The miner and trader’s own sourced copper production fell 4% to 705,200 metric tons, while its own sourced cobalt output fell 18% to 26,500 tons.

Glencore left its overall 2024 outlook for copper, a metal needed for energy transition applications, unchanged at between 950,000 and 1.01 million tons.

Its trading division, whose profit hit a record $6.4 billion in 2022, includes coal, oil, liquefied natural gas and related products, as well as metals.

Glencore expects its full-year marketing earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) in the $3 billion-$3.5 billion range, around the top-end of the firm’s long-term forecast range of $2.2 billion to $3.2 billion.

The miner has kept its coal business after concluding the purchase of Teck Resources’ coking coal assets and securing backing from a majority of its investors who see lucrative earnings from the fossil fuel.

CEO Gary Nagle in August said the company could acquire more steelmaking coal.

It is one of the largest producers and exporters of thermal coal, with an expected output of between 98 million and 106 million tons this year. It produced 73.1 million tons so far, 7% lower than year-ago levels.

Its 2024 steelmaking coal production should increase to 19 million-21 million tons post-acquisition, from 7 million-9 million tons.

(Reporting by Clara Denina; Editing by Jason Neely and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

December futures trading on the CME briefly hit $2801.70 an ounce, topping the all-time high set last week, in overnight trade.

The rally comes despite rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar, which usually would have weighed on the precious metal. This brings bullion’s year-to-date gain to approximately 34%, making it one of the best-performing assets of 2024.

“Market positioning is elevated ahead of the election but also in anticipation of further Fed rate cuts and broader market and geopolitical uncertainty,” Standard Chartered Plc analyst Suki Cooper said in a note quoted by Bloomberg.

“Under a Trump-win scenario, markets are focused on the implications of wider tariffs, as well as inflationary pressures as a result of such tariffs.”

“Gold trades up on the week, despite deflating risk premiums elsewhere, confirming the focus remains the US election and especially the prospect of a Trump 2.0,” Saxo Bank said in a note to Bloomberg.

“It may bring greater policy disruption, trade tariffs and increased geopolitical risks.”

Global gold demand swelled about 5% in the third quarter, setting a record for the period and lifting consumption above $100 billion for the first time, according to the World Gold Council. The increase — which saw volumes climb to 1,313 tons — was underpinned by stronger investment flows from the West, including more high-net-worth individuals. 

Gold’s rally also follows new economic data released Tuesday that showed US job openings fell far more than expected while consumer confidence rose above all estimates. Investors now await more data later this week to further gauge the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates.

Markets are currently pricing in an almost 100% chance for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the US central bank in November.

“Gold should retain its upward bias and may even flirt with $2,800 in the days ahead, as long as US election risks continue weighing on market sentiment, while Fed rate cut expectations remain intact,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group, on Tuesday.

(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)

The increase — which saw volumes climb to 1,313 tons — was underpinned by stronger investment flows from the West, including more high-net-worth individuals, that helped offset waning appetite from Asia, the industry-funded group said in a report on Wednesday. Buying in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds flipped to gains in the quarter after prolonged outflows.

Gold has stormed higher this year, rallying by more than a third and setting successive records. The jump has been driven by robust central-bank buying and increased demand from wealthy investors, with recent gains aided by the Federal Reserve’s shift to cutting interest rates. Purchases in the opaque over-the-counter market were becoming an increasingly important force for prices, according to John Reade, the council’s chief market strategist.

“Demand has switched through the course of this year from predominantly emerging-market OTC buying — high-net-worth individuals — toward very much more Western OTC buying,” Reade said. OTC transactions are done through dealers or between buyers and sellers directly, without an exchange.

Gold — which set an intraday record just above $2,800 an ounce in Wednesday’s trading — has registered gains every month this year, apart from a minor pullback in January, and in June, when prices were flat. “The fact that corrections have been very shallow and short is a keen indication of FOMO buying,” Reade said in an interview, referring to investors’ so-called fear of missing out.

As the rate-cutting cycle gets underway, the WGC expects to see increased allocation to bullion, with geopolitical uncertainty — particularly surrounding next week’s tight US presidential election — adding to reasons why investors are seeking to hold the haven asset.

Investment flows were key to the metal’s 13% gain in the third quarter, with total demand for ETFs, bars and coins reaching the strongest levels since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Central-bank purchases continued — with Poland, Hungary and India among the top buyers — even as the pace of official activity slowed. Jewelry demand fell as record prices hurt consumption.

Looking ahead, fiscal concerns — especially about swelling levels of government debt in the US — may become more pronounced as a driver, according to Reade.

There are concerns, including from the International Monetary Fund, “saying the deficit’s too big and really needs to be sorted out,” Reade said. “That’s the primary attraction from the OTC community to increase their gold holdings.”

Total transaction value as of Sept. 30 was $4.76 billion, down more than 50% compared to the $10.52 billion registered in the full year 2023, according to S&P’s latest report.

Steel producer H2GS AB’s (H2 Green Steel) $4.14 billion funding round in January led all private equity and venture capital deals in the metals and mining sector during that period.

The number of announced deals in the first three quarters totalled 59, on the year on track for the fewest deals in five years.

In the third quarter alone, total deal value plunged 80% year over year to $240 million from $1.22 billion, and the deal count dwindled to 15 from 37.

Antti Gronlund, managing director of UK-based private equity Appian Capital Advisory, said higher acquisition debt financing rates and reduced venture capital deployments have contributed to lower totals.

Transactions in 2023 may have benefited from large deals and non-sector-focused investors attracted by upbeat headlines focused on electric vehicles, which require significant amounts of critical minerals. Those headlines are now more subdued, affecting deal appetite, Gronlund explained.

Private equity investing is challenging because the sector is “working capital intensive,” added Kyle Mumford, partner at KPS Capital Partners LP.

“There are no small capital requests in a metals business. There’s only really big ones,” Mumford continued. “Unlike other businesses, in metals and mining, change in profitability and manufacturing to meet the demand that may be out there takes a long time and is really hard. It can mean a new equipment or a new mill or a new recycling capacity.

“Those are expensive and don’t often meet typical private equity return profiles.”

Still, opportunity exists for further investment in the coming years. Appian’s Gronlund noted that the mining industry is expected to require about $2.1 trillion by 2050 to support global net-zero goals, citing BloombergNEF estimates.

“A significant portion of that will need to come from private capital sources,” he added.

Critical Metals acquired a controlling stake in Tanbreez in June, hailing it as a potential “game-changing” mine project for North America’s rare earths supply chain. By total resource count, it is ranked the largest rare earth deposit in the world at 28.2 million tonnes of total rare earth oxides (TREO) contained within 4.7 billion tonnes of material.

Drilling kicked off last month, consisting of 14 holes with a total cumulative length of up to 2,200 metres. The objective of the drill program was to upgrade the Tanbreez resource to US SEC standards and enhance the potential mine throughput. Critical Metals’ team is currently actively cutting and preparing the drill core for testing.

In Tuesday’s update, the company said that its team examined three areas containing high-grade rare earth material during the past field season. Two of the areas were not initially envisioned for mining, namely Horizon Zero, where limited testing returned about 5% zirconium dioxide (ZrO2), and EALS, located above the unit designated for mining. The third area had high-grade, coarse-grained pegmatites next to the access road of the Tanbreez project’s proposed tailings site.

With the new information, Critical Metals said it will now mine the run-of-the-mill ore at 1.7-1.9% ZrO2, producing a concentrate at 10% ZrO2, 2.5% REO (30% heavy REO), 1.0% Nb2O5, and 0.15% Ta2O5 and HfO2 between late spring to mid-autumn, or approximately eight months of the year. During the winter months, it will enhance the cost-effectiveness of its development strategy by reducing labor and electricity usage while maintaining the same level of rare earth concentrate production.

For this strategy, the company said it has begun discussions with Nukissiorfiit, the Greenland government’s electric company, to secure a reliable and sustainable power source to support the production of up to 3 tonnes of rare earth materials annually.

Shares in Critical Metals gained 3.5% on the NASDAQ by midday trading to $6.45 apiece, with a market capitalization of $526.45 million. The company is a unit of European Lithium (ASX: EUR).

The study, published just a day after the United Nations warned the world is falling “miles short” of what’s needed to curb devastating global warming, indicates that an investment of $78 trillion will be needed to change this course and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations committed to limiting global warming to “well below” two degrees Celsius above the average temperatures recorded between 1850 and 1900, aiming for a target of 1.5 degrees Celsius if feasible. Efforts to date have not succeeded in meeting this challenge, the annual “Energy Transition Outlook” from Wood Mackenzie shows.

Unlike the UN pessimistic outlook, the Scottish consultancy believes that while major obstacles hinder short-term targets, particularly for 2030, a 2050 net-zero goal remains feasible. Immediate and coordinated global action would be necessary, WoodMac warns.

Threats to climate progress

A series of global crises, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, escalating Middle East violence, rising populism in Europe and global trade tensions with China, are undermining the pace of the energy transition, Wood Mackenzie’s vice president head of scenarios and technologies, Prakash Sharma, said. 

He explains that without urgent policy changes and enhanced investment, a warming trajectory of 2.5˚C to 3˚C could become inevitable.

“We are under no illusion as to how challenging the net zero transition will be, given the fact that fossil fuels are widely available, cost-competitive and deeply embedded in today’s complex energy system,” Sharma added. “A price on carbon maybe the most effective way to drive emissions reduction but it’s hard to see it coming together in a polarized environment.”

Key investment are needed across several critical areas, according to WoodMac. As renewable energy sources grow, substantial upgrades to power supply and grid infrastructure are essential to meet the growing demand. Additionally, the need for critical minerals, such as lithium, nickel and cobalt, is projected to increase five- to ten-fold by 2050, as demand for batteries and other technologies essential for the energy transition continues to grow. 

WoodMac sees the need to back the development of emerging technologies, including carbon capture, low-carbon hydrogen, and nuclear power, are vital for facilitating the shift towards cleaner energy sources.

