The increase — which saw volumes climb to 1,313 tons — was underpinned by stronger investment flows from the West, including more high-net-worth individuals, that helped offset waning appetite from Asia, the industry-funded group said in a report on Wednesday. Buying in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds flipped to gains in the quarter after prolonged outflows.

Gold has stormed higher this year, rallying by more than a third and setting successive records. The jump has been driven by robust central-bank buying and increased demand from wealthy investors, with recent gains aided by the Federal Reserve’s shift to cutting interest rates. Purchases in the opaque over-the-counter market were becoming an increasingly important force for prices, according to John Reade, the council’s chief market strategist.

“Demand has switched through the course of this year from predominantly emerging-market OTC buying — high-net-worth individuals — toward very much more Western OTC buying,” Reade said. OTC transactions are done through dealers or between buyers and sellers directly, without an exchange.

Gold — which set an intraday record just above $2,800 an ounce in Wednesday’s trading — has registered gains every month this year, apart from a minor pullback in January, and in June, when prices were flat. “The fact that corrections have been very shallow and short is a keen indication of FOMO buying,” Reade said in an interview, referring to investors’ so-called fear of missing out.

As the rate-cutting cycle gets underway, the WGC expects to see increased allocation to bullion, with geopolitical uncertainty — particularly surrounding next week’s tight US presidential election — adding to reasons why investors are seeking to hold the haven asset.

Investment flows were key to the metal’s 13% gain in the third quarter, with total demand for ETFs, bars and coins reaching the strongest levels since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Central-bank purchases continued — with Poland, Hungary and India among the top buyers — even as the pace of official activity slowed. Jewelry demand fell as record prices hurt consumption.

Looking ahead, fiscal concerns — especially about swelling levels of government debt in the US — may become more pronounced as a driver, according to Reade.

There are concerns, including from the International Monetary Fund, “saying the deficit’s too big and really needs to be sorted out,” Reade said. “That’s the primary attraction from the OTC community to increase their gold holdings.”

The world’s biggest miner walked away from a $49 billion bid to acquire Anglo in May after it was rebuffed three times. The upcoming end to a six-month block on BHP making another approach had raised speculation a deal may again be under scrutiny.

“We made an approach to Anglo American earlier this year … we thought there was an opportunity here to create something unique and special, a bit of a sort of a one plus one equals three opportunity,” Ken MacKenzie said at BHP’s annual meeting.

“Unfortunately, Anglo American shareholders had a different view, and they thought there was more value in the plan that their management wanted to execute. And so they moved on. And quite frankly, so have we.”

As evidence, MacKenzie pointed to BHP’s C$4.5 billion ($3.25 billion) deal with Canada-listed Lundin Mining in July to jointly take over developer Filo Corp in a move to grow their copper holdings in South America.

(By Melanie Burton; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Sonali Paul)

Rare earth prices sustained at low levels during the quarter with a slight improvement in neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) prices towards the end, the company said.

The largest producer of rare earths outside China reported sales revenue of A$120.5 million for the three months ended Sept. 30, down from A$128.1 million in the same period last year.

The average selling price for the rare earth miner’s product range came in at A$42.5 per kilogram (kg) compared with a restated number of A$46.9 per kg a year ago.

Total rare-earth oxide output for the first quarter was at 2,722 REO tons, compared to 3,609 REO tons reported last year.

Rare earth metals are essential for industries like electric vehicles and defense due to their powerful magnetic properties, which contribute to increased energy efficiency.

(By Sneha Kumar and Roshan Thomas; Editing by Maju Samuel)

Shares of the country’s biggest pure-play lithium miner rose 4.2% to A$2.97 touching its highest level since early October as of 2318 GMT, while the broader benchmark index was down 0.2%.

Pilbara will now solely operate the Pilgan plant in Pilgangoora, which, after full ramp up, is expected to produce about 850 thousand tonnes (kt) annually.

Its lower capacity and higher cost Ngungaju plant will be placed into care and maintenance by the beginning of December.

Placing Ngungaju plant on care and maintenance is a logical and required response to current lithium pricing dynamics and focuses production at the more efficient Pilgan plant, Jefferies analysts said.

The optimization plan will reduce costs and capital expenditure for the company, although it will take a 100 kt hit to its output for fiscal 2025.

The company now expects output between 700 kt to 740 kt for fiscal 2025, lower than its previous estimate of 800 to 840 kt.

The plan tries to effectively cap the impact from a subdued lithium market, with prices dwindling due to new supply of the battery metal — which is seen as critical for energy transition.

The Ngungaju plant will remain in care and maintenance and will be ready to be fully ramped up within four months, when lithium market conditions improve, to capture the rising price environment, the company said.

“The long-term growth outlook for the lithium market remains robust, driven by technological advancements in e-mobility and energy storage, increasing consumer demand, and supportive government policies,” Pilbara said in a statement.

The company posted revenue of A$210 million for the September quarter, 31% lower than the previous quarter, reflecting lower prices and sales volumes.

($1 = 1.5244 Australian dollars)

(By John Biju; Editing by Anil D’Silva and Alan Barona)

Total transaction value as of Sept. 30 was $4.76 billion, down more than 50% compared to the $10.52 billion registered in the full year 2023, according to S&P’s latest report.

Steel producer H2GS AB’s (H2 Green Steel) $4.14 billion funding round in January led all private equity and venture capital deals in the metals and mining sector during that period.

The number of announced deals in the first three quarters totalled 59, on the year on track for the fewest deals in five years.

In the third quarter alone, total deal value plunged 80% year over year to $240 million from $1.22 billion, and the deal count dwindled to 15 from 37.

Antti Gronlund, managing director of UK-based private equity Appian Capital Advisory, said higher acquisition debt financing rates and reduced venture capital deployments have contributed to lower totals.

Transactions in 2023 may have benefited from large deals and non-sector-focused investors attracted by upbeat headlines focused on electric vehicles, which require significant amounts of critical minerals. Those headlines are now more subdued, affecting deal appetite, Gronlund explained.

Private equity investing is challenging because the sector is “working capital intensive,” added Kyle Mumford, partner at KPS Capital Partners LP.

“There are no small capital requests in a metals business. There’s only really big ones,” Mumford continued. “Unlike other businesses, in metals and mining, change in profitability and manufacturing to meet the demand that may be out there takes a long time and is really hard. It can mean a new equipment or a new mill or a new recycling capacity.

“Those are expensive and don’t often meet typical private equity return profiles.”

Still, opportunity exists for further investment in the coming years. Appian’s Gronlund noted that the mining industry is expected to require about $2.1 trillion by 2050 to support global net-zero goals, citing BloombergNEF estimates.

“A significant portion of that will need to come from private capital sources,” he added.

Total ore reserves at the are estimated at 4.8 million tonnes grading 53.8 grams per tonne of silver, containing 8.4 million oz. of the precious metal. This is part of a total estimated resource that comprises 38.3 million tonnes at 41.3 g/t for 51 million oz.

Wonawinta was previously developed as a shallow silver oxide project with four approved mine pits. Manuka took over the project in 2016 and, following a review period, began implementing a restart plan. The project currently has all mining approvals current and intact, and a process plant fully constructed.

The reserve estimate, says Manuka, gives the company a clear production pathway and the potential for revenues from gold and now silver following the restart of the Mt Boppy gold project located 150 km away from Wonawinta.

Manuka’s team has been infill drilling the current oxide resources on the Wonawinta mining lease while also testing the deeper mineralized sulphide ores (silver, lead and zinc). This was occurring whilst toll processing of the Mt Boppy gold ore is carried out at the Wonawinta plant.

Mt Boppy is the site of a historical mine that operated between 1901-1923, and at one time was one of the largest gold producers in Australia.

According to Dennis Karp, Manuka’s executive chairman, the process plant at Wonawinta has been kept in good working condition and has been on active care and maintenance since the processing of the gold bearing stockpiles hauled from Mt Boppy ceased in February 2024.

“It therefore stands ready to come back online at short notice,” he said, adding that the prospect of restarting Wonawinta following gold production from Mt Boppy provides “an excellent optionality on silver and the potential to take advantage of the very buoyant precious metals prices.”

Manuka is now reviewing its economic model for the Wonawinta mine development, which will include re-entering the two existing pits (Boundary and Manuka) plus the development of two new pits (Belah and Bimble). The company expects to announce the outcomes from this analysis during the current quarter.

