Nations Royalty Corp. (CVE: NRC) is 77% Indigenous owned and its unique approach has attracted the backing renowned mining entrepreneur Frank Guistra.

The company enables Indigenous groups to keep ownership of royalty assets while receiving early economic benefits from mining projects on their land.

Royalties are not negotiated directly with mining companies, but through partnership with First Nations and Indigenous groups that have existing royalties. 

Nations Royalty chief investment officer Derrick Pattenden says the sharing of royalties between Indigenous groups has benefits beyond increased diversification.

Watch the full interview with MINING.com’s Devan Murugan:

• Stockpiling. The Trump Administration supported and the Harris campaign supports increased mineral stockpiling. According to the Department of Defense, the National Defense Stockpile (NDS), as of March 2023, only had inventories to cover 6 percent of the US military’s and essential civilian demand’s estimated material shortfalls in a hypothetical one-year conflict with China, followed by a three-year recovery. The president could tap the NDS Transaction Fund for mineral stockpiling, as well as the Defense Production Act (DPA) fund. The Eisenhower Administration used DPA funds for mineral stockpiling during the Cold War, and the president still has this authority (50 USC §4533). Importantly, the next administration’s Department of Defense should prioritize stockpiling minerals extracted and processed in the United States.

• Subsidies. The Trump Administration supported and the Harris campaign supports subsidies for critical mineral projects. The Trump Administration deemed critical mineral processing projects eligible for direct loans under the Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing (ATVM) program, and the Biden-Harris Administration has loaned to such projects. The next administration’s Department of Energy could also deem mining projects eligible under the ATVM program by issuing a draft rule that adds “mining” to 10 CFR 611.2 “Eligible Project” (3). To specifically lower costs for US mineral processing facilities, the next administration’s Internal Revenue Service could propose new regulations extending the production costs covered by the Section 45X 10-percent production tax credit to feedstock acquisition, as has been urged by several organizations and mining companies.

• Procurement. Both the Trump and Biden-Harris administrations support increased domestic content requirements for government procurement. Under the authority of Executive Order 14005, the next administration’s Federal Acquisition Regulatory Council could issue a draft rule that adds a new part to the Federal Acquisition Regulations, requiring that acquisitions of specified clean energy technologies contain a certain threshold percentage of minerals extracted in the United States. For example, the draft rule could ultimately require that the General Services Administration—the federal government’s main source for procuring non-tactical vehicles—only acquire electric vehicles with batteries containing a high percentage of chemicals derived from US-extracted minerals. The next administration’s US Postal Service could adopt a similar content requirement in its Supplying Principles and Practices for electric vehicle acquisitions.

• Tariffs. Trump has pledged significant tariff increases, while the Biden-Harris Administration increased tariffs on several minerals imported from China. Domestic mineral projects like South32’s Hermosa manganese-zinc project support such trade protections to reduce US reliance on foreign minerals. The next president could (likely) impose tariffs on any mineral imports immediately under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The only prerequisite is a national emergency declaration, like the now-expired critical minerals executive order. If concerned about the legality of levying tariffs under IEEPA, the president could also direct the secretary of commerce to open a Section 232 investigation into mineral imports, although the tariff imposition would likely take several months to occur.

• Permitting. Both Trump and Harris support expedited permitting for building major projects. Previously, most US mining projects required Clean Water Act section 404 permits—which trigger the National Environmental Policy Act—but the Supreme Court’s decision in Sackett v. Environmental Protection Agency (2023) circumscribed the areas requiring these permits, possibly lowering the permitting requirements for many mine projects. Determining whether a project requires a section 404 permit, however, can take up to one year based on the district. To expedite this process, the next administration’s US Army Corps of Engineers could issue a regulatory guidance letter directing district engineers to prioritize the review of approved jurisdictional determinations for sites of potential mining projects.

In short, the next president’s administration has significant unilateral authority to support US mining of critical minerals. First, it could increase mineral stockpiling by tapping both the NDS Transaction Fund and DPA fund for mineral acquisitions.

The next administration could also expand existing subsidies—like the ATVM direct loan program—to mining projects. For government acquisitions of clean energy technologies, it could set content requirements for US-extracted minerals.

The next administration could, additionally, impose tariffs on mineral imports of their choosing by issuing a national emergency declaration concerning mineral imports under IEEPA.

Lastly, it could expedite permitting by prioritizing jurisdictional determinations for sites of potential mining projects. On January 20, 2025, the next US president could—and should—take these actions to bolster US mining of critical minerals.

** Gregory Wischer is the founder of Dei Gratia Minerals, a critical minerals consulting firm.

With the clean energy transition well underway and demand for critical minerals skyrocketing, mining companies are facing an astounding $1 trillion funding gap as tough financing and economic conditions make it more difficult to deliver the metals needed. 

EY published a recent report on the top risks and opportunities for the mining industry – topping the list: access to capital. Last year access to capital came in number 2 in EY’s report, after environmental social and governance (ESG).  

“Raising capital for new mines and raising capital to expand existing mines in a brownfield environment, or even access to capital to streamline portfolios, has become front and center for mining executives,” Theo Yameogo, EY’s Mining and metals Leader for the Americas and Canada, said in an interview.  

Yameogo pointed out that to help address this gap, pension funds need to become bigger players in the mining sector, because there will be no energy transition without metals and minerals.  

Watch the full interview with MINING.com’s Devan Murugan:  

EarthLabs Expeditions is an ‘off-the-beaten-path’ epic journey into the unknown, where the adventure is unscripted, discovery has no limits, and the truth is raw, real, and riveting. 

The latest episode visits West Red Lake Gold Mines (TSXV: WRLG) (OTCQB: WRLGF), offering an unfiltered and behind-the-scenes look at their modern take on an historic gold project and how it fits into the broader world of mineral exploration and mining. 

West Red Lake Gold recently acquired the Madsen Mine and several other known and prospective resources in the prolific Red Lake Gold District of Ontario, Canada. 

The district is renowned for its rich gold deposits, having produced over 30 million ounces of high-grade gold. Backed by a seasoned management team and strategic investors including Frank Giustra, the company is pushing to restart the Madsen mine on solid footing while also exploring new targets with new potential.  

Join host Jonathan Brazeau on a tour to learn about the work underway to accurately define the resource and structure of the deposit, improve and optimize the existing infrastructure, and restart the historic mine.  

Watch the full video:

The episode linked is a paid advertisement for West Red Lake Gold to enhance public awareness of West Red Lake Gold, its products, its industry and as a potential investment opportunity.

At the end of the third quarter of 2024, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners had a combined market capitalization of $1.51 trillion, up just under $76 billion from end-June, largely on the back of gold and royalty stocks.

The total stock market valuation of the world’s biggest mining companies is up a fairly modest 8% year to end-September and despite the good run is still $240 billion below the peak hit in the second quarter of 2022.  

Ranks, value of gold stocks swell

The value of precious metals and royalty companies climbed by a combined $42 billion or 16% during the quarter and gold counters dominate the best performing ranks. 

Were it not for the limited tradability of stock in Russia’s Polyus, which lost some ground over the three months despite gold’s stellar performance, bullion’s effect on the Top 50 would have been even more pronounced. 

Canada’s Alamos Gold joins the top 50 for the first time with a  more than 31% jump in value lifting it six places to number 48 with a valuation of $8.2 billion at the end of the quarter while the second quarter’s newcomer Pan American Silver (following its absorption of Yamana Gold) hangs on at no 50.

Alamos Gold last month raised its production guidance by over 20% for 2025-2026 with the inclusion of the Magino mine and its integration with its Island Gold operation in Ontario. The Toronto based miner has long term ambitions to grow its production base to 900,000 ounces per year.

Uzbekistan is readying an IPO for Navoi Mining and Metallurgy Combinat – the world’s fourth largest gold mining company and significant uranium producer in 2025. NMMC debuted a $1 billion bond offering last week, marking the first global debt market issuance from a gold mining company since June 2023.

