Total transaction value as of Sept. 30 was $4.76 billion, down more than 50% compared to the $10.52 billion registered in the full year 2023, according to S&P’s latest report.

Steel producer H2GS AB’s (H2 Green Steel) $4.14 billion funding round in January led all private equity and venture capital deals in the metals and mining sector during that period.

The number of announced deals in the first three quarters totalled 59, on the year on track for the fewest deals in five years.

In the third quarter alone, total deal value plunged 80% year over year to $240 million from $1.22 billion, and the deal count dwindled to 15 from 37.

Antti Gronlund, managing director of UK-based private equity Appian Capital Advisory, said higher acquisition debt financing rates and reduced venture capital deployments have contributed to lower totals.

Transactions in 2023 may have benefited from large deals and non-sector-focused investors attracted by upbeat headlines focused on electric vehicles, which require significant amounts of critical minerals. Those headlines are now more subdued, affecting deal appetite, Gronlund explained.

Private equity investing is challenging because the sector is “working capital intensive,” added Kyle Mumford, partner at KPS Capital Partners LP.

“There are no small capital requests in a metals business. There’s only really big ones,” Mumford continued. “Unlike other businesses, in metals and mining, change in profitability and manufacturing to meet the demand that may be out there takes a long time and is really hard. It can mean a new equipment or a new mill or a new recycling capacity.

“Those are expensive and don’t often meet typical private equity return profiles.”

Still, opportunity exists for further investment in the coming years. Appian’s Gronlund noted that the mining industry is expected to require about $2.1 trillion by 2050 to support global net-zero goals, citing BloombergNEF estimates.

“A significant portion of that will need to come from private capital sources,” he added.

Robust demand in the world’s second-biggest gold consumer could further support global prices, which hit record highs last week. Rising demand for imports of gold could also widen India’s trade deficit and put pressure on the rupee.

“People are still into gold big time, even with prices at record highs during Dhanteras. With gold giving better returns than the stock market, there’s been solid demand for coins and bars,” said Saurabh Gadgil, chairman of PNG Jewellers.

Indians were celebrating Dhanteras on Tuesday, a day considered auspicious for buying gold and one of the busiest gold-buying days in India.

Local gold prices jumped to a record high of 78,919 rupees per 10 grams last week, marking an increase of more than 31% since last year’s Diwali. India’s NSE Nifty 50 share index has dropped about 7% from a record high hit on Sept. 27.

Investors are working to diversify their portfolios by adding to or increasing their allocations in gold and silver, Gadgil said.

“In value terms, turnover during this year’s Dhanteras is expected to be significantly higher than last year due to higher prices. In volume terms, it may be slightly lower or around the same level as last year,” Prithviraj Kothari, president of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), said.

Indian dealers on Tuesday charged a premium of up to $1 an ounce over official domestic prices – inclusive of 6% import and 3% sales levies, up from the last week’s discount of $4.

Local silver futures hit a record high of 100,081 rupees per kilogram last week.

“Demand for silver coins and bars was strong today, as silver has delivered better returns than gold in recent months,” said Chirag Thakkar, CEO of Amrapali Group Gujarat, a leading silver importer.

(By Rajendra Jadhav; Editing by Susan Fenton)

The study, published just a day after the United Nations warned the world is falling “miles short” of what’s needed to curb devastating global warming, indicates that an investment of $78 trillion will be needed to change this course and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations committed to limiting global warming to “well below” two degrees Celsius above the average temperatures recorded between 1850 and 1900, aiming for a target of 1.5 degrees Celsius if feasible. Efforts to date have not succeeded in meeting this challenge, the annual “Energy Transition Outlook” from Wood Mackenzie shows.

Unlike the UN pessimistic outlook, the Scottish consultancy believes that while major obstacles hinder short-term targets, particularly for 2030, a 2050 net-zero goal remains feasible. Immediate and coordinated global action would be necessary, WoodMac warns.

Threats to climate progress

A series of global crises, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, escalating Middle East violence, rising populism in Europe and global trade tensions with China, are undermining the pace of the energy transition, Wood Mackenzie’s vice president head of scenarios and technologies, Prakash Sharma, said. 

He explains that without urgent policy changes and enhanced investment, a warming trajectory of 2.5˚C to 3˚C could become inevitable.

“We are under no illusion as to how challenging the net zero transition will be, given the fact that fossil fuels are widely available, cost-competitive and deeply embedded in today’s complex energy system,” Sharma added. “A price on carbon maybe the most effective way to drive emissions reduction but it’s hard to see it coming together in a polarized environment.”

Key investment are needed across several critical areas, according to WoodMac. As renewable energy sources grow, substantial upgrades to power supply and grid infrastructure are essential to meet the growing demand. Additionally, the need for critical minerals, such as lithium, nickel and cobalt, is projected to increase five- to ten-fold by 2050, as demand for batteries and other technologies essential for the energy transition continues to grow. 

WoodMac sees the need to back the development of emerging technologies, including carbon capture, low-carbon hydrogen, and nuclear power, are vital for facilitating the shift towards cleaner energy sources.

Securing this funding won’t be easy, the consultants noted. “Doubling annual investments to $3.5 trillion by 2050 will be necessary in our net zero scenario,” Sharma said, adding that it will require unprecedented policy coordination globally.

The role of electrification

The electrification of energy systems will play a pivotal role in decarbonization. Transitioning from fossil fuels to electric power, Wood Mackenzie forecasts that electricity’s share of global energy demand will increase from 23% to 35% by 2050 in a base case, and could reach as high as 55% in a net-zero scenario.

Wood Mackenzie’s analysis reveals that global energy demand is set to rise by 14% by 2050. Emerging economies are projected to see even steeper growth at 45%, driven by rising populations and economic advancement. 

In parallel, data centres, electric vehicles, and AI are emerging as new drivers of electricity consumption, with AI-related energy use alone expected to increase from 500 TWh in 2023 to up to 4,500 TWh by 2050.

Including renewable energy source to meet electrifications demand could help reduce emissions, the report says.

According to Wood Mackenzie, solar and wind currently account for 17% of the global power supply, and renewables capacity is expected to double by 2030 in its base case. Yet, this increase still falls short of the COP28 commitment made in 2023 to triple renewables by 2030.

Transition or coexistence?

While nuclear energy holds promise for providing consistent, zero-carbon electricity, its high cost and frequent project delays pose significant challenges. WoodMac says that nuclear power could play a more significant role as it has attracted interest, particularly from tech companies looking to power data centres sustainably.

While fossil fuels is expected to plateau in the 2040s before beginning a gradual decline, Wood Mackenzie predicts that the high capital costs of low-carbon technologies coupled with strong demand for energy, will require the continued use of oil and gas in the near term.

Wood Mackenzie says to meet climate targets there will be necessary that nations gathered at the COP29 meeting in Azerbaijan next month finalize Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. This section focuses on carbon markets and aims to establish a new climate finance goal to replace the previous annual target of $100 billion, which experts consider insufficient.

The consultancy’s report echoes concerns included in a UN Environment Programme (UNEP) study released last week. The document says the next decade is crucial in the battle against climate change, adding that failing to act now will jeopardize any chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. According to the UN body, the current rate of climate action could lead to a catastrophic increase of 3.1 degrees Celsius this century. 

“Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned.

Even if all existing commitments to reduce emissions are fulfilled, global temperatures would still rise by 2.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, experts agree.

The facility will be located in Sohar, a port city about 200 km north of the capital, Muscat. It will have the capacity to process 18 million tonnes of low-grade iron ore a year starting in 2027. The aim is to produce 12.6 million tonnes of high-grade concentrate annually.

Vale will invest $227 million to connect the plant to its pelletizing facilities in the region. Jinnan will invest about $400 million to build and operate the plant, which it will own.

“This project brings together Brazil’s capacity to produce high-quality iron ore and Oman’s prime location and infrastructure to enhance integration between the two countries, while also reinforcing our partnership with China through Jinnan,” Vale’s new CEO Gustavo Pimenta said in a release.

The iron ore is to be transformed into a higher-quality concentrate for the production of premium pellets and, in the future, briquettes, with a reduced environmental impact.

This marks Jinnan’s first project in Oman, supporting the country’s industrial ambitions. The company is known for its leading edge in magnetic separation technology.

Vale intends to replicate this investment model across its mega hubs. The miner has announced three mega hubs in the Middle East (Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) and has signed agreements to develop similar projects in Brazil and the United States.

Shares in Vale gained 1.7% to $62.76 apiece by mid-Monday afternoon in New York, valuing the company at $284.8 billion.

This state-of-the-art refinery will be associated with the new e-waste recycling plant that Hindalco is building in Pakhajan, Gujarat, for which Metso has already been awarded a contract for three Kaldo furnaces, an anode furnace and an anode casting shop, gas cleaning and supporting equipment. 