Securing this funding won’t be easy, the consultants noted. “Doubling annual investments to $3.5 trillion by 2050 will be necessary in our net zero scenario,” Sharma said, adding that it will require unprecedented policy coordination globally.

The role of electrification

The electrification of energy systems will play a pivotal role in decarbonization. Transitioning from fossil fuels to electric power, Wood Mackenzie forecasts that electricity’s share of global energy demand will increase from 23% to 35% by 2050 in a base case, and could reach as high as 55% in a net-zero scenario.

Wood Mackenzie’s analysis reveals that global energy demand is set to rise by 14% by 2050. Emerging economies are projected to see even steeper growth at 45%, driven by rising populations and economic advancement. 

In parallel, data centres, electric vehicles, and AI are emerging as new drivers of electricity consumption, with AI-related energy use alone expected to increase from 500 TWh in 2023 to up to 4,500 TWh by 2050.

Including renewable energy source to meet electrifications demand could help reduce emissions, the report says.

According to Wood Mackenzie, solar and wind currently account for 17% of the global power supply, and renewables capacity is expected to double by 2030 in its base case. Yet, this increase still falls short of the COP28 commitment made in 2023 to triple renewables by 2030.

Transition or coexistence?

While nuclear energy holds promise for providing consistent, zero-carbon electricity, its high cost and frequent project delays pose significant challenges. WoodMac says that nuclear power could play a more significant role as it has attracted interest, particularly from tech companies looking to power data centres sustainably.

While fossil fuels is expected to plateau in the 2040s before beginning a gradual decline, Wood Mackenzie predicts that the high capital costs of low-carbon technologies coupled with strong demand for energy, will require the continued use of oil and gas in the near term.

Wood Mackenzie says to meet climate targets there will be necessary that nations gathered at the COP29 meeting in Azerbaijan next month finalize Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. This section focuses on carbon markets and aims to establish a new climate finance goal to replace the previous annual target of $100 billion, which experts consider insufficient.

The consultancy’s report echoes concerns included in a UN Environment Programme (UNEP) study released last week. The document says the next decade is crucial in the battle against climate change, adding that failing to act now will jeopardize any chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. According to the UN body, the current rate of climate action could lead to a catastrophic increase of 3.1 degrees Celsius this century. 

“Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned.

Even if all existing commitments to reduce emissions are fulfilled, global temperatures would still rise by 2.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, experts agree.

Portuguese energy company Galp is in no rush to make a final investment decision (FID) to build a battery-grade lithium refinery in Portugal amid challenging market conditions, CEO Filipe Silva said on Monday.

A 50-50 joint venture between Galp – which earlier on Monday reported a 22% decline in third-quarter adjusted core profit – and Swedish battery maker Northvolt, dubbed Aurora and set up in November 2021, was previously expected to announce the FID by the end of 2024.

However, the refinery, which was scheduled to start commercial operations in early 2026, is facing delays due to the complexity of the project and uncertainty about grant funding, while lithium prices have been low due to oversupply from China.

“The market is very challenging as we speak. So, we are in no rush to take an FID until we see an appropriate return for the project. We don’t seem to be there,” Silva told an analysts call.

He said Galp is “also concerned that this project could become orphaned in case there is no mining of lithium in Portugal”.

With some 60,000 tonnes of known reserves, Portugal is already Europe’s biggest producer of lithium, traditionally mined for ceramics.

Portugal’s center-right government, which took over in April, is finalizing a strategic plan to explore for raw materials critical to the green transition, where copper could take on a more important role than lithium.

Portugal’s previous government planned to auction licenses for lithium prospecting in six areas in the north and center of the country, but concerns about the environmental and social impact have led to multiple delays to the auction, initially planned for 2018.

The refinery, with estimated investments of more than 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion), aims to have an initial annual production capacity of up to 35,000 metric tons of lithium hydroxide, a key material for lithium-ion batteries.

(By Sergio Goncalves; Editing by David Holmes)

Using data from 2022, the study estimates that the US generated 13,767 kg of gold that year worth around £882.8 million from its e-waste. The gold was recycled from a world-leading 4.1 billion kg of wastes, owing to the nation’s consumerist culture.

In second place is China, which recycled fewer than half of the gold than its main rival at 6,630 kg worth £425.1 million. In 2022, the world’s top consumer recycled 1.9 billion kg of documented e-waste, contributed by its role as a global e-waste hub since the 1970s.

Germany ranks third in estimated gold value from recycled e-waste, with 3,249 kg of gold worth approximately £208.4 million. The country processed 956.6 million kg of waste in 2022, a result of strict EU policies that require responsible collection and recycling.

Rounding out the top five are two other G7 nations — France and Japan — with 2,924 kg (£187.5 million) and 2,084 kg (£133.6 million) respectively.

The country that recycled the least amount of gold in 2022 was Azerbaijan, with just 10,000 kg. This could be for a range of reasons, such as a limited e-waste management infrastructure or the lack of regulations, the study says.

On a per-capita basis, Norway led the way with 19.42 kg of documented and recycled waste from electronic goods in 2022, which could generate an estimated 0.066 gram of gold worth £4.23.

For the full list of the world’s top gold recyclers from e-waste, click here.

This state-of-the-art refinery will be associated with the new e-waste recycling plant that Hindalco is building in Pakhajan, Gujarat, for which Metso has already been awarded a contract for three Kaldo furnaces, an anode furnace and an anode casting shop, gas cleaning and supporting equipment. 

For the precious metals refinery, the Metso scope of delivery consists of a Kaldo furnace with off-gas handling and silver refining equipment. The Finnish firm will also deliver basic engineering for the precious metals refinery. The order value was not disclosed.

In a press release on Monday, Hindalco stated that commissioning of the plant is expected to take place within two years.

“We are excited to have been trusted with yet another important order from Hindalco Industries. The new plant will allow Hindalco Industries to increase their production of precious metals,” Lauri Närhi, director of sales, smelting, at Metso.

“Our precious metals refining technology ensures high recovery, low operating costs and high-quality products, all achieved within a short processing time. The process is highly automated, offering a safe working environment and zero toxic gas emissions.”

The total stock market valuation of the world’s biggest mining companies is up a fairly modest 8% year to end-September and despite the good run is still $240 billion below the peak hit in the second quarter of 2022. And judging by the performance of the top tier in the final quarter (BHP down 8% QTD, Rio Tinto –5%, Vale –3%, Glencore –5%, Newmont –9%, Zijin –5%, Freeport –7%) the gap won’t be closing anytime soon.

In contrast, Nvidia — the maker of chips highly prized for artificial intelligence (AI) computing — is up nearly 200% so far this year (and 2,600% over five). When comparing the graphics card maker’s stock valuation to the mining industry’s collective worth, it’s difficult not to wonder if something is not awry with how global investors appraise the industrial economy.  

Should Nvidia (or Microsoft or Apple for that matter) be worth more than twice the top 50 miners? Outside the top 50 the average market cap quickly shrinks to the low teens so Nvidia is in fact worth more than the entire listed mining industry. 

Even when extending the top 50 into metals and energy –  steel, aluminium and electricity companies often operate their own mines – Nvidia can still throw shade. BHP does not even crack the top 100 most valuable companies in the world and is worth less than Booking.com, and Temu and Zara’s owners, none of which can exactly be called the building blocks of the global economy. 

Nvidia briefly surpassed Apple on Friday to become the world’s most valuable company. Its market capitalization is approximately $3.5 trillion, just below Apple’s, which remains the highest-valued firm globally.

The company said on Monday that its full-year nickel production forecast was now at 196,000-204,000 metric tons, up from 184,000-194,000 tons previously. The new target was still below the 209,000 tons produced in 2023.

The company said it had produced 146,210 tons of nickel in the first nine months of the year as the furnace at its flagship Nadezhda smelter went back into operation after major repairs in August.

As a result, the company reported a 16% quarter-on-quarter increase in nickel output in the third quarter.

Its palladium production guidance was increased to between 2.624 million and 2.728 million ounces, up from 2.296 million to 2.451 million ounces previously. Palladium output was up 1% year on year at 2.156 million ounces in the nine months of 2024.

Nornickel’s operations director Alexander Popov said the company increased nine-month copper and palladium output year on year while platinum and nickel were unchanged.

The “positive dynamics” were attributed to improved operational efficiency and increase mined ore, he said in a statement.

Nornickel is not subject to direct Western sanctions, though sanctions against Moscow have prompted some Western producers to avoid buying Russian metal and complicated payments, leading Nornickel to redirect sales to Asia.

(By Anastasia Lyrchikova and Gleb Bryanski; Editing by David Goodman)

Tykac’s Sev.en Group has taken advantage of cheap valuations to buy up coal power stations and mines in the US, Australia and Vietnam, as well as gas-fired plants in the UK. After building his fortune in the Czech Republic, Tykac is using the expansion to shield his wealth from European Union efforts to lead the world in giving up fossil fuels.

It’s also a bet that delays and snags in the transition to renewable energy will keep coal in the mix for years to come, at least outside Europe.

Having amassed foreign assets worth an estimated €3 billion ($3.3 billion) in the past five years, Sev.en is preparing for more and bigger deals, according to Alan Svoboda, chief executive officer of the group’s international business.

“We have much more in the pipeline than in the past, and we’re hoping to grow even faster than we have so far,” he said in an interview at the Prague headquarters of Sev.en Global Investments AS. “We look at hundreds of opportunities every year and submit dozens of binding bids.”

The Vales Point power station outside Sydney is one such example. The Czech company bought the coal-fired facility, which has a license to operate until 2029, two years ago. Yet looming electricity shortages might prompt Australian authorities to extend its lifespan until 2033, according to Svoboda. If that were to happen, it could boost profits, even if it requires additional investment.

“The entire energy sector can’t change overnight, as some people hoped,” the CEO said. “The Australians have realized that it is not totally safe to force a speedy decommissioning of coal plants, and that it is better to let market forces determine when their operation will no longer make business sense.”

