at over 5,000 tonnes in year four. 

The goal is achieving first tin production by 2027, as Cornish Metals has already obtained permission for underground mining until 2071, and has also secured the environmental permit to dewater the mine.

While high raw material and refined tin stocks have so far insulated the market from the full impact, that’s starting to change.

When the Wa authorities, an autonomous ethnic group controlling most of Myanmar’s tin resources, ordered a total suspension of all mining and processing activities in August 2023, most expected the supply hit to last only a few months.

Other smaller mines in Wa territory have since been allowed to reopen. Authorities have also permitted the export of above-ground tin stocks from Man Maw but production remains suspended.

While tin concentrates continue to flow across the border to feed China’s smelters, volumes have fallen sharply in recent months, highlighting the lack of activity at the biggest mine.

Dark producer

The Wa State mines are a statistical black hole in global tin supply data. There are no official production statistics and output can only be inferred from the amount of raw material passing through Chinese customs.

The International Tin Association estimates Myanmar produced around 40,000 metric tons of contained tin in 2022, with Man Maw accounting for around 70% of that.

That makes the Wa State the world’s third largest tin producer after China and Indonesia, with Man Maw itself representing 7-8% of global mine supply.

The Wa authorities said the suspension of activities was needed to allow an audit of the tin sector, which has grown exponentially from what began as informal artisanal operations at the start of the last decade.

In this respect the Wa State is no different from any other resource-rich country looking to take tighter control of their assets.

What’s unclear is why the audit has taken so long.

Reduced flows

The impact of the year-long closure is becoming increasingly visible in China’s import flows.

China imported 100,000 tons of Myanmar tin concentrates in the 10 months after the start of the audit in August 2023, compared with 173,000 tons in the prior 10-month period.

Trade flows between the two countries slowed to just 11,300 tons in the second quarter of this year from 43,600 tons in the first quarter, suggesting a depletion of above-surface stocks.

Chinese producers have had only limited success in finding alternative sources with increased imports from Australia, Bolivia and Nigeria not enough to plug the gap.

Total tin raw material imports fell by 26% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2024, LSEG data shows.

Chinese smelters have begun adjusting maintenance schedules and tweaking production plans to compensate.

Yunnan Tin, the world’s largest refined tin producer, shut its Geiju smelter for 45 days of maintenance at the end of August.

Others in the provinces of Yunnan and Jiangxi have been reducing output due to a shortage of feed, according to local data provider Shanghai Metals Market.

Stock slide

The suspension of tin mining was flagged by the Wa authorities in April 2023, allowing China’s tin sector to build up stocks.

Imports of refined tin accelerated over the fourth quarter of 2023 and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks rose to an all-time high of 17,818 tons in May.

Registered exchange inventory has been sliding ever since and stands at 9,499 tons. Given domestic production is being constrained by growing raw material shortages, the downtrend is likely to continue for the next few months at least.

LME tin stocks have fallen by 39% to 4,725 tons since the start of the year, although as of the end of July there were another 2,207 tons of shadow stocks sitting in LME warehouses.

The Western supply chain has been more affected by slower Indonesian shipments than by the Man Maw situation. Indonesian exports fell by 44% year-on-year to 24,600 tons in the January-August period due to early-year permitting delays.

Risk premium

The tin market has been lucky with the timing of Man Maw’s suspension.

Half of global usage is in the form of solder for circuit-boards, meaning demand is highly sensitive to electronic goods sales.

Semi-conductor sales, a useful proxy for tin solder demand, are only now emerging from a prolonged two-year slump, which helps explain why global tin stocks were so high in the first half of 2024.

Tin has still outperformed every other LME-traded metal by some margin. LME three-month tin was trading at $31,770 per ton on Friday, up by 25% from the start of January. The next strongest performer, copper, has year-to-date gains of just 8%.

It’s clear that the tin price contains a Man Maw risk premium and will continue to do so until the Wa authorities permit a return to normal operations.

Only the Wa leadership knows when that will be and they may be focused on other matters.

Although the United Wa State Army is not directly involved in the ongoing civil war raging across Myanmar, Man Maw may not be top of the priority list.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Alexander Smith)

It took three months for Chilean copper and Malaysian tin to arrive in London when the LME was formally established in 1877. Modern ships can do the journey in a third of the time, but the LME’s anchor price remains a rolling three-month contract.

The LME also retains one of the last surviving open outcry venues – its original red-seated ring – although it now co-exists with inter-office and electronic trading.

While other commodities exchanges have adopted a standardized monthly futures trading model, the LME remains at heart an arrivals market with a bewildering array of daily, weekly and monthly prompt dates.

This complex ecosystem serves to disperse liquidity across both dates and trading venues, but many of the LME’s own members have played a part in fragmenting the marketplace.

The exchange has realized that if it is to remain a global metals trading hub in the 21st century, it needs to find a way to stop the liquidity drain.

Fragmented liquidity

The core role of any exchange is “to centralize liquidity and provide the golden source for price information”, to quote the LME’s “White Paper on Enhancing Liquidity”, released last week.

Yet only 48% of last year’s traded volumes were transacted on the LMESelect electronic platform. This is a very low ratio by comparison with most other exchanges, which capture more than 95% of trades on a central electronic platform.

Moreover, while the rolling three-month date provides a liquidity point for electronic trading, that’s not reflected in the distribution of open interest.

Around 75% of total open interest sits on the monthly third-Wednesday prompt dates even though only 2% of these trades are currently transacted through the central electronic system.

Quite evidently, a lot of trading activity is bypassing the LME’s centralized dealing system to the detriment of price competition and transparency.

Dark pools

To some extent this has always been a problem.

The complexity of the LME’s date structure requires the mediating skills of exchange members, whether it be to adjust a trade from the rolling three-month date to a monthly prompt or to structure an averaging trade for monthly price hedgers.

That’s the essence of the inter-office section of the market.

LME members have always sought to offset such customer trades on their own trading books, meaning what’s executed on exchange is a net fraction of the actual order flow.

What’s changed in the last decade, however, is the proliferation of proprietary member trading systems. The traditional intermediary function has been industrialized.

The re-routing of liquidity from the exchange to the inter-office market has been compounded by the growing number of users opting for an over-the-counter trading relationship with LME members.

The European Market Infrastructure Regulation adopted in 2012 was intended to drive more OTC business onto exchanges. But it has backfired spectacularly when it comes to the LME.

The stricter rules on collateral have driven many smaller industrial users of the LME to OTC relationships with banks offering credit lines as part of the brokerage package.

Together with proprietary price-streaming platforms, the effect has been to create multiple dark pools of liquidity sitting close to, but not on, exchange.

The regulatory vulnerabilities created by this fragmentation were highlighted by the 2022 nickel crisis, when the LME lacked a clear understanding of positions that sprawled across both exchange and OTC platforms operated by multiple members.

Block trade thresholds

The primary goal of the LME’s package of proposals in the White Paper “is to increase liquidity in the central electronic venue which will ultimately improve the bid-offer spread and support better execution for end clients”.

There are many components to the LME’s liquidity booster plan, but the core is a proposal to introduce block trade thresholds.

Block trades are normally large-scale transactions negotiated outside of the electronic order book before being registered with the exchange.

Thresholds are already standard practice in other exchanges and block trades typically account for less than 5% of traded volumes in peer markets, the LME noted.

On the London exchange, by contrast, more than half of the exchange’s volumes are conducted in the inter-office market, where there are no caps.

The LME is proposing a threshold of 10 lots for its core base metals contracts, excluding tin. Any trade below that size will be required to be executed electronically.

Daily prompts and cash date trading will be excluded in a nod to the exchange’s industrial users seeking to lock in an average monthly price to match their physical pricing.

Fear of missing out

As ever with the LME, reform will be a slow process. The exchange is targeting the second half of next year to introduce any changes.

Members will likely fight a rearguard action, arguing over the devilish details.