Based on the current silver forward curve and an all-in sustaining cost of A$40.51/oz., the mine plan would deliver net operating cash flows of approximately A$100 million based on the ore reserve alone, Manuka estimates.

The study, published just a day after the United Nations warned the world is falling “miles short” of what’s needed to curb devastating global warming, indicates that an investment of $78 trillion will be needed to change this course and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations committed to limiting global warming to “well below” two degrees Celsius above the average temperatures recorded between 1850 and 1900, aiming for a target of 1.5 degrees Celsius if feasible. Efforts to date have not succeeded in meeting this challenge, the annual “Energy Transition Outlook” from Wood Mackenzie shows.

Unlike the UN pessimistic outlook, the Scottish consultancy believes that while major obstacles hinder short-term targets, particularly for 2030, a 2050 net-zero goal remains feasible. Immediate and coordinated global action would be necessary, WoodMac warns.

Threats to climate progress

A series of global crises, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, escalating Middle East violence, rising populism in Europe and global trade tensions with China, are undermining the pace of the energy transition, Wood Mackenzie’s vice president head of scenarios and technologies, Prakash Sharma, said. 

He explains that without urgent policy changes and enhanced investment, a warming trajectory of 2.5˚C to 3˚C could become inevitable.

“We are under no illusion as to how challenging the net zero transition will be, given the fact that fossil fuels are widely available, cost-competitive and deeply embedded in today’s complex energy system,” Sharma added. “A price on carbon maybe the most effective way to drive emissions reduction but it’s hard to see it coming together in a polarized environment.”

Key investment are needed across several critical areas, according to WoodMac. As renewable energy sources grow, substantial upgrades to power supply and grid infrastructure are essential to meet the growing demand. Additionally, the need for critical minerals, such as lithium, nickel and cobalt, is projected to increase five- to ten-fold by 2050, as demand for batteries and other technologies essential for the energy transition continues to grow. 

WoodMac sees the need to back the development of emerging technologies, including carbon capture, low-carbon hydrogen, and nuclear power, are vital for facilitating the shift towards cleaner energy sources.

Securing this funding won’t be easy, the consultants noted. “Doubling annual investments to $3.5 trillion by 2050 will be necessary in our net zero scenario,” Sharma said, adding that it will require unprecedented policy coordination globally.

The role of electrification

The electrification of energy systems will play a pivotal role in decarbonization. Transitioning from fossil fuels to electric power, Wood Mackenzie forecasts that electricity’s share of global energy demand will increase from 23% to 35% by 2050 in a base case, and could reach as high as 55% in a net-zero scenario.

Wood Mackenzie’s analysis reveals that global energy demand is set to rise by 14% by 2050. Emerging economies are projected to see even steeper growth at 45%, driven by rising populations and economic advancement. 

In parallel, data centres, electric vehicles, and AI are emerging as new drivers of electricity consumption, with AI-related energy use alone expected to increase from 500 TWh in 2023 to up to 4,500 TWh by 2050.

Including renewable energy source to meet electrifications demand could help reduce emissions, the report says.

According to Wood Mackenzie, solar and wind currently account for 17% of the global power supply, and renewables capacity is expected to double by 2030 in its base case. Yet, this increase still falls short of the COP28 commitment made in 2023 to triple renewables by 2030.

Transition or coexistence?

While nuclear energy holds promise for providing consistent, zero-carbon electricity, its high cost and frequent project delays pose significant challenges. WoodMac says that nuclear power could play a more significant role as it has attracted interest, particularly from tech companies looking to power data centres sustainably.

While fossil fuels is expected to plateau in the 2040s before beginning a gradual decline, Wood Mackenzie predicts that the high capital costs of low-carbon technologies coupled with strong demand for energy, will require the continued use of oil and gas in the near term.

Wood Mackenzie says to meet climate targets there will be necessary that nations gathered at the COP29 meeting in Azerbaijan next month finalize Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. This section focuses on carbon markets and aims to establish a new climate finance goal to replace the previous annual target of $100 billion, which experts consider insufficient.

The consultancy’s report echoes concerns included in a UN Environment Programme (UNEP) study released last week. The document says the next decade is crucial in the battle against climate change, adding that failing to act now will jeopardize any chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. According to the UN body, the current rate of climate action could lead to a catastrophic increase of 3.1 degrees Celsius this century. 

“Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned.

Even if all existing commitments to reduce emissions are fulfilled, global temperatures would still rise by 2.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, experts agree.

Rare earths have strong magnetic qualities which make them key to applications from smart phones to laser guided missiles. Australia is classified as a domestic supplier to the United States for defence purposes.

“The magnet supply chain is actually in a really good position, regardless of which (US) government comes in,” CEO Rowena Smith told Reuters.

Smith said that Australian firms can potentially access US Department of Defence funding under the newly set up Office of Strategic Capital.

“When I met with them, they were… very confident that they had bipartisan support,” she told Reuters on the sidelines of the International Mining and Resources Conference (IMARC) conference in Melbourne.

“They’re expecting to come out of this calendar year with momentum. They asked me to come back February and talk to them again. So yeah, we’re feeling very optimistic of regardless of what the outcome is,” she said.

Context

ASM has been building funds to finance the development of its Dubbo rare earths project in Australia’s New South Wales state. It estimated in late 2021 that the project would cost A$1.678 billion ($1.10 billion).

ASM has already received a letter of interest for a debt funding package of up to $400 million from Canada’s official export credit agency and a promises for $600 million from the US Export-Import bank.

The Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital has recently been set up to distribute funds that are meant to seed investment in the defense industrial base’s supply chain.

What’s next

ASM is targeting a final investment decision for the first half of 2026 although a study is underway to potentially fast track production.

($1 = 1.5223 Australian dollars)

(By Melanie Burton; Editing by Michael Perry)

Australia is the world’s biggest supplier of seaborne iron ore, accounting for around half of global supply. But the Pilbara grades dug up from the country’s west are generally regarded as too low to be turned into steel without using coal.

That means as steel makers decarbonize, they are turning elsewhere for iron ore, which could hit Australia’s top export earner, Otranto said at the IMARC conference in Sydney.

“The message is, take the opportunity,” he said on the sidelines of the conference. “We have an abundance of solar and wind… so the logical next step is to get into downstream industries.”

Competition is growing from new green steel projects – made without the use of fossil fuels – in the Middle East, while Guinea’s giant Simandou iron ore mine is set to start up next year, he said.

“That’s a high grade deposit going straight into the steel mills in China,” he said of Simandou.

“Let’s not sit here with our head in the sand thinking it’s not going to happen again.”

Australia had the opportunity to help build Indonesia’s nickel industry but did not anticipate China’s speed and technical innovation, and its domestic industry suffered as a result.

“The Chinese … built the biggest nickel industry the world has ever seen and … took out an entire market sector in four years,” he said, referring to the transformation of Indonesia’s nickel industry into the world’s dominant supplier, driven by Chinese stainless steel giant Tsingshan.

That flood of supply has hammered nickel producers around the globe, including in New Caledonia and Australia.

Otranto said a similar scenario could play out in Australia’s iron ore industry which, along with the Australian government, was underplaying the threat to the sector and that government and industry need to collaborate to lower power costs in particular.

“We have to bring in Chinese manufacturing of solar panels and wind turbines, because they’re doing it better than anyone else,” he said. Automating robots for installation would cut labour costs to help make green iron production economic, he said.

The world needs Australia’s iron ore to sustain steel production so answers must be found.

“We cannot lose the opportunity to place the 600 to 700 million tons of iron ore that Australia ships out,” he said. “So we have to work unbelievably hard, even harder than we’re doing now.”

The world’s fourth largest iron ore miner, Fortescue will use green hydrogen from solar farms at its Christmas Creek operations to start producing 2,000 tons per year of green iron using hydrogen next year.

On Monday, Brazilian miner Vale, the world’s second biggest iron ore producer, said it had partnered with China’s Jinnan Steel Group to build an iron ore beneficiation plant in Oman to make high quality pellet.

(By Melanie Burton; Editing by Sonali Paul and Lincoln Feast)

Cadia becomes Newmont’s first site globally to receive these awards after successfully meeting more than 30 criteria needed in critical areas including environment, community, human rights and governance, amongst others.