As institutional shareholders, lenders and insurers flee environmentally harmful industries in droves, it remains unclear whether the company’s push into coal will pay off. Revenue at Sev.en Global Investments, which now accounts for over 70% of Tykac’s empire, jumped 23% last year to €1.85 billion. Still, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization fell 53% to €432 million as energy prices slid from the record levels notched in 2022.

Including his original Czech company, Sev.en Ceska Energie AS, Tykac now has about 6,000 employees worldwide and a net worth of around $3 billion, according to estimates from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Tykac, who declined to personally comment for this article, started out in business after the Velvet Revolution in 1989, when then-Czechoslovakia ditched communism. His first company was a computer manufacturer, and he later began investing in other local businesses and banks.

After 2006, Tykac transitioned into coal mines and power and heating plants around the Czech Republic. His Pocerady station, near the country’s northern border with Germany, is one of the country’s biggest polluters and has been a frequent target of environmental activists since it went online in the 1970s. It accounts for almost 6% of the country’s entire electricity production.

Unlike many peers, Tykac is not trying to greenwash his image. Sev.en Global Investment’s website describes its business model as focused on risky, high-return projects. It quotes Tykac as saying that his investments are “crucial for our economies” even as others might avoid them for ethical reasons.

“Sufficiency of reliable, safe and affordable electricity,” it reads, “is one of the basic conditions for the existence of today’s civilization.”

Svoboda joined Sev.en in 2018 to take care of its overseas expansion. The 52-year-old former executive at Czech utility CEZ AS says the EU effort to phase out coal is posing “elevated regulatory risk” to companies such as Sev.en.

“We are largely losing interest in Europe, except for the UK,” Svoboda said. “We are drawn to America and Australia.”

While the focus remains on developed nations with stable political systems, Tykac’s empire is also expanding into communist-ruled Vietnam, where it has agreed to buy 70% of a coal plant from American and Chinese investors. The 1.2 gigawatt facility outside Hanoi comes with a supply contract that hedges the owner against swings in exchange rates and coal prices until 2055.

Sev.en is hoping that the investment could be followed by expansion into places like India, Indonesia and Malaysia, according to Svoboda. Many countries in the region aren’t planning to ditch coal anytime soon, and their governments are often willing to compensate foreign owners with long-term guarantees.

“We thought it was time to try something new,” said Svoboda. “We would like to replicate our investment in Vietnam in other places across South-East Asia.”

It does remain easier to secure funding for green projects, which is one reason why the group is also seeking to diversify into industries such as electricity storage and mining minerals, including those used in batteries. In Australia, it is about to start producing potassium-sulfate fertilizer made via an environmentally friendly process.

Over the past 18 months, Sev.en has opened offices in New York, London and Sydney in an effort to expand its global footprint. “We’ve been looking at bigger and bigger transactions,” said Svoboda, adding that the “sweet spot” for acquisitions is currently between €500 million and €1 billion.

Despite the rising appetite, Sev.en remains selective, according to Svoboda.

“Rather than having a broad portfolio of many smaller items,” he said, “our goal is to own a limited number of crown jewels that we go all-in on.”

(By Krystof Chamonikolas)

The permit allows the company to begin the disposing of tailings – discarded mined material – by December 2024. It comes after a July court decision that restricted Adriatic’s use of state forest land for storing mining waste. 

The company chose an alternative site at the former Veovaca open-pit mine, about two kilometres from the Vares processing plant, where Adriatic has full ownership rights.

The approved facility will employ a “dry stack” method, which stores solid tailings without requiring a liquid reservoir, and is regarded as a safer and more stable approach compared to conventional tailings ponds.

The Veovaca tailings storage facility (TSF) will be built in two phases, with the first designed to handle four to five years of production waste. This initial stage is projected to cost $5 million and is expected to be completed by the end of 2024.

Adriatic’s current tailing storage facility has a maximum capacity of around 133,000t, which is projected to allow tailings deposition until the first one to two months of 2025. Adriatic plans to complete the initial construction phase of the Veovaca TSF before that to ensure no impact on production or the current ramp up to commercial production due to tailings storage capacity, the company said.

Vares began production early this year, becoming Europe’s first new mine in over a decade. The newly named chief executive officer, Laura Tyler, said in early October the operation was in the final phase of reaching nameplate processing capacity of 800,000 tonnes.

In 2023, Adriatic contributed nearly 22% of foreign direct investment into Bosnia and 2% of its GDP. The miner deployed 69% of total capital domestically, the equivalent of $155 million, across 739 companies.

Shares in Adriatic Metals climbed on the news in both Sydney and London. In Australia, they closed up more than 4% to A$4.30 each. In the UK, the stock was up 3.7% at 221p by 2pm local time Friday, leaving the miner with a market capitalization of £720 million ($935m).

Importers of lithium, graphite and cobalt for use in manufacturing in the UK will be granted access to UK Export Finance, a state body that usually helps British exporters and their buyers with financing and insurance, people familiar with the matter said. They will only be eligible for the support if they hold long-term contracts with UK exporters, a move that will benefit the defense, aerospace, electric vehicle and renewable energy industries, they said, asking not to be named discussing measures to be announced in the Oct. 30 budget.

Western countries in recent years have been stepping up efforts to secure supplies of critical minerals that are crucial to advanced manufacturing but are currently dominated by China. Reeves’s initiative next week will make it easier for UKEF to secure finance contracts for suppliers in Commonwealth countries who have large mineral deposits, such as Australia, the people said. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is holding a series of bilateral meetings on trade and economic growth at the Commonwealth heads of government meeting in Samoa this week.

Reeves is preparing to unveil a package of tax rises and further borrowing in Labour’s first budget in 14 years. She’s seeking to raise some £40 billion ($52 billion) to help fund party priorities like the National Health Service and to plug a fiscal void that she blames on her Conservative predecessors. Reeves has also been debating changing the measure of debt used to inform the country’s fiscal rules, freeing up as much as an extra £50 billion of government spending on infrastructure.

While the government didn’t specify which companies it expects the move on export finance to benefit, manufacturers such as jet engine maker Rolls Royce Holdings Plc are significant users of imported metals, and Indian firm Tata Motors Ltd. is building a battery plant in southwest England that will require lithium supplies.

Labour is also relying on attracting on an influx of private investment into the UK to get the economy firing and spur the growth needed to generate more tax income. The government said it drummed up £63 billion at its international investment summit earlier this month, though some of that had previously been committed.

On Friday in Samoa, Starmer unveiled an additional £1 billion investment in the UK property market by Aware Super, an Australian fund and Delancey Real Estate. AustralianSuper, the country’s biggest pension fund, is also preparing to bolster its international investment team in London, expecting to manage £250 billion from its London office by 2035, the UK government said in a statement.

Starmer hosted a business meeting with AustralianSuper chief executive Paul Schroder, Bank of America chair Brian Moynihan and Lloyd’s of London CEO John Neal in Samoa on Thursday.

(By Ellen Milligan)

US imports of copper have surged after traders capitalized on a rare arbitrage window that opened between the CME and the London Metal Exchange (LME) contracts at the height of the squeeze on CME short position holders.

The result has been a redistribution of global exchange inventory with CME stocks rebuilding from depleted levels and both LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) inventory falling.

It remains to be seen how long this global readjustment lasts but resilient demand and domestic production constraints have the potential to suck more metal into the United States.

Chilean exports redirected

The United States imported an average of 57,700 metric tons per month of refined copper in the first half of 2024.

Inbound shipments then jumped to 106,400 tons and 117,500 tons in July and August respectively, according to LSEG Group trade data.

The main source of the extra metal was Chile. US imports from the South American country accelerated from an average 39,600 tons per month in January-June to 78,200 tons in July and 89,800 tons in August.

Indeed, the United States became the major destination for Chilean copper in the May-August period as shipments to China dropped to an average 30,300 tons.

Shorts covered?

A significant portion of Chile’s shipments to the United States has been delivered against short positions on the CME.

The CME’s limited range of good-delivery brands was one of the reasons the May squeeze became so acute.

Chilean metal accounts for 18 of a total 57 deliverable copper brands on the US exchange, exceeding the 13 domestically-produced brands.

A total 76,440 tons of copper have entered CME warehouses in New Orleans since the start of August, helping lift registered inventory to 74,824 tons from a July low of 8,117 tons.

The liquidity boost has calmed CME time-spreads after the extreme backwardations seen in the second quarter.

It’s noticeable that while CME stocks have been rising, those registered with both the LME and the ShFE have fallen.

However, global exchange inventory is broadly unchanged at an elevated 521,600 tons, up 308,000 tons on the start of the year.

More to come?

CME copper stocks are by no means one-way traffic, with the daily inflows being offset by a steady stream of metal moving in the opposite direction.

This speaks to resilient demand in the United States even before the Federal Reserve’s bumper rate cut trickles down to the manufacturing sector.

Moreover, domestic production is going to take a significant knock due to geotechnical problems at one of country’s largest mines.

Production at the Bingham Canyon mine dropped 44% year-on-year in the third quarter due to movement in the walls of what is the world’s deepest open-pit copper mine.

Rio Tinto, which owns the mine, warned that mined production would be impacted to the tune of 50,000 tons this year as feed to the concentrator is supplemented with lower-grade ore. Mined output will also be affected both next year and in 2026, albeit to an as-yet unknown extent, it said.

It may not just be CME copper shorts that need more US imports in the months ahead.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Mark Potter)

BHP walked away from a $49 billion bid to acquire Anglo in May after it was rebuffed three times. With a six-month block on another approach set to expire at the end of November, a deal is again under scrutiny.

Anglo was able to convince investors during BHP’s approach that it had a better plan to grow value, focused on shedding underperforming platinum, diamonds and coal to focus on copper, a metal key for the energy transition.

If that succeeds, the higher value that comes with copper assets may help keep Anglo safe, one portfolio manager at a Cape Town fund manager said.

But the longer it takes to achieve a transformation, the more likely it is that investors will be tempted by another bid.

Investors with shares in both companies told Reuters that even though they expect BHP CEO Mike Henry to renew his pursuit for the London-listed miner, the timing and even the rationale for such an approach could be shaped by whether Anglo can grow beyond the grasp of cash-rich rivals.