For the precious metals refinery, the Metso scope of delivery consists of a Kaldo furnace with off-gas handling and silver refining equipment. The Finnish firm will also deliver basic engineering for the precious metals refinery. The order value was not disclosed.

In a press release on Monday, Hindalco stated that commissioning of the plant is expected to take place within two years.

“We are excited to have been trusted with yet another important order from Hindalco Industries. The new plant will allow Hindalco Industries to increase their production of precious metals,” Lauri Närhi, director of sales, smelting, at Metso.

“Our precious metals refining technology ensures high recovery, low operating costs and high-quality products, all achieved within a short processing time. The process is highly automated, offering a safe working environment and zero toxic gas emissions.”

Bain Capital, which backs Korea Zinc’s current leaders, separately secured a 1.41% stake in the company, the world’s biggest zinc smelter said in a regulatory filing.

Run by the Choi family, Korea Zinc has been in a bitter fight for control of the $18 billion zinc empire with the co-founding Chang family, whose conglomerate Young Poong made an initial joint offer with MBK in September.

The latest transactions suggest the overall backing Korea Zinc’s management has won so far is smaller than the stake held by MBK and Young Poong. That raised investor expectations for a prolonged takeover battle, driving Korea Zinc shares to record highs on Monday.

MBK and Young Poong together own about 38.5% of Korea Zinc.

Before the buyback, Korea Zinc’s Choi family had the backing of shareholders that owned up to 36% of the company, including strategic partners such as Hyundai Motor Group, according to analysts.

Korea Zinc said on Monday it had spent 2.07 trillion won ($1.5 billion) on the buyback and would eventually cancel all of its newly acquired shares to raise shareholder value.

Cancellation of the shares means the Chois’ stake will not increase relative to its rival.

Neither side has a majority stake in the case of a proxy fight.

Shares in Korea Zinc jumped as much as 11.7% on Monday to 1.4 million won, 57% above its buyback price of 890,000 won, before ending the session up 3.8% at a record close as the number of shares available to trade have shrunk due to tender offers from both sides.

Korea Exchange warned in a filing late on Monday that if such steep rises in its share price continue, and meet certain criteria, it may halt trading of Korea Zinc shares.

Shares in Young Poong closed up 7.45%.

MBK on Monday nominated 14 new directors for the firm, which currently has 13 board members, and called for Korea Zinc to hold an extraordinary shareholder meeting, as flagged to Reuters by a partner in the fund last week.

The fund also said it would propose a new system to separate management from the board in a bid to improve governance, adding Korea Zinc’s latest share buyback had caused a severe financial hit to the company.

Various shareholders widely viewed as sympathetic to the Chois, such as Hyundai Motor, Hanwha Group and LG Chem, have yet to publicly declare their stance.

South Korea’s National Pension Service, the world’s third-largest pension fund which held a 7.83% stake in Korea Zinc at end-June, is expected to be a key casting vote. It has yet to disclose its stance.

($1 = 1,384.1300 won)

(By Joyce Lee and Heekyong Yang; Editing by Tom Hogue, Stephen Coates, Sonali Paul and Jan Harvey)

Tykac’s Sev.en Group has taken advantage of cheap valuations to buy up coal power stations and mines in the US, Australia and Vietnam, as well as gas-fired plants in the UK. After building his fortune in the Czech Republic, Tykac is using the expansion to shield his wealth from European Union efforts to lead the world in giving up fossil fuels.

It’s also a bet that delays and snags in the transition to renewable energy will keep coal in the mix for years to come, at least outside Europe.

Having amassed foreign assets worth an estimated €3 billion ($3.3 billion) in the past five years, Sev.en is preparing for more and bigger deals, according to Alan Svoboda, chief executive officer of the group’s international business.

“We have much more in the pipeline than in the past, and we’re hoping to grow even faster than we have so far,” he said in an interview at the Prague headquarters of Sev.en Global Investments AS. “We look at hundreds of opportunities every year and submit dozens of binding bids.”

The Vales Point power station outside Sydney is one such example. The Czech company bought the coal-fired facility, which has a license to operate until 2029, two years ago. Yet looming electricity shortages might prompt Australian authorities to extend its lifespan until 2033, according to Svoboda. If that were to happen, it could boost profits, even if it requires additional investment.

“The entire energy sector can’t change overnight, as some people hoped,” the CEO said. “The Australians have realized that it is not totally safe to force a speedy decommissioning of coal plants, and that it is better to let market forces determine when their operation will no longer make business sense.”

As institutional shareholders, lenders and insurers flee environmentally harmful industries in droves, it remains unclear whether the company’s push into coal will pay off. Revenue at Sev.en Global Investments, which now accounts for over 70% of Tykac’s empire, jumped 23% last year to €1.85 billion. Still, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization fell 53% to €432 million as energy prices slid from the record levels notched in 2022.

Including his original Czech company, Sev.en Ceska Energie AS, Tykac now has about 6,000 employees worldwide and a net worth of around $3 billion, according to estimates from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Tykac, who declined to personally comment for this article, started out in business after the Velvet Revolution in 1989, when then-Czechoslovakia ditched communism. His first company was a computer manufacturer, and he later began investing in other local businesses and banks.

After 2006, Tykac transitioned into coal mines and power and heating plants around the Czech Republic. His Pocerady station, near the country’s northern border with Germany, is one of the country’s biggest polluters and has been a frequent target of environmental activists since it went online in the 1970s. It accounts for almost 6% of the country’s entire electricity production.

Unlike many peers, Tykac is not trying to greenwash his image. Sev.en Global Investment’s website describes its business model as focused on risky, high-return projects. It quotes Tykac as saying that his investments are “crucial for our economies” even as others might avoid them for ethical reasons.

“Sufficiency of reliable, safe and affordable electricity,” it reads, “is one of the basic conditions for the existence of today’s civilization.”

Svoboda joined Sev.en in 2018 to take care of its overseas expansion. The 52-year-old former executive at Czech utility CEZ AS says the EU effort to phase out coal is posing “elevated regulatory risk” to companies such as Sev.en.

“We are largely losing interest in Europe, except for the UK,” Svoboda said. “We are drawn to America and Australia.”

While the focus remains on developed nations with stable political systems, Tykac’s empire is also expanding into communist-ruled Vietnam, where it has agreed to buy 70% of a coal plant from American and Chinese investors. The 1.2 gigawatt facility outside Hanoi comes with a supply contract that hedges the owner against swings in exchange rates and coal prices until 2055.

Sev.en is hoping that the investment could be followed by expansion into places like India, Indonesia and Malaysia, according to Svoboda. Many countries in the region aren’t planning to ditch coal anytime soon, and their governments are often willing to compensate foreign owners with long-term guarantees.

“We thought it was time to try something new,” said Svoboda. “We would like to replicate our investment in Vietnam in other places across South-East Asia.”

It does remain easier to secure funding for green projects, which is one reason why the group is also seeking to diversify into industries such as electricity storage and mining minerals, including those used in batteries. In Australia, it is about to start producing potassium-sulfate fertilizer made via an environmentally friendly process.

Over the past 18 months, Sev.en has opened offices in New York, London and Sydney in an effort to expand its global footprint. “We’ve been looking at bigger and bigger transactions,” said Svoboda, adding that the “sweet spot” for acquisitions is currently between €500 million and €1 billion.

Despite the rising appetite, Sev.en remains selective, according to Svoboda.

“Rather than having a broad portfolio of many smaller items,” he said, “our goal is to own a limited number of crown jewels that we go all-in on.”

(By Krystof Chamonikolas)

Since its demerger from Anglo American in 2021, South Africa’s Thungela has pursued a strategy 100% hitched to coal, even while some investors shun the black stuff as a liability in a world under pressure to decarbonize.

“No new mines are being built as a result of either no capital or no licences,” July Ndlovu told Reuters in a virtual interview from Australia, where he said the Ensham mine Thungela acquired a year ago has seen output rise rapidly by a third to reach close to a 4 million tonnes target it had by 2026.

“If you’ve got long life, competitive assets which are low cost, those assets are going to be very valuable,” he said, adding that he currently had no new acquisitions planned.

After a coal rush to offset gas supply interruptions in the wake of Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion, rich nations have continued to sharply cut consumption in order to meet 2015 Paris Agreement pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

That, plus economic troubles in top consumer China, has weighed on prices. Yet they remain much higher than they were for more than a decade before the eight months leading up to the Ukraine war. Asian demand remains strong, Ndlovu said, which was “offsetting the decline in demand in the other regions”.

“I think in the short to medium term, certainly up to 2030 … we’re going to see flat to marginal growth … driven primarily by Asia,” he said.

South Africa’s coal shipments have been dampened by logistical problems at state-owned ports and rail company Transnet, devastating earnings of coal producers like Thungela, Exxaro Resources and Glencore, although those logistical problems have since eased.