Cadia is currently host to Australia’s largest underground mine, and now becomes the third copper mine in the country to receive The Copper Mark. It is also the only operating molybdenum mine in Australia, thus becoming the first to achieve The Molybdenum Mark.

The Copper Mark represents the leading assurance framework to promote responsible, sustainable and ethical practices across the copper, molybdenum, nickel and zinc value chains.

“Meeting growing global demand for copper brings an obligation to sustainability and responsible mining which prioritizes environmental stewardship, social responsibility and economic development for the communities in which we operate,” commented Newmont’s chief safety and sustainability officer Suzy Retallack.

In achieving The Copper Mark, she said the company’s global customers can now choose to source copper concentrate from an independently evaluated mine that “meets the highest standards in environmental, social and governance practices, responding to the increasing demand for sustainable supply chains.”

With this, about 35% of Australia’s copper is produced at sites that have obtained The Copper Mark, noted Michèle Brülhart, The Copper Mark’s executive director.

The Cadia operation is located approximately 25 km south-southwest of Orange in New South Wales and 250 km west of Sydney. It comprises the Cadia East underground mine, one of the largest gold and copper deposits in the world, and the Ridgeway underground mine, which is currently in care and maintenance.

In 2020, Cadia entered into a 15-year renewable power purchase agreement (PPA) with Tilt Renewables Limited to buy 55% of the wind farm’s output. Now fully operational, Rye Park is supplying approximately half of Cadia’s power needs.

“Cadia’s commitment to the community supported an investment of almost A$6 million in the 18 months to December 2023 to support community projects, education and infrastructure,” Retallack said.

The fatal incident occurred at the SimFer port site of the project on Saturday and the company said is collaborating with its partners and relevant authorities to conduct a comprehensive investigation.

Chief executive Jakob Stausholm extended his condolences to the family, friends, colleagues and communities affected by the tragedy. 

This is Rio Tinto’s fifth fatality in 2024. Four employees died in January when a charter flight to the Diavik diamond mine in northern Canada crashed. Before this accident, Rio had five consecutive years without fatalities at its managed operations.

The world’s second largest miner obtained in July all necessary regulatory approvals to resume construction at its vast Simandou iron ore asset, the world’s biggest mining project.

The mine, which Rio is co-developing with a Chinese consortium, is set to be the world’s largest and highest grade new iron ore mine, adding around 5% to global seaborne supply when it comes on line. 

First production from Simandou is scheduled for next year. The mine will contribute an annual supply of nearly 120 million tonnes of high-quality iron ore once it reaches full capacity.

The total stock market valuation of the world’s biggest mining companies is up a fairly modest 8% year to end-September and despite the good run is still $240 billion below the peak hit in the second quarter of 2022. And judging by the performance of the top tier in the final quarter (BHP down 8% QTD, Rio Tinto –5%, Vale –3%, Glencore –5%, Newmont –9%, Zijin –5%, Freeport –7%) the gap won’t be closing anytime soon.

In contrast, Nvidia — the maker of chips highly prized for artificial intelligence (AI) computing — is up nearly 200% so far this year (and 2,600% over five). When comparing the graphics card maker’s stock valuation to the mining industry’s collective worth, it’s difficult not to wonder if something is not awry with how global investors appraise the industrial economy.  

Should Nvidia (or Microsoft or Apple for that matter) be worth more than twice the top 50 miners? Outside the top 50 the average market cap quickly shrinks to the low teens so Nvidia is in fact worth more than the entire listed mining industry. 

Even when extending the top 50 into metals and energy –  steel, aluminium and electricity companies often operate their own mines – Nvidia can still throw shade. BHP does not even crack the top 100 most valuable companies in the world and is worth less than Booking.com, and Temu and Zara’s owners, none of which can exactly be called the building blocks of the global economy. 

Nvidia briefly surpassed Apple on Friday to become the world’s most valuable company. Its market capitalization is approximately $3.5 trillion, just below Apple’s, which remains the highest-valued firm globally.

For the period ended Sept. 30, the battery metal producer reported underlying EBITDA loss of A$2.9 million ($1.9 million), compared with a profit of A$76.8 million in the June quarter.

The bottom line was affected by a 45% drop in IGO’s share of net profit from its 49% stake in lithium joint venture – Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia (TLEA), to A$37.1 million along with lower sales from the nickel business.

“Cashflows from TLEA were impacted by prevailing soft lithium market conditions, despite stronger-than-expected Greenbushes production as the operation worked through elevated site inventories,” analysts at Jefferies said in a note.

Lithium, essential for the production of EV batteries, has suffered from slower-than-expected uptake of EVs and plentiful supply.

Hence, taking into consideration the market conditions, IGO did not declare any dividend from the joint venture.

The lower quarterly profit from TLEA primarily reflected lower spodumene sales and an average realized price of $872 FOB Australia per metric ton from Greenbushes, down from $1,020 per ton in the prior quarter, the company said.

Greenbushes spodumene production was 406,000 tons for the quarter, beating Jefferies’ estimate by 11%.

($1 = 1.5135 Australian dollars)

(By Sneha Kumar; Editing by Stephen Coates and Rashmi Aich)

Ellison, who is managing director and a major shareholder, said the payments pre-dated the company’s 2006 listing, and came from overseas entities he and his business partners operated, and which sold mining equipment and parts. He did not declare the income from the supply contracts.

“There has been considerable media coverage since Oct. 19 and the board’s investigation has evolved to respond to statements that do not accord with the company’s understanding of the facts,” Mineral Resources said in a corporate statement Monday.

The company’s shares slumped 26% last week after a report that Ellison had struck a deal with the Australian Taxation Office to repay owed money.

(By Paul-Alain Hunt)

Australia’s biggest independent coal miner, which acquired two metallurgical mines from BHP last year for $4.1 billion, said a shortfall in global coal production with long-term output constraints and higher sea-borne demand from India is expected to lift prices.

“There have been some ongoing question marks about coal demand given the global focus on other sources of energy, but for the time being at least the numbers from Whitehaven today provided some near-term comfort to investors,” said Tim Waterer, market analyst at KCM Trade.

Shares of Whitehaven rose as much as 7.8% to A$6.92 by 2332 GMT and were on track for their best session since mid-August, while the benchmark stock index was up about 0.5%.

Total managed run-of-mine (ROM) production was 9.7 million metric tons for the three-month period ended September, beating a Visible Alpha consensus of 9.1 million tons and higher than 5.3 million tons a year ago.

The biggest contributing segment was Queensland coal mines, which Whitehaven bought from BHP and had said it would increase its exposure to markets in India and Southeast Asia.

In its second quarter of output, the Queensland mines reported ROM production of 5.3 million tons, up 11% from the June quarter.

“In Queensland, we are seeing productivity gains and cost improvements,” said CEO Paul Flynn.

Meanwhile, ROM production declined 18% at the coal miner’s New South Wales operations, and both output and sales are expected to be weighted more heavily towards the second half of the year.

Coal prices realized rose marginally to an average A$238 ($157.89) per ton, compared with A$224 a year earlier.

($1 = 1.5074 Australian dollars)

(By Sneha Kumar; Editing by Alan Barona, Rashmi Aich and Subhranshu Sahu)

Tykac’s Sev.en Group has taken advantage of cheap valuations to buy up coal power stations and mines in the US, Australia and Vietnam, as well as gas-fired plants in the UK. After building his fortune in the Czech Republic, Tykac is using the expansion to shield his wealth from European Union efforts to lead the world in giving up fossil fuels.

It’s also a bet that delays and snags in the transition to renewable energy will keep coal in the mix for years to come, at least outside Europe.

Having amassed foreign assets worth an estimated €3 billion ($3.3 billion) in the past five years, Sev.en is preparing for more and bigger deals, according to Alan Svoboda, chief executive officer of the group’s international business.

“We have much more in the pipeline than in the past, and we’re hoping to grow even faster than we have so far,” he said in an interview at the Prague headquarters of Sev.en Global Investments AS. “We look at hundreds of opportunities every year and submit dozens of binding bids.”

The Vales Point power station outside Sydney is one such example. The Czech company bought the coal-fired facility, which has a license to operate until 2029, two years ago. Yet looming electricity shortages might prompt Australian authorities to extend its lifespan until 2033, according to Svoboda. If that were to happen, it could boost profits, even if it requires additional investment.