But the LME is right to try to halt this growing fragmentation, if it wants to grab a share of the renewed investor interest in industrial metals such as aluminum, copper and nickel that are critical for decarbonization.

CME Group has up to now reaped most of the rewards from the heightened investor appetite for all things metallic.

The US exchange has successfully launched new contracts for battery metals lithium and cobalt, while also rolling out micro and weekly options products to enhance its benchmark copper contract.

The LME, by contrast, is currently too complex a trading landscape for many new investors. The fact that half of the exchange’s trades are currently not visible on what is supposed to the central trading venue doesn’t help.

If the LME is to retain its position as price setter for the world’s metals trade, it’s time to evolve from its 19th century business model.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Jan Harvey)

The deal, SQM’s first African partnership, will leverage the lithium major’s technical and financial strengths, aiming to accelerate the development of the project, located about 35 km from Andrada’s flagship Uis tin mine. 

The agreement could see SQM secure a 50% stake in Grace Simba Investments (GSI), Andrada’s unit that holds the Lithium Ridge licence.

SQM will pay $2 million upfront, followed by $20 million in exploration expenditure over three years for a 40% stake in GSI. An additional 10% would be earned by funding a definitive feasibility study (DFS).

Andrada Mining, which will remain the project’s operator, will also receive a success fee if the lithium resource exceeds 40 million tonnes.

“This partnership solidifies our belief in the Lithium Ridge asset as a potential world-class resource and further establishes Andrada as a multi-asset, polymetallic explorer and miner,” chief executive Anthony Viljoen said in the statement.

“The introduction of a substantial player in the global lithium market will also place Namibia at the forefront of the African lithium development trajectory and unlock value for the Namibian mining industry,” Viljoen noted.

Andrada Mining operates in the lithium rich Erongo Region of Namibia and aims to develop a vertically integrated industry within the country, in addition to its established tin and tantalum production from its Uis mine. The licence covers an area of about 19,700 hectares which has significant by-product potential for lithium and tantalum production. 

Shares in Andrada shot up on the news and were trading almost 19% higher at 3.76p each in London mid-afternoon. That leaves the company with a market capitalization of £62 million ($81m).

The San Rafael mine in Peru, which is one of the world’s largest underground mines and the richest in ore-grade tin, according to the company. Today it produces 12% of the world’s tin and creates over 2,000 jobs in the region.  

The short film describes elements of the mine, including safety, a minimized impact on the environment, social responsibility, productivity and efficiency and usage of modern technologies for more sustainability, transparency and maximized output. Each part of the video is supported with comments from Minsur’s experts. 

Tin is an important mineral for the future of energy and electrification. The largest use of tin is in soldering, which is essential for the electronics industry, production of EVs and other key infrastructure.

However, tin mining, as well as mining of other critical minerals, is sometimes associated with environmental risks and human rights violations. An example of this provided in the video is tin from Banka Island, Indonesia, used in iPhones that were produced involving child labor.  

Starting in 2019, Minsur and Minespider implemented the first fully traceable tin production with Minespider’s Digital Product Passports, scaling in 2023 to ensure tin traceability for all their output. Minsur’s direct and indirect customers worldwide can verify that the tin used in their products comes from this responsible source in Peru. 

Watch the video here:

— 

The price of tin ended August at $32,500/t and so far this year is averaging just under $30,000 after the Man Maw mine, accounting for almost all of Myanmar’s tin supply, failed to restart operations despite the August 2023 ban instituted by the Wa militia controlling the area being lifted for all other mining operations at the beginning of the year. 

Tin was also boosted by significant disruption to Indonesian exports during the first half of the year, after delays in government approvals of mining companies’ annual work plans. Refined tin exports from Indonesia were down 54% year on year in H1 2024. 

Myanmar is the world’s no. 3 tin producer while Indonesia is the largest exporter of the metal. BMI expects the situation to stabilise and Indonesia’s tin exports to get back on track over the coming months.

On the demand side things are also picking up. BMI points out a pickup in global semiconductor sales from Taiwan, continued Chinese investment in its chip manufacturing capacity and renewed focus in Japan to bolster the country’s domestic manufacturing. Falling exchange inventories also favour a rosy outlook.

Further out, BMI expects tin prices “to remain on a firm uptrend in the coming decade” reaching $45,000 by 2033, a level more than double the 2016 to 2020 average of $18,729. BMI expects the market will enter a deficit from 2028 onwards: 

“On the supply side, a thin pipeline of tin mining projects will tighten the tin concentrate market, leading to increased competition among smelters and constrained ore feed for refined output growth. 

“On the demand side, the global use of tin will increase rapidly through the metal’s use in electronics (especially as electric vehicles increasingly contain greater amounts of electronics in their body) and solar panels (in photovoltaic cells), cementing tin’s status as a commodity of the future.”

Gold, tin ore cassiterite and hi-tech mineral coltan from the eastern province are mostly mined by so-called “artisanal” miners using rudimentary means.

Congo’s gold production is systematically underreported, and tons of the precious metal are smuggled into global supply chains through its eastern neighbours.

Governor Jean-Jacques Purusi Sadiki in July suspended all mining activities in the restive region and ordered companies and operators to leave mining sites.

He said at the time the decision was taken due to “disorder caused by the mining operators”, without elaborating.

After a meeting with mining operators it was decided to lift the suspension, a statement published by a government spokesperson said.

The statement urged cooperatives, mining companies and gold-buying outlets to sort out their situation with the tax authorities, adding that consultations with players in the industry will continue.

“The aim is to transform the mining sector into a genuine lever for stability, wealth creation for all and the socio-economic development of South Kivu province,” it added.

(By Crispin Kyala, Ange Kasongo and Anait Miridzhanian; Editing by Jason Neely, Tomasz Janowski and Jan Harvey)

The move follows the company’s recent sale of the Nickel King property in Canada’s Northwest Territories, and highlights Cornish Metals’ priority and focus on advancing its flagship South Crofty tin project in the UK.

Mactung, which has a 4% net smelter return (NSR) royalty, is an advanced-stage exploration project on the border of Yukon and Northwest Territories. The asset is owned by Fireweed Metals Corp, a Lundin Group company.

The Cantung tungsten project, located in the western part of the Northwest Territories, was in operation on and off from 1962 until its closure in 2015. The Cantung royalty represents a 1% NSR royalty.

“The addition of tungsten to the portfolio offers exposure to one of the most economically important critical minerals in the EU, US and Canada through a royalty on one of the largest, high-grade deposits in the world outside of China,” Frederick Bell, CEO of Elemental Altus, said in a separate statement. 

Elemental noted it would enter into an agreement with Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, TECK.B)(NYSE: TECK) as it takes over the responsibility of paying a C$1.5 million deferred consideration. This payment will be triggered by either a development decision at Mactung or the resumption of commercial production at Cantung, whichever comes first. 

The agreement with Teck is a requirement for Cornish Metals’ sale to be finalized.

Second life

Cornish Metals has been working on bringing the past-producing South Crofty tin mine back to life since 2016.

The former operation has been shut since 1998 following more than 400 years of almost continuous production. It was the last tin mine in Europe when it closed. Several companies attempted to revive the flooded mines between 2001 and 2013, but due to persistent poor market conditions the assets were put into administration in 2013.

As part of Cornish Metals’ plans to reopen the historic mine, the company has said it would build new processing facilities and all the necessary site infrastructure. It has already obtained permission for underground mining until 2071 and an environmental permit to dewater the mine.

The Vancouver-based miner is eyeing first production in 2027, with an estimated annual output of 4,700 tonnes of tin in years two through six, which is equivalent to 1.6% of global mined tin.

Tin is on the UK’s critical metals list and its importance has also been recognized by other European Union governments, as well as the US and China.

The system, known as SIMBARA, was first implemented in 2022 to track coal, with a plan to widen its use to other minerals.

Indonesia is the world’s biggest exporter of coal. It is the top global producer of nickel, and one of the largest producers of tin.