Climate scientists say the world must swiftly abandon the world’s most carbon-intensive fuel – cancelling the building of new power stations and retiring existing plants early – to stand a chance of limiting warming to well below an average 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2050.

“I think they are both unrealistic and premature. I’ve not seen a scenario which is zero coal,” Ndlovu said, adding that if there ever was: “We’ll be the ones delivering the last tonne.”

($1 = 17.6725 rand)

(By Tim Cocks; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)

Anglo said its copper output fell 13% in the July to September quarter, while rough diamond production decreased by 25% on cuts due to prolonged lower demand.

Its De Beers diamonds unit is exploring options for further output cuts in future, Anglo said.

For the first nine months of 2024, copper output fell 4% to 575,000 tons and diamond production was down 21% at 18.9 million carats.

Anglo still expects to produce 730,000-790,000 tons of copper and 23-26 million carats of rough diamonds this year, even as it assesses additional production cuts going forward.

Its shares, which have risen around 18% this year, opened up 2.2%.

The mining giant is restructuring its business to mainly focus on energy transition metal copper after fending off a $49 billion takeover offer from bigger rival BHP Group in May.

Copper will make up 60% of Anglo’s business after it sells its Australian steelmaking coal assets and nickel mines in Brazil, as well as divesting De Beers and its platinum business Amplats in South Africa.

Apart from its copper assets in Chile, Anglo will also retain iron ore mines in South Africa and Brazil, as well as the Woodsmith fertilizer project in the United Kingdom, which it has now slowed down.

Anglo said steelmaking coal’s production fell by 6% in the third quarter after shutting its Grosvenor mine in Queensland due to an underground fire.

The London-listed miner, the world’s third-largest exporter of metallurgical coal, lowered its yearly production guidance to 14-15.5 million tons from a previous forecast of 15-17 million.

Anglo said the final round of bidders for the coal assets was in place and it expected to announce the sale agreement within months.

(By Clara Denina and Felix Njini; Editing by Stephen Coates and Mark Potter)

Potash production is expected to reach 73 million metric tons this year, with Russian exports at 12-13 million tons and those from Belarus at around 10 million tons, Julia Campbell, head of the potash pricing service at commodity price agency Argus, said.

Potash prices have started to normalize following a period of volatility following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Russian exports dropped sharply after the war in Ukraine began due to financial and logistical challenges. But these problems have since eased,” Campbell said.

Increased exports from Canada, Jordan and Laos have also boosted global supply and brought down prices, adding to the fears of possible oversupply, with a slight improvement in demand expected only in 2025.

During their half-year earnings reporting, major potash producers such as Germany’s K+S sounded optimistic about growing demand and stabilizing prices.

However, analysts have since warned the abundant global supply would put a cap on pricing, dampening the companies’ earnings prospects.

“I don’t think there’s likely to be any sort of premium pricing or any real pricing benefit as a result of the global supply shift and the global trade shift. We saw that mostly in 2022 and into 2023 when prices were still moderating,” Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein told Reuters.

As such, Canada’s share of global potash trade increased significantly in 2022, while those of Belarus and Russia declined. Prices have since dropped below $300 a ton from a mid-2022 peak of $1,000, on weak demand, data from Argus showed.

“We are likely nearing the operational cost of production, which may force some companies to curb production,” Rabobank analyst Paul Joules said.

Canada’s Nutrien, the world’s top producer of the mineral mainly used in fertilizers, suspended its ramp-up plans for potash production in August, citing market conditions.

Rising shipments, growing concerns

Russian producers have increased shipments to China and India via new rail routes since Russia exited the Black Sea grain deal last year. This has boosted demand in Southeast Asia and South America, Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein said.

Belarusian exporters have shifted cargo from Baltic ports to Russian ones and are offering potash at a discount via these new routes bypassing sanctions, he added.

Meanwhile, Swiss-based Eurochem is expanding facilities at its Usolskiy and Volgakaliy sites in Russia.

“The MOP (muriate of potash, or potassium chloride) sector specifically, is already experiencing a period of very heavy supply,” said Humphrey Knight, an analyst at CRU London.

Farming the price drop

The fall in potash prices has improved affordability of some grains and oilseeds, fertilizer consultant Delphine Leconte-Demarsy from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization said.

“In the US, potash remains more expensive than it was before the price hike, but this is compensated by comparatively higher crop prices,” Leconte-Demarsy said.

But she added local farmers were affected differently depending on logistical costs and exchange rates.

“In China, while potash is currently more affordable than before the price hike for wheat and maize, depressed rice markets curb potash use for this crop,” she said.

In Brazil, a major exporter of agricultural products, potash prices are back to 2019 levels, boosting its use for more highly priced crops such as soybeans and maize.

Farmers will continue to reap the benefits as the tight market is expected to keep potash prices below historical averages, Rabobank’s Joules said.

($1 = 0.9215 euros)

(By Tristan Veyet, Jesus Calero and Luca Fratangelo; Editing by Milla Nissi, Matt Scuffham and David Evans)

Rare earth mining in Myanmar is concentrated in Kachin state around the towns of Panwa and Chipwe, adjacent to southwestern China’s Yunnan province. The region also hosts a number of gem mining sites and is a key trade route into Myitkyina (Kachin state’s capital) and north into China.

A KIA spokesperson told Reuters on Tuesday the group wrested control of the area from the militia group NDA-K over the weekend but did not elaborate on its plans on mining in the region. The NDA-K is allied with the ruling junta and has been working with Chinese companies involved in mining.

In a note on Tuesday, Adamas Intelligence, a Toronto-based rare earth and battery metals research consultancy, said rebel control of these mining sites could potentially disrupt rare earth concentrate shipments into China, which have declined for four months straight owing to the monsoon season and other challenges. 

In June, a landslide at a rare earth mining site in Ngilot village in Panwa region claimed 10 lives and left at least 30 people missing.

Adamas says with Myanmar responsible for 57% of global dysprosium and terbium mine supply last year, a prolonged disruption would strain availability of feedstock supplies for magnet makers during what is typically a seasonally strong quarter. 

More than 90% of electric vehicles feature at least one permanent magnet motor and rising production from Myanmar and low prices have made it easy for automakers “to turn a blind eye to the environmental destruction and social upheaval that rare earth mining fuels in the country,” according to Adamas.

“Should the recent border seizure and expected capture of rare earth mines this week result in a disruption of rare earth concentrate flows to China from Myanmar, importers of Chinese rare earths and magnets may soon have to pay, literally and figuratively, for failing to support and secure alternative sources of supply in time.”

Latin America’s biggest economy holds 5% of the world’s uranium resources and only produces a tiny amount of the nuclear reactor fuel, according to the World Nuclear Association. Brazil’s resources rank eighth globally, well behind Australia, Kazakhstan and Canada. The last assessment of Brazilian reserves took place 40 years ago, but elevated uranium prices are reviving the nation’s ambitions to seek out new deposits.

Nuclear Industries of Brazil — or INB — is seeking to collaborate with global companies to carry out new research in regions known for their mineral potential. The state-owned company plans to call for bids from partners interested in exploring areas in Brazil’s northeast, midwest and south by year end.

“We aim to move forward 40 years in four,” INB President Adauto Seixas said in an interview. “We have already received visits from companies from Russia, India, Korea, France, Australia, the United States and China.”

Brazil’s push comes amid surging interest in uranium, with investors piling into a radioactive metal that underpins a global push to tap carbon-free energy in the form of nuclear power. Uranium prices this year peaked in early February and though they’ve since retreated, levels are still above the historical average.

The Brazilian initiative is called the Uranium and Associated Mineral Resources Prospecting and Mining Partnership Program — or Prouranio. Exploration will be in areas that hold other minerals including copper, gold and rare earth elements that occur alongside uranium. INB’s strategy includes mining already mapped areas with help from private firms.

Yet, Brazilian minerals research industry group ABPM argues that a partnership model doesn’t suit the private sector, which would want to operate independently. The group’s head, Luis Mauricio Azevedo, suggests that Brazil should open up uranium exploration and development — a move that could help boost global supplies.

“If we have the reserves we imagine, Brazil could be a storehouse of energy for the world,” he said.

Miners are already approaching INB to collaborate on developing potential uranium from its rare earth deposits. Australia’s OAR Resources signed a memorandum of understanding in August to determine the potential for some projects. Brazil produces 105 tons a year — enough to cover about a quarter of uranium the country uses to feed two nuclear reactors west of Rio de Janeiro.

Despite Brazil’s desire to go big in uranium, government bureaucracy may be a hurdle. Fertilizer producer Galvani partnered with INB to extract and process phosphate products and uranium concentrate more than a decade ago, yet the company is still waiting for permits to operate a project known as Santa Quiteria.

Galvani expects to get its first environmental license for the mine this year after Brazil’s nuclear regulator approved the location and authorities agreed to analyze the project’s environmental impacts, chief executive officer Marcelo Silvestre said. He said the operation, which could start by 2028, may produce 2,300 tons of uranium a year — enough to turn Brazil into an exporter.