Navoi should easily join the ranks of gold producers in the top 50 thanks to ownership of the world’s largest gold mine, Muruntau, and annual production of 2.9 million ounces at grades and per ounce extraction costs the envy of the sector.  

The Muruntau open pit mine southwest of the Kyzylkum desert, originally developed during the Soviet era as a source of uranium, has estimated reserves of around 130 million ounces of gold. 

Goldilocks copper

Copper specialists, and those with fat gold credits, have gained a combined 36% year to date as the copper price continues to flirt with the $10,000 a tonne level but momentum slowed dramatically during Q3 with the group contributing only $7.2 billion in added market worth during the quarter. 

Amman Mineral’s fierce rally also came to an abrupt halt during the quarter with the counter losing 18% over the three months and coming close to falling out of the top 10.

Investors who bought Amman, owner of the world’s third largest mine worldwide in terms of copper equivalent, at the IPO price in Jakarta a year ago, are still enjoying 400% gains since then however. 

Southern Copper’s position as the world’s third most valuable mining stock seems entrenched after a double digit percentage gain in Q3 compared to a much more sedate performance by Freeport-McMoRan which now has to gain a full $20 billion in market cap to haul in its Mexico City-based rival.

Light on lithium 

Rio Tinto’s vote of confidence in the long term future of the lithium sector (and its own ability to make M&A work) dominated the news at the start of the December-quarter but it’s worth noting that Arcadium’s more than 90% surge since the all-cash offer was first announced are not enough for the stock to enter the rankings.

Three lithium counters exited the rankings this year, Australia’s  Pilbara Minerals and Mineral Resources and China’s Tianqi Lithium as the deep slump in prices for the battery metal continues to take its toll.  

Last quarter’s no 50, Ganfeng Lithium jumps six places after being swept up in the stimulus-induced rally on Chinese stock markets at the end of the quarter while Tianqi’s performance so far in October should see it reenter the Top 50 in due course. 

Ganfeng was barely holding on at position 50 at end-June and with gold price momentum continuing and two gold mining companies waiting in the winds – Yintai and Alamos – only three lithium counters in the top 50 may be a reality for some time to come. 

After peaking in the second quarter of 2022 with a combined value of nearly $120 billion, the remaining lithium stocks’ market value has now shrunk to $34 billion.  

Iron ore ground down

Despite a modest improvement during the quarter, the mining industry’s traditional big 5 – BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Vale and Anglo American – remain in the red for 2024, losing $24 billion since the start of the year. 

The big 5 diversifieds now make up 29% of the total index, down from a height of 38% at the end of 2022.  

Iron ore’s less than rosy outlook – the late boost China’s recent stimulus package notwithstanding – saw Fortescue once again feature on the biggest losers list and Cleveland Cliffs exit the ranking with the US iron ore miner’s 37% decline this year exacerbated by its inability to capitalize on the blocking of the Nippon-US Steel tie up. 

Iron ore’s representation in the top 50 have diminished in the last couple of years – Brazil’s CSN Mineração dropped out during Q1 this year while Anglo-controlled and separately-listed Kumba Iron Ore has lost touch with the top tier after a 40% fall year to date.

Click on image for full size table.

NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, stock exchange data, company reports. Share data from primary-listed exchange at close Oct 4, 2024 close of trading converted to US$ where applicable. Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.  

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining (the gold and uranium giant may list later this year), Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec. 

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like China’s CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining will continue to represent a small portion of its valuation.  

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology.

According to Notícias de Mineração Brasil, demand for steel is not expanding fast enough in the country, which has turn to imports, especially from China.

Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal, controlled by Indian billionaire Lakshmi Mittal, was is the midst of expanding the facilities at Monlevade, Brazil.

“As with any project of this size, the company is monitoring the macroeconomic scenario and the steel industry in the country, which has been impacted by increased imports, and the growth in demand for steel has been lower than expected,” ArcelorMittal said in the statement quoted by Defato Online.

In the January-May period, Brazil’s steel industry experienced the impact of high import levels, which increased a further 26.4% from the same period in 2023 to 2.31 million tonnes, data from the Brazilian Steel Institute, (IABr), shows.

Crude steel production increased by 0.6% year-on-year in the five-month period to 13.56 million tonnes, while domestic sales grew 1.9% to 8.32 million tonnes.

Earlier this year, the Brazilian government introduced import quotas and hiked import taxes to 25% on 11 rolled steel products categories to protect the local industry.

The flow-through model, which no other country has, allows resource companies to renounce tax expenses associated with exploration activities in Canada to investors, who can deduct the expenses in calculating their own taxable income. 

This year, Canada implemented changes to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) rules, and the increase in the Capital Gains Inclusion rate which created uncertainty in the market.  

PearTree Financial founder and CEO Ron Bernbaum evaluates how Ottawa’s new tax rules are impacting the mining sector, and the outlook for critical mineral exploration, which plays a key role in the green energy transition. 

Watch the full interview with MINING.com’s Devan Murugan:  

Joint venture videos are paid-for content in arrangement with The Northern Miner Group.

The reopening of activities happened on Sep. 5 and it follows the province’s authorization to restart operations at a portion of the mine, located 20 kilometres south of Tumbler Ridge. 

“We were very excited to receive it,” chief executive Brian Sullivan told CBC News. “We’re going to spend upwards of $500 million bringing it back into production. It will have a permanent workforce of more than 400 permanent good paying jobs.”

Conuma, which now operates four mines in the province — Brule, Wolverine, Willow Creek, and Quintette — acquired the latter in 2022 from Teck Resources for $120 million. 

In June, the company was fined for over 400 environmental protection violations at its Brule mine site, committed between 2020 and 2023. These infractions included failing to monitor mine waste discharge into fish-bearing waters and neglecting to limit airborne particulate emissions.

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Sheinbaum secured the most ballots on Sunday in the nation’s 200-year democratic history, as much as 61% of the vote, according to a sample count by the country’s electoral authority. The tally also predicts her coalition of parties will secure two-thirds of both houses of Congress, allowing it to change the constitution without the opposition’s consent.

“The country’s security situation and rising fiscal deficit, coupled with the strengthening of the Mexican peso, will represent critical challenges for her presidency,” Colin Hamilton, BMO Capital Markets director of commodities research, wrote in a note on Monday.

“From a mining sector perspective it is unclear whether this will mean any lifting of restrictions, such as the de facto ban on new open pit mines, though we would see this as only a possibility rather than a probability in the near term.”

Sheinbaum, a former mayor of Mexico City who has cited López Obrador as her mentor, campaigned on a platform of affordability and promises to tackle corruption. The election saw the murders of 37 candidates as drug cartels seek to control political outcomes.

Pros and cons

To her benefit, the president-elect with a doctorate in environmental engineering, exercised a technocratic approach to crime as mayor and enlisted the business community. But she faces challenges such as low investment from foreign companies new to Mexico, gangs smuggling drugs and migrants into the United States and the erosion of democratic institutions that may target judges next, according to The Economist magazine.

“Sheinbaum’s to-do list is clear: tackle disorder, boost trade and investment and strengthen democracy,” the London-based publication wrote on Monday. “Yet is she really up to the task? One fear is that despite her technocratic credentials and style she is a captive of Mr López Obrador’s agenda.”

The campaign saw Sheinbaum speak more about policy continuity and protecting López Obrador’s legacy than about her own proposals, the magazine noted. Her predecessor governed by whim and bombast, it said.

Peso falls

Mexico’s peso fell against the dollar after the initial election result as investors raised concerns about the ruling Morena party winning unchecked power in Congress.

The currency dropped about 4% against the Canadian dollar, to trade at the weakest level since November. One bought 12.88 pesos on Monday compared with 12.39 pesos on Saturday.

An opinion piece in The Wall St. Journal on Sunday said Sheinbaum’s government may seek to directly elect Supreme Court justices, end proportional representation for congressional seats, and eliminate the Federal Economic Competition Commission and the National Institute for Transparency, Access to Information, and Protection of Personal Information.