Speaking at the launch, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the system had improved governance in the coal sector, including by forcing companies to pay liabilities to the state, and she hoped to replicate this with nickel and tin.

For coal, the system monitors compliance on documentation of mining quotas, known as RKAB, all the way to export papers, flows of funds, logistics, the people involved, as well as the goods, Sri Mulyani said.

A senior government official told Reuters last week that for tin and nickel, the system will first track transportations, including inter-island shipments, from mines to domestic processing facilities and will be linked with RKAB.

“With this system, we can work tidily, consistently, firm, authoritative and without burdening companies,” Sri Mulyani said.

Improvement in compliance is expected to increase tin and nickel miners’ royalty payments by between 5 trillion to 10 trillion rupiah ($308 million-$616 million) in a year, Coordinating Minister of Maritime and Investment Affairs, Luhut Pandjaitan, said at the same event.

Nickel miners group APNI hoped SIMBARA will help prevent illegal mining and avoid oversupply such as what happened in recent years, secretary general Meidy Katrin Lengkey said.

Through SIMBARA, authorities would be alerted if a smelter produces more nickel metal than they should be able to based on the amount of the ore they bought, she said, and the smelter would be required to explain where the extra ore came from.

“We hope, after this implementation, there will truly be a control and monitoring of all the process from upstream to downstream,” she said.

The government plans to further widen the system to track gold, copper, bauxite, manganese and other resources, Mining Minister Arifin Tasrif said.

Later on, the government will also link SIMBARA to compliance in manpower and environmental rules, Luhut said, adding sales by miners can be blocked by the system if they are found breaking the rules.

($1 = 16,220.0000 rupiah)

(By Fransiska Nangoy and Gayatri Suroyo; Editing by John Mair, Michael Perry and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

Governor Jean-Jacques Purusi Sadiki said in a statement that the suspension until further notice was due to “disorder caused by the mining operators,” without elaborating.

“All companies, businesses and cooperatives are required to leave the sites and operating locations within 72 hours,” he said.

The decision will hit artisanal miners of metals such as gold and tin hard, as they are the region’s dominant producers.

“The decision is illegal and falls within the scope of abuse of power,” said Jean Pierre Okenda, an analyst on governance in Congo’s extractive sector, adding that Congo’s mines minister should urgently ask for the ban to be lifted.

In a separate statement, the governor called for a July 30 meeting with mining operators to assess the situation.

“If artisanal mining is banned, the whole province will be penalized. It’s this activity that keeps people alive and business going,” said Innocent Watuta Ibungu, a mining operator.

(By Stanis Bujakera, Crispin Kyala, Felix Njini and Bate Felix; Editing by Jason Neely and Rod Nickel)

Home to over one million artefacts, including the collection of more than 12,000 mineral samples, Royal Cornwall Museum is the caretaker of 3,500 years of mining history.  

The history of minerals and the vital role they perform in daily life is an important story. From agriculture to construction and health through to the technology we rely on, minerals underpin our modern world, and Cornwall is emerging once again as an important player in mineral extraction with the lithium industry.

“We probably don’t think about minerals very much and yet everything we do, every day relies on minerals. Humans do two things – we grow plants and nurture animals, and every other material we use comes from the minerals in the earth. Phones, gadgets, high-tech renewable energy devices, cars, trains, machinery – all rely on minerals,” Frances Wall, Professor of Applied Mineralogy at the Camborne School of Mines, said in a news release.  

Closed since January 2024 for redevelopment, the new space was designed with a vision to bring the story of the specimens to life, making geology accessible and engaging to an eclectic audience, narrating history in an immersive way.

Themes explored within the gallery include Deep Time (Geology), Minerals, Stone (Rock), Mining, Landscape, Climate and Environment, with the newly developed space divided into three narrative zones. The Orientation Zone introduces the core themes of the gallery; the North Zone is focused on the mineral samples; and the Digital Lab offers an immersive experience covering mining, minerals and rock, including mineral handling and audio stories that build on the case contents and the broader narratives.

With a unique geology, Cornwall has more varieties of minerals than anywhere else in Britain which have been mined and used for centuries, with the most important minerals for industry being tin and copper.  

“Cornwall has had a recent renaissance in its mining history. Since around 2016, we’ve had an influx of companies searching for minerals essential for applications including lithium-ion batteries and solder for electronics,” Dr. Eva Marquis, Postdoctoral Research Fellow at Camborne School of Mines, said. 

“Royal Cornwall Museum’s collection not only gives a broad understanding of the processes that formed our planet, but also how we’re using those minerals to help with our climate change ambitions.”

Congo’s trade in gold, tin and tantalum, a key mineral in portable electronics, is directly supporting armed groups involved in widespread human rights abuses and fueling one of the world’s deadliest conflicts, the experts said in the report published on Monday.

In the last year, multiple armed groups have taken over one of the world’s biggest tantalum ore sites in Congo, Rubaya, making it “ineligible for trade, according to the Group of Experts’ due diligence guidelines,” the group said. The site’s takeover presented a “serious risk” that its tin ore or tantalum could “contaminate” the supply chain from the region.

Congo and Rwanda provided more than 60% of the world’s tantalum in 2023, according to estimates by the US Geological Survey, which considers it a “critical mineral.”

The group created its due diligence guidelines for companies in 2010 at the direction of the UN Security Council as part of an international movement to stop the purchase of minerals that fund conflict in Congo.

“Violations of the group of experts’ guidelines, particularly through actions that result in the financing of conflict actors, are sanctionable by the UN Security Council,” according to Gregory Mthembu-Salter, who helped write the guidelines.

The experts’ report shows the standards, along with related conflict-minerals laws in the US and EU, have had limited effect on cleaning up the lucrative trade. The current humanitarian crisis — with millions displaced due to the fighting — is “unprecedented,” according to the report.

Much of Congo’s minerals illicitly cross the border into Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, where they’re sold into major international markets and end up in consumer goods.

The regional trade in gold, which is easily smuggled in small quantities due to its high value, is worth multiple billions of dollars and has become a key source of financing for armed groups, according to the experts.

“The exploitation and trade of gold continued to be a crucial source of enrichment for armed groups and some” members of Congo’s army in northeastern Ituri province, while armed groups controlled most of the trade in large parts of South Kivu province, the report said.

Army ‘diverted’

Congolese army “financial resources and soldiers were diverted from the fight against armed groups to the protection of private interests in the mining sector,” the group said.

More than 100 armed groups are active in eastern Congo fighting for land, resources, political representation and security.

In a statement on Monday, the US State Department said companies needed to do extra monitoring of their supply chains from Congo, Rwanda and Uganda in light of the group of experts’ report.

While firms can still source minerals from the region responsibly, “other companies appear to have eased their focus on meaningful due diligence,” the State Department said.

The US called for more engagement by companies all along the supply chain to reform and increase the transparency of “flawed” industry-led mineral tracing systems currently in place.

(By Michael J. Kavanagh)

Trinity Metals was formed in May 2022 from the merger of shareholders in three entities, including Africa’s largest tungsten mine (Nyakabingo), Rwanda’s largest tin mine (Rutongo), as well as the country’s second-largest tin mine (Musha).

Strong government and community support coupled with over $30 million in shareholder investment has led to a quadrupling in production in just two years, Trinity said.

The new funding has been earmarked for ESG specific projects underway across Trinity’s mining operations in Rwanda, including baseline studies to support updated environmental and social impact assessments; a holistic employee skills development program; the implementation of an international standard safety, health, environment and community management system; integrated development planning for all mining concessions; and legacy tailings and river rehabilitation planning.

“As Rwanda’s largest producer of conflict free and child labour free critical minerals, it is a distinct honour to be recognized by the US DFC with this Technical Assistance grant,” Trinity chairman Shawn McCormick said in a news release.

“The funding and American partnership will significantly expand our ability to operate at global industry standards as we work with Rwanda to bring its abundant resources to international markets in a safe and responsible manner,” McCormick said.