Galvani expects to invest 2.5 billion reais ($438 million) in Santa Quiteria, according to the CEO, who also said the firm would consider bidding in future INB auctions.

INB is also seeking partners for production in the southeast mining area of Gandarela as well as northeast Brazil’s Lagoa Real, which would involve expanding its Caetite mine and concentration plant — the country’s only operational facility. INB plans to raise 66.7 billion reais through production partnerships over three decades.

(By Mariana Durao)

Average copper prices rose in the third quarter on signs of better demand in top consumer China, falling inventories and as the country unleashed wide-ranging stimulus measures to boost its flagging economy.

Freeport’s quarterly average realized price for copper was up 13.2% to $4.30 per pound, while the metal’s production fell 3.1% to 1.05 billion recoverable pounds in the quarter.

The company said it was seeing robust demand for power cables and building wire associated with electrical infrastructure and data centers in the United States.

“Both the growing sectors more than offset weakness in traditional demand sectors,” CEO Kathleen Quirk said on a post-earnings call.

Last week, Freeport halted copper cathode production at its Manyar smelter in Indonesia after a fire at a sulphuric acid unit at the site in East Java province, which was later extinguished.

Reuters reported last week that Freeport will postpone sales of refined copper from Indonesia until the second quarter of 2025 as the fire caused a further production delay, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter.

The company said on Tuesday that it expects repair costs for the Manyar smelter to be covered by insurance.

On an adjusted basis, Freeport earned 38 cents per share in the third quarter, compared with the average analyst estimate of 35 cents per share, according to data compiled by LSEG.

The company’s shares were up 1.1% at $48.45.

(By Tanay Dhumal and Ernest Scheyder; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta)

“I had suggested that critical mineral MoU (memorandum of understanding) to be converted to a critical mineral partnership and become a starting point to become an FTA (Free Trade Agreement),” Piyush Goyal told reporters at a press briefing in New Delhi.

Earlier this month, India and US signed an initial pact to cooperate on strengthening supply chains in the two countries for lithium, cobalt and other critical minerals used in electric vehicles and clean energy applications.

The MoU fell far short of a full critical minerals trade deal that would allow India to benefit from the $7,500 US electric vehicle tax credit.

Minerals-focused trade deals are one way that the US President Joe Biden’s administration hopes to open up access for trusted allies to a $7,500 per vehicle EV tax credit introduced in last year’s climate-focused Inflation Reduction Act.

(By Shivangi Acharya; Editing by Jason Neely)

Explorers and developers often overstate the certainty of mineral resource classifications based on inadequate data, Desharnais said at an event in Vancouver on Wednesday. The practice has in some instances led to unexpected analyst downgrades, soaring costs and debt, and the derailment of promising assets.

“That classification debt, unfortunately, needs to get paid,” he told about 430 conference participants from 21 countries at CIM’s first Mineral Resources & Mineral Reserves conference. “The CEO may be walking around with a 3-million-oz. resource estimate, but they haven’t earned that classification with sufficient drilling. When the debt comes due, it’s often through painful reclassifications and revisions.”

Decade of missteps

Several recent projects have demonstrated the high cost of classification debt.

Rubicon Resources’ catastrophic 91% downgrade in resource estimates in 2015 stands as one of the most glaring examples. After it began initial production at the F2 gold deposit on its Phoenix property in Ontario’s Red Lake district, the company found the deposit to be uneconomic, shuttering the operation. It had not completed a feasibility study for the high-grade project.

The size of the downgrade blindsided investors and stakeholders, and the company had to undergo a painful restructuring to survive. Rebranded as Battle North Gold, Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) bought it and its renamed Bateman project in 2021 for $343 million.

In 2018, Pretium Resources promoted the Brucejack gold project in northwestern British Columbia’s Golden Triangle, now owned by Newmont (NYSE: NEM, TSX: NGT, ASX: NEM, PNGX: NEM), as a high-grade gold deposit. Yet, the asset disappointed when gold production grades fell far below expectations.

The nuggety nature of the gold, with Brucejack’s steeply dipping quartz veins and erratic grade distribution, made it difficult to consistently meet production targets, forcing the company to push tonnage through the mill to compensate for lower-than-expected grades.

Aurora (2018), Rainy River (2019), and Gold Bar (2020) show how resource overestimation hurt Guyana Goldfields, New Gold (TSX: NGD; NYSE: NGD) and McEwen Mining (TSX: MUX; NYSE: MUX). They had to downgrade estimates mid-operation. This triggered mine plan revisions, soaring costs, production delays, and financial strain.

Grade versus geometric risk

Desharnais identifies two types of risk that contribute to resource misclassification: grade risk and geometric risk.

Grade risk reflects patchiness in ore quality, while geometric risk involves uncertainty about the size and shape of mineralized domains within the deposit.

Conditional simulations help assess grade risk, Desharnais said, but tools to quantify geometric risk are lacking.

Companies often overestimate deposit geometry without tighter drilling, leading to costly misjudgments.

“Sparse drilling gives us a simpler picture than reality,” he explained, adding that only closely spaced drilling can reveal the true complexity of orebodies.

Best practices

Mathieu Doucette, a senior geologist at ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT), talked about the difficulty of classifying resources at Canada’s largest iron mine, the Mont-Wright iron ore mine in Quebec, producing continuously since 1974. Outdated data can affect current resource estimates. He illustrated how mixing in fresh drill holes helps manage geological risk as part of a dynamic model essential to avoid misclassification.

“The first thing [a QP] will do is akin to lighting a torch,” he said. “But everything on the edges is dark, and you can’t really see it. Drill holes are our ability to try and get some information, but sparse data hides the full picture.”

David Machuca-Mory, a principal consultant at SRK Consulting, said fixed models are risky. Deposits can be more unpredictable than they seem. Adaptive methods help ensure estimates reflect reality, reducing the chance of costly surprises.

“Even with dense drilling, some areas remain highly uncertain,” Machuca-Mory said. “Confidence intervals are large, and relying solely on drill spacing doesn’t always guarantee accurate classification.”

Cognitive biases

Desharnais said that misclassification is not just a technical problem; human psychology plays a significant role.

Anchoring bias makes companies stick with initial estimates despite new data. Authority bias pressures geologists and consultants to confirm favourable results to please management or investors.

“The consulting firm wants the next contract,” Desharnais said. “The CEO has family and friends invested and needs good news. These biases create a system where classification debt builds up across projects, only to be paid through painful revisions later.”

Owning up

Desharnais argued for more conservative resource models and said benchmarking against operating mines would help set realistic expectations. He suggested that technical reports include histograms that show the distance between drill holes and classified resources, he added.

“It forces the QP or CP to look at what they’ve done and ask: Does this make sense?” he said. “Transparent reporting would help prevent overly aggressive classifications, ensuring companies earn their resource classifications with sufficient data.”

Such measures may slow development, but they could also reduce the prevalence of misclassified resources in the industry. Desharnais urged geologists to scrutinize each block of material above the cut-off grade.

“Over-promising today only delays the inevitable correction tomorrow,” he said.

“This is like the early days in Chile, the Escondida discoveries and so on,” he said at the Gold Forum Americas in Colorado Springs, referring to Pakistan’s untapped discovery potential.

Bristow said supply constraints for gold and copper and the strong demand are pushing prices higher, while both suffer from weak development pipelines. The company is expanding its Lumwana copper mine in Zambia and Reko Diq in Pakistan, both of which will add to its copper output while driving local economic development.

“Copper has no substitutes,” Bristow said. “It is as strategic as gold is precious, and we’re bringing new copper projects online just as the supply squeeze hits.”

Bristow also addressed the suspension of operations at Barrick’s Porgera gold mine in Papua New Guinea last month due to local clan violence. He reinforced the company’s commitment to making a positive social and environmental impact, especially in emerging markets.

Watch the final part of Bristow’s three-part interview with The Northern Miner’s western editor, Henry Lazenby.

“We need to maintain supply and demand balance,” Bahlil Lahadalia, minister for energy and mineral resources, said at a media briefing in Jakarta on Friday. “If demand is low and supply is abundant, prices will fall.”

Nickel smelters in the country responsible for more than half of world production are enduring a shortage of ore due to government licensing issues, driving up the premium that must be paid to secure the raw material. That’s forced many to import record quantities from the neighboring Philippines.

Still, benchmark nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange have struggled to recover substantially from multi-year lows earlier in 2024 due to weak demand for stainless steel, the biggest market for the metal. Bulls are hoping that fresh economic stimulus from China can boost consumption.

The issues with the Indonesian permits, known as RKABs, have persisted since the start of the year. French firm Eramet SA, which operates one of Indonesia’s biggest nickel mines, cut its guidance for external ore sales by 29% after the government declined to license a higher amount.

On Friday, Lahadalia said that if large foreign-owned miners were granted their full sales quotas, smaller miners would struggle to sell their product.