“The reforms would be bad for Mexico, although in the short run things might not change much,” Mary Anastasia O’Grady wrote. “The frog would boil slowly.”

Quentin Yarie, the CEO from July 2015 before stepping down on Feb. 21 this year in an unrelated move, according to the company, oversaw a data collection process where he was the sole recipient of emailed assay results from Activation Labs. Red Pine alleges Yarie changed 532 assays out of 98,000 before forwarding them to staff for use in project modelling its 2019 resource update and marketing.

“Look, in the end, it could have been a lot worse in terms of timing and the impact,” incoming CEO Michael Michaud said on a conference call on Wednesday. “We still believe in the potential of the asset. This is the reason why I joined Red Pine, this is reason why I’m here today and am looking forward to becoming the CEO.”

The scandal for the junior, which lost 60% of its share price when assay discrepancies were first revealed on May 1, may bring to mind the Bre-X Minerals fraud of the 1990s, but is on a much lower scale. Red Pine estimates the doctored assays aimed to marginally increase grade and could lower its Wawa project resource by as much as 12%. Bre-X involved blatant salting of core samples with incompatible gold nuggets.

“Certainly, though there was some manipulation of the assets, they were mostly embellishments,” Michaud said. “I’m not really terribly upset about the 10 or 15% because we’ll get that back easy.”

New resource

Red Pine suspended planned drilling and said it would trim costs at the site as it prepares to issue a new resource update with completely verified assays from as much as 70,000 metres in drilling since the last update. It didn’t give a potential completion date.

Shares in Red Pine rose about 20% to C$0.11 apiece on Wednesday morning in Toronto, valuing the company at C$21 million. They plunged to C$0.08 apiece from C$0.21 on May 1 when the company first described the assay inconsistencies in a release. They had traded in a range of C$0.16 to C$0.24 this year until May.

Red Pine referred the alleged fraud to the Ontario Securities Commission. It didn’t mention any legal action of its own against Yarie. He hasn’t replied to a request last week for comment from The Northern Miner.

The project lies beside the town of Wawa near the northeast shore of Lake Superior, about 220 km north of Sault Ste. Marie. The site hosts several historical mines that produced about 120,000 oz. gold.

Red Pine acquired the project in 2014. It produced a resource for the Surluga deposit in 2015 and later merged it with one on a historical mine area, Minto, in 2018.

New CEO

The company on April 22 announced the appointment of Michaud as CEO. He is to take office around July 19. The leadership change had nothing to do with the alleged assay manipulation, chairman and interim CEO Paul Martin (not the former Prime Minister) repeated on Wednesday.

“In all cases, the manipulation that occurred was to increase the grade,” Martin said on the call. “However, in virtually all cases, the manipulated grades were defendable at the time, based on among other things, the visual inspection of the core and assessment of the mineralogy, and one reason why the selective manipulations were not easily brought to light at the time.

“The changes were supported by the nuggety effect of the property as represented in the overwhelming number of unmanipulated assay results, often near where the selective manipulations were done.”

Red Pine staff first noticed a discrepancy between a certified assay result received from Actlabs and the corresponding assay result in the company’s database on April 29. An investigation determined the assay altering was done from the spring of 2015 until Jan. 30 this year.

Investigation

The company divided its investigations into two periods of assay results: 2014-2019 that resulted in the mineral resource estimates set out in the NI 43-101 technical report dated June 21, 2023 with an effective resource date of May 31, 2019.

The independent geologist in charge of the resource update, known in mining regulations as the qualified person, was Brian Thomas of Sudbury-based Golder Associates, now part of Montreal-headquartered WSP. Thomas declined to comment when reached this week by our sister publication, The Northern Miner. He referred questions to his WSP manager, Anas Tuijar, who didn’t return a phone message.

A second period covered 2019 to the present, during which assay results were disclosed through news releases.

For the first period, Red Pine determined that the inconsistencies mean a reduction in inferred resources for Wawa’s Surlaga and Minto deposits.

It estimated the Surluga area will lose an estimated 39,500 to 54,000 oz. (between 205,000 and 240,000 tonnes grading, on average, 6 to 7 grams gold per tonne) from inferred resources. That compares with the previous estimate of 2.4 million tonnes grading 5.22 grams gold per tonne. The indicated resource of 1.2 million tonnes grading 5.31 grams gold is not expected to change.

The Minto deposit loses 8,000 to 12,000 indicated oz. (between 30,000 and 40,000 tonnes grading 8.5 to 9.5 grams gold), and 16,000 to 20,000 inferred ounces (75,000 to 85,000 tonnes grading 6.5 to 7.5 grams gold). It was previously reported to hold 105,000 indicated tonnes grading 7.5 grams gold per tonne and 354,000 inferred tonnes grading 6.6 grams gold.

Kazakhstan is expected to deliver the highest uranium production growth in 2024, GlobalData says, driven by the planned higher output from the country’s largest uranium producer Kazatomprom. The continuous ramp-up of Canada’s McArthur River uranium mine will also contribute to the global increase, it adds.

Kazakhstan accounted for 37.3% (20.1kt) of total global uranium supply in 2023. Despite a 5.1% dip in output in 2023 due to planned lower production from Kazatomprom, its output is expected to recover in 2024, with forecast production of 23.2kt. This will be supported by the company’s plan to produce between 21.2-21.6kt on a 100% basis, while production is expected to increase to between 25.9-26.7kt with no restrictions in 2025.

Meanwhile, global uranium production in 2024 will be further bolstered by continuous ramp-up of Canada’s McArthur River, which is aiming to produce 6.9kt of uranium (8.2kt of U3O8) for 2024. In October 2023, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission renewed the licences for McArthur River for a further 20 years, allowing the mine to continue operations until October 2043.

Global uranium production is expected to grow with a compound annual growth rate of 4.1% from 2024 to 2030, as output reaches 76.8kt in 2030.

Read More: Uranium price jumps to 15-year high as top miner flags shortfall

W5 investigated how the Panamanian government’s 20-year mining concession with Canadian mining company First Quantum Minerals triggered mass protests and civil unrest amid allegations of corruption and fears of environmental degradation — prompting the country’s Supreme Court to intervene.

Mining continues to engage with the many difficult issues that affect the future of the industry and broader society, judging by the topics and turn-out at this year’s Investing in African Mining Indaba in Cape Town.

“The event remains a forum for productive, if challenging, conversations,” said Andrew van Zyl, SRK Consulting managing director, South Africa.

“Many of these issues – from climate change and decarbonisation to the just energy transition – can be controversial; what is important, though, is that all stakeholders feel that they can participate in robust dialogue to find sustainable solutions.”

Van Zyl acknowledged that many of the sector’s responses to the challenges of today and tomorrow were “works in progress” but emphasized how constructively it had adapted in recent decades.

“Part of the value of the Mining Indaba is that it brings together leaders and role players at both a strategic and technical level,” he said. “This allows not only for ideas to be shared and developed, but for experts to find practical strategies for implementing solutions.”

The rapid pace of global changes was making these forums for knowledge sharing even more important, he noted, as decision makers in mining needed to factor in fast moving variables. This related as much to the political evolution of African countries as it did to technological advancements in the energy sector.

“It is more vital than ever that, as players in mining, we regularly and frequently update our world views with quality information – so that we retain a relevant opinion on future demands and opportunities,” said Van Zyl.

An example is the steady improvement being made in renewable power generation and storage. Whereas certain orebodies were in the past uneconomic due to their remoteness from a centralised power grid, the renewable energy technologies of today could now remove that hurdle.

He pointed out that trends related to the energy transition continued to make commodity prices volatile – complicating the task of valuing mineral resources and planning mining operations. Various early-stage technologies in electric battery manufacture, for instance, still competed for market acceptance, affecting demand for the minerals each technology embodied.

“As in so many spheres that affect the demand for mineral commodities, the mining sector does not get to decide the final value of what it mines,” he said. “Neither does it decide on what the global economy wants to make with its mineral production; these external trends introduce ongoing disruption to which the sector must constantly adapt.”