Doctor Copper, investors’ favourite barometer of industrial activity, soared to an all-time high, spurred by a ferocious squeeze on the CME contract.

Both gold and silver markets also climbed as the metals complex returned to the investor spotlight after years of neglect.

However, the base metals rally faltered over June as bullish expectations collided with the reality of high inventories and soft demand in China, the world’s biggest metals user. The LME Index is 10% off its late May highs.

Only one LME base metal has held firm in the broader price retreat. LME tin , trading around $33,250 per ton, is up by 31% on the start of the year, out-performing the others by a wide margin.

While funds have focused on future supply constraints for metals such as copper, tin supply is disrupted in the here and now.

Funds and optics

Tin has been lifted by the broader rotation of speculative money into the base metal sector.

Fund long positioning stretched to 3,781 contracts in April, the most bullish reading since the LME launched its Commitments of Traders Report in 2018.

While funds were busy reducing long positions in other metals last month, they held those in tin. Investor long positions were a sizeable 3,726 contracts at the close of last week.

Fund managers have no cause to sell. The price has been steady and LME stocks of the metal have fallen.

Overall LME inventory rose from 1.16 million to 1.79 million metric tons in the first half of the year. Much of that increase was down to a dump of aluminum into the system in May but exchange stocks risen across the board.

LME tin stocks, by contrast, fell by 38% to 4,750 tons over the first six months of 2024.

True, stocks registered with the ShFE are higher at 15,127 tons but they too have been sliding and are 15% off their May peak.

Exchange stocks are not always a reliable guide to fundamentals but bullish optics do no harm to a bullish market narrative.

Just ask Doctor Copper!

Copper bulls have been wrong-footed by a recent steady inflow of metal into LME warehouses and high Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) inventory. Shanghai stocks have conspicuously failed to follow the seasonal pattern of rapid decline after the Lunar new year holidays.

The optics are doubly negative, implying weak demand and plentiful availability of metal, undercutting a narrative of constrained supply and market deficit.

Supply constraints

A lack of long-term supply growth is core to the bull case for metals such as copper, zinc and increasingly aluminum.

Both copper and zinc show signs of tightness in the raw material segment of the supply chain, which helps to explain why they were second and third best performers in the first half of the year.

Smelter treatment charges have collapsed in both markets as mine supply struggles to keep up with demand.

However, a shortage of mined concentrates does not necessarily imply immediate tightness in the refined metal segment of the market, particularly if it is the result of increased smelter demand.

New smelter capacity in the copper market and reactivated capacity in the zinc market have played as important a role in collapsed treatment charges as faltering mine output.

Against such a backdrop, low treatment charges may translate into slower production growth rather than a fall in refined metal output.

Tin, by contrast, has this year experienced both raw material and refined metal tightness.

Shipments of refined tin from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter, have been severely disrupted by a backlog in issuing new licences. Outbound volumes slumped to 10,292 tons in January-May from 23,887 tons in the year-earlier period.

Flows of raw material from the Wa State tin mines in Myanmar to Chinese smelters have slowed considerably since the authorities initiated a wide-ranging audit in August last year.

China’s imports from Myanmar have fallen by 27% year-on-year so far in 2024 with the slowdown particularly pronounced in April and May,

The combination of reduced concentrate flows from Myanmar and refined metal flows from Indonesia that has served to force buyers to draw on exchange stocks both on the LME and in China.

Hitting the pause button

The second quarter rally in base metals looks like something of a false start.

Investors have been left waiting for reality to catch up with their bullish expectations.

While some of the speculation has froth has been blown off in June, plenty of investors have stayed with the broader bull story. Copper remains the top metallic play, judging by the mood at last week’s LME Asia seminar.

The take-away for bulls is that their case is stronger when there are tangible signs of a shortfall of metal in the form of declining visible inventories.

Tin is the only market where stocks are falling in response to supply disruption, which is why it has so clearly out-performed the rest of the LME pack in the first part of 2024.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Barbara Lewis)

The deal includes a non-refundable payment of C$1 million from Northera within five days of signing the agreement and future shares post a go-public transaction.

The strategic move allows Cornish Metals to stay involved in Nickel King nickel-copper-cobalt asset’s potential future success, while focusing on South Crofty. 

The results of a new preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for the UK project, published last month, confirmed the asset is one of the highest-grade tin resources globally, worth over $200 million.

The calculation was based on a tin price of $31,000 per tonne, slightly below its current valuation of $32,408 per tonne.

Second life

The Vancouver-based company has been working on bringing the past-producing South Crofty tin mine back to life since 2016.

The former operation has been shut since 1998 following more than 400 years of almost continuous production. It was the last tin mine in Europe when it closed. Several companies attempted to revive the flooded mines between 2001 and 2013, but due to persistent poor market conditions the assets were put into administration in 2013.

As part of Cornish Metals’ plans to reopen the historic mine, the company has said it would build new processing facilities and all the necessary site infrastructure. It has already obtained permission for underground mining until 2071 and an environmental permit to dewater the mine.

Tin is part of the UK’s critical metals list and its importance has also been recognized by other European Union governments, as well as the US and China. 

The Royal Cornwall Museum is opening its redesigned Mineral Gallery next month and has revealed in advance discoveries within the collection, evidencing Bronze Age mining in the southwest United Kingdom.

Recent carbon dating research on an oak shovel along with evidence from examination of an antler pick has signified that the two items within the museum’s archive are the first Bronze Age tin mining tools to be found in Europe, providing insight into the mining techniques and daily life of our ancestors.

The newly published research into the pick and shovel supports the growing evidence of Bronze Age tin workings in Cornwall dating back over 3,600 years, with Royal Cornwall Museum chronicling the evolution of mining and minerals within their collections.

Both the antler pick and wooden shovel were found in the Carnon Valley, mid-Cornwall, when alluvial tin streamworks were being reworked in the nineteenth century, with radiocarbon dating indicating they are from the British Bronze Age (2,400-800 BC).

Led by Dr. Alan Williams from the Department of Archaeology at Durham University, Royal Cornwall Museum’s oak wooden shovel has most recently been radiocarbon dated at around 3,200 years old by the Project Ancient Tin team, with a grant from the Royal Archaeological Institute.

Understood to have been found in the Carnon Valley in 1815, this design is formed from one piece of wood, unlike Medieval wooden shovels that are in two pieces.

Found circa 1855, the antler pick (48cm long) is around 3,600 years old, or Early Bronze Age, and is the first evidence for the extraction of tin and/or alluvial gold in the British Isles. Examination of the antler pick reveals tally marks carved into the side, which could signify the recording of work by prehistoric miners, with the research and dating for this piece conducted by Dr Simon Timberlake, Early Mines Research Group.

Now with designated dates, these two items within Royal Cornwall Museum’s collection are of historical significance, representing the first Bronze Age tin mining tools discovered in Europe and showing evidence of Bronze Age tin workings in Cornwall.

Small amounts of gold also found in the Carnon Valley have been linked by chemical fingerprint to the gold in the famous Nebra Sky Disc, an artefact thought to be the world’s oldest map of the stars.

Found in Germany, and considered one of the most important archaeological finds of the 20th century, the inclusion of Cornish gold and tin in this disc along with other finds suggests Cornish prehistoric mining and trading practices may have pioneered the European Bronze Age.

“Cornwall and mining are already intertwined, but this important discovery demonstrates just how long mining has been taking place in Cornwall, and how well developed some of the tools of the trade were, even at that time,” Bryony Robins, artistic director for Royal Cornwall Museum said in a media statement.

“The Mineral Gallery will share with our visitors the heritage of mining in Cornwall, and present the world-renowned collection of rocks and minerals in a more accessible way. And, of course, the role that mining is continuing to play in Cornwall.” 

Reopening early July 2024, the new Mineral Gallery marks new era for this 200-year-old institution – a centre of exploration, learning, and custodian of Cornish heritage – and home to over one million artefacts. 