“Most of the big ones are foreign owned, if we give them full RKAB, where can the others sell their ore?” he said. “Smelters must also buy ore from other companies that have no processing plants, like small miners.”

(By Eddie Spence and Eko Listiyorini)

Read More: Indonesia looks to next phase for nickel industry as fixer-in-chief bows out

Misra’s comments follow the Indian government’s rejection of a similar proposal in March, as the miner’s largest minority shareholder was not convinced that such a move would boost shareholder value.

The government has also started road shows to sell its stake in the miner, Misra said.

“Hindustan Zinc believes in value creation through demerger and will continue pursuing this, disinvestment or no disinvestment, both ways,” Misra told Reuters in an interview.

Last year, the company said it planned to create separate entities for its zinc, lead, silver and recycling businesses to unlock “potential value”.

Separately, the company plans to foray into domestic critical minerals blocks, he said, adding that it has plans to bid for copper, lithium, gold, platinum and potash blocks.

Misra also said the company is inviting discussions with global mining contractors to start mine development as it aims to double its output to 2 million tons per annum, adding that the contract should be fixed by November.

“Right now we are seeing an average (investment) figure of $2 to $2.5 billion. But once you know the full width and breadth of the project, then we’ll have to go to board, take approval,” he said.

The company may look for some debt and equity funding as it goes for a 2 million ton expansion, chief financial officer Sandeep Modi said in an analyst call earlier in the day.

The company on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by gains in zinc prices.

Consolidated net profit rose about 35% from a year ago to 23.27 billion rupees (around $277 million) in the quarter ended Sept. 30, compared to analysts’ expectations of 22.51 billion rupees according to estimates compiled by LSEG.

Hindustan Zinc said its revenue from operations grew 21% to 80.04 billion rupees, also beating expectations for 79.99 billion rupees.

($1 = 84.0420 Indian rupees)

(By Sethuraman N R, Neha Arora and Manvi Pant; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Varun H K and Vijay Kishore)

All but one man.

After a decade at the heart of power, Luhut Panjaitan, the 77-year-old fixer who championed so many of outgoing President Joko Widodo’s key industrial policies, says he is ready to step aside. His departure from the political frontline, after serious illness last year, is not unexpected. But with no clear heir in view, it leaves a tricky gap for the incoming administration as it tackles the next stages of key existing policies, including efforts to limit raw material exports in favor of higher value goods or the energy transition — areas which cut perilously across fiefdoms.

A retired four-star general turned diplomat and businessman, Panjaitan, widely known as Luhut, has a low profile outside his home country. Inside, however, he’s been for years the go-to man who can woo investors and shuttle between ministries to cut through the bureaucracy that so often tangles Indonesia’s unwieldy cabinets. He’s pushed through everything from coronavirus controls to a landmark climate finance deal in 2022.

His most significant policy accomplishment has been what is known in Jakarta as “downstreaming”, or the idea of leveraging Indonesia’s mineral wealth to secure investment in industrial development. The concept was not new when Jokowi, as the president is known, came in — it simply had never been put into action. And not without good reason, given the limited evidence of success elsewhere, with other mineral-rich nations also struggling to push investors toward processing and even manufacturing.

Panjaitan’s move to ban raw nickel ore exports in 2020 did infuriate trading partners. But it also proved a radical step that ultimately brought billions of dollars of mostly Chinese funds into Indonesian processing, and helped turn the country into a dominant force in the market. Restrictions on unrefined copper and bauxite have followed.

The economic impact of the nickel move has been rapid and visible. Indonesia has built a multi-billion industry, created jobs and boosted exports — even if that has also come at a steep environmental and human cost, especially for islands like Sulawesi.

“It’s really difficult to find a close personality who can replace Luhut,” said Siwage Negara, a research fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, pointing to Panjaitan, whose most recent title is Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment, as a critical actor.

“The new government needs to find someone who can play Luhut’s role, if they are serious about downstreaming.”

The moment is a delicate one for the downstreaming campaign. Indonesia’s new government has said it will continue to pull the economy away from its dependence on raw materials and encourage the development of a manufacturing sector. Incoming President Prabowo Subianto wants to include other commodities such as sugar and palm oil, according to people familiar with the matter.

But he also wants to ensure existing bans are contributing financially, and his team has already commissioned McKinsey & Co. to provide a downstreaming review. (McKinsey did not reply to a request for comment.)

The ban on exports of bauxite, the ore used to make aluminum, may be first to be challenged. Shipments were stopped last year before enough refineries had been built, hitting local miners, curbing earnings from exports and prompting lawmaker protests. Jokowi and Panjaitan held firm.

Without the dominance Indonesia enjoys in nickel, however, it is not clear that other export restrictions will ever generate a similar boost. In the first nine months of this year, the metal accounted for more than 40% of downstreaming investment, according to official figures. While nickel processing has boomed, a full-scale electric-vehicle and battery sector remains a distant prospect.

“Prabowo is inheriting a very constrained budget,” said Eve Warburton at the Australian National University’s Indonesia Institute. “He may pivot if the policy is more difficult to implement in other sectors, and the government needs fast revenue.”

Panjaitan declined to be interviewed for this story.

Military clout

As a former army man, including with the elite special forces, Panjaitan’s pedigree resonated with the one-time officers who still hold sway in Indonesian politics and business. Prabowo himself was once under his command.

He is also wealthy, thanks to a coal and energy business set up after he left the forces and listed on the Jakarta stock exchange as PT TBS Energi Utama. Panjaitan has said he now owns approximately 9% of the firm, having divested most of his shares before coming into government. Still, a 2023 disclosure to Indonesia’s Corruption Eradication Commission put his personal net worth at 1.04 trillion rupiah ($65 million).

Key to his ascent has been his closeness to Jokowi, which dates back to a furniture-making venture they formed in 2009 while the outgoing president was mayor of a city in central Java. The two remained close, with Panjaitan stepping in to become Jokowi’s chief of staff after his election in 2014.

“Luhut has a lot of history working with Jokowi, he kind of represents the president,” said Putra Adhiguna, managing director at the Energy Shift Institute, adding Jokowi “delegated much of his decision-making to him.”

That relationship was leveraged to provide foreign investors with the confidence they needed to invest in nickel downstreaming and other ventures, according to those who met him. They knew Panjaitan had the president’s ear, and so spoke with authority. In a country where abrupt policy u-turns are not uncommon, his reassurance and straight-talking approach went far.

The exit also raises uncomfortable questions for another high-profile success, the Just Energy Transition Partnership, which is still the most significant climate finance deal signed to date and probably also the most ambitious, seeking to move Indonesia away from coal dependence. The agreement’s existence was itself a victory, but as Panjaitan departs, it remains largely on paper.

The new administration — assuming that climate deal remains a priority — will have to navigate institutional hold-ups, cut red tape and protectionist measures and campaign for continued disclosure. It will also have to continue to demand from wealthy partner nations more grants, concessional loans and straight-up investments into green energy generation and infrastructure, to clean up a system still heavily dependent on the dirtiest fossil fuel.

That may not be the direction of travel.

Of course, much depends on whether any replacement can be found for Panjaitan. Speculation has swirled around Prabowo’s brother and close adviser, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, who could step into a similar, perhaps backstage, position.

But even then the role is a daunting one. The downstreaming campaign in particular only becomes tougher as Indonesia tries to leverage more commodities where it is nowhere near as dominant as it is in nickel — while still hoping to go beyond processing to the next stage of development, into manufacturing and on to become a major player in EVs.

“We have only reached the first leg of downstreaming,” said Adhiguna. “The question is whether Indonesia can reach the second.”

(By Eddie Spence)

The Chinese cellmaking giant, through its subsidiary CBL International Development, formed the venture with government-owned Indonesia Battery Corporation, the companies said in a statement. The project in Karawang, West Java, aims to scale up battery production to 15 gigawatts a year.

The move marks an important step toward Indonesia’s goal to build out a complete supply chain for electric vehicles, a key aim launched by outgoing President Joko Widodo. The government has looked to leverage its vast production of nickel, a key ingredient for some batteries, to draw in foreign investors to the EV sector.

Earlier this year Hyundai Motor Group and LG Energy Solution Ltd. opened the first-ever battery cell plant in the country, while China’s BTR New Material Group launched an anode material plant.

(By Eddie Spence)

The London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price, indexed to Platts benchmark Australian alumina assessment, closed Wednesday at $633.35 per metric ton, lifting the ratio to the aluminum price to almost 25%.

The alumina-aluminum ratio was just 15% at the start of 2024, when alumina was priced at $350 per ton.

A series of supply disruptions have driven the alumina price higher this year. The trigger for the latest price jump was news of export problems in Guinea, the major import source of bauxite for China’s alumina refineries.

The physical alumina market is undeniably tight but the explosive nature of the price action also signals a speculative frenzy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE).