As an industry, he argued, mining will continue to drive improvements in fields such as safety, operating costs, employee diversity, social value and environmental impact – while navigating the broader socio-economic trends.

Its resilience was well tested by the Covid-19 pandemic, when mining came to the rescue of many economies and communities.

In South Africa, for instance, the mines’ experience and infrastructure in respiratory illness helped protect employees and their communities – while its stand-out economic performance supported the national fiscus at a time when much of the private sector was in crisis.

“We need to appreciate the value of having honest discussions on what mining has to offer, what its considerable contribution has been, and what kind of future we are working towards,” said Van Zyl. “As a regular participant in the Mining Indaba, we see this forum as helping promote such conversations.”

The explorer entered voluntary administration in December, engaging in a formal restructuring. It’s now finalizing the audit of its 2023 financial accounts and is working towards resumption of trading on the Australian Stock Exchange in March this year, it said.

“The company’s balance sheet has been significantly restructured with all previous trade creditors and other payables agreeing to the settlement terms proposed in the deed of company arrangement presented on Jan. 19,” managing director and chief executive, Matt Shackleton, said in the statement.

Australian Potash noted it had also re-analyzed all previous results on the Lake Wells gold project and had identified walk up drill targets to target immediately. The explorer will also push forward with the requisite access and heritage agreements at the Nexus rare earths project in the West Arunta.

To mark the new phase, the company has appointed Jonathan Fisher to its board, while Natalia Streltsova and Rhett Brans have resigned their directorships.

An analysis of the firm’s database reveals that BMO Capital Markets advised on transactions worth a total of $27.4 billion, positioning it at the forefront of significant industry consolidations. Canaccord Genuity Group advised on 15 deals throughout the year, leading the sector in terms of deal volume.

“Canaccord Genuity Group registered significant growth in the volume of deals advised and ranking by this metric in 2023 compared with the previous year,” GlobalData lead analyst Aurojyoti Bose said.

“In fact, it was the only adviser to hit the double-digit deal volume in 2023.”

BMO Capital Markets secured joint second place by deal volume with nine transactions, with Allenby Capital matching this volume with nine deals of its own. Macquarie followed closely with seven deals and Rothschild & Co with six.

“BMO Capital Markets was the top adviser by value in 2022 and managed to retain its leadership position in 2023 as well. The total value of deals advised by it jumped by more than double-fold in 2023 compared with 2022,” Bose added.

Goldman Sachs took second spot in this metric, advising on deals amounting to $25 billion. Bank of America was not far behind with advisory deals totalling $22.6 billion. Barclays and Lazard also featured prominently, advising on deals worth $21.8 billion and $20.3 billion respectively.

Before the official inductions, MC and Northern Miner Group president Anthony Vaccaro recapped the highs and lows of 2023 — a difficult year that saw big shifts in geopolitics, terrible markets for miners, and sliding metals prices (with the exception of uranium and gold). 

Vaccaro, serving as MC for the fifth year running, got things rolling with a verbal and pictorial journey through the year that was, while reflecting on mining’s deep interconnection with global affairs, and playfully reimagining its public image. He also touched on the profound impact each of the night’s inductees have had on the industry in Canada and beyond. 

Watch the video below for his introduction to the 36th annual CMHF induction ceremony.

The report titled ‘Top of the charts: ‘Five low-carbon tech trends worth tracking’ looks at five key charts and identifies some key underlying trends across the low-carbon landscape.

Alongside the fall in Chinese solar hardware costs, the report also examines the meteoric rise of renewable energy, the efforts being made to diversify battery raw materials supply, the progress of carbon capture and storage and the growth of domestic heat pumps.

“With delegates at COP28 making a commitment to phase out fossil fuels, these five charts highlight the vital importance of all facets of the energy transition process,” said Dr. Steven Knell, VP power & renewables at Wood Mackenzie, who co-authored the report. “The charts (in the report) show the progress that is being made, but also underline how much still needs to be done.”

The report also states that policy is widening to support the build-out of domestic supply chains for low-carbon technologies and to develop new sources of critical minerals to reduce global dependence on China. While in some cases such as Chinese solar module production, costs are coming down, in others they will remain high.

“The charts contained in the report indicate the global scale of the energy transition process and identifies some of the challenges,” added Malcolm Forbes-Cable, VP upstream and carbon management consulting, another co-author.

“With $70 billion needed to be invested in global CCUS (carbon capture, utilization and storage) transport and sequestration infrastructure before 2030, the financial implications alone will require global solutions.”

The Scope 3 Emissions Target Setting Guidance underscores the importance of transparency and engagement with suppliers, customers, investors and regulators in setting targets to help accelerate emissions reduction throughout the value chain, ICMM said in a statement.

In 2021, ICMM members committed to achieve net zero Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 or sooner, in line with the ambitions of the Paris Agreement. They also committed to report on Scope 3 emissions and set reduction targets by the end of 2023.

Scope 3 emissions are a critical area of focus for the mining and metals industry, representing up to 95% of a company’s total emissions, compared to 75% across other sectors, the Council said, citing a study by Mining Technology.

In September 2023, ICMM published Scope 3 Emissions Accounting and Reporting Guidance, establishing a standardized framework for mining and metals companies to calculate and disclose their value chain emissions. This new target setting guidance builds on these accounting and reporting principles.

According to ICMM, this guidance defines target-setting principles tailored to the specific considerations of the mining and metals sector, and is drawn from current EU, US, UK, Canadian and Australian regulatory frameworks, as well as guidance from the United Nations’ High Level Expert Group on Net Zero Emissions Commitments of Non-State Entities.

Acknowledging the inherent differences in commodities and value chains, rather than endorsing a specific methodology, it provides mining and metals-specific context around commonly used approaches, ICMM added.

The guidance establishes a robust framework that sets out leading practice across four maturity stages, with each stage outlining minimum expectations across five key dimensions: accounting and reporting, identification of emissions ‘hotspots’, business integration and alignment, assessment of decarbonization pathways and organizational governance.

“As the discussions at COP28 have made clear, each sector bears the responsibility to understand its part in the broader system and extend beyond immediate boundaries to unearth solutions to stubborn sources of emissions. As the base products in almost every industry – from renewable energy and sustainable transport, to construction and tech – metals and minerals are critical to advancing the Sustainable Development Goals and meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement,” ICMM chief executive officer Rohitesh Dhawan said in a statement.

“At Antofagasta, our commitment to addressing climate change permeates every aspect of our strategy and decision-making. The introduction of ICMM’s Scope 3 Emissions Target Setting Guidance is an important step in enhancing transparency and catalyzing collaborative efforts across the industry to curb these emissions,” Iván Arriagada, member of ICMM’s Council Climate Change Advisory Group, and CEO of Antofagasta plc, added.

Find ICMM’s Scope 3 Emissions Target Setting Guidance here.

We are excited to tell you all about the recent change in ownership of The Northern Miner Group. On Dec. 1, The Northern Miner Group was officially acquired by EarthLabs Inc. (TSXV: SPOT; OTCQX: SPOFF). This acquisition represents an evolution of The Northern Miner Group’s brands: The Northern Miner, MINING.COM and Canadian Mining Journal, which combined can reach over 1 million users monthly across our news sites, e-digests and social media channels.  

It will also usher in a wave of innovation as EarthLabs was previously GoldSpot Discoveries, a startup that sold its AI mineral exploration technology division to ALS Global in late 2022. 

“We have long been reviewing opportunities in the media space, waiting for the right opportunity to expand our portfolio,” Denis Laviolette, executive chairman and CEO of EarthLabs, said in a release. “The TNM Group assets are highly complementary to our own, with mining news and media products that will now benefit from greater distribution, including millions of valued users on CEO.CA.” 

The power of our vaunted media brands meshing with the culture of a successful tech company has us all looking towards new ways that we can better serve our readers and our clients with more interactive news source and more market awareness.  