Gerald Group made a provision of $37.3 million in its 2023 financial accounts after the deal to buy Brazilian tin went awry, according to a note in its 2022 accounts filed at the UK’s Companies House. The firm has started investigations and engaged parties to assist in recovering the funds.

“Upon arrival at the final destination and final weigh and assays results, it was discovered that the counterparty failed to fulfill its contractual obligations to deliver tin concentrate,” Gerald Group said in the filing.

Bloomberg reported last year that the company was hit by a loss in its tin book, with several senior executives subsequently leaving the firm. Reuters reported last June that Gerald Group had bought cargoes that were supposed to contain tin concentrate in Brazil but turned out to be sand.

But it’s the first time that Gerald Group — one of the largest metals trading houses outside of a top tier of Trafigura Group and Glencore Plc — has acknowledged the fraud and put a number on the potential loss it faces.

Gerald Group didn’t respond to a request for comment. The company reported net profit of $50 million in 2022.

A string of scandals has shaken metals markets and ensnared a number of trading houses in incidents that reveal shortcomings in the oversight of shipments and warehouses. Trafigura is still in court over an alleged $500 million fraud in nickel, while last March bags of nickel owned by JPMorgan Chase & Co. were found to contain stones.

(By Archie Hunter and Jack Farchy)

London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month tin is currently trading around $33,500 per metric ton, up by 32% on the start of January, compared with copper’s 21% price gain.

Tin is a much smaller market but it has attracted its fair share of fund money as investors chase the combination of strong demand profile and structurally challenged supply.

Tin ticks both boxes, particularly the latter. One of the world’s largest mines in Myanmar has been closed since August and shipments from Indonesia, the world’s largest refined metal exporter, have dropped sharply this year.

Supply disruption has already seen London tin rally to a near two-year high of $36,050 per ton in April and it almost matched that this week with a Monday high of $35,355.

However, there is one element missing from the bull picture.

While the price has been rising, global exchange inventory has been rising too. The conflicting signals highlight the disconnect between longer-term bull narrative and current demand reality.

Shanghai surge

Stocks registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) have grown from 6,346 to 17,818 tons since the start of January.

Exchange inventory is the highest it’s been since the launch of the Shanghai tin contract in 2015 and by some margin. The previous record in 2017 was just 10,964 tons.

There was an accelerated seasonal rebuild over the lunar new year holidays but the usual post-holiday decline has been conspicuous by its absence. Stocks have simply climbed further.

The scale of increase may reflect a shift in trading patterns by China’s massive tin production sector in the form of a movement of off-market inventory to exchange storage.

Shanghai tin volumes have grown exponentially in recent years, a record 39 million tons trading in 2023. Speculative flows have played their part but greater trade participation is also likely in the mix.

The key take-away, though, is that there is a lot of surplus tin sitting in Shanghai.

LME stocks stop falling

Stocks of tin registered with the LME are much smaller at a current 4,945 tons and they are still down by a significant 36% on the start of the year.

However, the downtrend has run its course for now. LME inventory hit a near one-year low of 4,045 tons in the middle of April and has slowly rebuilt since.

Significantly, the amount of tin in the system awaiting physical load-out has fallen to just 90 tons from almost 600 tons at the end of April. The flow of metal out of LME warehouses is set to become a trickle in the days ahead.

Moreover, LME time-spreads are in healthy contango, suggesting there is good availability of metal. The benchmark cash-to-threes period was valued at a contango of $185 per ton at the Thursday close, compared with a backwardation of $425 on April 23.

Supply constraints

Tin’s supply problems haven’t gone away.

Exports from Indonesia have been disrupted by a new licensing system introduced at the start of the year. Shipments fell to near zero over January and February and only started picking up in March but they remain below historical averages.

Total exports slumped to 6,992 tons in the first four months of this year from 16,778 tons in the same period of 2023.

The market has not only been able to absorb the loss of 10,000 tons of Indonesian metal relative to last year but has seen stocks build at the same time.

Similarly, Chinese tin smelters appear to have been able to lift run-rates despite much reduced flows of raw materials from the Man Maw mine in Myanmar, which was closed in August for an audit by the United Wa State Army.

The Wa authorities have allowed the movement of above-surface stocks but have yet to approve a formal restart of mining operations.

Yet China’s refined tin production in March was 15,556 tons, up 35.74% from February and up 2.92% year-on-year, according to local data provider Shanghai Metal Market (SMM). SMM expected the pace of yearly growth to pick up to 11% in April.

Demand gap

The combination of continuing supply disruption and climbing inventory suggests tin’s weak demand patch is proving more prolonged than expected.

Global tin usage fell by 3.2% in 2022 and was expected to contract another 1.6% in 2023, according to the International Tin Association’s annual survey of consumers conducted in October last year.

Semiconductor sales, an important indicator of tin usage in circuit-board soldering, declined sharply over 2022 and early 2023 but have bounced back in the intervening months.

However, the recovery is showing signs of losing momentum. First-quarter sales were up an impressive 15.2% on the first quarter of 2023 but were down by 5.7% on the previous quarter, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association .

This year’s sharp jump in tin price and the accompanying market volatility are generating a destocking impulse, which is exacerbating the underlying softness in demand.

Tin is by no means the only metal seeing such a clash between bullish expectations and not-so-bullish supply-chain reality.

But the disconnect is particularly stark and growing ever wider as global inventory keeps building.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Marguerita Choy)

The Amsterdam & Partners LLP law firm has been investigating allegations that minerals mined in Congo by several companies and armed groups are being smuggled out through Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi.

Congo’s lawyers notified Apple CEO Tim Cook on April 22 about a series of concerns regarding its supply chain, and also wrote to Apple subsidiaries in France, demanding answers within three weeks.

“It is more urgent than ever that Apple provide real answers to the very serious questions we have raised, as we evaluate our legal options,” said Congo lawyer Robert Amsterdam.

“The absence of a response is an implicit admission that the questions we asked Apple were relevant,” added William Bourdon, another lawyer representing the country.

In today’s press release, the DRC’s lawyers painted Apple’s silence “as a testament to the company’s embarrassment in providing accurate answers beyond the banal and predictable rhetoric of denial served up by Apple’s spokespersons four weeks ago.”

Apple has said in the past that it does not directly buy, procure, or source primary minerals, and it has been auditing its suppliers for several years and publishing its findings.

In a report last year, Apple stated that 100% of identified smelters and refiners in the supply chain for all applicable Apple products manufactured in 2023 had participated in an independent third-party conflict minerals audit for tin, tantalum, tungsten (known as 3T minerals), and gold.

In 2021, U.S. official data showed that Rwanda was providing 15% of the global supply of tantalum, despite the country producing only modest amounts of tantalum from its own mines.

Moreover, the U.S. was buying more tantalum from Rwanda — 36% of its total imports, the highest among global producers — compared to only 7% from the DRC.

Benchmark three-month tin on the London Metal Exchange hit $36,050 a metric ton in April, propelled by production problems in Myanmar, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounted for 43% of global tin mine production in 2023 according to United States Geological Survey data.

Tin has gained 31% this year, making it the best performing base metal, on funds flowing into the sector to hedge against inflation and as hopes of rate cuts grow. Tin’s gains have exceeded those of investor favourite copper.

On the supply side, Project Blue analyst Jack Anderson said it remained unclear whether tin mining operations in Myanmar’s Wa State would resume within the next six months, as some analysts expected.

“While Indonesia has resumed exports, it is also uncertain whether producers in the country will increase export volumes to make up for the first two months of the year,” he added, referring to delays in export permits from the country.

Tin prices may see “extreme increases” in the second half, hitting as high as $38,000 a ton due to macroeconomic factors, said Guo Ning, a secretary general at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA).

In addition, long-term exports from Indonesia will likely fall as it reserves more metal for use in domestic downstream sectors, she said.