“The entire energy sector can’t change overnight, as some people hoped,” the CEO said. “The Australians have realized that it is not totally safe to force a speedy decommissioning of coal plants, and that it is better to let market forces determine when their operation will no longer make business sense.”

As institutional shareholders, lenders and insurers flee environmentally harmful industries in droves, it remains unclear whether the company’s push into coal will pay off. Revenue at Sev.en Global Investments, which now accounts for over 70% of Tykac’s empire, jumped 23% last year to €1.85 billion. Still, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization fell 53% to €432 million as energy prices slid from the record levels notched in 2022.

Including his original Czech company, Sev.en Ceska Energie AS, Tykac now has about 6,000 employees worldwide and a net worth of around $3 billion, according to estimates from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Tykac, who declined to personally comment for this article, started out in business after the Velvet Revolution in 1989, when then-Czechoslovakia ditched communism. His first company was a computer manufacturer, and he later began investing in other local businesses and banks.

After 2006, Tykac transitioned into coal mines and power and heating plants around the Czech Republic. His Pocerady station, near the country’s northern border with Germany, is one of the country’s biggest polluters and has been a frequent target of environmental activists since it went online in the 1970s. It accounts for almost 6% of the country’s entire electricity production.

Unlike many peers, Tykac is not trying to greenwash his image. Sev.en Global Investment’s website describes its business model as focused on risky, high-return projects. It quotes Tykac as saying that his investments are “crucial for our economies” even as others might avoid them for ethical reasons.

“Sufficiency of reliable, safe and affordable electricity,” it reads, “is one of the basic conditions for the existence of today’s civilization.”

Svoboda joined Sev.en in 2018 to take care of its overseas expansion. The 52-year-old former executive at Czech utility CEZ AS says the EU effort to phase out coal is posing “elevated regulatory risk” to companies such as Sev.en.

“We are largely losing interest in Europe, except for the UK,” Svoboda said. “We are drawn to America and Australia.”

While the focus remains on developed nations with stable political systems, Tykac’s empire is also expanding into communist-ruled Vietnam, where it has agreed to buy 70% of a coal plant from American and Chinese investors. The 1.2 gigawatt facility outside Hanoi comes with a supply contract that hedges the owner against swings in exchange rates and coal prices until 2055.

Sev.en is hoping that the investment could be followed by expansion into places like India, Indonesia and Malaysia, according to Svoboda. Many countries in the region aren’t planning to ditch coal anytime soon, and their governments are often willing to compensate foreign owners with long-term guarantees.

“We thought it was time to try something new,” said Svoboda. “We would like to replicate our investment in Vietnam in other places across South-East Asia.”

It does remain easier to secure funding for green projects, which is one reason why the group is also seeking to diversify into industries such as electricity storage and mining minerals, including those used in batteries. In Australia, it is about to start producing potassium-sulfate fertilizer made via an environmentally friendly process.

Over the past 18 months, Sev.en has opened offices in New York, London and Sydney in an effort to expand its global footprint. “We’ve been looking at bigger and bigger transactions,” said Svoboda, adding that the “sweet spot” for acquisitions is currently between €500 million and €1 billion.

Despite the rising appetite, Sev.en remains selective, according to Svoboda.

“Rather than having a broad portfolio of many smaller items,” he said, “our goal is to own a limited number of crown jewels that we go all-in on.”

(By Krystof Chamonikolas)

The agreement was signed in Brasília, the capital city, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in attendance.

In February, a federal judge ruled that the companies must pay up to 47.6 billion reais ($8.4 billion) in damages for the dam collapse, though the decision is still subject to appeal.

The Fundão dam burst occurred on November 5, 2015. Approximately 40 million cubic meters of mining waste destroyed communities and livelihoods, contaminated the Rio Doce and its tributaries, and reached the Atlantic Ocean.

In total, 49 municipalities were affected, either directly or indirectly, and 19 people lost their lives.

According to BHP, the agreement builds on the existing remediation and compensation efforts by the Renova Foundation in Brazil, which have thus far totalled 38 billion reais ($7.9 billion).

In addition to the amount already spent by Renova, the agreement includes 100 billion reais ($18 billion) in installments over 20 years to public authorities, municipalities, Indigenous peoples and traditional communities. Additional performance obligations for Samarco, estimated at 32 billion reais ($5.8 billion), are also included.

Payments to be completed over 15 years

The compensation covers programs for universal water sanitation, health initiatives, economic recovery, infrastructure improvements, and investment funds in education, culture, sports and food security.

The agreement also includes compensation payments of 95,000 reais ($17,000) per person for eligible fishermen and farmers in the affected areas.

“BHP Brasil’s expected outflows under the agreement align with BHP’s FY2024 Samarco dam failure provision of $6.5 billion, and no update is required to the existing provision at this time,” BHP stated.

“The Samarco Fundão dam failure was a terrible tragedy. It should never have happened and must never be forgotten,” said BHP CEO Mike Henry.

Payments are expected to be completed over approximately 15 years, with the first installment of 5 billion reais ($880 million) due within 30 days. The agreement remains subject to approval by the Brazilian Supreme Court.

BHP still faces a potential $47 billion payout in damages in a lawsuit in London’s High Court. The settlement in Brazil will not impact the UK case.

The plaintiffs include over 600,000 Brazilian citizens, 46 municipalities and 2,000 businesses, all challenging BHP’s role in the disaster.

In July, BHP and Vale agreed to equally share the cost of any damages resulting from the UK proceedings.

Shares of BHP rose 0.7% by 12:00 p.m. EDT. Vale stocks were up 3.4%.

Read More: BHP says claim it put profit over safety ‘unjustified’ in Brazilian dam collapse case

Technical teams from both companies will work closely on exploring pelletizing using the Pilbara fines and the application of biomass.

Rio’s flagship product Pilbara blended fines are typically used to make sintered ore, used in blast furnaces to produce hot metal.

And pelletization usually requires higher grade iron ore, which is helpful for reducing carbon emissions along the steel value chain.

“We are pleased to have reached a new milestone in steel carbon reduction … the low carbon transition in the steel industry needs high-quality raw material and massive technological innovation,” said Simon Farry, head of steel decarbonization at Rio.

Upstream mining giants have accelerated cooperation with their big consumers on decarbonizing the steel value chain to cope with climate change.

Rio Tinto last year signed a MoU with China Baowu, the world’s biggest steelmaker by volume, to develop projects aimed at enabling lower grade ore to be used in low-carbon steelmaking.

It’s rival BHP Group and Chinese steel company HBIS Group Co Ltd, agreed last March to trial carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies at the Chinese firm’s steel mills.

(By Amy Lv and Colleen Howe)

Shares of the Australia-based critical minerals miner jumped more than 20% in New York trading on Thursday afternoon before easing down.

The approval ends a more-than six-year review process during which regulators, ioneer and conservationists tussled over the fate of a rare flower found at the mine site, a tension that exposed the sometimes competing priorities between climate change mitigation efforts and biodiversity protection.

The permit, which had been expected by the end of the year, comes amid a flurry of recent moves by Biden officials to support critical minerals production and offset China’s market dominance.

It also unlocks a $700 million loan from the US Department of Energy, as well as a $490 million equity investment from Sibanye Stillwater to fund the project.

“This is a science-based decision,” Laura Daniel-Davis, the Interior Department’s acting deputy secretary, told Reuters. “We’re trying to send a signal that there’s no topic with greater importance than addressing climate change.”

The US Bureau of Land Management, which is controlled by the Interior Department, on Thursday issued the Rhyolite Ridge project’s record of decision – essentially the mine’s permit – and said the project will “include significant protections for the local ecosystem” and help create hundreds of jobs in the rural region.

The project, roughly 225 miles (362 km) north of Las Vegas, contains enough lithium to power roughly 370,000 EVs each year. Construction is slated to begin next year, with production commencing by 2028, a timeline that would make Rhyolite Ridge one of the largest US lithium producers alongside Albemarle and Lithium Americas.

The US Geological Survey has labeled lithium a critical mineral vital for the US economy and national security.

“We’re proud to be the first US lithium mine permitted by the Biden administration,” James Calaway, ioneer’s chairman, told Reuters.

The project will extract lithium as well as boron – a chemical used to make ceramics and soaps – from a clay-like deposit. The lithium will be processed on site into two main derivatives used to make batteries, and the company said it plans to recycle half of all the water used at the site, higher than the industry average.