EarthLabs currently consists of CEO.CA, the largest social media platform for mining investors that boasts more than 12 million unique viewers since inception and a highly engaged audience; DigiGeoData, a mineral resource database and mapping tool that provides geological, claim, drill hole and other contextual information; and a precious metals royalty portfolio that includes nearly 2,500 sq. km of prospective ground in Newfoundland. 

What does this mean for readers?  

The Northern Miner, established in 1915, along with Canadian Mining Journal, established 1882 and MINING.COM, established in 2008, have earned readers’ trust through our dedication to quality, unbiased journalism. That will not change as the media group will run independently under the same continued leadership.  

The Northern Miner Symposiums, our successful and growing events segment, has earned a strong reputation as a convener of some of the biggest names in mining. It will continue to provide exceptional networking opportunities and it will also grow as we and our partners, Precious Metals Summit Conferences, launch the Energy Transition Metals Summit in Washington D.C. from Apr. 29-30, 2024.

In the near term you will see an increased focus on multi-media journalism as we bring you more site visits and interviews with leaders making a difference in both video and podcast formats. In addition, our advertisers will benefit from a larger engaged audience spread across a broader geographic reach with unparalleled performance tracking reports. 

We also plan to enhance our data offerings such as TNM Marco Polo mining intelligence platform by leveraging data and insights from DigiGeoData. TNM Maps and DigiGeoData Maps will also combine forces, emerging as the industry standard for mining project “Hot Play”activity mapping. It will distribute to an online audience of over 1 million plus more at in-person events. 

We look forward to serving you with best industry insights, data and networking opportunities for the next 100 years of our story.

Anthony Vaccaro, president of The Northern Miner Group

London, UK-based International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) said that it, the Copper Mark, MAC and the World Gold Council are working to consolidate their individual voluntary responsible mining standards into a single global standard with a multi-stakeholder oversight system.

As investor focus on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors has grown, both mining companies and investors have found it difficult to keep up with the ever expanding number of ESG standards — often referred to as ‘alphabet soup‘ as each has its own acronym.

“This collaboration responds to direct feedback from investors, civil society, customers, policy makers and mining companies that confirmed the appetite for a less crowded and complex standards landscape that is more transparent, robust and encourages wider industry participation to drive impact at scale,” reads the ICMM release.

The proposed standard could have the widest coverage of any voluntary responsible mining standard to date, with initial implementation by more than 80 mining companies with around 700 operations in almost 60 countries worldwide. Broader participation by companies beyond the four organizations will help support the industry to further raise the bar on ESG (environment, social and governance) performance.

The process aims to take the best attributes of each organization’s standard while ensuring the resulting standard would be practical for any mine operator to follow, regardless of commodity, geography or size. Implementation of the single standard would be overseen by an independent, multi-stakeholder governance body and a credible assurance process, both of which are yet to be defined and developed.

Multi-stakeholder and industry advisory groups will play an essential role in providing a balanced perspective on the standard, assurance process and governance model. ICMM expects to launch a wide ranging public consultation and stakeholder engagement process next year.

Gold producer financial metrics remain strong for respective ratings partially driven by a period of high gold prices beginning in 2020, which drove higher shareholder returns and investment as well as stronger financial flexibility, the firm said.

Gold prices have been resilient despite raising real interest rates beginning in 2022, supported, in part, by geopolitical factors and flight-to-quality investment demand, it added.

Looking ahead, Fitch sees gold prices moderating but remaining elevated in 2024 and 2025 relative to our midcycle assumption of $1,500/ounce. Margins will be pressured given elevated costs despite cost cutting/productivity programs but should be relatively strong for respective ratings.

The full report “Global Gold Mining — Relative Credit Analysis” is available here.

ABS develops and manufactures a wide variety of heavy-duty and industrial battery packs, using lithium-ion batteries for commercial vehicles, transit buses and on- and off-road vehicles. The company provides both standard and custom battery systems optimized to each customer’s needs.

ABS’ technology, combined with the advanced product development knowledge and expertise of its people, enables the company to develop and manufacture battery packs designed to deliver superior performance and product life, and to enhance safety.

The acquisition of ABS will enable Komatsu to develop and produce its own battery-operated construction and mining equipment, through the integration of ABS’ battery technology with Komatsu’s knowledge and network. The first equipment produced with ABS’ batteries will be used to power mining equipment in North and South America, where demand for electrification has been increasing.

In the future, Komatsu will aim to expand the use of batteries in construction equipment and to establish a global supply system. The Japanese firm will continue to support ABS’ battery business to further develop the electrification business post-acquisition.

ABS will operate as a standalone business entity within Komatsu and will continue its growth plans by executing on its current and prospective customer programs in the commercial vehicle segments. The mining and construction opportunities provided through Komatsu will enable ABS to position itself as one of the world’s leading providers of battery systems in both on-highway and off-highway markets.

Through the acquisition, Komatsu will accelerate the development of battery-powered electric vehicles by utilizing ABS’ battery-related technology, along with other initiatives Komatsu is pursuing with its partners, to further contribute to the electrification of construction and mining equipment and the realization of a decarbonized society.

These efforts will help Komatsu achieve its management target of 50% reduction of CO2 emissions from the use of its products by 2030 (compared to 2010 levels) as well as the company’s challenge target of achieving its carbon neutrality by 2050.

As part of its growth strategy for the mid-term management plan “DANTOTSU Value – Together, to ‘The Next’ for sustainable growth,” Komatsu is working to develop and launch electric equipment to help achieve carbon neutrality, creating new value for customers with the development of new equipment, processes and technologies that will help operations step forward to the next stage for the workplace of the future and provide a more sustainable environment for the next generation.

Under the deal, which still must be approved by regulators in Ottawa, Glencore is to pay $6.9 billion for 77% of Elk Valley Resources, Teck’s coal business, while Japan’s Nippon Steel will take 20% and Posco of South Korea gets 3%.

The steelmakers are swapping their interests in specific coal producers for stakes in the wider company. Nippon is also to pay $1.7 billion to Teck.

The deal caps negotiations that have gone on since April when Teck rejected an offer from Glencore to buy all of Canada’s largest diversified miner. It also would seal Teck’s plans to sell off its coal operations to focus on its copper and zinc business. Industry and political debate has swirled around the plans as some concerns mounted Switzerland-based Glencore was buying up Canadian resources. Others noted Glencore actually employs more Canadians than Teck.

“This transaction will be a catalyst to re-focus Teck as a Canadian-based critical minerals champion with an extensive portfolio of copper growth projects, unlocking the full value potential of the company,” Teck president and CEO Jonathan Price said in a release.

“This sale will ensure Teck is well-capitalized and able to realize value from our base metals business and deliver strong returns to our shareholders while maintaining a robust balance sheet.”

The deal is expected to close in the third-quarter next year. Teck will keep operating the coal business until then and may earn as much as $1 billion during that time, it said.

Regulators in Ottawa must approve the foreign takeover. They would consider issues of national security and the transaction’s economic impact to determine if there is overall benefit to Canada.

The sale allows Teck to pivot to greener metals than coal, while the miner had expressed concerns about Glencore’s tarnished past with regulators that had disciplined it for alleged bribery and market manipulation. Teck expressed confidence in Glencore on Tuesday.

“Glencore has made strong commitments that will create new benefits for Canada and the Elk Valley and ensure responsible stewardship of the steelmaking coal operations for the long term,” Price said.

Norman B. Keevil, Teck’s chairman emeritus, had opposed Glencore’s plan to purchase Teck, but now backs the sale, noting it will keep jobs.

“This company was built on a foundation of sound geoscience and engineering excellence, with a record of successful mine-building second to none,” Keevil said in Tuesday’s statement. “That is the same foundation we see for Teck’s future. It’s time to get on with it.”

In a press release on Wednesday, Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, announced a C$5.4 million (~$4 million) investment over four years for the International Institute of Sustainable Development (IISD) to support its ongoing role as the Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Forum on Mining, Minerals, Metals and Sustainable Development (IGF).