Shanghai boom

Nearly 25 million tons were transacted on the ShFE alumina contract on Wednesday, a record daily high and equivalent to almost a fifth of global annual production.

Open interest has also soared to life-of-contract highs as investors have bought into a steadily rising market.

The exchange adjusted both trading limits and margins on Thursday, imposing a percentage point premium on speculative positions relative to industrial hedge positions.

This is standard operating procedure for China’s exchanges in the face of speculative surges such as that currently washing into the Shanghai alumina market.

This sort of futures price volatility is a new phenomenon for the alumina market.

Both the LME and its US peer CME Group offer alumina contracts but neither is liquid. The explosive growth in the Shanghai contract, by contrast, has changed the dynamic between paper and physical markets since trading began in June last year.

This is the second bout of turbulence on the Shanghai market after a massive price spike in January, also due to concerns about Guinean bauxite supply.

All eyes on Guinea

The price sensitivity to events in Guinea highlights how dependent China’s alumina refineries have become on West African bauxite.

China’s bauxite mining sector has been hit by multiple waves of environmental inspections, limiting domestic supply and encouraging more alumina refineries to look overseas for their raw material.

Imports of Indonesian bauxite stopped early 2023 after the Indonesian government banned exports in a drive to force its miners downstream into refining and smelting.

Guinea has fast emerged as China’s primary bauxite supplier. Imports doubled between 2000 and 2023 to almost 100 million tons and were up by another 13% in the first eight months of this year.

The January alumina panic was down to an explosion at an oil terminal in the Guinean port of Conakry. This time around it’s news that a local subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium has had its bauxite exports suspended by customs.

Although wildly exaggerated, the price reaction in Shanghai is logical, given the lack of alternative bauxite supply and tighter conditions in the alumina market itself.

Supply hits

Alumina supply has taken multiple hits this year.

US producer Alcoa announced in January the permanent closure of its Kwinana refinery in Australia. The ramp-down was scheduled to be completed by the third quarter.

In May Rio Tinto declared force majeure on deliveries from its refineries in Queensland due to restricted gas capacity levels.

Century Aluminum’s operations in Jamaica were briefly interrupted by Hurricane Beryl in September and South32 has flagged concerns about its Australian operations due to conditions on its operating licence required by environmental regulators.

Meanwhile, Chinese demand for alumina has been growing strongly as the country’s smelters have benefited from improved power supply, particularly in the hydro-rich province of Yunnan.

National aluminum output rose by 4.4% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2024 with annualized run-rates increasing by almost 1.5 million tons since December.

That said, China at a national level doesn’t seem to be physically short of alumina since it continues to export significant quantities to Russia.

Indeed, exports to Russia surged by 41% year-on-year to 1.0 million tons in January-April, turning China from net importer to net exporter of the intermediate product.

Future(s) disruption

But physical availability is not the same as exchange availability.

ShFE alumina stocks have dropped by more than half since June to 103,416 tons. The result is time-spread tightness with the premium for cash relative to forward contracts flaring wider this week.

Short-position holders’ ability to deliver physical material will depend on how much alumina is located at ShFE’s four delivery points in the provinces of Shandong, Henan, Gansu and Xinjiang.

Much also hangs on how serious the threat of disruption to Guinean bauxite shipments is. The January scare quickly subsided and there’s no indication the latest incident is the harbinger of a national change of policy around exports.

What has changed, however, is the reaction time to such events.

Before the arrival of the Shanghai futures contract, spot alumina was priced by physical cargo transactions, which can be few and far between in a market dominated by yearly supply contracts.

Now a headline from Guinea can move the futures price in seconds, creating a disconnect between paper and physical markets.

This added volatility is going to make the previously tranquil alumina market a much more turbulent place.

It’s also going to make smelter costs much more unpredictable with a potential knock-on impact on the price of aluminum itself.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

CSN announced the deal to sell up to 11% of CSN Mineracao to Itochu early on Wednesday, but did not immediately provide financial details. The price was revealed later in a fresh filing at the request of Brazil’s securities commission.

According to the steelmaker, the price agreed with Itochu for the deal was 7.50 reais per share, above CSN Mineracao’s Tuesday’s closing of 5.95 reais per share.

CSN added that “the form of payment, any adjustments and other conditions of the deal are still being negotiated and have not been defined by the parties.”

(By Alberto Alerigi Jr.; Editing by Mark Potter)

Eramet announced the lowered forecasts late on Tuesday, citing a downturn in the manganese market and a smaller-than-expected permit allowance in Indonesia.

The Moanda mine in Gabon and the Weda Bay mine in Indonesia have driven Eramet’s growth, as its historic nickel operation in New Caledonia has been drained by losses and social unrest.

Analysts at ODDO BHF called the news “another setback” for Eramet, following its July reduction of 2024 targets for ore output in Gabon and Indonesia, while also trimming short-term targets for a new lithium mine in Argentina.

Eramet attributed the deterioration in the manganese market to falling Chinese output of carbon steel — which requires manganese in its production — and an influx of low-grade ore after a price surge earlier this year.

The company’s full-year sales volumes of high-grade manganese ore are estimated to be between 6.0 and 6.5 million tonnes in 2024, of which approximately 700,000 tonnes are internal sales.

As a result, Eramet has decided to suspend ore production at the Moanda mine for a minimum of three weeks. According to the company, sales and shipments will continue during this period.

The 2024 volume target for produced and transported manganese ore was revised to between 6.5 and 7.0 million tonnes, down from the previous 7.0 to 7.5 million tonnes.

In Indonesia, the mines ministry this week issued PT Weda Bay Nickel, Eramet’s joint venture with Chinese group Tsingshan, a revised allowance of 32 million wet tonnes annually for 2024-2026, including 3 million for internal sales, according to Eramet.

As a result, the operation’s 2024 volume target for external marketable nickel ore has been revised to 29 million wet tonnes, down from the previous 40 to 42 million tonnes. Eramet noted that the impact on the operation’s 2024 financial performance is expected to be largely offset by higher ore premiums due to domestic supply restrictions.

(With files from Reuters)

Long production delays at the new Manyar smelter, with an output capacity of 480,000 metric tons of copper cathode a year, are likely to narrow an expected 2025 surplus of the metal and support prices.

Freeport said earlier on Tuesday it is investigating the cause of the fire at a sulphuric acid unit at Freeport’s Manyar site, located in East Java province, which was extinguished late on Monday.

Its subsidiary running the plant, PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) is conducting damage assessments and root cause evaluations, a spokesperson told Reuters.

“The impact of this event on our planned ramp-up to full production also will be assessed,” the company said.

The $3.7 billion Manyar copper smelter was completed in June and started output in September. However, production was delayed until November due to water and steam leakage during an initial test period, Reuters reported earlier this month.

The sources also said Freeport has been in talks with the Indonesian government to extend its export licence for copper concentrates which expires at the end of 2024 into the first quarter of next year.

A slow ramp-up at Manyar could mean lower consumption of copper concentrate feedstock and a potential release of output mined from its flagship Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world’s second biggest copper-gold mine, to an undersupplied market.

Indonesia’s government is trying to discourage export of copper ores and concentrates. It wants miners to smelt metal locally to add value and increase state revenues.

(By Julian Luk; Editing by Pratima Desai and Kirsten Donovan)

The company said in a securities filing that its board of directors has approved Itochu’s non-binding offer, but that the conclusion of a potential transaction still depends on additional corporate and antitrust green light.

(By Alberto Alerigi Jr.; Editing by Gabriel Araujo)

With the clean energy transition well underway and demand for critical minerals skyrocketing, mining companies are facing an astounding $1 trillion funding gap as tough financing and economic conditions make it more difficult to deliver the metals needed. 

EY published a recent report on the top risks and opportunities for the mining industry – topping the list: access to capital. Last year access to capital came in number 2 in EY’s report, after environmental social and governance (ESG).  

“Raising capital for new mines and raising capital to expand existing mines in a brownfield environment, or even access to capital to streamline portfolios, has become front and center for mining executives,” Theo Yameogo, EY’s Mining and metals Leader for the Americas and Canada, said in an interview.  

Yameogo pointed out that to help address this gap, pension funds need to become bigger players in the mining sector, because there will be no energy transition without metals and minerals.  

Watch the full interview with MINING.com’s Devan Murugan:  

Amnesty International points out that human rights risks in supply chains include potentially leaving communities exposed to exploitation, health risks and environmental harm caused by the rapid expansion of mines required for the metals used in batteries.

In the new report, Recharge for Rights: Ranking the Human Rights Due Diligence Reporting of Leading Electric Vehicle Makers, Amnesty International uses criteria based on international standards to comprehensively assess human rights due diligence policies and self-reported practices of 13 major EV manufacturers, issuing each one with a scorecard.

The companies were assessed against criteria based on internationally recognized frameworks, including the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights (UNGPs), the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises, and the OECD Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Business Conduct.