China’s tin production will likely reach 216,000 tons in 2024 and consumption could hit 226,000 tons, Guo said. Project Blue also forecast global tin demand will outstrip supply this year.

Demand

First-quarter tin consumption in top buyer China rose 6.7% to 56,000 tons, said CNIA’s Guo, driven by a solid recovery in the white goods market and a slight rebound in mobile phones and personal computers.

Tin usage in the photovoltaic, automotive electronics and chemicals industries also saw good growth, Guo added.

BMI analysts increased their 2024 tin price forecast, but predicted prices could ease to around $26,000 to $32,000 a ton in the coming months due to sticky inflation and a slower pace of semiconductor sales growth, in a report published on Monday.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, last month surprised the market by dialling back its expectations for chip sector growth.

Net long tin positions by investment funds on the LME hit a record high in April, but have fallen back slightly, exchange data showed.

“High levels of net spec warn that prices are overextended, as there are few new longs to enter the market,” said analyst Dan Smith at brokerage Amalgamated Metal Trading.

Adding to price pressure, tin inventories surged to a record high in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

Higher futures prices attracted tin held outside exchange warehouses to flow into SHFE warehouses, said analyst Jeremy Pearce at the International Tin Association.

“If I were a consumer, I would protect myself against a push higher, just being risk averse,” said analyst Michael Widmer at Bank of America.

“From a funds perspective, I would probably wait and see how the fundamentals picture shapes up from where we are,” he added.

(By Mai Nguyen; Editing by Jamie Freed)

The Commission, which oversees trade policy in the 27-nation EU, launched the anti-dumping investigation following a complaint from European steel association Eurofer, the EU official journal said on Thursday.

The investigation, along with another launched on Thursday into wood flooring imports, is the latest in a string of EU trade and subsidy probes into Chinese exports and the operations of Chinese companies in Europe, most notably an anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles.

EU and US investigations and tariffs have drawn a rebuke from Beijing, which earlier on Thursday said assertions that China has been dumping the products of its excess capacity on European and US markets were “naked trade protectionism”.

The tinplate steel investigation will last up to 14 months, with the possible imposition of provisional duties in seven to eight months.

The journal entry said one of the complaint’s central allegations is that Chinese producers benefit from distorted prices for raw materials, notably hot-rolled flat iron or steel Commission, which accounts for 60-70% of the production costs and is subject to Chinese export restrictions.

Eurofer said the opening of the investigation was an important step towards restoring a level playing field, adding that EU industry had lost a quarter of sales volumes from 2021 to 2023, while Chinese imports more than doubled.

China’s Chamber of Commerce in the EU did not immediately provide a comment.

(By Philip Blenkinsop; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

All mining products from Rwanda should be considered “blood minerals,” because their sale allegedly supports conflict in eastern Congo, Mines Minister Antoinette N’Samba Kalambayi said in a May 8 statement released on Tuesday. “All stakeholders, including end consumers of mining products,” should commit to a responsible supply chain, and “an embargo be decreed against Rwanda,” she said.

The minister’s plea follows the takeover earlier this month of Congo’s largest mines of tantalum, a key mineral in portable electronics, by the M23 rebel group. Congo and United Nations experts say M23 is backed by Rwanda, which is now receiving the smuggled tantalum and warehousing it for future sale, she said.

Rwanda’s government has repeatedly denied it supports M23. Last month, government spokesperson Yolande Makolo told Bloomberg that accusations that Rwanda is stealing minerals is “a scapegoating strategy” by the Congolese government to cover up its own “security and governance failures.” Makolo didn’t respond to a request for comment Wednesday.

Eastern Congo’s minerals have fueled conflict for decades and international efforts to stop it have had limited success.

Exports of tin ore, tantalum, tungsten ore and gold from the region are supposed to be certified and tagged through several initiatives to enable buyers to identify the source of their metal purchases. In reality, many of those tracing systems are collapsing as conflicts proliferate throughout eastern Congo, leading to the displacement of more than 6 million people.

Last month, lawyers for Congo’s government complained to Apple Inc. that it was supporting the war by indirectly buying stolen minerals through Rwanda for its products. Apple said it did due diligence on its supply chain and found no links to conflict.

The M23 has been Congo’s chief concern since the group launched its most recent rebellion in late 2021 amid worries that the rights of ethnic Tutsis were under threat in the country. The group has surrounded the city of Goma since the beginning of the year, blocking key trade routes and expanding its territory.

The trade in minerals from the region is worth billions of dollars annually. A large share escapes formal export channels. In some cases, armed groups profit from the sales.

Minerals have become a pillar of Rwanda’s formal economy in recent years, with exports nearing $1 billion over the past fiscal year, Rwandan central bank data shows. Rwanda’s entire gross domestic product is about $14 billion, according to the International Monetary Fund.

(By Michael J. Kavanagh)

The Canadian company, which has been working on bringing a past-producing tin mine back to life since 2016, said the PEA revealed a post-tax net present value of $201 million for the Cornwall mine. 

The assessment also showed an internal rate of return of 29.8%, confirming the potential of the project as “a low-cost and long-life tin operation” with a current 14-year life of mine.  

The estimate is based on a tin price of $31,000 per tonne, Cornish Metals said, slightly below its current valuation of $32,275 per tonne.

The PEA pegged the expected post-tax cash flow from the operation at $626 million, from the start of production, peaking at $82 million in the second year.

Once operational, the project will produce average annual earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization of $83 million at a 62% margin in years two through six.

Cornish Metals chief operating officer, Owen Mihalop, said that the project’s net present value (NPV) provided a solid foundation for further evaluation, allowing the company to move forward with additional preparation work and progress towards a construction decision.

South Crofty is expected to produce 49,310 tonnes of tin metal in concentrate over its productive life, peaking at over 5,000 tonnes in year four. 

The goal is achieving first tin production by 2027.

Critical metals focus

Tin is part of the UK’s critical metals list and its importance has also been recognized by other European Union governments, as well as the US and China. 

The former South Crofty operation has been shut since 1998 following more than 400 years of almost continuous production. It was the last tin mine in Europe when it closed. Several companies attempted to revive the flooded mines between 2001 and 2013, but due persistent poor market conditions the assets were put into administration in 2013.

As part of Cornish plans to reopen the historic mine, the company has said it would build new processing facilities and all the necessary site infrastructure. It has already obtained permission for underground mining until 2071 and an environmental permit to dewater the mine.

Exports of mining products from Indonesia have been affected by delays in approvals of annual work plans for mining companies after changes to the approval process at the mining ministry.

However, Indonesia’s biggest tin miner PT Timah resumed exports after acquiring a permit to export around 30,000 metric tons of refined tin in 2024, which could relieve supply tightness.

Indonesia produced 74,400 tons of refined tin last year, accounting for about a fifth of global output, with 57,317 tons of that exported, data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics showed.

(By Stanley Widianto; Editing by Ros Russell and David Goodman)

The LME benchmark tin price is by far the top gainer on the exchange this year, surging by 31% compared to 13% for copper, as speculators have piled into the market.

LME tin advanced 4.2% to $34,160 a metric ton on Thursday, its highest since June 2022.

“This is speculation on the back of fundamentals. I would rule out a consumer or a physical player,” said a trader who declined to be identified.

Supply of the metal, mainly used for solder in electronics, has been hit by disruptions in Indonesia, Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

“There is still a lot of uncertainty about when Myanmar will resume their production, whilst the semiconductor industry is still driving strong downstream consumption,” said analyst Yuting Du at broker Marex.

Macquarie expects a global tin deficit of 8,000 tons this year and a shortfall of 12,000 tons in 2025 compared to a surplus of 8,000 tons last year, analyst Sukriti Kalra said in a note.

Worries about supply have drawn material out of LME-approved warehouses, sending inventories sliding by 45% so far this year to 4,245 tons.

Tight supply has also caused the premium of the LME cash tin contract to the three-month contract to jump to $350 a ton by Wednesday’s close, the largest premium since July 2023, from $40 on Monday.