Ford and a joint venture between Toyota and Panasonic have agreed to buy lithium from the mine.

Endangered flower

In addition to the lithium and boron deposits, Rhyolite Ridge is home to the Tiehm’s buckwheat flower, which is found nowhere else on the planet and was declared an endangered species in 2022.

The Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) and some other conservation groups thus oppose ioneer’s project, saying it would push the flower to the brink of extinction.

After the permit was announced on Thursday, the CBD said it plans to sue the federal government to block the project.

“By greenlighting this mine, the Bureau of Land Management is abandoning its duty to protect endangered species like Tiehm’s buckwheat and it’s making a mockery of the Endangered Species Act,” said the CBD’s Patrick Donnelly.

The Interior Department’s Daniel-Davis declined to comment on the potential litigation, but noted the changes made to the mine’s operating plan as a result of the permit review process, including new design plans and propagation efforts that included construction of a greenhouse. Department officials also released an opinion stating their belief that the mine would not harm the flower.

“We have run a transparent process,” said Daniel-Davis. “The company was willing to reconfigure its entire project to take into account Tiehm’s buckwheat.”

The death of more than 17,000 flowers near the mine site in 2020 sparked allegations of a “premeditated” attack. Ioneer denied harming the flowers. The government later blamed thirsty squirrels.

(By Ernest Scheyder; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

The Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission on Nov. 4 is to hear an application filed by those companies and others to potentially set the royalty rate. They have proposed a 1.82% royalty, while landowners are seeking 12.5%, according to BMO Capital Markets mining analyst Greg Jones.

The landowners’ proposal is “a level that would strain project cash flows based on our modelling,” Jones said in a note on Thursday. “We assume a 2.5% royalty in our base case, within the range of royalties applied in other jurisdictions. We anticipate the commission will take a balanced approach to support development of Arkansas’s lithium industry.”

This week, the United States Geological Survey and the Arkansas government said they’d found enough lithium in brine in the Smackover Formation within the state to supply global demand. They estimated the amount in the formation’s porous limestone left from an ancient sea at 5 million tonnes to 19 million tonnes. Scientists used water testing and machine learning to calculate the resource. The formation stretches from Texas to Florida, suggesting there could be even more lithium.

Standard project

The discovery comes as Standard and partner Equinor (NYSE: EQNR), Norway’s state-owned petroleum company, develop their South West Arkansas project in the same geologic structure towards a definitive feasibility study and formal investment decision next year. Equinor paid $30 million in May for 45% of Standard’s lithium projects in southwest Arkansas and East Texas, plus a pledge to invest $130 million more in the projects if they go ahead.

The US Department of Energy said on Sept. 20 it’s considering funding the project with as much as $225 million, one of the largest ever US government grants for critical minerals.

It’s part of the Biden administration’s push to source domestically more of the critical minerals needed for the energy transition. The departments of energy and defence as well as the Export-Import Bank are potentially able to allocate billions of dollars in funding for projects from mining and processing to finished products like vehicles. Even projects in Canada are getting financed. But the industry faces significant challenges as the price of lithium has crashed over the past two years.

Royalty faceoff

The South Arkansas Minerals Association, which represents the landowners, says the companies haven’t provided enough financial information to justify their proposed rate, BMO reports.

An Oct. 11 pre-hearing referenced some of the measures in state law for calculating the rate, such as the brine has to be profitably extracted before a rate can be applied, BMO said. But even the hearing officer noted it was unclear what evidence the commission would require to ensure a fair and equitable rate.

The companies’ proposed 1.82% royalty is based on precedent from a 2007 commission order, BMO said. The ruling determined the additional compensation attributable was 5.65¢ per barrel of brine. That equalled 1.82% of the per-acre value of the bromine extracted.

Other jurisdictions have different rates, according to BMO. California charges per tonne of lithium carbonate-equivalent, from $400 to $800, depending on production totals. Nevada has a 5% tax on net lithium sales.

Western Australia levies a 5% royalty on revenue from sales of spodumene concentrate, which is from hard rock lithium ore, not brine. Argentinian provinces apply a 3% royalty to extracted minerals. Brazil charges a 2% royalty on gross income from lithium sales with deductions allowed for taxes paid on commercial sales.

Direct extraction

The projects in Arkansas, and in some other places where there is underground brine, such as Chile and Alberta, plan to use the emerging technology of direct lithium extraction (DLE). It’s somewhat like pumping crude oil, which would seem to be an opportunity for fossil fuel companies intent on expanding their energy focus. Miners can also benefit from vast petro-coffers. The combination is already tapping some Prairie former oil fields that have brine.

ExxonMobil is evaluating potential production costs after drilling exploratory wells at the 486-sq.-km Mobil Lithium project on the Smackover Formation this year. It plans initial production of the battery metal in 2027. By 2030 it wants to produce enough for 1 million vehicles.

In southern California, Occidental Petroleum and a unit of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) have begun feasibility testing to produce battery-grade lithium from the brine of 10 geothermal power plants.

In Alberta, E3 Lithium (TSXV: ETL) is advancing its $2.5 billion capex Clearwater project on one of Canada’s largest resources of the battery metal. It’s tapping former oil wells once pumped by ExxonMobil unit Imperial Oil (TSX: IMO), which is also helping fund the prefeasibility-stage project.

DLE advantages

DLE may cost more than using conventional brine evaporation ponds, but it can produce the battery metal in hours instead of months, can recover around double the metal, and occupies a much smaller footprint.

In Chile, where evaporation ponds dominate, heavyweight producer SQM (NYSE: SQM) has been testing various DLE technologies including a collaboration with French chemical company Adionics.

Their trials have shown recovery rates reaching up to 98% from brine at the Salar de Atacama. SQM aims to integrate DLE into its operations as part of Chile’s new public-private model for lithium production​.

BHP walked away from a $49 billion bid to acquire Anglo in May after it was rebuffed three times. With a six-month block on another approach set to expire at the end of November, a deal is again under scrutiny.

Anglo was able to convince investors during BHP’s approach that it had a better plan to grow value, focused on shedding underperforming platinum, diamonds and coal to focus on copper, a metal key for the energy transition.

If that succeeds, the higher value that comes with copper assets may help keep Anglo safe, one portfolio manager at a Cape Town fund manager said.

But the longer it takes to achieve a transformation, the more likely it is that investors will be tempted by another bid.

Investors with shares in both companies told Reuters that even though they expect BHP CEO Mike Henry to renew his pursuit for the London-listed miner, the timing and even the rationale for such an approach could be shaped by whether Anglo can grow beyond the grasp of cash-rich rivals.

Anglo CEO Duncan Wanblad is rushing to sell coking coal mines in Australia and nickel assets in Brazil while spinning off platinum mines in South Africa. The company is also weighing whether to sell or separately list its De Beers diamonds unit.

Anglo’s world-class copper assets in Latin America are the prize for rivals seeking increased exposure to copper.

But its copper mines are still dogged by operational issues. On Thursday, it said copper output declined 13% in the third quarter, though the company remains on course to meet this year’s output guidance of 730,000 tons to 790,000 tons.

Anglo declined to comment. BHP did not respond to emailed requests for comment.

Choosing the moment

Anglo’s shares rose as much as 4.3% in London on Monday amid a broad uptick in mining stocks, but have shed most of the premium they added in the wake of BHP’s approach.

If Anglo’s valuation takes time to catch up with its restructuring, it could present a golden opportunity for BHP.

According to a source at a top investor in both companies, a restructured Anglo creates more value for BHP, which is still wary of the risks associated with absorbing South African assets.

“If I was BHP, I would say let Anglo do most of the heavy lifting, the restructuring it promised it will do by end 2025,” the source told Reuters.

Any potential new bid should come when some of the restructuring is expected to completed by June or July next year, they added.

BHP may have to wait until Anglo spins off its platinum business by mid-2025 to make the deal less complex, UBS Group analysts said. “We expect Anglo to re-rate as the group simplifies,” UBS said. “If not, we see potential for another takeover approach.”

Christiaan Bothma, an investment analyst at Johannesburg-based money manager Sanlam Private Wealth, which has shares in both companies, told Reuters it would “make sense” for BHP to wait for Anglo to do the asset separation for them.

But he added: “The counter argument to this would be if they wait (too) long, Anglo’s valuation premium may be too high or iron ore prices too low (BHP’s primary currency).”