Mixed scores across the board

Amnesty’s scorecard, which is marked out of 90, assesses companies’ performance on criteria including commitment to human rights policies, risk identification process, supply chain mapping and reporting, and remediation.

The scorecard breaks down whether these car brands are meeting their human rights responsibilities and highlights which of them are failing to show that they are addressing human rights concerns.

Companies assessed are headquartered in China (BYD, Geely Auto), France (Renault), Germany (BMW, Mercedes-Benz, VW Group), Japan (Mitsubishi, Nissan), Netherlands (Stellantis), South Korea (Hyundai) and the United States (Ford, General Motors, Tesla).

None of the companies scored higher than 51 on Amnesty International’s human rights due diligence assessment, it said.

Mercedes-Benz ranked the highest (51) Tesla came in second (49) and Stellantis third (42) . BYD scored the lowest, (11), followed by Mitsubishi (13) and Hyundai (21).

Lacking transparency

In terms of supply chain mapping disclosures, BYD, Geely Auto, Hyundai, General Motors and Mitsubishi Motors scored the lowest, failing to provide detailed information about their supply chains, Amnesty International said.

The report revealed BYD does not disclose smelter, refiner, or mine site names. Geely Auto provided only general supplier locations without specifying mineral extraction sites.

Hyundai and Mitsubishi Motors demonstrated a similar lack of transparency, Amnesty International said, with no evidence of comprehensive supply chain mapping or mine site identification for cobalt, copper, lithium and nickel, making it difficult for stakeholders to verify how these operations affect nearby communities.

As global demand for battery minerals soars, the report calls for car makers to identify and mitigate human rights risks and as well as risks of abuse of Indigenous Peoples’ rights in countries where minerals are extracted such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Philippines.

“The huge rise in demand for the metals needed to make electric vehicle batteries is putting immense pressures on mining-affected communities,” Amnesty International’s Secretary General, Agnès Callamard, said in a media statement.

“The human rights abuses tied to the extraction of energy transition minerals are alarming and pervasive and the industry’s response is sorely lacking. Communities are suffering from forced evictions, health issues caused by pollution and difficulties accessing water,” Callamard said.

“As demand for electric vehicles increases, manufacturers must ensure people’s human rights are respected.”

Read the full report here.

The Moanda mine in Gabon and the Weda Bay mine in Indonesia are each the world’s biggest for their respective minerals, and have driven Eramet’s growth as its historic nickel operation in New Caledonia has been drained by losses and social unrest.

Eramet had raised its full-year core profit guidance in July on a jump in manganese prices.

But the group said in a statement that the manganese market had deteriorated due to a strong decline in Chinese output of carbon steel – the main use for manganese – and an influx of low-grade manganese following the rise in prices earlier this year.

Eramet’s Comilog subsidiary is set to suspend ore production at the Moanda mine for a minimum period of three weeks, with the duration to be revised according to market activity, the group said.

The 2024 target for produced and transported manganese ore from Moanda is now between 6.5 million and 7.0 million metric tons, compared with 7.0 million to 7.5 million previously, it said.

In Indonesia, the country’s mines ministry this week issued PT Weda Bay Nickel, Eramet’s joint venture with Chinese group Tsingshan, with a revised allowance of 32 million wet tons annually for 2024-2026, including 3 million for internal sales, Eramet said.

As a result the operation’s 2024 volume target for external marketable nickel ore has been revised to 29 million wet tons from 40 million to 42 million previously, Eramet said.

The impact on the operation’s 2024 financial performance is expected to be largely offset by higher ore premiums resulting from restrictions to domestic supply, Eramet added.

The French group will publish a third-quarter sales update on Oct. 24.

(By Sudip Kar-Gupta; Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Aurora Ellis)

In a break to that form, reserve managers from the central banks of Mexico, Mongolia and Czech Republic on Monday sang the praises of bigger holdings. The comments provided unique insight into how they are viewing bullion, with the officials saying that gold as a percentage of their country’s reserves is more likely to increase in the years ahead amid a confluence of growing geopolitical tensions and lower interest rates.

“Given the context that we are facing right now — lower rates, your political tension, US election, a lot of uncertainty — maybe the share of gold in our portfolios could be increasing as well,” said Joaquín Tapia, director of international reserves at Banco de México.

Enkhjin Atarbaatar of Mongolia and Marek Sestak of Czech Republic echoed Tapia’s remarks. The three officials spoke together on a panel in Miami at an annual industry conference held by the London Bullion Market Association.

“In Mongolia’s case, I expect that the reserves will continue to grow, and I also expect that the share of gold in our reserves will likely increase in the future,” said Atarbaatar, director general of the financial markets department at the Centrl Bank of Mongolia.

Sestak, deputy executive director of the risk-management department at the Czech National Bank, responded: “I completely agree as well.”

Gold has surged more than 25% so far in 2024, outperforming US equities and bonds as it keeps climbing to fresh all-time highs. The rally was partly helped by unprecedented levels of bullion purchases by central banks as reserve managers seek safety in the precious metal to safeguard their nation’s wealth against geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

The average central bank has 15% of their foreign exchange reserves in precious metals at market valuations, according to Terrence Keeley, chief executive at Impact Evaluation Lab. Keeley is a former senior BlackRock executive, responsible for overseeing the relationships and services that the firm provided to central banks and sovereign wealth funds.

(By Yvonne Yue Li)

The fire occurred at a sulphuric acid unit at the Manyar site, located in East Java province, and was extinguished late on Monday, the company said in statement on Tuesday, adding it was still looking into the cause.

“Copper cathode production will exhaust the sulfuric gas that must be captured by this plant. With the occurrence of the fire, we will halt the production process,” Freeport Indonesia chief executive Tony Wenas said.

Tony said the length of the production halt would depend on an investigation of the smelter fire and the company would review its production process.

Jakarta will review the company’s plan to ramp up production to ensure safety, Indonesia investment minister Rosan Roslani told a press conference.

The $3.7 billion copper smelter was completed in June and started output in September. However, production was delayed until November due to water and steam leakage during an initial test period.

The plant was expected to reach full capacity in January 2025 but Freeport will re-evaluate plans to ramp up production following the fire, it said in the statement.

The smelter has an annual input capacity of 1.7 million metric tons of copper concentrate, which could produce around 900,000 tons of copper cathode, 50 tons of gold and 210 tons of silver a year.

There were no casualties or injuries after the incident at the smelter, the CEO said.

(By Bernadette Christina and Stefanno Sulaiman; Editing by John Mair and Christian Schmollinger)

India and the UAE signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2022 after 88 days of negotiations. The agreement has become a template for similar trade pacts the UAE has since signed with many other nations.

The two countries held a meeting of the Joint Committee under CEPA on Monday, where officials discussed growth in bilateral trade.

India raised the issue of higher imports of silver products, platinum alloy and dry dates and “urged UAE to verify compliance to the rules of origin norms and ensure that the rules are not circumvented,” New Delhi said in a statement.

UAE has agreed to examine India’s concerns, it added.

Reuters reported last month that Indian and Emirati officials were expected to review their trade agreement amid concerns raised by Indian industry over a sharp increase in imports of precious metals from UAE.

(By Tanvi Mehta and Shivangi Acharya; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

The company has proposed to the Department of Environment and Natural Resources a five-year spending plan that includes capital expenditures, production costs, and operating expense, it told the Philippine Stock Exchange on Monday, confirming news reports.

Semirara’s expansion plan comes as the Philippines continues to rely on coal for its power needs even as it has mapped out plans to boost the share of renewables in its energy mix. Nations around the world are advancing the phaseout of coal-fired power capacity while banks have pledged to stop funding coal projects to curb the impact of climate change.

Semirara has mining operations in the province of Antique in central Philippines. Its coal revenue fell by 20% to 23.9 billion pesos in the first half as prices fell. The company exports coal to China, South Korea and Brunei.

(By Cliff Venzon)

The company will assess the damage and evaluate the cause of the incident once the area is safe to enter, spokesperson Katri Krisnati said.

The $3.7 billion copper smelter was completed in June and had been expected to produce a first batch of output in September, however due to water and steam leakage during an initial test period, production has been delayed until November, Reuters reported last month.

The smelter has annual input capacity of 1.7 million metric tons of copper concentrate, which could produce around 900,000 tons of copper cathode, 50 tons of gold and 210 tons of silver a year.

“The fire that occurred Monday October 14 at around 1745 (GMT+7) in the sulphuric acid unit of the Freeport Indonesia smelter in the Gresik Special Economic Zone has now been successfully controlled,” Katri said.

(By Bernadette Christina and Ananda Teresia; Editing by Toby Chopra and Alison Williams)

They received acceptances for just over 1.1 million shares of Korea Zinc, equivalent to 5.34% of outstanding shares, and plan to secure all the shares on Thursday as previously announced, Young Poong said.