Anglo CEO Duncan Wanblad is rushing to sell coking coal mines in Australia and nickel assets in Brazil while spinning off platinum mines in South Africa. The company is also weighing whether to sell or separately list its De Beers diamonds unit.

Anglo’s world-class copper assets in Latin America are the prize for rivals seeking increased exposure to copper.

But its copper mines are still dogged by operational issues. On Thursday, it said copper output declined 13% in the third quarter, though the company remains on course to meet this year’s output guidance of 730,000 tons to 790,000 tons.

Anglo declined to comment. BHP did not respond to emailed requests for comment.

Choosing the moment

Anglo’s shares rose as much as 4.3% in London on Monday amid a broad uptick in mining stocks, but have shed most of the premium they added in the wake of BHP’s approach.

If Anglo’s valuation takes time to catch up with its restructuring, it could present a golden opportunity for BHP.

According to a source at a top investor in both companies, a restructured Anglo creates more value for BHP, which is still wary of the risks associated with absorbing South African assets.

“If I was BHP, I would say let Anglo do most of the heavy lifting, the restructuring it promised it will do by end 2025,” the source told Reuters.

Any potential new bid should come when some of the restructuring is expected to completed by June or July next year, they added.

BHP may have to wait until Anglo spins off its platinum business by mid-2025 to make the deal less complex, UBS Group analysts said. “We expect Anglo to re-rate as the group simplifies,” UBS said. “If not, we see potential for another takeover approach.”

Christiaan Bothma, an investment analyst at Johannesburg-based money manager Sanlam Private Wealth, which has shares in both companies, told Reuters it would “make sense” for BHP to wait for Anglo to do the asset separation for them.

But he added: “The counter argument to this would be if they wait (too) long, Anglo’s valuation premium may be too high or iron ore prices too low (BHP’s primary currency).”

(By Felix Njini; Editing by Veronica Brown, Pratima Desai and Jan Harvey)

In combined battery capacity deployed – a better indicator of battery materials demand than unit sales alone – the global electric car market expanded by 22% so far this year. 

In total, 505.6 GWh of fresh battery power hit the globe’s roads from January through August, according to data from Toronto-based EV supply chain research firm Adamas Intelligence.

The robust growth rate also comes despite a noticeable swing towards hybrid vehicles, which have inherently smaller batteries and therefore contained metal. 

The combined battery capacity of plug-in hybrid vehicles steered onto roads globally for the first time this year is up 70% versus a must more sedate pace for full electric passenger vehicles of 15%. At the same time the average battery capacity of plug-ins is also rising, up 14% this year to 23kWh, more than a third of the average full electric vehicle.

For miners supplying the EV battery industry, the news remain negative: when pairing metals demand with prices in the supply chain, declines this year are brutal. 

The latest data based on EV registrations in over 110 countries show the sales weighted average monthly dollar value of the lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite contained in the batteries​​ of the average EV based on global end-user registrations, battery capacity and chemistries.

Put it all together and the raw materials bill for the average EV is now down to $537 compared to $1,342 in August 2023 and a monthly peak of more than $1,900 at the beginning of last year, according to Adamas Intelligence analysis.      

The downtrend is led by lithium where the sales weighted average value per EV is down 75% over the past year to $236 and cobalt, which at little over $46 is 42% below the value reached in August 2023. Manganese is the only battery raw material in positive territory this year, up 3% but the raw material is also down 8% compare to the same month last year. For anode material, graphite loadings and values have held mostly steady at just under $26 per average EV.

The value of nickel in the average EV battery is down 26% as LFP battery chemistries continue to take global markets. LFP batteries represented 42% of the global total in terms of capacity deployed in GWh in August.

That compares to a 32% share during the same month last year, more than offsetting the long-running trend towards high-nickel cathodes, and the growing popularity of NCM batteries for larger plug-in and range-extending hybrids, where the energy density of nickel-based cathodes makes more sense given the weight of these vehicles. 

For a fuller analysis of the battery metals market check out the latest Northern Miner print and digital editions. 

* Frik Els is Editor at Large for MINING.COM and Head of Adamas Inside, providing news and analysis based on Adamas Intelligence data.

The Biden administration floated the potential restrictions at a meeting of G-7 finance officials in Washington this week as it mulls fresh ways to squeeze President Vladimir Putin’s war efforts. Russia’s MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC is the biggest producer of palladium, which is mainly used in catalytic converters for automobiles. Norilsk Nickel’s press service declined to comment.

While Norilsk Nickel accounts for around 40% of global output, the company now sells most of its output to China, according to a person familiar with situation. It still sells some to the US, as no import ban for the metal is currently in place, the person said.

Still, sanctions risks “have reignited buying activity,” said Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities. Commodity trading advisor trend followers are adding to their palladium bullish positions, he said. “Fear is the trade.”

Shares of the four biggest palladium producers in South Africa — the world’s second-largest source of the metal — all jumped by more than 10%. One of them, Sibanye Stillwater Ltd., recently announced cuts to palladium output at its US mines due to weak prices.

Palladium has fallen about 37% since the start of last year and almost two-thirds from a March 2022 peak, which miners attribute to a subdued global economy and destocking by manufacturers.

The possibility of removing Russian palladium from the market may tighten the market as “South Africa and the other major producers won’t be able to fill the gap,” said Dan Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading.

Gold pared gains after latest data pointed to economic resilience in the US, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve may take a measured approach to monetary easing. Rising yields and higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on gold, as the metal doesn’t pay interest.

Palladium rose 5.1% at $1,119.88 an ounce as of 10:38 a.m. in New York. Gold gained 0.3% at $2,723.98 after earlier rising by as much as 1%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0.1%. Silver slid while platinum advanced.

(By William Clowes and Yvonne Yue Li)

Three-month futures jumped as much as 4.5% to $3,284 a ton on the London Metal Exchange. Teck said refined zinc production this year may be as much as 12% lower than previously expected due to a localized fire at its Trail smelter in September.

The 40,000-ton cut to its guidance is small in the context of the 14 million-ton global market but comes during a time of heightened concerns.

Zinc futures traded 1.54 higher at $3,188 a ton at 10:24 a.m. local time on the LME. Prices pared earlier gains after readily available zinc inventories tracked by the LME rose 4.8%, the most in a month.

Zinc has rallied by a fifth this year following several disruptions to mine output, making it the No. 2 performer among the exchange’s six main metals. Reflecting the supply tightness, cash contracts have swung sharply during the past week to a significant premium over three-month futures.

That structure — known as backwardation — implies spot demand is running ahead of supply. The spread between the two contracts reached $60.50 a ton Thursday, the highest in more than two years.

LME data also shows individual entities recently buying large volumes of inventory and zinc futures expiring next month.

Despite tepid Chinese consumption and a still-uncertain global economy, supply bottlenecks have emerged this year to rattle several metals. Copper smelters are struggling because there isn’t enough ore to go around, and aluminum has gained as prices for its key input material, alumina, shoot higher.

Among other metals, aluminum rose as much as 1.7% to $2,715 a ton, the highest intraday price since May, and copper gained 0.8%.

Read More: Zinc market tightens as mine supply disruptions rattle buyers

Anglo said its copper output fell 13% in the July to September quarter, while rough diamond production decreased by 25% on cuts due to prolonged lower demand.

Its De Beers diamonds unit is exploring options for further output cuts in future, Anglo said.

For the first nine months of 2024, copper output fell 4% to 575,000 tons and diamond production was down 21% at 18.9 million carats.

Anglo still expects to produce 730,000-790,000 tons of copper and 23-26 million carats of rough diamonds this year, even as it assesses additional production cuts going forward.

Its shares, which have risen around 18% this year, opened up 2.2%.

The mining giant is restructuring its business to mainly focus on energy transition metal copper after fending off a $49 billion takeover offer from bigger rival BHP Group in May.

Copper will make up 60% of Anglo’s business after it sells its Australian steelmaking coal assets and nickel mines in Brazil, as well as divesting De Beers and its platinum business Amplats in South Africa.

Apart from its copper assets in Chile, Anglo will also retain iron ore mines in South Africa and Brazil, as well as the Woodsmith fertilizer project in the United Kingdom, which it has now slowed down.

Anglo said steelmaking coal’s production fell by 6% in the third quarter after shutting its Grosvenor mine in Queensland due to an underground fire.

The London-listed miner, the world’s third-largest exporter of metallurgical coal, lowered its yearly production guidance to 14-15.5 million tons from a previous forecast of 15-17 million.

Anglo said the final round of bidders for the coal assets was in place and it expected to announce the sale agreement within months.

(By Clara Denina and Felix Njini; Editing by Stephen Coates and Mark Potter)

Eramet used available liquidity for the $699 million purchase of Tsingshan’s 49.9% stake, it said.

The Centenario project, due to start production in the coming weeks, was attractive despite a drop in lithium prices and full ownership would let Eramet decide how to pursue a planned second production facility, Chair and CEO Christel Bories told reporters on a call.

Eramet shares rose 6% in early trade, recovering some of their steep losses since last week when the group’s production target cuts pushed the shares to three-year lows.

Metals group Tsingshan built the initial processing plant at Eramet’s lithium mine, with a target to reach annual capacity of 24,000 metric tons by mid-2025.

Tsingshan remains Eramet’s partner in Indonesia where they operate a nickel mine.

In a separate third-quarter sales statement, Eramet also announced the suspension of a project to develop recycling of electric vehicle batteries in France, citing slow development of the market in Europe.

The group cut its capital investment target for this year, with cost control measures including the suspension of its mine production in Gabon announced last week in response to a downturn in the manganese market.

The reduced spending partly reflected a delay at the second plant in Argentina, with a decision expected next year and construction potentially starting in 2026, chief financial officer Nicolas Carre told an analyst call. Construction had been expected to begin next year.

Bories said the manganese market, hit by an influx of low-grade ore from South African and reduced demand from Chinese steel makers, was expected to return to normal conditions during the fourth quarter.

The group did not update its projection for full-year adjusted earnings before interest, tax, debt and amortization (EBITDA), with Carre telling reporters metal price forecasts have been too volatile.