(By Felix Njini; Editing by Veronica Brown, Pratima Desai and Jan Harvey)

In combined battery capacity deployed – a better indicator of battery materials demand than unit sales alone – the global electric car market expanded by 22% so far this year. 

In total, 505.6 GWh of fresh battery power hit the globe’s roads from January through August, according to data from Toronto-based EV supply chain research firm Adamas Intelligence.

The robust growth rate also comes despite a noticeable swing towards hybrid vehicles, which have inherently smaller batteries and therefore contained metal. 

The combined battery capacity of plug-in hybrid vehicles steered onto roads globally for the first time this year is up 70% versus a must more sedate pace for full electric passenger vehicles of 15%. At the same time the average battery capacity of plug-ins is also rising, up 14% this year to 23kWh, more than a third of the average full electric vehicle.

For miners supplying the EV battery industry, the news remain negative: when pairing metals demand with prices in the supply chain, declines this year are brutal. 

The latest data based on EV registrations in over 110 countries show the sales weighted average monthly dollar value of the lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite contained in the batteries​​ of the average EV based on global end-user registrations, battery capacity and chemistries.

Put it all together and the raw materials bill for the average EV is now down to $537 compared to $1,342 in August 2023 and a monthly peak of more than $1,900 at the beginning of last year, according to Adamas Intelligence analysis.      

The downtrend is led by lithium where the sales weighted average value per EV is down 75% over the past year to $236 and cobalt, which at little over $46 is 42% below the value reached in August 2023. Manganese is the only battery raw material in positive territory this year, up 3% but the raw material is also down 8% compare to the same month last year. For anode material, graphite loadings and values have held mostly steady at just under $26 per average EV.

The value of nickel in the average EV battery is down 26% as LFP battery chemistries continue to take global markets. LFP batteries represented 42% of the global total in terms of capacity deployed in GWh in August.

That compares to a 32% share during the same month last year, more than offsetting the long-running trend towards high-nickel cathodes, and the growing popularity of NCM batteries for larger plug-in and range-extending hybrids, where the energy density of nickel-based cathodes makes more sense given the weight of these vehicles. 

For a fuller analysis of the battery metals market check out the latest Northern Miner print and digital editions. 

* Frik Els is Editor at Large for MINING.COM and Head of Adamas Inside, providing news and analysis based on Adamas Intelligence data.

Anglo said its copper output fell 13% in the July to September quarter, while rough diamond production decreased by 25% on cuts due to prolonged lower demand.

Its De Beers diamonds unit is exploring options for further output cuts in future, Anglo said.

For the first nine months of 2024, copper output fell 4% to 575,000 tons and diamond production was down 21% at 18.9 million carats.

Anglo still expects to produce 730,000-790,000 tons of copper and 23-26 million carats of rough diamonds this year, even as it assesses additional production cuts going forward.

Its shares, which have risen around 18% this year, opened up 2.2%.

The mining giant is restructuring its business to mainly focus on energy transition metal copper after fending off a $49 billion takeover offer from bigger rival BHP Group in May.

Copper will make up 60% of Anglo’s business after it sells its Australian steelmaking coal assets and nickel mines in Brazil, as well as divesting De Beers and its platinum business Amplats in South Africa.

Apart from its copper assets in Chile, Anglo will also retain iron ore mines in South Africa and Brazil, as well as the Woodsmith fertilizer project in the United Kingdom, which it has now slowed down.

Anglo said steelmaking coal’s production fell by 6% in the third quarter after shutting its Grosvenor mine in Queensland due to an underground fire.

The London-listed miner, the world’s third-largest exporter of metallurgical coal, lowered its yearly production guidance to 14-15.5 million tons from a previous forecast of 15-17 million.

Anglo said the final round of bidders for the coal assets was in place and it expected to announce the sale agreement within months.

(By Clara Denina and Felix Njini; Editing by Stephen Coates and Mark Potter)

“The Australian Securities and Investments Commission is aware of the situation, is monitoring developments and will be making initial inquiries,” a spokesperson for the watchdog said in an emailed statement, without giving further details.

The Australian Financial Review reported ASIC’s probe on Wednesday. The watchdog will look at whether the miner’s directors breached their duties, and require the company to hand over a report commissioned by the board to investigate the allegations, the newspaper said, without citing sources.

Ellison, who is managing director of Mineral Resources and still a major shareholder, said the payments pre-dated the company’s 2006 listing, and came from overseas entities he and his business partners operated that sold mining equipment and parts. He did not declare the income from the supply contracts.

The mining magnate described his actions in a statement on Monday as “a poor decision and a serious lapse of judgment.” He had subsequently “voluntarily” disclosed the matters to the Australian Taxation Office in full, with all outstanding tax, penalties and interest repaid.

Shares in Mineral Resources, which has operations including iron ore and lithium production, have dropped more than 20% so far this week following an initial report by the AFR over the weekend. That’s wiped almost A$2 billion ($1.33 billion) from the company’s market value since Monday.

The company’s board said earlier this week it retained confidence in Ellison, and would update the market once it had completed internal inquiries.

Earlier this year, Ellison — a larger-than-life figure even by the standards of Australian business — made headlines after stating he wanted to prevent employees at the company’s office from leaving the building to buy coffee.

(By Sybilla Gross)

The world’s fourth-largest iron ore miner shipped 47.7 million tonnes (Mt) of iron ore for the quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with 45.9 Mt shipped a year ago, exceeding a Visible Alpha consensus of 47.4 Mt.

In comparison, the company shipped 53.7 Mt in the previous quarter ending June 30.

The Perth-based miner also reaffirmed its iron ore shipments guidance for fiscal 2025.

(By Echha Jain and Shivangi Lahiri; Editing by Tasim Zahid)

Other notable names include Anglo American (LON: AAL), Newmont (TSX: NGT, NYSE: NEM), Vale (NYSE: VALE), Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX, NYSE: AEM), Glencore (LON: GLEN), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) and Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, TECK.B, NYSE: TECK).

To make the list, Forbes teamed up with market research firm Statista and surveyed more than 300,000 employees in over 50 countries who work for multinational corporate groups that meet the following criteria: employ more than 1,000 workers and operate in at least two of the six continental regions (Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, North America and Oceania).

Respondents were asked whether they would recommend their company to family or friends, and to rate it based on such criteria as salary, talent development and remote work options. They could also rate companies they knew through their own industry knowledge and through friends and family who worked there.

Survey responses were then analyzed and tallied — along with data from the previous three years — with a heavier weight placed on the more recent data and evaluations from current employees.

While the number of honorees per country varied based on the population and qualifying companies in each area, a total of 850 companies spanning 48 countries earned a ranking on Forbes’ final list.

BHP topped all mining companies under the raw materials category, with a ranking of 90. After that, Anglo American was the highest ranked company at No. 251, followed by Newmont at No. 474, Vale at No. 502, Agnico at No. 649, Glencore at No. 675, AngloGold at No. 789, Teck at No. 797 and Poland’s KGHM at No. 823.

Cash zinc contracts are trading at a $24.09 premium to three-month futures, in a pricing structure known as backwardation that’s a hallmark sign that spot demand is exceeding supply. The spread was trading at a discount as recently as last week, and is now at the highest level since 2023.

The zinc market has been rattled by a series of mine setbacks this year, dramatically tightening supplies of raw zinc ores known as concentrates. Demand for the metal has suffered during an industrial downturn in China and Europe, but the supply ructions have been large enough to underpin an 17% gain in zinc prices on the LME this year.

The key question among analysts and traders is whether zinc smelters — squeezed by rising raw material costs and weak end-use demand — will be forced to cut production. That could constrict spot metal supplies and fuel further price gains. The backwardation signals that buyers in the LME market are increasingly alert to that possibility.

Within the past week, one individual buyer has acquired between 50% and 80% of the readily available zinc inventories in the LME’s warehousing network, according to data from the exchange. And in the futures market, one entity has also bought up at least 40% of the main November-delivery zinc contracts, which would entitle them to scoop up more inventory than there is available in the system, if held to expiry.

“Has this tightness been accentuated by changes in trader positioning? Maybe, but there’s a fundamental basis for it because we’re simply not mining enough zinc,” Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, said by phone from London. “I can see why it’s happening, because on the raw-material side it’s the tightest of all the base metals.”