One party on the LME has taken a long position in May futures that represents more than 40% of open interest, LME data showed. There also a number of short positions in May, including one that accounts for up to 19% of open interest.

“It looks like a squeeze, there’s quite a few short positions. It’s probably somebody who doesn’t need the metal. This could get explosive,” a second trader said.

Fund buying has skyrocketed this year with investment funds having pushed up long positions on the LME to 3,713 contracts.

That is the highest level since the LME started publishing its Commitments of Traders Report in 2018 and up from only 849 long contracts at the start of the year.

Demand has also improved as semiconductor sales, an indicator of electronic goods demand, have been recovering in recent months.

Global sales in February were up 16% on last year, according to the most recent figures from the Semiconductor Industry Association.

(By Eric Onstad and Pratima Desai; Editing by David Evans)

Tin on the London Metal Exchange has surged in April, and its 25% advance in 2024 puts it well ahead of more closely-watched commodities like copper or crude oil.

A swathe of different factors lies behind the metal’s rapid ascent. Disruptions have hit tin supply in major producers Indonesia, Mynamar and Democratic Republic of Congo, while analysts say demand from electronics will expand as the world’s AI boom demands more computing power.

But market chatter in recent weeks has focused on the role of a single, bullish trader that’s tightening its grip on LME tin. That entity is holding at least 40% of long positions on tin for May delivery, according to regular exchange data that doesn’t identify holders.

That level of concentration hasn’t been seen since 2017, and equates to at least 90% of the volume now held in LME warehouses. Holders of short positions could find themselves in a tight spot as the May contract approaches expiry.

Necessary controls

“Some market participants feel there could be a risk of a squeeze,” said Ding Wenqiang, senior analyst at one of China’s largest metal researchers, Mysteel.com. “They are paying close attention to the movements of the big bull in the May contract.”

Commodities markets, especially less liquid ones like tin, are prone to periodic short squeezes where prices surge as shorts are forced to cash out of loss-making bets. The 2022 drama that gripped the nickel world was a prominent example.

The LME acknowledged tightness in the tin market and said in an email that it’s monitoring the market closely. “The LME has the necessary controls in place to ensure continued market orderliness,” it said, citing limits on nearby spreads, delivery deferral procedures and mechanisms to control volatility.

Driving forces

Indonesia, the biggest global tin exporter, has reduced shipments amid licensing delays and a high-profile corruption probe that has ensnared many tin smelter executives and traders. Flows from war-torn Myanmar, the world’s No.3 producer, have slowed, while there have also been disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo due to armed unrest.

On the demand side, the growth of the global AI sector is a potential boon for metals used in electronics and electrification. Huge numbers of new data servers and computing systems will be needed, boosting tin consumption because it’s used in soldering.

“Every data byte and every electron travels through hundreds of solder joints that connect it all together,” Jeremy Pearce, head of market intelligence and communications at the International Tin Association, said by email. While it’s challenging to give demand estimates at this stage, he said, the basic view is that much more tin will be needed in computing and communication systems.

LME tin inventories fell 47% so far this year to 4,045 tons, and the metal’s spot price recently flipped to a premium against the three-month futures contract — a structure known as backwardation that indicates a tight market.

The benchmark tin contract climbed to the highest since June 2022 on Friday, while open interest reached the most since 2015. Prices were little changed on Wednesday at $31,810 a ton.

There are clear signs that speculative bets have been building, with hedge funds, assets management firms and other financial institutions entering the market.

The aggregate net-long position held by these financial investors rose to the highest level since the LME started publishing such data in 2018. And the combined long position held by these traders, who rarely participate in physical tin trading, now accounts for 69% of all bullish bets, according to the exchange’s latest summary of trader commitments.

China factor

In previous bouts of tightness in the tin market, exports from China have helped to plug a supply gap and rebalance the market. But, while inventories in China have been rising and prices are relatively weaker, the discount to the world market isn’t yet big enough to spur exports, Mysteel’s Ding said.

Finally, the LME’s recent removal of two Chinese tin smelters from its list of “good for delivery” brands has deepened market concerns about a squeeze on supply. The LME had said in January that it planned to delist 10% of brands due to non-compliance with the exchange’s responsible-sourcing rules.

“The LME’s decision to cancel the delivery qualifications of two Chinese brands earlier this month also weakened expectations for Chinese supply to ease tensions in the market,” Ding added.

(By Alfred Cang)

Located in Cornwall, United Kingdom, the 100% owned South Crofty project is the site of a former high-grade underground tin mine that started production in 1592 and continued to operate until 1998.

Cornish plans to reopen the historic mine by building new processing facilities and all the necessary site infrastructure. It has already obtained permission for underground mining until 2071 and an environmental permit to dewater the mine.

Earlier this year, the company announced it is speeding up the mine restart process by speeding up efforts to refurbish the New Cook’s Kitchen (NCK) shaft at South Crofty, which it said is progressing as planned. By doing so, the Cornish team would be able to bring larger equipment to the mine at an earlier stage of its re-development. In addition to NCK, there are four other shafts still intact for future operations.

In October 2023, Cornish management also decided to start the mine dewatering process, also a critical aspect of the mine’s restart given how long it had been in operations. This process is expected to take 18 months to complete, the company previously said. Currently, the submersible pumps and water treatment plant are operating to specifications.

Cornish interim CEO Ken Armstrong said in Tuesday’s news release that work is well advanced on the South Crofty PEA, which will be used to support a later feasibility study and a construction decision.

Armstrong also mentioned the convenient timing of the PEA work during a period of strengthening tin price and an emerging recognition of tin as a critical metal by the UK and other national governments.

“Combined with the fact that there is presently no primary tin production in Europe or North America, these factors strongly support our thesis to fast-track work to, if feasible, responsibly bring the South Crofty tin mine back into production,” he said.

In addition to reviving the underground mine, Cornish is also exploring the additional mineral rights on the South Crofty property for potential discoveries of tin, copper, lithium, tungsten, zinc and silver mineralization.

According to company estimates, South Crofty has the fourth-highest-grade tin mineral resource globally, containing 46,200 tonnes of the base metal in the indicated category and 41,600 tonnes inferred, mostly in the lower mine area, as shown in its most recent technical report (September 2023).

LME three-month metal hit $33,130 per metric ton on Wednesday, a level last traded in June 2022. Currently trading at $32,000, tin is now up by 27% since the start of the year. Copper, the second-best performer among the LME base metals suite, is up by a comparatively modest 10% since the start of January.

Speculative buying has played its part in the sharp rally, with fund positioning as bullish as it’s been since March 2022, when the price was on a super-charged run to above $50,000 per ton.

Tin is clearly back in the spotlight as investors buy into the market’s bull narrative of resurgent demand and challenged supply.

Already facing disruption in Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of metal, and Myanmar, home to the world’s largest mine, tin is now facing a third threat in the form of escalating violence in the tin-rich province of North Kivu in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

New threat

Kivu has long been a hub of artisanal mining for the so-called “3Ts”, namely tin, tantalum and tungsten.

It is also home to the Bisie tin mine, which was once artisanal but is now mechanized and operated by Alphamin Resources. Bisie produced 12,600 tons of tin in concentrate last year, accounting for around 4.5% of global supply.

Material mined from both Bisie and artisanal sources flows across the Goma border crossing with Rwanda, a part of the country that has fallen under the control of the M23 rebel group.

The increasingly violent confrontation with government forces has displaced an estimated 800,000 people and key access roads to Goma are now under rebel control.

The International Tin Association (ITA), which has been monitoring the fast-deteriorating situation in North Kivu, notes that while there is no evidence yet of tin exports being halted, “delays may be expected as mineral shipments are rerouted further north and south away from rebel-controlled areas.”

It’s the last thing Asian smelters need right now, given the continued uncertainty around the status of the Man Maw mine in Myanmar.