Eramet reiterated its expectation for higher EBITDA in the second half compared with the first half, with Carre adding it expected to achieve full-year net profit.

(By Gus Trompiz and Benoit Van Overstraeten; Editing by Mark Potter and Barbara Lewis)

Other notable names include Anglo American (LON: AAL), Newmont (TSX: NGT, NYSE: NEM), Vale (NYSE: VALE), Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX, NYSE: AEM), Glencore (LON: GLEN), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) and Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, TECK.B, NYSE: TECK).

To make the list, Forbes teamed up with market research firm Statista and surveyed more than 300,000 employees in over 50 countries who work for multinational corporate groups that meet the following criteria: employ more than 1,000 workers and operate in at least two of the six continental regions (Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, North America and Oceania).

Respondents were asked whether they would recommend their company to family or friends, and to rate it based on such criteria as salary, talent development and remote work options. They could also rate companies they knew through their own industry knowledge and through friends and family who worked there.

Survey responses were then analyzed and tallied — along with data from the previous three years — with a heavier weight placed on the more recent data and evaluations from current employees.

While the number of honorees per country varied based on the population and qualifying companies in each area, a total of 850 companies spanning 48 countries earned a ranking on Forbes’ final list.

BHP topped all mining companies under the raw materials category, with a ranking of 90. After that, Anglo American was the highest ranked company at No. 251, followed by Newmont at No. 474, Vale at No. 502, Agnico at No. 649, Glencore at No. 675, AngloGold at No. 789, Teck at No. 797 and Poland’s KGHM at No. 823.

Potash production is expected to reach 73 million metric tons this year, with Russian exports at 12-13 million tons and those from Belarus at around 10 million tons, Julia Campbell, head of the potash pricing service at commodity price agency Argus, said.

Potash prices have started to normalize following a period of volatility following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Russian exports dropped sharply after the war in Ukraine began due to financial and logistical challenges. But these problems have since eased,” Campbell said.

Increased exports from Canada, Jordan and Laos have also boosted global supply and brought down prices, adding to the fears of possible oversupply, with a slight improvement in demand expected only in 2025.

During their half-year earnings reporting, major potash producers such as Germany’s K+S sounded optimistic about growing demand and stabilizing prices.

However, analysts have since warned the abundant global supply would put a cap on pricing, dampening the companies’ earnings prospects.

“I don’t think there’s likely to be any sort of premium pricing or any real pricing benefit as a result of the global supply shift and the global trade shift. We saw that mostly in 2022 and into 2023 when prices were still moderating,” Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein told Reuters.

As such, Canada’s share of global potash trade increased significantly in 2022, while those of Belarus and Russia declined. Prices have since dropped below $300 a ton from a mid-2022 peak of $1,000, on weak demand, data from Argus showed.

“We are likely nearing the operational cost of production, which may force some companies to curb production,” Rabobank analyst Paul Joules said.

Canada’s Nutrien, the world’s top producer of the mineral mainly used in fertilizers, suspended its ramp-up plans for potash production in August, citing market conditions.

Rising shipments, growing concerns

Russian producers have increased shipments to China and India via new rail routes since Russia exited the Black Sea grain deal last year. This has boosted demand in Southeast Asia and South America, Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein said.

Belarusian exporters have shifted cargo from Baltic ports to Russian ones and are offering potash at a discount via these new routes bypassing sanctions, he added.

Meanwhile, Swiss-based Eurochem is expanding facilities at its Usolskiy and Volgakaliy sites in Russia.

“The MOP (muriate of potash, or potassium chloride) sector specifically, is already experiencing a period of very heavy supply,” said Humphrey Knight, an analyst at CRU London.

Farming the price drop

The fall in potash prices has improved affordability of some grains and oilseeds, fertilizer consultant Delphine Leconte-Demarsy from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization said.

“In the US, potash remains more expensive than it was before the price hike, but this is compensated by comparatively higher crop prices,” Leconte-Demarsy said.

But she added local farmers were affected differently depending on logistical costs and exchange rates.

“In China, while potash is currently more affordable than before the price hike for wheat and maize, depressed rice markets curb potash use for this crop,” she said.

In Brazil, a major exporter of agricultural products, potash prices are back to 2019 levels, boosting its use for more highly priced crops such as soybeans and maize.

Farmers will continue to reap the benefits as the tight market is expected to keep potash prices below historical averages, Rabobank’s Joules said.

($1 = 0.9215 euros)

(By Tristan Veyet, Jesus Calero and Luca Fratangelo; Editing by Milla Nissi, Matt Scuffham and David Evans)

Cash zinc contracts are trading at a $24.09 premium to three-month futures, in a pricing structure known as backwardation that’s a hallmark sign that spot demand is exceeding supply. The spread was trading at a discount as recently as last week, and is now at the highest level since 2023.

The zinc market has been rattled by a series of mine setbacks this year, dramatically tightening supplies of raw zinc ores known as concentrates. Demand for the metal has suffered during an industrial downturn in China and Europe, but the supply ructions have been large enough to underpin an 17% gain in zinc prices on the LME this year.

The key question among analysts and traders is whether zinc smelters — squeezed by rising raw material costs and weak end-use demand — will be forced to cut production. That could constrict spot metal supplies and fuel further price gains. The backwardation signals that buyers in the LME market are increasingly alert to that possibility.

Within the past week, one individual buyer has acquired between 50% and 80% of the readily available zinc inventories in the LME’s warehousing network, according to data from the exchange. And in the futures market, one entity has also bought up at least 40% of the main November-delivery zinc contracts, which would entitle them to scoop up more inventory than there is available in the system, if held to expiry.

“Has this tightness been accentuated by changes in trader positioning? Maybe, but there’s a fundamental basis for it because we’re simply not mining enough zinc,” Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, said by phone from London. “I can see why it’s happening, because on the raw-material side it’s the tightest of all the base metals.”

Backwardations can emerge quickly in individual price spreads as large buyers emerge on the LME, and they can dissipate just as rapidly if and when those inventories and futures positions are sold back into the market. But the tightness isn’t limited to near-dated months, with a steep backwardation emerging all the way out to 2027 in recent trading sessions — suggesting that investors, traders and consumers could be bracing for a longer-term squeeze on supply.

Global mine production fell by 4.2% in the first eight months of the year, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed on Wednesday. Meanwhile, refined zinc output has fallen 1%, but BMO’s Hamilton said it’s likely that more meaningful smelter cutbacks will be seen moving into next year.

Bullish investors have been betting on a slower-than-expected recovery in mined supplies following a series of cuts to production guidance, including a downward revision by Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. earlier this month, according to Zeng Tong, an analyst at Jinrui Futures Co.

The latest knock to mine supply came on Friday, as Sibanye Stillwater Ltd. said that it expects operations at its Century zinc mine in Australia to be suspended until mid-November after a bushfire damaged some equipment.

Investors might be rushing to build long positions following the Century news, said Han Zhen, an analyst at researcher Shanghai Metals Market. There is also talk about possible production cuts at European smelters due to higher electricity costs over winter, she said.

Zinc was down 0.4% at $3,126 a ton on the LME as of 1:32 p.m. in London, after climbing 2% on Tuesday. Other metals were mixed, with copper down 1.2% to $9,470 a ton, while aluminum rose 0,3%.

Column: Zinc facing supply deficit as mine output falls again

More than 600,000 Brazilians, 46 local governments and around 2,000 businesses are suing BHP over the 2015 collapse of the Mariana dam in southeastern Brazil, which was owned and operated by BHP and Vale’s Samarco joint venture.

The dam’s collapse unleashed a wave of toxic sludge that killed 19 people, left thousands homeless, flooded forests and polluted the length of the Doce River.

The claimants’ lawyers accused BHP of “cynically and doggedly” trying to avoid responsibility as the trial of a lawsuit worth up to 36 billion pounds ($47 billion), one of the largest in English legal history, began on Monday.

They also allege BHP contributed to the collapse of the dam by allowing it to be raised as part of an expansion project, despite an increasing risk of failure.

BHP, the world’s biggest miner by market value, is contesting liability and says the London lawsuit duplicates legal proceedings and reparation and repair programs in Brazil and should be thrown out.

The miner argues it did not own or operate the dam, which held mining waste known as tailings, and that Samarco operated independently. It also says it had no knowledge the dam’s stability was compromised before it collapsed.

BHP’s lawyer Shaheed Fatima told the court on Wednesday that the case against it was fundamentally flawed.

“The claimants appear to say that BHP was so motivated to make profits from their investment in Samarco that they got behind the wheel, they operated the business, they put profits before safety,” she said. “This is unrealistic and illogical.”

Fatima added: “The profits before safety allegation, that is particularly far-fetched and unjustified.”

She said that BHP’s former finance chief Peter Beaven, who is due to give evidence next month, said in a witness statement: “BHP had a culture which was embedded throughout the organization from top to bottom of safety before anything else.”

The ongoing 12-week trial to determine whether BHP is liable to the claimants comes as the Brazilian authorities’ negotiations with BHP, Vale and Samarco over a nearly $30 billion compensation deal continue.

Sources close to the negotiations told Reuters a final agreement could have an impact on the London lawsuit, a suggestion the claimants’ law firm Pogust Goodhead rejected.

(By Sam Tobin; Editing by Mark Potter)

Latin America’s biggest economy holds 5% of the world’s uranium resources and only produces a tiny amount of the nuclear reactor fuel, according to the World Nuclear Association. Brazil’s resources rank eighth globally, well behind Australia, Kazakhstan and Canada. The last assessment of Brazilian reserves took place 40 years ago, but elevated uranium prices are reviving the nation’s ambitions to seek out new deposits.

Nuclear Industries of Brazil — or INB — is seeking to collaborate with global companies to carry out new research in regions known for their mineral potential. The state-owned company plans to call for bids from partners interested in exploring areas in Brazil’s northeast, midwest and south by year end.

“We aim to move forward 40 years in four,” INB President Adauto Seixas said in an interview. “We have already received visits from companies from Russia, India, Korea, France, Australia, the United States and China.”