Backwardations can emerge quickly in individual price spreads as large buyers emerge on the LME, and they can dissipate just as rapidly if and when those inventories and futures positions are sold back into the market. But the tightness isn’t limited to near-dated months, with a steep backwardation emerging all the way out to 2027 in recent trading sessions — suggesting that investors, traders and consumers could be bracing for a longer-term squeeze on supply.

Global mine production fell by 4.2% in the first eight months of the year, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed on Wednesday. Meanwhile, refined zinc output has fallen 1%, but BMO’s Hamilton said it’s likely that more meaningful smelter cutbacks will be seen moving into next year.

Bullish investors have been betting on a slower-than-expected recovery in mined supplies following a series of cuts to production guidance, including a downward revision by Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. earlier this month, according to Zeng Tong, an analyst at Jinrui Futures Co.

The latest knock to mine supply came on Friday, as Sibanye Stillwater Ltd. said that it expects operations at its Century zinc mine in Australia to be suspended until mid-November after a bushfire damaged some equipment.

Investors might be rushing to build long positions following the Century news, said Han Zhen, an analyst at researcher Shanghai Metals Market. There is also talk about possible production cuts at European smelters due to higher electricity costs over winter, she said.

Zinc was down 0.4% at $3,126 a ton on the LME as of 1:32 p.m. in London, after climbing 2% on Tuesday. Other metals were mixed, with copper down 1.2% to $9,470 a ton, while aluminum rose 0,3%.

Column: Zinc facing supply deficit as mine output falls again

Prices for alumina have surged by more than 20% so far this month and are now within striking distance of the record of $707.75 set in 2018, according to pricing agency Fastmarkets Ltd.

The rally has been building all year due to a string of disruptions along the sprawling global supply chain, from Australia to Jamaica. To make aluminum, raw ores known as bauxite are refined into alumina, which is then smelted into pure metal. The latest shock came earlier this month, when Guinea blocked Emirates Global Aluminium’s bauxite exports, sowing panic among buyers who are now scrambling to snap up alumina supplies.

As a result, the aluminum industry in China — the world’s biggest producer of the metal used in everything from drink cans to airplane parts — is coming under strain. China relies heavily on Guinea for bauxite, and smelters are being squeezed as alumina costs soar while prices for the finished product haven’t risen as quickly.

In the worst-case scenario, aluminum smelters could need to curtail production to limit losses, tightening metal supplies and underpinning a rally in aluminum prices. Analysts are hopeful that alumina output will rebound before that happens, but conditions on the ground are deteriorating fast.

Chinese port inventories of alumina have plunged to the lowest levels since at least 2015. With spot cargoes disappearing fast, traders and smelters have been approaching other sellers in western markets that they don’t usually buy from, according to people familiar with the matter. In some cases buyers are queuing up outside alumina plants, according to industry researcher Mysteel Global.

Trading in alumina futures has surged in Shanghai, bringing in a new cohort of eager buyers as smelters and physical traders dash to obtain dwindling supplies.

“For months, the market has been one accident or event away from a major price move,” Duncan Hobbs, head of research at metals trading house Concord Resources Ltd., said by phone. “The Guinea situation has provided the catalyst for another step-up in prices, and it sets the stage for a tighter market and a deeper deficit.”

The latest turmoil offers a fresh reminder that a handful of companies and countries have outsized influence in one of the world’s most ubiquitous metals.

A wave of Chinese investment in Guinea over the last decade has led to surge in bauxite production in the West African country. China’s industry — which produces about 60% of the world’s alumina and aluminum — now sources 70% of its import needs from the nation.

Concerns about Guinea’s dominance in bauxite rose to the fore during a coup in 2021. Since then, the nation’s ruling military junta has sought to leverage its mineral wealth by compelling miners to invest in alumina plants in-country as well.

“The export ban is likely to be somewhat of a shakedown of mining companies to both increase royalties on bauxite, and to accelerate investment in promised alumina refineries in Guinea,” BMO Capital Markets analysts Colin Hamilton and George Heppel said in an emailed note.

Emirates Global Aluminium signed a preliminary deal to build an alumina refinery in Guinea in June, working alongside Aluminium Corporation of China, commonly known as Chalco. But by building additional alumina refining capacity there, the companies could constrain bauxite supplies that would otherwise go to their existing alumina plants.

EGA is still seeking clarity on the exact reason for the stoppage, but it believes there’s no legal justification for the action based on its progress in developing the alumina refinery, the company said in an emailed statement. Colonel Kaba Camara, a spokesperson for Guinea’s General Directorate of Customs, declined to comment on the matter.

“This growing dependence on Guinea leaves room for market shocks,” Morgan Stanley analysts led by Amy Gower said in an emailed note. “While suspensions like this are often short-lived, it highlights the thin safety buffer in the bauxite market.”

The consensus among analysts is that recent disruptions in Australia and elsewhere will be resolved before smelters will need to start shutting down, particularly due to the hefty costs involved in doing so. But further disruptions shouldn’t be ruled out, according to Concord’s Hobbs.

“In the next 12 months the alumina market balance should ease significantly, and it’s hard not to take the fundamental position that prices will fall,” he said. “But the alumina market is starting from a much deeper deficit than appears popularly appreciated, so there will be more catch-up to do to make the market square again.”

Aluminum prices rose as much as 1.9% to $2,644 on the London Metal Exchange on Tuesday, while other metals were mixed.

Read More: China to extend record aluminum output amid ample power

The rare earths company has agreed to purchase an 80% interest in these three projects by investing A$3 million ($2m) over three years, Havilah said. This investment includes a minimum of A$1 million in the first year for exploration and development activities.

The three assets, located in the uranium-rich Curnamona province, are situated near two operating in-situ leach (ISL) mines at Honeymoon, owned by Boss Energy (ASX: BOE), and Four Mile, owned by the private company Heathgate Resources.

“These agreements with HRE provide a way for Havilah to monetize a portion of its remaining uranium assets, for which it is currently receiving neither market recognition nor value,” said the company’s technical director, Chris Giles.

Havilah will retain 100% ownership of its exploration licenses and mineral rights, excluding rare earth elements and scandium at the Radium Hill extensions. Heavy Rare Earths will assume responsibility for further exploration expenditures and fieldwork.

Demand for uranium has surged after more than 20 nations committed to tripling nuclear capacity by 2050 at the COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai late last year.

Canada, Australia, and the United States have led the sector’s revival this year, with companies announcing production increases and the restart of previously halted projects.

Shares of the Swedish company were down 3.3% at 1032 GMT.

Sandvik, among the first of the Nordic industrials to report quarterly results, is considered a reliable indicator of demand given its broad customer base.

Quarterly order intake excluding acquisitions rose 2% organically to 28.8 billion Swedish crowns ($2.73 billion), driven by solid demand in the mining and software businesses despite challenges in other segments.

“The softer demand was broad-based, but most negative in Europe, and the low demand from the automotive industry notable in all regions,” CEO Stefan Widing said in a statement.

JPMorgan analysts said the results missed expectations across key metrics, hit by tough demand environment especially in Sandvik’s cutting tools and infrastructure units, while mining remained solid.

“The earlier hoped for improvement in markets condition has clearly not come through,” they wrote in a note to clients.

China’s stimulus package, which aims to refinance local government debt to boost construction but lacks specific spending details, has sparked concerns of lower demand for mining equipment makers like Sandvik.

Widing told reporters on a call that it was too early to assess the full impact of the stimulus package, but said he viewed it as a positive step that could help revive economic activity in China.

Sandvik’s adjusted operating profit fell 7% from a year earlier to 5.38 billion crowns in the third quarter, missing a mean forecast of 5.68 billion crowns from analysts polled by LSEG.

Items affecting comparability, mainly restructuring costs, had a negative impact of 455 million crowns on its unadjusted figures.

($1 = 10.5315 Swedish crowns)

(By Jesus Calero; Editing by Milla Nissi)

Gold pared gains after reaching a fresh record high amid tensions in the Middle East and the approaching US presidential election.

Bullion rose as much as 0.7% before retreating as some investors booked profits after the precious metal’s four-day winning streak. It breached the $2,700-an-ounce threshold last week, with analysts attributing gains to haven demand amid uncertainty around the outcome of the US election and ongoing worries over the Middle East. Israel has been discussing its attack on Iran after a Hezbollah drone exploded near Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private home at the weekend.