The mine is controlled by the semi-autonomous Wa State, which ordered the suspension of mining activities last August. Surface stocks have continued to be shipped across the border, but Chinese smelters have been lifting imports from other countries to compensate, including the Congo.

Metal squeeze

At least one tin supply disruption is abating as Indonesian authorities catch up on delays to the annual export licensing process.

Two of the country’s largest producers, including PT Timah, have now restarted exports, according to the ITA.

However, the sharp drop in Indonesian shipments to just 55 tons over the first two months of this year is already tightening the Western market.

LME headline tin stocks have slumped by 46% to 4,145 tons since the start of the year and are now the lowest since last July. Excluding metal earmarked for physical load-out, available stocks are just 3,650 tons.

The stocks squeeze has rippled through LME short-dated time-spreads. In the space of three weeks, the benchmark cash-to-three-months period has shifted from a contango of more than $200 per ton to a backwardation of $84 as of Wednesday’s close.

Demand recovery

The draw on LME stocks also attests to a demand recovery in the electronics sector, where tin is used in circuit-board soldering.

The sector, accounting for about half of all global tin usage, saw falling sales last year as a cost of living squeeze in many Western countries suppressed demand for new purchases of electronic goods.

However, semiconductor sales, another useful indicator of electronic goods demand, seem to have troughed around the middle of last year and have been recovering ever since. Global sales in February were up 16% on last year, according to the most recent figures from the Semiconductor Industry Association.

It’s noticeable that the tin price has been closely tracking the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index, which has surged by 52% from its January low.

But the two have diverged over the last few days, suggesting that tin is now trading on its own momentum as much as its fundamentals.

Funds rush to buy

Fund money has surged into the London tin market and positioning is now as bullish as it was during the mega rally of 2021 and early 2022.

Investment funds have lifted long positions to 3,134 contracts, which is the highest level since the LME started publishing its Commitments of Traders Report in 2018.

The position is equivalent to 15,670 metric tons, which doesn’t sound like much until you consider the level of LME inventory.

Funds are net long of the tin contract to the tune of 2,371 contracts, which is just short of the March 2022 peak. That’s down to the fact there are still shorts in the London market, whereas there were almost none when the price was rocketing up to $50,000.

It’s worth noting that positioning in the LME’s “Other Financial” category, which captures index and insurance entities, flipped to net long in January with the position now at 328 contracts, the most bullish it’s been since the start of 2022.

Tin is a relatively small LME contract and the scale of speculative inflows injects extra unpredictability into an already volatile market.

That underlying volatility is only going to get worse as the number of potential supply threats multiplies.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Paul Simao)

The historic gold run and copper’s comeback, up 14% and 12% so far in 2024, only kicked into a higher gear after the end of the March quarter, but copper and gold counters nevertheless dominate the best performer list for Q1.  

The lacklustre combined performance of the sector’s majors came despite the revival in the bellwether metals, but the broader market has  been a mixed bag in 2024.  

Aluminium is trading not far off 52-week highs, but zinc seems unlikely to breach $3,000 a tonne any time soon and cobalt is bobbing along historic lows below $30,000 a tonne.

Nickel has been bumped up after lows in the mid-$15,000s last year, but remains firmly stuck in bear territory and lithium’s 2024 good fortune also looks in danger of petering out.

Sentiment towards PGMs has hardly improved with both platinum and palladium drifting lower in 2024. Even iron ore prices back above $100 a tonne – the bread and butter of the diversified majors – was not enough for investors to jump back into the sector.

Gold, copper boost 

First Quantum Minerals with market valuation up 58% in US dollar terms, made a welcome return at position 44 after dropping out at the end of last year following the closure of its Cobre Panama mine. 

Amman Mineral continued its astounding run – the Indonesian copper and gold miner has added 380% in value since its July listing and could soon vie for a place in the top 10. 

Lundin Mining joins the top 50 for the first time, jumping five places to 48 and is already climbing thanks to the red metal approaching 14-month highs.  Lundin’s 25% rise in 2024 also restores Vancouver as the number one location among top 50 headquarters after Pilbara Minerals’ exit this quarter. 

Anglogold Ashanti’s re-entry boosts the number of precious metals miners in the top tier to 10 and their collective value to $183 billion. 

China’s Yintai Gold, which in February picked up Canada’s Osino Resources, could also challenge for a position in the upper echelon from its current 54th position should gold continue to rally, but long term top 50 participant KGHM has a hill to climb to make it back despite shares in the Polish mining company rising 15% year to date.    

Pan American Silver, like its primary metal, could ride gold’s coattails to become the only silver-focused miner in the top 50 following Fresnillo’s exit more than a year ago.  Silver is now the best performing metal year to date, up more than 18%.  

Diversified drubbing 

While the top 50 mining companies as a whole drifted sideways during the quarter, the largest diversified companies faced headwinds going into 2024, and uncharacteristically some of the biggest names in mining feature on the worst performers list for the quarter.  

The only $100bn companies in the ranking – BHP and Rio Tinto – were both down by double digits at the end of Q1 and Glencore’s rerating over the past couple of years went into reverse with declines of 9% in 2024.

Vale’s pullback from its valuation at the end of 2023 places the stock firmly in bear territory with losses of nearly 24% in US dollar terms. The Brazilian giant sold 13% of its base metals unit for $3.4bn to amongst others, the Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, but given the performance of nickel a separate listing seems off the table for now.

Anglo American stock had a fairly uneventful Q1 2024 after the sharp H2 2023 sell-off sparked by copper guidance,  PGM and South African power woes, and despite the bad news from its Woodsmith fertiliser project in England. 

Nevertheless, the counter has dropped  below a $30 billion market cap for the first time since the outset of the pandemic and losses for the past 12 months top 30%. Rumours that Glencore may be interested after the Swiss behemoth’s bid for all of Teck Resources fell through have died down, probably for the right reasons. 

The ranking remains top heavy, but as a group the historic top five diversified mining companies’ share of the MINING.COM Top 50’s overall valuation fell to a new low of 29%, down from 36% at the end of 2022.  

China cheer

The historic top 5 diversifieds should in fairness be expanded to seven and include Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden and Zijin Mining, the highly acquisitive Chinese firm is up over 30% so far this year and appears to be well ensconced in the top 10.

Xiamen-based Zijing at the end of Q1 fell just short of a $60bn market worth (indeed gold and copper’s run in the first week of Q2 has now lifted the stock above that milestone). 

On the best performer list for the quarter, Zijin sits just behind CMOC Group, formerly China Molybdenum and for years before being overtaken by Zijin the most valuable middle kingdom mining stock, and ahead of Jiangxi Copper, which jumps 9 places to 41 in Q1. 

The 10 Chinese companies in the ranking collectively are worth $192bn or 14% of the overall value, up from 8 companies valued at $115bn and 9% of three years ago. 

Lithium loss 

Three counters dropped out of the top 50 during the first quarter.  Brazil’s CSN Mineração, an iron ore miner, China’s Huayou Cobalt and Australian lithium producer Pilbara Minerals.

Pilbara Minerals only just lost out to Kinross Gold for the last spot as at end-March and lithium prices have recovered somewhat this year, but probably not enough for the lithium sector to outperform gold stocks in Q2. 

The merger of Livent and Allkem to form Arcadium Lithium also did not result in an increase in lithium mining’s representation in the ranking.  Arcadium Lithium has been hammered down to below a $5bn valuation this year. 

From its height of a collective $119bn valuation at the end of the second quarter of 2022, the combined value of the lithium stocks in the top 50 has now fallen to $59 billion.

Click on the table below for a full-size image.

*NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM,  GoogleFinance, stock exchange data, company reports. Share data from primary-listed exchange at March 28, 2024 – March 29, 2024 close of trading converted to US$ at cross-rates March 29, 2024. 

Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change on exchange in local currency.  

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining, which owns the world’s largest gold mine, Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining still makes up a small portion of its valuation.  

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.