Brazil’s push comes amid surging interest in uranium, with investors piling into a radioactive metal that underpins a global push to tap carbon-free energy in the form of nuclear power. Uranium prices this year peaked in early February and though they’ve since retreated, levels are still above the historical average.

The Brazilian initiative is called the Uranium and Associated Mineral Resources Prospecting and Mining Partnership Program — or Prouranio. Exploration will be in areas that hold other minerals including copper, gold and rare earth elements that occur alongside uranium. INB’s strategy includes mining already mapped areas with help from private firms.

Yet, Brazilian minerals research industry group ABPM argues that a partnership model doesn’t suit the private sector, which would want to operate independently. The group’s head, Luis Mauricio Azevedo, suggests that Brazil should open up uranium exploration and development — a move that could help boost global supplies.

“If we have the reserves we imagine, Brazil could be a storehouse of energy for the world,” he said.

Miners are already approaching INB to collaborate on developing potential uranium from its rare earth deposits. Australia’s OAR Resources signed a memorandum of understanding in August to determine the potential for some projects. Brazil produces 105 tons a year — enough to cover about a quarter of uranium the country uses to feed two nuclear reactors west of Rio de Janeiro.

Despite Brazil’s desire to go big in uranium, government bureaucracy may be a hurdle. Fertilizer producer Galvani partnered with INB to extract and process phosphate products and uranium concentrate more than a decade ago, yet the company is still waiting for permits to operate a project known as Santa Quiteria.

Galvani expects to get its first environmental license for the mine this year after Brazil’s nuclear regulator approved the location and authorities agreed to analyze the project’s environmental impacts, chief executive officer Marcelo Silvestre said. He said the operation, which could start by 2028, may produce 2,300 tons of uranium a year — enough to turn Brazil into an exporter.

Galvani expects to invest 2.5 billion reais ($438 million) in Santa Quiteria, according to the CEO, who also said the firm would consider bidding in future INB auctions.

INB is also seeking partners for production in the southeast mining area of Gandarela as well as northeast Brazil’s Lagoa Real, which would involve expanding its Caetite mine and concentration plant — the country’s only operational facility. INB plans to raise 66.7 billion reais through production partnerships over three decades.

(By Mariana Durao)

Yet prices for all three EV battery inputs have fallen to such bombed-out levels that producers are curtailing output and deferring new projects.

This is partly a problem of oversupply. Explosive price rallies in 2021 and 2022 resulted in too much new production capacity being brought online too quickly.

But it is also a problem of demand.

The transition away from the internal combustion engine has by no means ground to a halt. Global new energy vehicle sales were up by 20% year-on-year in January-August, according to consultancy Rho Motion.

Rather, the mix of vehicles being sold and the evolution of battery chemistry have dramatically changed the metals demand dynamic.

The rise of the hybrids

Pure battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales have underperformed expectations due to buyers’ concerns about limited driving range and charging infrastructure.

By contrast, hybrid and plug-in hybrid cars, which have both a battery and internal combustion engine, have soared in popularity.

The increase in global sales of BEVs slowed to 10% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2024, while plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales jumped 46%, according to Rho Motion.

This trend has been led by China, the world’s largest EV market. The key driver is the emergence of the extended range electric vehicle (EREV), a type of PHEV that uses the gasoline engine solely to charge the battery, giving the vehicle an extended driving range of more than 1,000 kilometres (621 miles).

EREVs now account for 31% of all plug-in hybrid sales in China, according to research house Adamas Intelligence, which expects them to enjoy similar success in both Europe and the United States.

Major automakers are embracing hybrids in all forms as a relatively low-cost transition technology between gasoline and pure electric vehicles.

Hybrids don’t need the same battery power as a BEV. Adamas calculates that battery pack capacity in a PHEV is a third of that in a BEV, which means a similar-sized reduction in the amount of lithium, nickel and cobalt used per vehicle.

Other metals, however, stand to benefit from the rise of the hybrids. Platinum and palladium, which are used to clean auto exhausts, have been granted an unexpected new lease of life.

Changing chemistry

While the new energy vehicle mix is changing, so too is battery chemistry.

Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries (LFP) have become the rising stars of the battery industry, accounting for around 40% of battery demand in 2023, more than double the share recorded in 2020, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

As with the new extended range hybrids, the LFP revolution is being led by China, where two-thirds of EV sales used this technology in 2023, the IEA estimates.

Chinese battery makers have turned what was once regarded as a low-power technology suitable only for short city commutes into a product that can compete with nickel-manganese-cobalt battery chemistries.

China’s CATL unveiled a new break-through LFP battery at the Beijing auto show in April. The Shenxing Plus boasts a driving range of 1,000 kilometres on a single charge, effectively eliminating range anxiety.

The only critical metal input for an LFP battery is lithium. It doesn’t require either nickel or cobalt, which makes an LFP battery both cheaper and more environmentally friendly than other chemistries.

The market has taken note. Demand forecasts for nickel and cobalt use in batteries have been steadily downgraded over the last year to factor in China’s pivot towards LFP technology.

Going global

European and US automakers have until now stuck with high-nickel chemistries in their EV batteries but that may be starting to change.

Both Ford Motor and General Motors have shown interest in using CATL’s LFP technology.

Moreover, while China has been the only mass-producer of LFP batteries since the 2010s, the core patents that enabled this dominance expired in 2022.

This has sparked interest outside China.

For example, the IEA has noted a surge of LFP investment in Morocco, which is home to the world’s largest phosphate reserves. Importantly, it also holds free-trade agreements with both the European Union and the United States.

A twisting road

Li Auto’s L6 family sports utility vehicle is an example of how hybrid and LFP technologies have come together to upset preconceived notions about the EV market.

Boasting what the company calls “the latest generation of lithium-iron-phosphate battery”, the vehicle has a range of 212 kilometres in pure battery mode and a range of 1,390 kilometres in mixed battery-engine mode.

The Li6 can accelerate from zero to 100 kilometres an hour in 5.4 seconds, which lays to rest any fear that LFP batteries can’t deliver the same performance as nickel-rich batteries.

Such products are good news for the broader energy transition, offering consumers a cheap, reliable alternative route to an all-electric future.

But they challenge the idea that the global auto market will jump straight from the internal combustion engine to a pure battery vehicle.

They also defy expectations that all EV batteries need nickel and cobalt to enhance power and performance.

What’s more, the battery revolution has only just begun. Battery makers are investing heavily in research and development with the goal of developing ever cheaper, more powerful batteries.

Even lithium is at risk of substitution from sodium-ion batteries as CATL and other Chinese companies such as BYD expand capacity for the new technology.

Sodium-ion batteries could cost up to 20% less than incumbent technologies and can be used for both stationary storage and compact urban EVs, according to the IEA.

They use no lithium but, depending on chemistry, need both nickel and manganese, which foreshadows the potential for more metallic twists in the unpredictable electric vehicle revolution.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Louise Heavens)

The backing of the MSP, a coalition of 14 countries and the European Union committed to boosting investments in responsible critical mineral supply chains, highlights Serra Verde’s strategic importance in providing essential minerals for sustainable energy technologies, the company said.

“The announcement is a strong endorsement of the significant role that Serra Verde can play in establishing sustainable, secure, and diversified rare earth supply chains to enable the global energy transition,” chief executive officer Thras Moraitis said in a statement.

“Federal, state, and international coordination on critical minerals is essential to ensure these projects reach the necessary scale to compete and drive our industry forward.”

Serra Verde’s recognition, which also came with a $150 million investment from the Energy and Minerals Group, Vision Blue Resources and founding investor Denham Capital, makes it further stand out as one of only two producing rare earths mines in the Americas after MP Materials‘ (NYSE: MP) Mountain Pass project in California. 

As the only large-scale producer outside of Asia of neodymium, praseodymium, terbium and dysprosium — four critical rare earth elements needed for efficient permanent magnets — Serra Verde is expected to play a key role in the diversification of global supply chains. The investment will be used for operational improvements as well as long-term growth initiatives.

“The United States, a member of the MSP, welcomes the new investment in Serra Verde’s rare earth elements project in Brazil,” government spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a separate statement.

“This milestone investment supports the sustainable development of critical mineral supply chains most relevant to clean energy technologies, such as for rare earth elements, which are core components of the permanent magnets needed for wind turbines, electric vehicle motors, air conditioners, and other vital applications,” Miller noted.

In production since early 2024, Pela Ema mine Phase I is expected to yield at least 5,000 tonnes per year of rare earth oxides over a 25-year mine life, with off-take agreements already in place for a large proportion of planned production. 

The company has detected significant potential to increase capacity through plant optimization and is mulling a Phase II expansion that could double production before the end of this decade.

Unlike rare earth elements present in hard rock, those in ionic clays can be extracted with low-cost mining techniques and processed using technologies that don’t require hazardous chemicals, crushing, milling or acid leaching. This means the environmental impacts of mining ionic clays are lower than at other rare earth operations.

Long haul

The MSP, chaired by South Korea, works with both governments and industry to develop sustainable, diversified energy mineral supply chains. By providing financial and diplomatic support, the group helps accelerate the growth of critical mineral projects worldwide. 

Brazil holds the world’s third-largest rare earth reserves and has big ambitions to build an industry as Western economies attempt to break China’s dominance of the supply chain.

Last year, the Asian powerhouse produced 240,000 tonnes of rare earths, over five times more than the next largest producer, the United States, data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows. The country also processed nearly 90% of the global supply into permanent magnets, which are critical components in products ranging from wind turbines and electric vehicles to missiles.

Nations such as Australia, Vietnam and Brazil are struggling to close the gap. Serra Verde’s project, for instance, took around 15 years to reach the production stage.

The agreement, following a visit by a Nigerien delegation to Turkey, aims to help Turkish companies undertake exploration in Niger, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar wrote on X, without elaborating on the nature of potential projects.

The two sides met to see where “Turkish companies could get involved in Niger’s mining sector,” said Ibrahim Hamidou, head of communications for Prime Minister Ali Lamine Zeine.