Silver advanced as much as 1.7% on Monday to the highest since 2012 before surrendering those gains.

Gold has hit successive all-time highs in recent months and is up by more than 30% this year. Along with haven demand and US political uncertainty, the rally has been fueled by robust central-bank buying and expectations of US interest-rate cuts. Lower rates are often seen as bullish for non-interest bearing gold.

“The simple bottom line is that gold thrives on uncertainty,” said Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia at StoneX. “The lack of clarity over the medium-term direction of US foreign policy is adding to nervousness.”

Meanwhile, money managers have increased net-long positions in gold, while investors have added to exchange-traded fund holdings in recent sessions. SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest bullion-backed ETF, registered the biggest weekly inflow since March. Gold futures may rise to average $3,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025, Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.

Spot gold was little change at $2,721.31 an ounce at 4:42 p.m. in London. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index and US 10-year Treasury yield gained. Palladium and platinum fell.

Read More: Economic growth the main driver of long-term gold price, WGC research suggests

The trial, expected to last up to 12 weeks, will determine whether BHP is legally responsible for the collapse of the Fundão tailings dam in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The structure failure caused a massive flood that claimed 19 lives, destroyed villages and severely polluted water sources for local communities. The dam was owned by Samarco, a joint venture between BHP and Brazilian mining giant Vale (NYSE: VALE).

The case has been winding its way through the English judicial system for six years, with various judges holding conflicting opinions on whether the case can proceed. In 2022, appeal judges cleared the path for a full trial to take place.

The plaintiffs in the case include more than 600,000 Brazilian citizens, 46 municipalities and 2,000 businesses, all challenging BHP’s role in the disaster. Lawyers representing the victims argued on Monday that BHP has been attempting to evade its responsibility.

The world’s largest mining company is disputing liability, arguing that the London lawsuit duplicates legal proceedings and reparation programs in Brazil, and should be dismissed.

It also claims that nearly $8 billion has already been paid to those affected through the Renova Foundation, with around $1.7 billion going to claimants in the English case.

BHP’s lawyers stated in court that no law or contract imposes a duty of safety on the parent company of a non-controlling shareholder or the other parent company in the same group. They also argued the miner did not breach any safety duty, nor did its actions cause the collapse.

BHP further described parts of the lawsuit as “implausible or exaggerated.”

Settlement in Brazil

This trial comes shortly after BHP and Vale announced they were in talks with Brazilian authorities regarding a potential settlement of $31.7 billion to compensate for the damage caused to people, communities, and the environment.

Pogust Goodhead, the law firm representing the plaintiffs in London, said that the settlement talks in Brazil will not affect the UK case. 

“The timing of these negotiations only highlights how the companies responsible for Brazil’s largest environmental disaster are doing everything possible to prevent the victims from obtaining justice. It reflects the same shameful conduct they have displayed over the past nine years,” the firm said in a statement.

The multi-week hearing, the largest group litigation in English legal history, will also examine whether Brazilian municipalities can bring legal action, the effect of any agreements made by English claimants with BHP, and whether the claims were filed too late.

BHP and Vale agreed in July to equally share the cost of any damages related to proceedings in the UK.

Mineral Resources Ltd. has begun an investigation into undeclared payments made to companies owned by its tycoon founder, Chris Ellison, sending its shares down as much as 14%.

Ellison, who is managing director of Mineral Resources and still a major shareholder, said the payments pre-dated the company’s 2006 listing, and came from overseas entities he and his business partners operated, and which sold mining equipment and parts. He did not declare the income from the supply contracts.

“Regrettably, revenue generated by the overseas entities that we were beneficiaries of was not disclosed to the Australian Taxation Office at that time,” Ellison said in a statement on Monday. “This was a poor decision and a serious lapse of judgment.”

According to a report in the Australian Financial Review over the weekend, Ellison struck a deal with the Australian Taxation Office to pay up the outstanding amount. In exchange, authorities did not disclose the figure owed and he will avoid a police or regulatory investigation.

The Australian Taxation Office declined to immediately comment.

Mineral Resources said it retained confidence in Ellison, and would update the market once it had completed internal inquiries.

“Ellison self-reported to the Australian Taxation Office, repaid amounts owed and disclosed these matters to the board,” it said in a statement. “While this does not diminish what happened, Mr. Ellison profoundly regrets his errors of judgment.”

At 2:32 p.m. in Sydney, the stock was trading down 12% to A$40.38, giving the company a market value of about A$8 billion ($5.4 billion).

”While we understand that these concerns raise questions over corporate governance, we think the share price move today is overdone,” Kaan Peker, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note, adding the key detail was that no sales had taken place after the company’s listing.

“The added scrutiny and rigor, the current concerns placed on corporate governance, ultimately, should be positive for the organization.”

Earlier this year, Ellison — a larger-than-life figure even by the standards of Australian business — made headlines after stating he wanted to prevent employees at the company’s office from leaving the building to buy coffee.

(By Paul-Alain Hunt)

The Australian diversified miner’s first-quarter manganese production slumped as the Australia operation recorded nil output.

A tropical cyclone in March damaged infrastructure at the diversified miner’s Groote Eylandt Mining Co (GEMCO) project, part of its Australia Manganese division and forced it to withdraw its annual estimates for the business.

“We progressed a substantial dewatering program and a phased mining restart during the September quarter and remain on track to resume production from the primary concentrator during the December quarter,” South32 said in a statement.

The world’s biggest provider of manganese produced 597,000 wet metric tons (wmt) of the steel additive for the quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with a Visible Alpha consensus estimate of about 527,900 wmt, with the firm’s South Africa Manganese division contributing to the entirety of the production.

South32 added that planned maintenance is scheduled for its South Africa manganese operations in the June 2025 half year.

The company reiterated its production guidance across all operations for fiscal 2025.

(By Shivangi Lahiri and Sherin Sunny; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Aurora Ellis)

While all workers and the main infrastructure at the site are reported safe, there has been an “extensive loss” of piping infrastructure. Orders for replacements have already been placed, the South African miner said in a statement on Friday.

Zinc output this quarter is expected to fall short by nearly 9,700 tonnes due to the stoppage, which will likely last until mid-November, according to the statement. Century produced 76,000 tonnes of zinc last year.

“This incident once again highlights the threat posed by climate change, which is leading to significant damage from extreme weather-related events worldwide,” CEO Neal Froneman said.

“This setback is unfortunate, considering the Century operation had recovered well after heavy rains affected Q1 2024,” he added.

The Century zinc mine began production in 1999. Operations were placed on care and maintenance in 2016 after the depletion of the original open-pit reserves, following 16 years of producing and processing an average of 475,000 tonnes of zinc and 50,000 tonnes of lead concentrate per annum.

The mine is expected to run out of ore in 2027, but its indicated and inferred resources present an opportunity to extend operations beyond 2030, the company has said.

The storms, which lashed the region with wind speeds exceeding 130 km/h and over 130,000 lightning strikes within 24 hours, severely impacted power supplies to the mine.

South Australian Energy Minister, Tom Koutsantonis, spoke to Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), confirming that the Olympic Dam had been significantly affected. 

The authority explained that while BHP has managed to maintain essential power through backup systems, mining operations will remain shut down for about seven days. 

The reason for the halt is primarily due to ventilation concerns within the mine, a critical factor for maintaining air quality and preventing the accumulation of harmful gases that could potentially lead to fires or explosions.

BHP is now assessing the full extent of the damage and evaluating the timeframe needed to resume normal production at the mine, which is Australia’s second-largest copper operation. A spokesperson confirmed to MINING.COM that the mine’s surface operations have been switched to minimal maintenance mode, with on-site backup generators providing necessary power.

This disruption comes as a reminder of a similar event in 2016, when a statewide blackout caused by a storm kept the Olympic Dam idled for two weeks, reducing daily copper output by 567 tonnes. 

The giant mine, located 560 kilometres north of Adelaide, is a critical asset for BHP as it generates significant quantities of copper, uranium and gold.

The mining giant’s copper production from Olympic Dam in the 2024 fiscal year was reported at 322,000 metric tons. BHP aims to ramp up production in South Australia to 500,000 tonnes annually by the early 2030s, with a potential future increase to 650,000 tonnes by the mid-2030s.

The company is contemplating an expansion of the mine’s copper smelter and refinery, with a final investment decision expected in 2027.