The IGF provides a range of services to its 81 member countries to support the advancement of their sustainable development goals through laws, policy making and regulations within the mining sector.

The IGF’s work encompasses a range of outreach and promotional activities to enhance awareness, engagement and cooperation across the mining industry. These activities include conducting Mining Policy Framework (MPF) assessments with member countries to identify gaps and best practices and implement the MPF, and delivering specialized training sessions and technical assistance focused on critical minerals and responsible mining, with an emphasis of promoting gender diversity and inclusivity.

Canada’s investment will serve as core funding to the operations of the IGF Secretariat, including the governance and technical capacity building delivered to the member countries of the IGF.

“Canada is a mining nation and, as such, is a world leader in the sustainable and responsible management of our mineral resources. As demand for critical minerals and the clean energy and technologies they enable increase, our high ESG standards and the expertise of our workforce will be critical advantages in the low-carbon economy of the future,” Wilkinson said in the statement.

“And by partnering with our international allies to advocate for responsible mining practices around the world, we are ensuring that the materials we need to lower emissions and ensure a prosperous economy are sourced in a manner that protects our planet.”

This funding comes from the C$70 million allocated for the Global Partnerships Initiative announced in December 2022 to advance Canada’s global leadership on critical minerals under Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy.

NGen is the industry-led not-for-profit organization that leads Canada’s Global Innovation Cluster for Advanced Manufacturing. Its mandate is to help build world-leading advanced manufacturing capabilities for the benefit of Canadians.

The organization seeks projects with dual-use applications that will strengthen Canada’s technological leadership in space and help revitalize the long-term competitiveness of the nation’s most important industrial sectors.

The M4M3 program is expected lead to next-generation innovations that help tackle the challenges of establishing a permanent human presence on the Moon, leveraging Canada’s strengths in fields like artificial intelligence, robotics, quantum sensing, and additive manufacturing that can then be re-applied back on earth.

These innovations will have direct and positive impacts on environmental sustainability, productivity, talent and job creation in Canada’s mining, energy, and advanced manufacturing sectors, NGen said.

This initiative is undertaken with the financial support of the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) following an announcement of opportunity. NGen’s call for projects will support ISRU solutions and commercialization in the following areas: mining, critical minerals and manufacturing.

“NGen wants to draw on Canada’s expertise in space and advanced manufacturing technologies to build world-leading solutions for lunar resource development while contributing to the competitiveness of Canada’s critical manufacturing and mining sectors,” NGen NGen Jayson Myers said a statement.

“New solutions are needed for these dual-purpose applications that promise to put Canada at the forefront of industrial innovation in space and on earth.”

However, these companies may not have reached the peak of their investment and expansion efforts, as the 2023 planned capex is still $36.5 billion short of 2013’s peak of $145.7 billion, the firm adds.

“We expect investment in the next two years will become more challenging against a backdrop of high inflation and interest rates and slowing economic activity, leading the group’s capex to decrease 1.8% in 2024 and 0.7% in 2025,” says Ying Li, a metals analyst at S&P.

S&P notes that capex of the diversified companies may go towards items such as smelters, steel production, logistics or power generation, meaning the total spend of each company is not directly comparable. This analysis focuses only on the capex for metals and mining projects.

According to S&P, the highest capital budget spend in financial year 2023 is expected to come from BHP at $7.6 billion. The world’s biggest miner has increased its capex outlook for fiscal 2024 to $10 billion from a previous management projection of $9 billion. Capex for stage 1 of the Jansen mine in Canada was $647 million in fiscal 2023, and the project was 26% complete as of the close of the financial year. BHP expects its capex for stage 1 to increase to approximately $1.0 billion in fiscal 2024 and total capex for the project to reach $5.7 billion.

BHP also increased capex guidance to $11 billion per year for the medium term, of which approximately $4 billion in aggregate will be channeled to operational decarbonization before the end of 2030. The company approved a number of potential projects to begin in the next few years and will give an update on investment for its Escondida copper mine in Chile and iron ore operations in Western Australia, which will account for 71% of the total development capex in fiscal 2023–24, S&P estimates.

Following closely in second is Rio Tinto, whose latest 2023 capex guidance is set $7.4 billion — including about $1.5 billion in growth capital — to be used to ramp-up projects, including Guinea’s vast Simandou iron ore deposit, the underground expansion of Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine in Mongolia and Argentina’s Salar del Rincon lithium project.

Rio Tinto’s investment over the next two years is starting to tilt more toward growth, with its total capital investments guidance for 2024 and 2025 set at up to $10 billion, which S&P says could vary depending on the rate of development at Simandou. It is worth noting, however, that even with the company’s capital spending growing a projected 42.8% in 2024, putting it three times higher than the 2016 low, it is still below the 2012 peak.

Anglo American trimmed its 2023 capex outlook to $6.0 billion in midyear reporting from previous guidance of $6.0 billion to $6.5 billion. This includes growth spending of $1.5 billion, of which $700 million is planned for the Woodsmith polyhalite project in the UK. The company’s share of the ramp-up associated with the Quellaveco copper mine in Peru is planned at approximately $100 million in 2023. S&P expects that capex will average $5.3 billion per year in 2024 and 2025, with sustaining capital planned to remain between $4 billion and $5 billion each year.

Vale’s capex totalled $5.5 billion in 2022 but was 8% higher than guidance due to investment in some projects in Brazil, namely the Sol do Cerrado solar energy complex, the Serra Sul iron ore expansion, the Capanema and Tubarao Briquette iron ore projects, and the Salobo III copper project expansion.

The company plans to spend approximately $6 billion in 2023 on projects, including the Onca Puma mine’s second furnace, the Thompson phase 1 part of Manitoba Division and the construction of Voisey’s Bay underground mine expansion, the continuing ramp-up of the Serra Sul operation, as well as the Morowali nickel project in Indonesia.

Rounding out the top 5 biggest spending miners between 2022-2024 is Glencore, which is due to invest approximately $4.8 billion this year. Capex at Glencore’s industrial assets is expected to average $5.6 billion per year between 2023 and 2025, with $1.1 billion per year for metals portfolio expansion activities, $3.2 billion per year for sustaining metals assets, and $1.3 billion per year for supporting the continued operations of the energy portfolio in line with the climate commitment, S&P says.

Key investment projects for Glencore over the next few years include the desalination project at the Collahuasi copper joint venture in Chile, the extension of Sudbury integrated nickel operations in Canada, the Zhairem zinc project in Kazakhstan, and the commissioning of Canadian Raglan phase 2 in 2024 and that of Onaping Depth in 2025.

The Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana is valued at as much as $2 billion. As many as three Chinese companies with state ties or owners are reportedly in the running to bid for the copper deposit.

Khoemacau Copper Mining is wholly owned by Cuprous Capital Ltd., which has its registered office in Vancouver and was incorporated in B.C. in 2012. Cuprous, in turn, is 88.1 per cent owned by U.S. private equity firm Cupric Canyon Capital LP, a company majority owned by funds managed by London-based Global Natural Resources Investments, and 11.9 per cent by Resource Capital Fund VII LP.

Copper is listed as a critical mineral by the Canadian government and Canada’s most important ally, the United States, has been leading a push to ensure unimpeded access to metals and minerals vital to the economy and leading-edge technology.

Pierre Lassonde, co-founder and chairman emeritus of mining royalty company Franco-Nevada Corp. (TSX: FNV), urged the Canadian government to look at any sale of the Botswana copper mine very carefully.

“The bottom line is a Canadian company controlling a critical mineral – a very valuable critical mineral asset,” he said.

Mr. Lassonde said Ottawa needs to get involved, particularly because of the size of a potential transaction.

In late October last year, the Canadian government warned that it would make it harder for foreign state-owned companies to make big purchases in this country’s critical minerals sector – and that these approvals would only be exceptions.

“Significant transactions by foreign state-owned enterprises in Canada’s critical minerals sectors will only be approved as of likely net benefit on an exceptional basis,” Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said in the statement.