It’s unclear if Niger, which has been controlled by a junta since a coup last year and is one of the world’s biggest uranium producers, is weighing giving Turkey access to undeveloped or existing mines.

The military government revoked uranium permits from French and Canadian companies shortly after coming to power. Since then Russia has sought to take over some assets, capitalizing on improved relations with a string of African nations rocked by coups last year.

Turkish state mining firm Maden Tetkik ve Arama Genel Mudurlugu has previously studied gold deposits in Niger, according to its website. In July, Turkish officials including Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and spy chief Ibrahim Kalin visited as part of Ankara’s efforts to secure access to uranium.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long sought to deepen Turkey’s ties in Africa. As part of that, he’s seeking sources of uranium for the country’s nascent nuclear-power industry.

(By Patrick Sykes and Katarina Höije)

Boliden’s third quarter operating profit, excluding the revaluation of process inventory, totalled 3.0 billion Swedish crowns ($274 mln), up 58% from 1.9 billion crowns a year earlier.

That was above the expectation of 2.3 billion Swedish crowns seen in a company-provided consensus.

“Our mine production during the quarter has been good,” Boliden’s chief executive Mikael Staffas said, adding that the Garpenberg mine has had a record ore output and the Kankberg mine set a new record production for gold.

Quarterly revenue for the mining group rose 14% to 22.2 billion crowns, from 19.4 billion in the same period last year.

Shares in Boliden rose 8% in early trading before giving up their gains.

In a research note, JPMorgan noted Boliden’s 2024 guidance is unchanged but said the 2025 outlook is weaker than its own estimate.

Staffas told Reuters that it is feasible the company will finish 2024 very close to the initial guidance.

The company announced in September it expected delays to start of Odda expansion project, now expected at the end of the first quarter of 2025.

The delay came after a string of hurdles over the recent quarters, with falling metal prices, lower mining grades and the suspension of production at the company’s Tara mine, on top of the fire at its smelter at Ronneskar last year.

On Tara, Europe’s largest zinc mine, the company said preparations for a restart are running according to plan.

It also added it expects to recognize an insurance income of 935 million crowns in the fourth quarter of 2024 related to the fire.

(By Tilla Sjaavaag; Editing by Matt Scuffham)

The European Union, rushing to develop a 9 million euro joint purchasing mechanism for critical minerals and energy, is choosing between eight bidders vying to develop a platform, documents showed and sources with direct knowledge told Reuters.

The bloc’s rationale for pooling together buying orders is that it would hand participants more leverage to achieve more favourable deals and prices for critical minerals essential for the green transition that trade in thin and opaque markets often dominated by China.

The EU aims to sign a contract by the end of the year and start developing sections of the platform for individual products early next year, an EU source who declined to be named told Reuters.

The winner of the tender would be paid about 9 million euros to set up and hand over a platform to the EU, documents seen by Reuters showed.

The eight bidders include major consulting groups Deloitte and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), both of which declined to comment.

Germany’s Metalshub and Enmacc submitted a joint bid, telling Reuters they propose to use their existing trading platforms for metals and energy for the EU project.

EU Commission spokesperson Johanna Bernsel said an online consultation with 66 responses showed industry backing for the initiative.

“Overall, the survey revealed wide support for setting up a demand aggregation and matchmaking platform for strategic raw materials.”

EU officials are hurrying to develop the initiative, a key element in the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), on a mandate of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, another source said.

“The imperative comes from the very top. Von der Leyen … wants people to move quickly,” said the source, who also declined to be named as they were not authorized to speak publicly.

The CRMA, which came into force in May, aims to boost domestic production and processing of critical minerals, whilst weaning off dependence on China.

Supply chain in place

Some possible users, however, say they already have supply chains in place for key inputs such as lithium and cobalt for electric vehicle batteries.

“Larger companies that have already established their supply chains for critical raw materials, such as battery raw materials, are unlikely to use this platform,” said Karol Bednarek, raw materials consultant with the German auto industry association VDA.

The platform may be useful, however, for sourcing materials certified as sustainable or niche materials such as germanium and gallium, he added.

The EU initiative is positive, but also has potential pitfalls, said the Spanish Association of Automotive Suppliers.

“Automotive suppliers typically source processed raw materials of very specific grades that require certification, which makes bundling demand more challenging,” Carolina López, head of sustainability for the group, told Reuters.

CEO Vincent Yang of Taiwanese battery maker ProLogium Technology Co said its cathode material suppliers have already signed procurement agreements with mineral producers.

ProLogium, in which Mercedes-Benz is an investor, plans to launch a 5.2 billion euro gigafactory in France in 2027 to produce its next-generation EV batteries.

Any platform must protect data regarding the specifics of what each buyer is requesting, which could expose trade secrets, Yang and other industry sources said.

Minerals and energy?

The EU has targeted critical minerals – vital for the energy transition for EVs and wind turbines – as a key sector to strengthen as the bloc seeks to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

But combining 17 critical minerals plus natural gas and hydrogen in the same platform would not work because the markets are very different, several industry sources said.

The new system is being patterned after an existing platform for joint buying of gas, AggregateEU, which was launched during the energy crisis in 2022.

The EU says it has been a success, but a report by the European Court of Auditors questioned the effectiveness of the platform.

(By Eric Onstad; Editing by Veronica Brown and David Evans)

Shares of the Swedish company were down 3.3% at 1032 GMT.

Sandvik, among the first of the Nordic industrials to report quarterly results, is considered a reliable indicator of demand given its broad customer base.

Quarterly order intake excluding acquisitions rose 2% organically to 28.8 billion Swedish crowns ($2.73 billion), driven by solid demand in the mining and software businesses despite challenges in other segments.

“The softer demand was broad-based, but most negative in Europe, and the low demand from the automotive industry notable in all regions,” CEO Stefan Widing said in a statement.

JPMorgan analysts said the results missed expectations across key metrics, hit by tough demand environment especially in Sandvik’s cutting tools and infrastructure units, while mining remained solid.

“The earlier hoped for improvement in markets condition has clearly not come through,” they wrote in a note to clients.

China’s stimulus package, which aims to refinance local government debt to boost construction but lacks specific spending details, has sparked concerns of lower demand for mining equipment makers like Sandvik.

Widing told reporters on a call that it was too early to assess the full impact of the stimulus package, but said he viewed it as a positive step that could help revive economic activity in China.

Sandvik’s adjusted operating profit fell 7% from a year earlier to 5.38 billion crowns in the third quarter, missing a mean forecast of 5.68 billion crowns from analysts polled by LSEG.

Items affecting comparability, mainly restructuring costs, had a negative impact of 455 million crowns on its unadjusted figures.

($1 = 10.5315 Swedish crowns)

(By Jesus Calero; Editing by Milla Nissi)

Gold pared gains after reaching a fresh record high amid tensions in the Middle East and the approaching US presidential election.

Bullion rose as much as 0.7% before retreating as some investors booked profits after the precious metal’s four-day winning streak. It breached the $2,700-an-ounce threshold last week, with analysts attributing gains to haven demand amid uncertainty around the outcome of the US election and ongoing worries over the Middle East. Israel has been discussing its attack on Iran after a Hezbollah drone exploded near Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private home at the weekend.

Silver advanced as much as 1.7% on Monday to the highest since 2012 before surrendering those gains.

Gold has hit successive all-time highs in recent months and is up by more than 30% this year. Along with haven demand and US political uncertainty, the rally has been fueled by robust central-bank buying and expectations of US interest-rate cuts. Lower rates are often seen as bullish for non-interest bearing gold.

“The simple bottom line is that gold thrives on uncertainty,” said Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia at StoneX. “The lack of clarity over the medium-term direction of US foreign policy is adding to nervousness.”

Meanwhile, money managers have increased net-long positions in gold, while investors have added to exchange-traded fund holdings in recent sessions. SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest bullion-backed ETF, registered the biggest weekly inflow since March. Gold futures may rise to average $3,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025, Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.

Spot gold was little change at $2,721.31 an ounce at 4:42 p.m. in London. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index and US 10-year Treasury yield gained. Palladium and platinum fell.

Read More: Economic growth the main driver of long-term gold price, WGC research suggests

The trial, expected to last up to 12 weeks, will determine whether BHP is legally responsible for the collapse of the Fundão tailings dam in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The structure failure caused a massive flood that claimed 19 lives, destroyed villages and severely polluted water sources for local communities. The dam was owned by Samarco, a joint venture between BHP and Brazilian mining giant Vale (NYSE: VALE).

The case has been winding its way through the English judicial system for six years, with various judges holding conflicting opinions on whether the case can proceed. In 2022, appeal judges cleared the path for a full trial to take place.

The plaintiffs in the case include more than 600,000 Brazilian citizens, 46 municipalities and 2,000 businesses, all challenging BHP’s role in the disaster. Lawyers representing the victims argued on Monday that BHP has been attempting to evade its responsibility.

The world’s largest mining company is disputing liability, arguing that the London lawsuit duplicates legal proceedings and reparation programs in Brazil, and should be dismissed.

It also claims that nearly $8 billion has already been paid to those affected through the Renova Foundation, with around $1.7 billion going to claimants in the English case.

BHP’s lawyers stated in court that no law or contract imposes a duty of safety on the parent company of a non-controlling shareholder or the other parent company in the same group. They also argued the miner did not breach any safety duty, nor did its actions cause the collapse.

BHP further described parts of the lawsuit as “implausible or exaggerated.”

Settlement in Brazil

This trial comes shortly after BHP and Vale announced they were in talks with Brazilian authorities regarding a potential settlement of $31.7 billion to compensate for the damage caused to people, communities, and the environment.

Pogust Goodhead, the law firm representing the plaintiffs in London, said that the settlement talks in Brazil will not affect the UK case. 

“The timing of these negotiations only highlights how the companies responsible for Brazil’s largest environmental disaster are doing everything possible to prevent the victims from obtaining justice. It reflects the same shameful conduct they have displayed over the past nine years,” the firm said in a statement.

The multi-week hearing, the largest group litigation in English legal history, will also examine whether Brazilian municipalities can bring legal action, the effect of any agreements made by English claimants with BHP, and whether the claims were filed too late.