Korea Zinc has made its own tender offer to purchase shares in the company as it seeks to fend off what it called a “hostile” takeover attempt.

MBK said the additional shares would enable it to have enough voting rights to push ahead with their proposals at shareholders’ meetings.

“We believe today will be recorded as a meaningful milestone for Korea’s capital market,” MBK said in a statement, adding that it marked the first step to enhancing corporate value by improving corporate governance.

Korea Zinc has been in a bitter battle for control of the $12 billion zinc empire with the co-founding Chang family, whose electronics conglomerate Young Poong made an initial joint offer with MBK in September.

Investors noted that MBK and Young Poong together are set to become the biggest shareholder of Korea Zinc once the results of the tender offer are finalized if Korea Zinc manages to proceed with its share buyback agenda as planned, which could pave the way for MBK and Young Poong to take the control of Korea Zinc’s management.

The competing sides in combination with their likely supporters had held about a one-third stake in Korea Zinc before the tender offers, according to calculations by Meritz Securities.

“We see that the result fell short of the target set by the other party. We will respond accordingly in the future. We ask for shareholders’ continued support and encouragement,” Korea Zinc said in a statement.

MBK and South Korea’s Young Poong had conducted a tender offer to purchase up to 14.6% of Korea Zinc shares, for an estimated price tag of up to 2.5 trillion won ($1.85 billion) with a tender price set at 830,000 won per share.

Last week, Korea Zinc raised the purchase price and size of its tender offer by 7% to 890,000 won each and increased the number of shares it plans to acquire to up to 20% to 4,140,657 shares alongside Bain Capital, valuing the tender offer at 3.6 trillion won. The offer closes on Oct. 23.

(By Heekyong Yang and Jack Kim; Editing by Ed Davies and Bernadette Baum)

At the end of the third quarter of 2024, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners had a combined market capitalization of $1.51 trillion, up just under $76 billion from end-June, largely on the back of gold and royalty stocks.

The total stock market valuation of the world’s biggest mining companies is up a fairly modest 8% year to end-September and despite the good run is still $240 billion below the peak hit in the second quarter of 2022.  

Ranks, value of gold stocks swell

The value of precious metals and royalty companies climbed by a combined $42 billion, or 16% during the quarter and gold counters dominate the best performing ranks. 

Were it not for the limited tradability of stock in Russia’s Polyus, which lost some ground over the last three months despite gold’s stellar performance, bullion’s effect on the Top 50 would have been even more pronounced. 

Canada’s Alamos Gold joins the top 50 for the first time with a more than 31% jump in value, lifting it six places to number 48 with a valuation of $8.2 billion at the end of the quarter while the second quarter’s newcomer Pan American Silver (following its absorption of Yamana Gold) hangs on at no 50.

Alamos Gold last month raised its production guidance by over 20% for 2025-2026 with the inclusion of the Magino mine and its integration with its Island Gold operation in Ontario. The Toronto- based miner has long term ambitions to grow its production base to 900,000 ounces per year.

Uzbekistan is readying an IPO for Navoi Mining and Metallurgy Combinat – the world’s fourth largest gold mining company and significant uranium producer in 2025. NMMC debuted a $1 billion bond offering last week, marking the first global debt market issuance from a gold mining company since June 2023.

Navoi should easily join the ranks of gold producers in the top 50 thanks to ownership of the world’s largest gold mine, Muruntau, and annual production of 2.9 million ounces at grades and per ounce extraction costs the envy of the sector.  

The Muruntau open pit mine southwest of the Kyzylkum desert, originally developed during the Soviet era as a source of uranium, has estimated reserves of around 130 million ounces of gold. 

Goldilocks copper

Copper specialists, and those with fat gold credits, have gained a combined 36% year to date as the copper price continues to flirt with the $10,000 a tonne level, but momentum slowed dramatically during Q3 with the group contributing only $7.2 billion in added market worth during the quarter. 

Amman Mineral’s fierce rally also came to an abrupt halt during the quarter with the counter losing 18% over the three months and coming close to falling out of the top 10.

Investors who bought Amman, owner of the world’s third largest mine worldwide in terms of copper equivalent, at the IPO price in Jakarta a year ago, are still enjoying 400% gains since then, however. 

Southern Copper’s position as the world’s third most valuable mining stock seems entrenched after a double digit percentage gain in Q3 compared to a much more sedate performance by Freeport-McMoRan, which now has to gain a full $20 billion in market cap to haul in its Mexico City-based rival.

Light on lithium 

Rio Tinto’s vote of confidence in the long term future of the lithium sector (and its own ability to make M&A work) dominated the news at the start of the December-quarter but it’s worth noting that Arcadium’s more than 90% surge since the all-cash offer was first announced is not enough for the stock to enter the rankings.

Three lithium counters exited the rankings this year, Australia’s Pilbara Minerals and Mineral Resources and China’s Tianqi Lithium as the deep slump in prices for the battery metal continues to take its toll.  

Last quarter’s no 50, Ganfeng Lithium jumps six places after being swept up in the stimulus-induced rally on Chinese stock markets at the end of the quarter, while Tianqi’s performance so far in October should see it reenter the Top 50 in due course. 

Ganfeng was barely holding on at position 50 at end-June and with gold price momentum continuing and two gold mining companies waiting in the winds – Yintai and Alamos – only three lithium counters in the top 50 may be a reality for some time to come. 

After peaking in the second quarter of 2022 with a combined value of nearly $120 billion, the remaining lithium stocks’ market value has now shrunk to $34 billion.  

Iron ore ground down

Despite a modest improvement during the quarter, the mining industry’s traditional big 5 – BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Vale and Anglo American – remain in the red for 2024, losing $24 billion since the start of the year. 

The big 5 diversifieds now make up 29% of the total index, down from a height of 38% at the end of 2022.  

Iron ore’s less than rosy outlook – the late boost China’s recent stimulus package notwithstanding – saw Fortescue once again feature on the biggest losers list and Cleveland Cliffs exit the ranking with the US iron ore miner’s 37% decline this year exacerbated by its inability to capitalize on the blocking of the Nippon-US Steel tie up. 

Iron ore’s representation in the top 50 have diminished in the last couple of years – Brazil’s CSN Mineração dropped out during Q1 this year while Anglo-controlled and separately-listed Kumba Iron Ore has lost touch with the top tier after a 40% fall year to date.

Click on image for full size table.

NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, stock exchange data, company reports. Share data from primary-listed exchange at close Oct 4, 2024 close of trading converted to US$ where applicable. Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.  

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining (the gold and uranium giant may list later this year), Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like China’s CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining will continue to represent a small portion of its valuation.  

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.

Indian steel producers are collectively the world’s second largest, and therefore will likely have a critical role in achieving the country’s target of net zero by 2070. With the increasing commissioning of blast furnaces in India with decades of life ahead of them, supporting longer-term decarbonization routes is essential.

Under a joint study agreement agreement, JSW and BHP will assess the feasibility of Carbon Clean’s CycloneCC modular technology to capture up to 100,000 tonnes per year of CO2 emissions – the largest scale CycloneCC deployment to date in steelmaking.

Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies like CycloneCC are anticipated to be a critical abatement to support a near zero CO2 emissions intensity for this process route, as well as potentially for other hard-to-abate industrial sectors.

However, there are several challenges with the adoption of carbon capture technology in the steel industry, including capital expenditure and ongoing operating costs, as well as the integration of new equipment into an existing site.

The CycloneCC rotating packed bed (RPB) technology, in combination with Carbon Clean’s proprietary APBS-CDRMax solvent, aims to address these challenges through reducing total installed cost and the unit footprint by up to 50%, and equipment that is ten times smaller in size than conventional carbon capture technologies.

This project, says BHP, is an important step towards supporting the scale-up of carbon capture, including understanding the potential performance, costs and carbon abatement outcomes. It is anticipated that the joint studies will be completed during 2026, at which time the parties will consider installing CycloneCC at JSW’s Vijayanagar site in Karnataka, India.

Utilization – the ‘U’ in CCUS – is a key component of the project. If the project is successful, JSW Steel intends to liquefy captured CO2 so that it can be sold locally, it adds.

“We are actively studying multiple pathways for steel decarbonization, including through use of hydrogen and renewable power, but we recognize that the blast furnace route will likely remain a pathway for the production of steel, particularly within India,” BHP’s chief commercial officer Rag Udd said in a statement.

“We believe CCUS could be a financially viable decarbonization lever which would be crucial to achieve near zero emissions in the steel sector and this collaboration for a scale-up application would help pave the way forward,” said Jayant Acharya, joint managing director and CEO of JSW Steel.

Acharya also noted that JSW, as India’s leading private sector steel company, has already achieved a reduction of carbon emissions intensity by 30% against its 2005 baseline, and is aiming to further reduce its steelmaking intensity to 1.95 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of steel by 2030 and achieving net neutral carbon emissions by 2050.