“As well, should a foreign state-owned company participate in these types of transactions, it could constitute reasonable grounds to believe that the investment could be injurious to Canada’s national security, regardless of the value of the transaction.”

Bloomberg reported last month that Zijin Mining Group Co., MMG Ltd. and Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., known as Chinalco, all made it to the second round of bidding for the Khoemacau project. It also said MMG has been in talks to team up with Citic Metal Co., an arm of Chinese state-owned conglomerate Citic Group. Other bidders include two South African companies.

It reported Khoemacau is ramping up annual output to more than 50,000 tonnes after starting operations in mid-2021.

The U.S. has shown a keen interest in keeping Western assets within the control of like-minded countries and out of the hands of the Chinese state. On Tuesday, the U.S. State Department held a webinar on encouraging interest in the redevelopment of Toronto-based Premium Nickel Resources Ltd.’s PNRL-X nickel, copper and cobalt assets in Botswana, calling them three of the largest critical metals deposits in that country and “some of the largest deposits of their kind on the continent.”

Asked about the Khoemacau mine sale, the Canadian government said in a statement that a transaction involving Cuprous would fit the criteria for a review, but would not comment on whether it would review a takeover affecting the company.

“The Investment Canada Act (ICA) provides for the review of the most significant investments by non-Canadians to ensure their likely net benefit to the Canadian economy. And all investments, no matter their value, can also be subject to a national security review under the ICA. Therefore, the acquisition of a Canadian company by a foreign company could be subject to a review under the ICA,” Laurie Bouchard, director of communications for Mr. Champagne, said in a statement.

“As mentioned in our policy, cases involving critical minerals are also scrutinized closely. The protection of Canada’s critical minerals is not only a matter of national security, it is a matter of economic security as well. Due to the confidentiality provisions of the Act, we cannot comment further.”

A spokesperson for Khoemacau Copper Mining declined to say whether investors would seek approval from Canada should a sale commence.

“We do not comment on ongoing processes. However, we confirm that all applicable laws have been and will be complied with,” Alan Fine, a senior principal at R&A Strategic Communications, said on behalf of Khoemacau.

With reports from Reuters

Simultaneously, Mainland China’s service-led recovery, along with weak global demand continue to pressure prices along with investor sentiment towards industrial metals, including copper.

Although Fitch expects prices to improve slightly from current levels in 2023, the analyst  does not expect a return to the highs seen in 2022 as China’s real estate sector remains in doldrums.

Prices have averaged $8,628/tonne in the year to date as of September 19 2023, lower than the average of $8,788/tonne seen in full year 2022, on the back of subdued global demand in the main, the analyst said in its latest market report.

Prices have been on a steady downward trend since mid-January 2023, after peaking at $9,356/tonne on January 23 2023 on the back of expectations of a strong rebound in Chinese demand.

Prices were hovering around $8,293/tonne as of September 19, down 11% from the year to date high of $9,356/tonne.

The forecast of $8,550/ tonne for 2023 means Fitch expects prices to remain under significant pressure in Q4 as weak demand and rising inventory levels hammer prices.

Production

Globally, Fitch forecasts refined copper production to remain in growth territory over the coming decade despite some short-term supply disruptions from outside China, as a number of smelters undergo maintenance that will ultimately reduce total annual output volumes.

The analyst also expects supply issues in Latin America to hamper copper concentrate supply growth, leaving the market tight and putting pressure on refined copper supply in the coming months.

Fitch forecasts global refined copper output to climb from 27.3mnt in 2023 to 35.2mnt by 2032, averaging 3.1% annual growth.

Consumption

The analyst predicts global copper consumption growth to rise in 2023 by 2.9% to 27mnt, amid an uneven economic recovery in China and a drag from other markets.

Fitch notes that the green energy transition will partially offset this downside pressure. Over the rest of the decade, the firm anticipates strong demand growth driven by the renewables and autos construction industries.

The analyst expects global copper demand to increase from 27 million tonnes in 2023 to 36 million tonnes in 2032, averaging 3.3% annual growth.

Read the full report here.

Froneman has been the CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater for over 10 years and brings over 40 years’ experience in the mining industry. Under his leadership, Sibanye evolved from a South African gold producer to a multi-national diversified mining and processing business with assets in five continents. It has also built a leading position in platinum group metals recycling (circular economy) and tailings reprocessing.

In addition to Froneman’s appointment, WGC also welcomed Niël Pretorius, CEO at DRDGOLD, to its board of directors. Based in South Africa, DRDGOLD specializes in the extraction of gold through the large-scale retreatment of mine dumps and tailings dams.

These appointments mark continued evolution and diversity of experience and industry contributions to the board of WGC, the Council said in a press release.

“I would like to thank Randy for his leadership of the board over the last few years. Under his tenure, the World Gold Council has embarked on several new initiatives, from our transformational Gold247 program to help digitalize the global gold industry, to bringing gold to the attention of millions of retail investors,” WGC CEO David Tait said.

“We welcome the appointment of Neal as the new chairman. His wealth of experience in the industry will greatly benefit myself and the rest of the board. I look forward to working with him in this new capacity, and to further our work to improve the gold market and demonstrate the valuable contribution responsible gold mining makes to the world and host communities.”

Also this week, the WGC announced the launch of a new documentary: GOLD: A Journey with Idris Elba, created in partnership with Pioneer Productions.

This docuseries explores the value of gold in past, present and future, while discovering its impacts on individuals, communities and economies. It also highlights how the industry is navigating current challenges, from post-mining regeneration and energy consumption to the future of the workforce in gold mining.

The documentary is now available on YouTube. Click here to watch.

Speaking at the 2023 Gold Forum Americas conference on Tuesday, Palmer says he expects the combined business to deliver around $500 million of annual synergies, with a target of $2 billion in cash from portfolio optimization.

The Newcrest acquisition, says Palmer, is expected to strengthen Newmont’s portfolio and create the best collection of Tier 1 gold and copper assets concentrated in favorable mining jurisdictions.

The biggest value drivers of the transaction will come from Newcrest’s two Tier 1 operations, Cadia and Lihir, located in Australia and Papua New Guinea, respectively.

The Newmont executive draws comparison to what the company experienced at the Peñasquito in Mexico, which has returned some $5.8 billion since its acquisition over four years ago.

A full transcript of Palmer’s speech is here.

According to the New York-based firm, the financial profiles of miners will remain resilient in the short to medium term as commodity prices remain above mid-cycle levels. This is despite “significant normalization in prices year-to-date,” which it says will provide financial flexibility for M&A.

As such, deal activity is on track to reach the highest for a decade this year, with miners experiencing increased financial flexibility as a result of extraordinarily high profits over 2021-2022.

“Changing demand patterns brought about by the energy transition, increasingly lengthy greenfield project construction timelines and limited organic growth options should support deal activity beyond 2023,” Fitch says.

“Miners will be particularly active in future-facing metals such as lithium, nickel and copper, where the market is likely to be in structural deficit beyond 2026.”

In addition, lower prices in the coming years may also spur further acquisitive activity, Fitch adds, as “lower valuations present strategic consolidation opportunities, particularly in the still fragmented gold sector.”

Click here to access the full report.

The world’s major gold miners are showing signs of improvements when it comes to their ESG (environment, social and governance) performance, according to Metals Focus, which published its Gold ESG Focus 2023 report on Tuesday.

In this report, the UK-based consultancy attempted to make like-for-like comparisons for key ESG metrics across 17 major gold miners with annual data from 2014. The goal is to provide a better understanding of these companies from an ESG perspective alongside overall ESG trends in the gold mining industry.

Overall, the report pointed to several encouraging developments within the industry in 2022, highlighted by a 2% year-on-year decline in their combined scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This decrease, according to Metals Focus, is attributed to improvements in emission reduction initiatives and less reliance on fossil fuels.

In addition, the companies reported a 7% reduction in water withdrawals and a 3% decrease in water consumption in 2022. Water recycling rates also improved as companies continue to prioritize efforts to minimize their water consumption.