BHP and Vale agreed in July to equally share the cost of any damages related to proceedings in the UK.

The council of Loznica, population around 20,000 about 100 km west of Belgrade, is deciding whether to amend its official plan to allow the 250-hectare development. The hard-rock lithium project has sparked massive protests while see-sawing between official support and rejection for years.

Slated to start in 2028, it would produce 58,000 tonnes a year of battery-grade lithium carbonate, about 17% of European demand and enough for one million electric vehicles. The mine might last 40 years. Rio, the world’s second largest miner by stock market value, and the government faced mass rallies again this week, swollen by an unlikely combination of causes.

“Rio Tinto is the hottest issue in the country right now,” Vuk Vuksanovic, an associate at the London School of Economics’ Ideas foreign policy think tank, said by email on Friday.

“The anti-lithium protests and environmentalism are the only things that at least temporarily unite left and right in Serbia. The left perceives it as a resistance against the arbitrary and illiberal governance of the incumbent coalition. The right perceives it as a struggle against Western dominance.”

Court ruling

Loznica council hasn’t set date for its vote, but local Balkan Insights media said on X it’s due this month. In August, Serbia’s Constitutional Court sided with Rio in overturning a 2022 government decision to block the project. Pundits note Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić might have cancelled the project’s permit in January 2022 in a ploy to win re-election that April.

But analysts view Vučić as pro-mining. He said in June he would revive the project, then signed a partnership with the European Union (it’s not a member) in July to supply critical minerals. His administration defeated an opposition-led motion on Oct. 10 to ban lithium exploration.

Vučić’s critics say he’s tightened control over media and rewarded supporters with government jobs. Whether he would allow a local council-level vote to derail the Jadar Valley project remains to be seen. But miners have at times benefited from authoritarian governments’ willingness to push through projects.

And Rio is no stranger to difficult ventures. It’s advancing the Simandou high-grade iron ore deposit in Guinea where it’s helping build a 600-km rail line and port. It’s considered Africa’s largest mining and related infrastructure project. In Arizona, the company is facing opposition to its Resolution copper project from the Apache Stronghold coalition of tribes.

Big M&A

Rio has little experience in lithium, with most of its production in iron ore, aluminum and copper. However, this month it announced the $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium (ASX: LTM; NYSE: ALTM) to become the third-largest lithium miner. It has also been developing the Rincon lithium brine project in Argentina. It expects first lithium from a pilot plant, and a feasibility study and final investment decision on the wider project this quarter.

At Jadar, Rio plans to apply in December for a permit allowing geotechnical work while prepping an environmental impact assessment that could take two years to complete. In third-quarter production results this week, Rio repeated comments about the project:

“We continue to believe that the Jadar project has the potential to be a world-class lithium-borates asset that could act as a catalyst for the development of other industries and thousands of jobs for current and future generations in Serbia.”

Last month, Rio CEO Jakob Stausholm flew to Serbia to participate in public information meetings that were broadcast on television. He was combatting what the company and Serbia’s mining and energy ministry have called disinformation campaigns. Media have reported the spread of online conspiracy theories like the project will trigger sulphuric acid rain, pollute drinking water or even secretly mine uranium.

Even so, Stausholm said locals have pertinent concerns about air quality and soil contamination that he and the company are working to allay. Rio seeks “to encourage an open, fact-based dialogue” in legally mandated public consultations, it said this week.

Environmental opposition

The project, which began after Rio geologists discovered the hard rock deposit in 2004, has fostered strong opposition throughout its history, said Teresa Kramarz, assistant professor at the University of Toronto’s School of the Environment. Some studies after exploration showed elevated boron, arsenic, and lithium in nearby rivers, she said.

“These protests and environmental costs highlight the need for wider conversations about trade-offs,” Teresa Kramarz, assistant professor at the University of Toronto’s School of the Environment, said by email.

“The idea that there’s only one way to decarbonize, and people will inevitably accept transfers of risk from one population to another or trade one type of risk for another is not going to work – particularly for those who experience disproportionate disadvantages and inequitable outcomes.”

Some analysts cited by The Wall St. Journal say the current opposition since the project’s revival is remarkable for its intensity. The US State Department has said the disinformation resembles Russian campaigns, like those to discourage shale-gas drilling to maintain Russian energy dominance in Europe. Others said it’s an attempt to dissuade Belgrade’s drift to the West and potential EU membership.

Cynical left

Vuksanovic disagreed, while still noting the impact on the West.

“The Russians are not behind it, but they take pleasure in the fact that the nationalist element of this protest is getting stronger,” he told The Northern Miner.

“Moreover, even the left, civic, pro-EU segments of Serbian society are getting increasingly cynical that the West and Europe are willing to engage the incumbent government and tolerate its domestic transgressions for the sake of lithium exploitation, weakening the EU and the US’s prestige in the country even further.”

Mikhail Korostikov, a visiting fellow at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, said vast numbers of Serbians oppose the project because they don’t believe the government is capable of enforcing environmental regulations. Even if they could, the rules aren’t strong enough, Korostikov said in a report last month for the centre.

He suggested importing EU environmental structure to oversee the project and trying to create as many jobs linked to the mine as possible in areas of procurement and mineral processing. Defeating the opposition requires making the project’s benefits more significant than any environmental consequences, he said.

“This will require serious courage and strategic vision on the part of all those involved in the political process, but it is essential,” Korostikov said. “There may not be another opportunity like this to integrate into the new economy and gain a bargaining leverage with the EU in the coming decades.”

Explorers and developers often overstate the certainty of mineral resource classifications based on inadequate data, Desharnais said at an event in Vancouver on Wednesday. The practice has in some instances led to unexpected analyst downgrades, soaring costs and debt, and the derailment of promising assets.

“That classification debt, unfortunately, needs to get paid,” he told about 430 conference participants from 21 countries at CIM’s first Mineral Resources & Mineral Reserves conference. “The CEO may be walking around with a 3-million-oz. resource estimate, but they haven’t earned that classification with sufficient drilling. When the debt comes due, it’s often through painful reclassifications and revisions.”

Decade of missteps

Several recent projects have demonstrated the high cost of classification debt.

Rubicon Resources’ catastrophic 91% downgrade in resource estimates in 2015 stands as one of the most glaring examples. After it began initial production at the F2 gold deposit on its Phoenix property in Ontario’s Red Lake district, the company found the deposit to be uneconomic, shuttering the operation. It had not completed a feasibility study for the high-grade project.

The size of the downgrade blindsided investors and stakeholders, and the company had to undergo a painful restructuring to survive. Rebranded as Battle North Gold, Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) bought it and its renamed Bateman project in 2021 for $343 million.

In 2018, Pretium Resources promoted the Brucejack gold project in northwestern British Columbia’s Golden Triangle, now owned by Newmont (NYSE: NEM, TSX: NGT, ASX: NEM, PNGX: NEM), as a high-grade gold deposit. Yet, the asset disappointed when gold production grades fell far below expectations.

The nuggety nature of the gold, with Brucejack’s steeply dipping quartz veins and erratic grade distribution, made it difficult to consistently meet production targets, forcing the company to push tonnage through the mill to compensate for lower-than-expected grades.

Aurora (2018), Rainy River (2019), and Gold Bar (2020) show how resource overestimation hurt Guyana Goldfields, New Gold (TSX: NGD; NYSE: NGD) and McEwen Mining (TSX: MUX; NYSE: MUX). They had to downgrade estimates mid-operation. This triggered mine plan revisions, soaring costs, production delays, and financial strain.

Grade versus geometric risk

Desharnais identifies two types of risk that contribute to resource misclassification: grade risk and geometric risk.

Grade risk reflects patchiness in ore quality, while geometric risk involves uncertainty about the size and shape of mineralized domains within the deposit.

Conditional simulations help assess grade risk, Desharnais said, but tools to quantify geometric risk are lacking.

Companies often overestimate deposit geometry without tighter drilling, leading to costly misjudgments.

“Sparse drilling gives us a simpler picture than reality,” he explained, adding that only closely spaced drilling can reveal the true complexity of orebodies.

Best practices

Mathieu Doucette, a senior geologist at ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT), talked about the difficulty of classifying resources at Canada’s largest iron mine, the Mont-Wright iron ore mine in Quebec, producing continuously since 1974. Outdated data can affect current resource estimates. He illustrated how mixing in fresh drill holes helps manage geological risk as part of a dynamic model essential to avoid misclassification.

“The first thing [a QP] will do is akin to lighting a torch,” he said. “But everything on the edges is dark, and you can’t really see it. Drill holes are our ability to try and get some information, but sparse data hides the full picture.”

David Machuca-Mory, a principal consultant at SRK Consulting, said fixed models are risky. Deposits can be more unpredictable than they seem. Adaptive methods help ensure estimates reflect reality, reducing the chance of costly surprises.

“Even with dense drilling, some areas remain highly uncertain,” Machuca-Mory said. “Confidence intervals are large, and relying solely on drill spacing doesn’t always guarantee accurate classification.”

Cognitive biases

Desharnais said that misclassification is not just a technical problem; human psychology plays a significant role.

Anchoring bias makes companies stick with initial estimates despite new data. Authority bias pressures geologists and consultants to confirm favourable results to please management or investors.

“The consulting firm wants the next contract,” Desharnais said. “The CEO has family and friends invested and needs good news. These biases create a system where classification debt builds up across projects, only to be paid through painful revisions later.”

Owning up

Desharnais argued for more conservative resource models and said benchmarking against operating mines would help set realistic expectations. He suggested that technical reports include histograms that show the distance between drill holes and classified resources, he added.

“It forces the QP or CP to look at what they’ve done and ask: Does this make sense?” he said. “Transparent reporting would help prevent overly aggressive classifications, ensuring companies earn their resource classifications with sufficient data.”

Such measures may slow development, but they could also reduce the prevalence of misclassified resources in the industry. Desharnais urged geologists to scrutinize each block of material above the cut-off grade.

“Over-promising today only delays the inevitable correction tomorrow,” he said.