The report also found while payments to governments fell by 16% y/y to $8.1 billion, spending on community projects rose considerably by 37% to $373 million, showcasing a growth in community development initiatives.

“The 2% decrease in combined scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions in 2022, spearheaded by proactive industry initiatives and decreased fossil fuel reliance, is a promising sign for the future,” Sarah Tomlinson, director of mine supply at Metals Focus, commented.

“Although there was a dip in government payments, reflecting lower gold production and increased operational costs, we witnessed a 37% rise in community project investments, underscoring the industry’s dedication to fostering resilient and sustainable communities.

These challenges were among the many discussed at the conference where Van Zyl and SRK Consulting US corporate consultant in mine closure Jeff Parshley were featured speakers.

“Demand for battery minerals is driving much of the excitement in mining today, but that demand remains very volatile – making valuations and other planning decisions difficult,” said Van Zyl. “This volatility is a significant issue as the mining sector raises the bar to meet increasingly stringent requirements for environmental, social and governance (ESG) compliance.”

Substitution

A case in point has been the varying lithium price, ramping up sharply in anticipation of supply shortages – only to drop sharply as a result of lower Chinese demand and as possible substitutions were announced for EV batteries, Van Zyl noted.

 Among the competing technologies are sodium-ion batteries, which have been developed as a lower cost alternative to lithium-ion. With early implementation underway in China, forecasts suggest that as much as 12 percent of all new battery electric light vehicles will be powered by sodium-ion batteries by 2030.

“Another example can be found with cobalt, where the price rocketed from around $20,000 to $100,000 per tonne,” he said. “A chemical company then announced a way to reduce the cobalt required in a battery by 75%, which contributed to the price dropping to $40,000 in just a few months.”

There were also concerns that rare earths – another important contributor to permanent magnets used in EV applications – may be limited in their availability, and that these constraints would hold back production.

Quality technical input

“Similarly, a leading battery and EV manufacturer has just reported that it plans to use permanent magnets that do not require any rare earths,” he said. This volatility in demand and price is expected to continue as a function of rapid innovation in battery technology, which responds quickly to commodity price fluctuations.

This highlights the importance of high quality technical input to due diligence studies and regulatory filing requirements.

“It is also clear that the shift to responsible sourcing of these battery minerals will have an impact on the risk exposure of mining operations,” he said. “In addition to the local legal requirements for compliance with labour, health and safety laws, customers in regions like Europe and North America are increasingly sensitive to ESG issues.”

Artisanal mining

He noted, for instance, that mining companies operating in many African countries were starting to engage more constructively with the entrenched artisanal mining sector – much of which is classified as illegal. While artisanal mining is often associated with labour exploitation, poor safety standards and even links to criminal networks, it is also a substantial job creator.

Governments are looking to formalise these activities in ways that are more sustainable, and the private sector is currently exploring models of how this could be achieved.

Van Zyl reiterated that despite commodity price volatility – which makes it more difficult to predict demand, project pay-back durations and value predictions generally – there are technical best practice foundations upon which all good mining projects must be built.

“These have not changed, and include optimising capital and operating costs, implementing responsible mining and achieving zero harm,” he said. With more support from technology, mining is harnessing data more effectively to meet these growing demands – making mining more efficient and reducing its carbon footprint.

“Bodies like the World Association of Mining Lawyers play a valuable role in bringing the industry’s legal and technical minds together,” he said. “This is vital to address the risks and opportunities of an era in which technology is changing faster than we can adapt our mining systems and production.”

The study, the firms say, presents a groundbreaking analysis demonstrating that when mining haul trucks are automated, bigger is no longer always better.

Whittle Consulting modeled the net present value (NPV) of mining a representative copper ore body through four different scenarios, taking into account all facets of the mining value chain over an 18 year life-of-mine (LOM) horizon.

Key findings include:

• The modeled mine operating with a fleet of autonomous 40-ton haul trucks would realize a 31% greater NPV than if the mine were operated with a fleet of manually driven 100-ton off-road haul trucks;
• Autonomy significantly improved effective utilization by reducing truck downtime, standby, and operating delays to 5% of availability versus 20% for manual vehicles and;
• One theorized flaw in the small truck logic was the prospect of traffic congestion caused by the increase in the number of trucks operating in the mine, potentially overcoming the efficiency gains of small truck and automation. In the study’s simulations, such traffic congestion did not materialize.

“The industry has long debated whether mining economics shift to favor smaller trucks when autonomous,” said Gerald Whittle, CEO, Whittle Consulting in a media statement. “We’re excited to publish the first rigorous analysis that demonstrates that for most mines – the answer is yes.”

The study also concluded that converting an existing fleet of haul trucks to autonomous operations increased NPV irrespective of truck size. Both conclusions are consistent with industry experience and past studies, including Whittle Consulting’s 2018 Autonomous Haulage Report.

“This study is exciting because it clearly articulates one of the many ways in which autonomy is revolutionizing the global economy today,” Anthony Levandowski, CEO of Pronto said. “The results also illustrate why our strategy has been centered around making automation accessible to the majority of mines and quarries around the world that aren’t running the Ultra Class trucks that the legacy AHS providers have been focused on.”

Pronto had previously demonstrated the commercial benefits of an AHS capable of scaling down to the smallest trucks and smallest operations, and the Pronto-Whittle study substantiates that by identifying the specifics of why small trucks are favored when autonomous: lower maintenance costs, better fuel efficiency, faster haul speeds, narrower benches / steeper pit walls are possible, and better overall fleet utilization, among others.

The full report is here.

Legal advisers

Weil, Gotshal & Manges and Fasken Martineau DuMoulin were the top M&A legal advisers in the metals & mining sector during H1 2023 by value and volume, respectively, according to GlobalData’s latest Legal advisers league table.

An analysis of GlobalData’s financial deals database reveals that Weil, Gotshal & Manges achieved its leading position in terms of value by advising on $20.4 billion worth of deals. Meanwhile, Fasken Martineau DuMoulin led in terms of volume by advising on a total of 12 deals.

“Fasken Martineau DuMoulin was among the only two firms with double-digit deal volume in H1 2023. However, despite leading by volume, it lagged in terms of value and did not feature among the top 10 by value,” said Aurojyoti Bose, lead analyst at GlobalData.

“Meanwhile, Weil, Gotshal & Manges, despite advising on less than half the number of deals advised by Fasken Martineau DuMoulin, managed to top the chart by value due to involvement in big-tickets. Weil, Gotshal & Manges advised on a $19 billion deal, which helped it lead by value,” Bose said.

Herbert Smith Freehills and White & Case jointly occupied the second position in terms of value, by advising on $19.1 billion worth of deals each.

Meanwhile, Cassels Brock & Blackwell occupied the second position in terms of volume with 10 deals, followed by Allens with six deals, Bennett Jones with five deals, and Weil, Gotshal & Manges with four deals.

Financial advisers

BMO Capital Markets and Canaccord Genuity Group were the top M&A financial advisers in the metals & mining sector during H1 2023 by value and volume, respectively, according to GlobalData’s latest financial advisers league table.

An analysis of GlobalData’s financial deals database reveals that BMO Capital Markets achieved its leading position in terms of value by advising on $37 billion worth of deals. Meanwhile, Canaccord Genuity Group led in terms of volume by advising on a total of seven deals.

“BMO Capital Markets advised on four deals out of which two deals were valued more than $15 billion. The involvement in these mega deals helped it top the chart by value in H1 2023. Interestingly, BMO Capital Markets occupied the top position by volume as well in H1 2022 but lost it to Canaccord Genuity Group in H1 2023,” Bose said.

BMO Capital Markets occupied the second position in terms of volume with four deals, followed by Red Cloud Securities Inc with four deals, Haywood Securities with four deals and Allenby Capital with three deals.

Meanwhile, Lazard occupied the second position in terms of value, by advising on $20 billion worth of deals, followed by Bank of America with $19.6 billion while Centerview Partners and JP Morgan jointly occupied the fourth position with $19.1 billion each.